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Key issues facing the UK by sdfwerte

VIEWS: 6 PAGES: 35

									Politics and the Environment

31 July 2008


Julia.Clark@ipsos.com
020 7347 3303
                       2




A Political Overview
Voting Intentions Jan 03 – July 08
(all certain to vote = 54% of electorate)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       3


How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

                            Howard elected                                                                         2005 General
                              (Nov 03)                                                                                                                                                                                        Brown elected
                                                                                                                     Election                                                                                                    (Jun 07)
50
                                                                                                                                            Cameron elected                                                                                                                                                             (47%)
                                                                                                                                               (Dec 05)
40

30                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (27%)

20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        (15%)
10

 0
     Jan-03
              Mar-03
                       May-03
                                Jul-03
                                         Sep-03
                                                  Nov-03
                                                           Jan-04
                                                                    Mar-04
                                                                             May-04
                                                                                      Jul-04
                                                                                               Sep-04
                                                                                                        Nov-04
                                                                                                                 Jan-05
                                                                                                                          Mar-05
                                                                                                                                   May-05
                                                                                                                                            Jul-05
                                                                                                                                                     Sep-05
                                                                                                                                                              Nov-05
                                                                                                                                                                       Jan-06
                                                                                                                                                                                Mar-06
                                                                                                                                                                                         May-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sep-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Nov-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               May-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sep-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      May-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul-08
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month                                                                                                                                                                                                                Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Leads and error margins
                                                                                                                     4

                                         General election ’05
 Labour lead

                    20
                                     (Labour majority of 66 seats)

                    10

                                                                                                         Est. Labour
                    0                                                                                    lead required
                                                                                                         for a Labour
Conservative lead




                                                                                                         overall
                    10                                                                                   majority
                                                                                                         Est. Cons’ve
                    20                                                                                   lead required
                                                                                                         for a Cons’ve
                                                                                                         overall
                    30                                                                                   majority

                    40
                      Jan    Jul    Jan    Jul    Jan    Jul    Jan    Jul    Jan    Jul    Jan    Jul
                     2003   2003   2004   2004   2005   2005   2006   2006   2007   2007   2008   2008
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
                                                                                                               5


 Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing
   his / her job as Prime Minister?
                                                                                 Net       Net change
                                        % Dissatisfied   % Satisfied         satisfaction from June 08



   David Cameron                                         29             50         +21             +1




          Nick Clegg                                     23        32               +9              0



  Gordon Brown                                    72             21                 -51            -3




 The Government                                   77             18                 -59            -7

 Base: 1,016 British adults 18+, 18th-20th July                              Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
     Net satisfaction with new Prime Ministers:
     Thatcher/Major vs. Blair/Brown                                                                                                              6


                   Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing
                     his / her job as Prime Minister?
                         60
                                            NEW PM                MAJOR / BROWN
                         40THATCHER            /
Net satisfaction




                            BLAIR                                                 GE 1992
                                                                                                    BLACK WEDNESDAY

                         20


                           0
                                                    Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

                        -20



                        -40

                                         GEN. ELEC            DONATIONS
                                        SPECULATION            SCANDAL
                        -60
                   Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month                                                    Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
                                  Note: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face
                                  methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
             Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders
             (1994 – 2008)                                                                                                                 7


                  How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way …
                  is doing his job as…?
                    40

                    30
                             BLAIR

                    20
Net satisfied %




                    10

                     0
                                          CAMERON
                                                                        Number of months from becoming leader
                    -10

                    -20
                                              HOWARD                                   HAGUE

                    -30

                    -40
                                        DUNCAN SMITH
                                                                               Note: methods change for Cameron; see below
                    -50
         Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3rd week of the month                                  Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
                        Note: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face
                        methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
                  8




The Environment
    Annual aggregate 2007
    Pollution/environment: Social class                                                                   9



     % who say pollution / environment is an
      important issue facing Britain
       24
       22
       20
       18
       16
       14
       12
       10
        8
        6
        4
        2
        0
           AB                C1                    C2                                 DE
                                  Social Class

Base: 8,848 GB adults, 18+                       Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: Annual aggregate 2007
    Annual aggregate 2007
    Pollution/environment: Age                                                                                 10



