Advisor Confidence Slightly Impr

Document Sample
Advisor Confidence Slightly Impr Powered By Docstoc
					                                                                                   Contact: Lori Klash
                                                                                         301.296.5487
                                                                          lklash@rydexinvestments.com




                  Advisor Confidence Slightly Improved in July
                       Stock market outlook is more optimistic

July 30, 2007…Rockville, MD…Advisor confidence continued to improve in July,
according to Rydex AdvisorBenchmarking, Inc., an affiliate of Rydex Investments. The
Advisor Confidence Index (ACI) is a benchmark that gauges advisors’ views on the U.S.
economy and stock market.

Advisors Weigh in on Real Estate
In this month’s survey we asked advisors about their real estate market outlook. They
believe that the three main factors that have the greatest impact on the real estate market
are rising interest rates (65%), real estate demand (46%), and subprime lending issues
(40%). Advisors estimate that “the dynamics of supply and demand (of the real estate
market) will not reach equilibrium for a while” with half of the advisors thinking that the
real estate market will recover in one to two years and the other half estimating the
recovery period will be three to four years. Most of the advisors had made no changes to
their clients’ portfolios.

Stock Market Outlook is very optimistic
The ACI increased 1.60% in July to 115.24, up from 113.42 in June. The jump is largely
due to advisors’ positive assessment on the stock market. “With roughly 10% projected
profit growth for the S&P500 in the next twelve months, investors are betting that
historically high margins will expand even further,” commented one of the survey
participants. The biggest concern for advisors is “the weakening dollar and high energy
prices, both of which may conspire to raise interest rates. Rising interest rates would
hurt U.S. equities valuations and exacerbate the downturn we are experiencing in
housing,” commented another survey participant.




Three out of four elements used to calculate the ACI increased in July. Advisors were
most positive about the stock market outlook, which was up 5.78%. A closer look at the
components reveals the following:
                         Current economic outlook                               +1.81%
                         Six-month economic                                     +0.63%
                         outlook
                         12-month economic outlook                               -1.50%
                         Stock market outlook                                   +5.78%




                                Rydex AdvisorBenchmarking.com
                                   Advisor Confidence Index

 130
 125                                                           123.88
 120                        115.52
                                                                         116.11            115.24
 115                                        118.11
                                                               112.50              111.55
       110.27          109.85
 110                             114.78              113.54                             113.42

 105          106.17

 100
  95
          Ju


          A




                                                        Ja




                                                            M




                                                                                                        Ju
          Se


          O


                                       N


                                                D




                                                            Fe


                                                            M


                                                            A




                                                            Ju
            ug




                                                             ay
                                        ov


                                                ec




                                                              pr
            ct




                                                              ar
                                                          n-
             l-0




                                                                                                           l-0
             p-




                                                               b-




                                                               n-
               -0




                                                                -0
               -0




                                                                 -0
                                                  -0




                                                                 -0
                                          -0




                                                                  07


                                                                  07




                                                                  07
                06
                6




                                                                                                              7
                 6




                                                                   7
                                                                   7
                  6




                                                                    7
                                                    6
                                            6




Advisor vs. consumer confidence
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had bounced back in May,
reversed course in June. The Consumer Confidence Index stood at 103.9, down 3.80%
compared to a 1.68% increase for the advisor index.
                  Advisor Confidence Index vs. Consum er Confidence Index


 130                                                                  123.88
                                          114.78113.54118.11                        116.11
 120                                 115.52                                    112.50           113.42
          106.07 110.27    109.85
 110                106.17                                                          111.55
                                                               110.3 112.5
                                                     109.00                     107.2         108
 100      105.7 106.5 99.6 104.5 105.4                                                  104         103.9
                                       102.9
  90
  80
  70
       Jun-     Jul-   Aug- Sep-     Oct-    Nov-    Dec-      Jan-   Feb-     Mar- Apr- May- Jun-
        06       06     06   06       06      06      06        07     07       07   07   07   07

                                                                                              ACI           CCI
Notable comments from participating advisors
Most of the advisors who participated in the survey have elected to have their names
made available to reporters who would like to interview them about their economic
sentiments. AdvisorBenchmarking can facilitate such interviews for reporters.

“Can current profit margins be maintained? With roughly 10% projected profit growth
for the S&P500 in the next twelve months, investors are betting that historically high
margins will expand even further—closer to 10% net. They may in the short-term,
however a reversion to the historical range of 5.5%-7.5% is likely at some point since high
margins breed competition.”                    -- Bill Ramsay, Financial Symmetry Inc

“We plan to cut exposure to the U.S. stock market for our clients in the near future. Our
biggest concern is the weakening dollar and high energy prices, both of which may
conspire to raise interest rates. Rising interest rates would hurt U.S. equity valuations
and exacerbate the downturn we are experiencing in housing.”
                                     -- Frederick Wright, Smith & Howard

“The speculative frenzy which launched almost one year ago continues. While we do not
yet see signs of a potential recessionary bear market, we do believe that a significant
correction driven by systemic de-leveraging is very possible. Credit market stress, as well
as the likelihood that REIT's and Utilities are in early stages of bear markets, suggest that
broad index strength is masking a growingly soft underbelly. We continue to maintain
speculative trading positions but also carry insurance via inverse positions in weakening
sectors and owning the Japanese Yen.”                                           -- James
Dailey, TEAM Financial Managers

“Historical seasonal trends will keep the market from moving much higher as we enter
the most difficult months July through September. As we enter the fourth quarter in
October, the media will call to remembrance the 20-year anniversary of the Crash of
1987 with a "Where were you?" theme. New cash coming into the market during this
period along with seasonal trends including fall calendar months and third year of the
presidential election cycle will be the wind at investors’ backs.”
                                     -- Kenny Landgraf, Kenjol Capital Management LLC

“The major indices are somewhat stretched—nearly two standard deviations above their
four-year trend lines. This represents a level where previous corrections have started. It
is possible that a blow-off rally occurs before another correction occurs.”
                                   -- Michael Sadoff, Sadoff Investment Management LLC

“We remain defensively overweighted in short-term, high quality fixed-income in order
to shield the portfolio's gains from a potential market correction and/or increased
market volatility. Our "win by not losing" philosophy guides us to be more defensive
following an unsustainable growth run up.”
                                   -- Rob Siegmann, Financial Management Group

About Rydex AdvisorBenchmarking, Inc., an affiliate of Rydex Investments
Rydex AdvisorBenchmarking is a research and analysis center focused on the registered
investment advisor (RIA) marketplace. Every year through its survey web site,
www.AdvisorBenchmarking.com, the firm conducts multiple surveys of advisors,
covering a host of business management and investment management practices. The
findings and analysis of the data are then released to the marketplace as annual studies,
quarterly research notes and monthly newsletters. The service is aimed at helping
advisors grow and enhance their firms by comparing how their businesses fare against
other advisors. Advisors also learn best practices of the most successful advisors in the
business. AdvisorBenchmarking is an affiliate of Rydex Investments.

The analysis on Rydex AdvisorBenchmarking.com is based on the number of completed
surveys and reflects only information from those surveys. This information is intended
to be general, and these overviews are no substitute for professional, legal or
consulting advice. This information should not be construed as advice from Rydex
Investments or any of its affiliates.
                                          ###