     % who say pollution / environment is an
      important issue facing Britain
        24
        22
        20
        18
        16
        14
        12
        10
         8
         6
         4
         2
         0
         18-24               25-34   35-44         45-54             55-64                 65+
                                             Age

Base: 8,848 GB adults, 18+                             Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: Annual aggregate 2007
    Annual aggregate 2007
    Pollution/environment: Age                                                                                 11



     % who say pollution / environment is an
      important issue facing Britain
  24                                                                         The Independent
                                                                          The Scotsman
  22
                                                          The Guardian
  20
  18                                                              The Herald
                                                The Times
  16                                                              (Glasgow)
  14
                                                        Daily Telegraph
  12                                  None of these
  10                                            Evening Standard
                     DailyExpress Other Daily Star
   8       The Mirror
   6 Daily Record         Daily Mail The Metro
                  Financial Times
   4
     The Sun
   2
   0

Base: 8,848 GB adults, 18+
                                    Regular readership
                                                       Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: Annual aggregate 2007
 Issues facing Britain: June 2008
                                                                                                         12

What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?
What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?
                                                                                      % Change since
                                                       Top mentions                      Jan ‘08
                Crime/Law and Order                                              38          -9
                                  Economy                                   32              +12
        Race relations/immigration                                          30              -10
                          Inflation/Prices                             22                   +14
Defence/Foreign affairs/Terrorism                                     20                      0
                          NHS/Hospitals                               19                    -14
                    Education/ Schools                           16                          -2
                       Petrol prices/fuel                       16                          +11
                                    Housing                   12                             +3
 Base: 995 British adults 18+, 12th – 17th June 2008                                    Source: Ipsos MORI
    Issues Facing Britain: Long Term Trends
                                                                                13


    Q    What do you see as the main / other important issues facing
         Britain today?

    80                              NHS
    70
                                             Defence   Crime/
    60                                                 Law & Order
    50
    40
                                                                Economy
    30
                                                                 Race
    20                                           Education       relations/
    10                                                           immigration

     0
           97

           98

           99

           00

           01

           02

           03

           04

           05

           06

           07

           08
         19

         19

         19

         20

         20

         20

         20

         20

         20

         20

         20

         20
 ay

      ay

      ay

      ay

      ay

      ay

      ay

      ay

      ay

      ay

      ay

      ay
M

    M

    M

    M

    M

    M

    M

    M

    M

    M

    M

    M
                                                               Source: Ipsos MORI

Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+
    Issues Facing Britain: Since 1997
                                                                         14


    Q    What do you see as the main/other important issues facing
         Britain today?

    40
    35
                                                               Economy
    30
    25
    20
    15
                                                              Environment
    10
     5
     0
           97

           98

           99

           00

           01

           02

           03

           04

           05

           06

           07

           08
         19

         19

         19

         20

         20

         20

         20

         20

         20

         20

         20

         20
 ay

      ay

      ay

      ay

      ay

      ay

      ay

      ay

      ay

      ay

      ay

      ay
M

    M

    M

    M

    M

    M

    M

    M

    M

    M

    M

    M
Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   15


 Q            Do you think that the general economic condition of the
              country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the
              next 12 months?
   40
            +28
                                                                                                             Index (get better minus get worse)
   20


     0
                                                                                                                                              -4

  -20


  -40

                                          -46
  -60
                                                                                                                        -56                                                                                                                                                    -64
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (July 08)
  -80
                                                                                                                                             May '02


                                                                                                                                                                 Mar '03




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar '05
                             Nov '97




                                                                               Nov '99




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov '06
                                                                                                                         Jul '01
                                       Apr '98




                                                                                         Apr '00




                                                                                                                                                                           Aug '03




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Aug '05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Apr '07
         Jan '97
                   Jun '97




                                                           Jan '99
                                                                     Jun '99




                                                                                                                                                                                     Jan '04
                                                                                                                                                                                               Jun '04




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan '06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jun '06
                                                 Sep '98




                                                                                                   Sep '00
                                                                                                              Feb '01




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Sep '07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Feb '08
                                                                                                                                   Dec '01


                                                                                                                                                       Oct '02




                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct '04
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month                                                                                                                                                                                     Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
 Environmental vs. Economic concerns
                                                                                                                                   16

 Q Here are some statements about the balance between economic
   and environmental considerations. With which one of these do you
   agree most?



                                                                                          }
        Protect the environment at all costs                                                        In 1997, 38% thought
                                                                          14%                       the environment was
        regardless of economic
        considerations                                                    14%                        more important than
        Most attention to environmental                                       24%                       the economy.
        considerations, some to economic                                   16%                          Now, 30% do.

        Equal attention to both                                                                     48%
                                                                                                       58%
        Most attention to economic                                  10%
        considerations – some to
        environmental                                              5%
        Protect the economy at all costs,                        2%
        regardless of environmental
        considerations                                            5%                                            1997
                                                                2%                                              2008
        Not interested / Don‟t know
                                                                1%
Bases: 2008: All adults 18+ in England (1,719); 1997 (DETR survey): All adults 18+ in England & Wales (1,782)     Source: Ipsos MORI
                 17




The good news:
people do care
People DO worry about climate change
                                                                                         18


Q       How concerned, if at all, are you about climate change,
        sometimes referred to as global warming?

                                               No opinion
                        Not at all concerned
               Not very concerned             3%3%
                                        12%
                                                                  Very
                                                                  concerned
                                                            44%



                           Fairly
                           concerned    38%
                                                      82%
Base: 1,002 GB adults 16+ August 2006                                   Source: Ipsos MORI
  …And few think the threat is exaggerated
                                                                                             19



 Q And to what extent do you agree or disagree that too much fuss
   is made about climate change nowadays?

                                                     Strongly agree
          Strongly disagree
                                                9%
                                                            Tend to agree
                                                     13%

                                        48%                3% Neither agree
                                                              nor disagree


                                         75%         27%
                                                           Tend to disagree
Base: 1,002 British adults, 25-27 August 2006                               Source: Ipsos MORI
                           20




The bad news: there is
still a lot of confusion
    about the facts
  Scale and timing are issues
                                                                                                       21



 Q How much effect, if any, do you think climate change will have
   on you personally? And on future generations?

             A great                Quite a            Not very     No effect     Don‟t
             deal                   lot                much         at all        know
                       Personally                                 Future Generations
                           *%                                           *%
          60%                                                             2%
                          9% 9%                                        8%

                                      29%
                                                                   36%          53%
                    51%



Source: DfT, August 2006 NS Omnibus. Base number = 1,218
                                                                     89%              Source: Ipsos MORI
There is also confusion about the science
                                                                                                 22



Q I would like you to tell me if you agree or disagree that “many
  leading experts still question if human activity is contributing to
  climate change”

                                       Don‟t know         Strongly agree
              Strongly disagree                     9%   11%   56%
                                               7%

       Tend to disagree 14%


                                                            45% Tend to agree
                                              13%
                          Neither/nor
Base: 2,037 British adults, 14th – 20th June 2007                               Source: Ipsos MORI
   Confusion about the cause(s) of climate
   change                                                                                                                                    23



  Q           Do you think that climate change is...

                                                                2002            2006            2007


    Mainly caused by natural                                           9%
    processes                                                          9%
                                                                         12%
    Partly caused by natural                                                                                     41%
    processes and partly caused                                                                                  41%
    by human activity                                                                                                               55%
    Mainly caused by human                                                                                           44%
    activity                                                                                                          46%
                                                                                                     32%
    …or do you think there‟s no                               3%
    such thing as climate                                     3%
    change?                                                  1%
                                                                                                                            Source: Ipsos MORI

Base: 1,002 British adults 16+ interviewed by telephone, 25 th-17th August 2006 and 600 British adults 16+, 3-5 July 2007
   (Mis) perceptions of the public’s
   potential impact on climate change                                                                  24


    Q Which of the actions on this list, if any, do you think will do the
      most to help reduce climate change?
        Recycling                                                                         40%
                                                       7%
        Developing cleaner engines for cars                                         34%
                                                                              29%
        Avoiding creating waste in the first place                      22%
                                                                                33%
        Making fewer car journeys                                 17%
                                                            11%
        Using less electricity                                    16%
                                                                                      38%
        Taking fewer foreign holidays                       11%
                                                                  17%
        Walking or cycling                                10%
                                                        7%
        Using public transport                            10%
                                                        8%                                General
        Buying locally-grown food                      7%                                 public
                                                        8
        People having fewer children                 4%                                   Experts
                                                                          26%
Base: 2,031 GB residents 16+, 14-20 June 2007                                         Source: Ipsos MORI
 But people say they want to see
 Government action on the issue…                                                                     25


    Q     I would like you to tell me if you agree or disagree: “the
          government should take the lead in combating climate change,
          even if it means using the law to change people's behaviour”
                                                Don’t know
                       Strongly disagree
                                                                   Strongly agree
                                                7% 2%
                           Tend to
                          disagree                           27%
                                          10%

                 Neither/nor         11%
                                                                    70%


                                                    43%
                                                             Tend to agree
                                                                                    Source: Ipsos MORI
Base: 2,031 GB residents 16+, 14-20 June 2007
… and even say they’re willing to pay for it!
                                                                                                    26


 Q I am prepared to pay a little extra for products which meet higher
   ethical and environmental standards

                                   Disagree slightly
                  Disagree slightly                     4%        Agree strongly
                                                  10%
                                                               27%

    Neither agree nor                    19%
             disagree                                                67%


                                                         40%
                                                                Agree slightly
Base: 969 GB adults aged 15+ , 31 Aug – 06 Sep 2007                                Source: Ipsos MORI
                         27




 However – perhaps
not surprisingly – the
public’s responses to
   surveys cannot
 always be taken at
      face value
 For example, we think we have very good
 current eating habits…                                                                            28



 Q Would you say that what you normally eat is good for your
   health?
                                      Yes, very good
       Ireland                                                                               34%
       UK                                                                                    33%
       Netherlands                                                                     29%
       Sweden                                                                          28%
       Spain                                                                     22%
       France                                                                    22%
       EU 25                                                                    21%
       Italy                                                                    20%
       Germany                                                            15%

Source: Eurobarometer 64.3 2005. Base c1,000 interviews in each country
  But… England is one of the fattest
  European nations                                                        29




                       % Obese             % Overweight   % Obese
     Germany
      England
       Cyprus
        Czech
       Finland
       Malta **
      Slovakia
         Latvia
      Hungary
       Ireland
         Spain
       Greece
     Slovenia*
   Luxembour
    Estonia **
   Lithuania**
       Austria
      Belgium
  Netherlands
      Sweden
     Denmark
     France **
          Italy

                        Women                                       Men
Source: International Obesity Task Force
                             30




 Just because the public say
 they’d be willing to be taxed
        to help address
 environmental issues doesn’t
   mean they won’t vote for
  whoever next promises to
lower their taxes (e.g. London
       Mayoral Election)
                            31




And there is still a long
way to go on education
about the environment
 and climate change…
  International Comparisons
                                                                                                                   32


  Q Which of the following topics do you find the most worrying in
    your country?
                             “Environmental Issues”

         Australia                                              47%                      India              21%
          Sweden                                           41%              The United States              20%
          Canada                                          39%                            Brazil            19%
                                                                                  Great Britain           18%
            France                                   32%
                                                                                       Mexico            17%
        Germany                                    30%
                                                                                       Russia           16%
The Netherlands                                 27%
                                                                                       Turkey           15%
                Italy                         24%                                 South Korea          14%
Czech Republic                               23%                                       Poland       9%
              Spain                         21%                                      Argentina     9%
  Base: 4,405 general public respondents. April-May 2007, Global @dvisor Survey                   Source: Ipsos MORI
The challenge: Keeping the profile of
environmental issues high                                                 33



  Keeping politicians on side
    – If „green policies‟ like raised taxes are seen as vote losers, it
      will be difficult to keep politicians interested
    – The challenge is to keep the public engaged enough that
      politicians are „forced‟ to keep the environment on the
      agenda
  Keeping environmental issues relevant and accessible
    – People need to feel that they can make a difference, and that
      their actions mean something – what are they achieving?
    – They also need lots more information on the issues – from
      trusted sources and in a digestible format
  Working with the media?
SO….
                              34




         NEXT GE: Will the
        environment matter?


              YES –
       but not as much as
          other things
Thank you

julia.clark@ipsos.com

								
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