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Against the early indications, the past season has been one of relative plenty and generally declining costs of grain and feed raw materials but the focus is now turning more toward new crop supply prospects. So far these look fairly promising for consumers.
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Digital Re-print - March | April 2010
Feature title: Global feed markets - March | April 2010
Grain & Feed Milling Technology is published six times a year by Perendale Publishers Ltd of the United Kingdom.
All data is published in good faith, based on information received, and while every care is taken to prevent inaccuracies,
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COMMODITIES
March - April 2010
GLOBAL Chronos BTH introduces new hygienic bagging system
A
t P o w t e c h 2 01 0 , Chronos BTH is an EHEDG features closed bag-top transport; processing modules are
GRAIN & FEED MARKETS Chronos BTH is
presenting its recently
member and has established an quick and simple cleaning; fast
in-house hygiene task force to change-over times; and minimised
combined to form a
compact integrated unit
Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews developed hygienic open-mouth devise and implement machine dust emission. • Zone layouts within the
world trading conditions which are impacting the full range bagging system. design guidelines specific for the Furthermore, the bagging machine route cables to
of commodities used in food and feed production. His Food Industry. system is available in full integral control centres at
observations will influence your decision-making. With this new machine design, The EHEDG is a professional stainless-steel versions and the rear of each module
Chronos BTH has responded association with the objective of is an ATEX compliant design. Chronos BTH is a single source
to the growing demand from promoting hygienic conditions Optional nitrogen purging is supplier delivering integrated
the Food Industry for hygienic during the processing and also available. weighing, bagging, palletising and
Supply outlook
The (this packaging of foodstuffs and During bag transportation the load securing systems. Chronos
machines and systems.aheadnew year’s sown to the all-important US maize crop, about 5% However, not all the US crop was so affected by
crossed for better times
system concept by developed re co m me of ing was e line s bag-top remains closed and the or by storage of at Powtech 2010,
area is estimated wasthe International Grains ndwhich g uidstill lying under snow as we went the weather BTH is exhibitingdamp grain so this
Despite the in accordance to the EHEDG for hygienic machine design control to add separated from stage, expected to amount to a big
Council to be up by 1.1%). Consumption on to press but this is not expected area is up to is not, at this Nuremberg, Germany (April 27-29,
the functional bagging hole
the other hand, is notEngineering and there more national andtonnes, in the context of a zone: in the US ending stock figure, let alone a
(European Hygienic growing much according to than 2m or 3m 2010) in Hall 9, booth number 326.
stalemate between
remains encouraging
• There are no reason to
& nothing on the horizon yet to suggest a big record 334m tonne crop. The more important fasteners, push up forward prices. What it may
is Design Group) guidelines. international legislation. The
for the lower do, or M to InforMatIon:
equipment now may be the extent to which example boltshowever, isoredrive more importers into
rebound in world wheat import trade – which issue is being refined
buyers and sellers screws in the the arms Chronos BTH countries
fell quite sharply last season due to better crops quality specifications in our last issue reduces product of other exporting GmbH if these
for the enhanced we mentioned
flow and its Ina Wronkowitz
in the Mid-East/North Africa. All this suggests feed value to compounders in the USzones big are able to supply better quality than the USA,
required by the Baby Food
since late last year, • All material contact parts Marketing Assistant
packaging sector. in Asia. Low test weights, vomitoxin and including Brazil and Argentina. Fortunately, the
wheat prices will stay flat through 2010, even if markets
Reisertstr 21
A
The new dust-proof, may well are sanitary welded
the futures markets are promising premiums other issuespatented lower the ‘usable’ crop South Americans (see below) are getting bigger
53773 Hennef, Germany
EU prices have been gainst the early indications, the next month or two onward. The important into the new crop, late-year positions. filling technology • The machine exterior has
bottom-upand/or require more volume of grain to be fed than expected crops this year and are already
Tel: +49 2242 93350
the past season has been Mid-east/North African importing region has also guarantees to livestock to get the a polished finish
The coarse grain price outlook is also high accuracies during normal results in animal keen sellers at competitive prices of maize as
Fax: +49 2242 9335186
edging down and one of relative plenty and had timely, abundant rains while a probable record • Indiv dual ach ne
favourable for consumers. Markets continue process. gain (the same applies to corniethanol, m they ienter their main harvest period.
the filling weight The machine Email: wroi@premiertech.com
generally declining costs of crop is on the way in India, now expected to re-join to brace for a possible late downward revision starch, sweetener and other industrial uses too). A little further forward, markets are trying
there is talk of more grain and feed raw materials but the the list of net exporters after a two-year absence.
focus is now turning more toward new On balance then, wheat yield prospects look good
price declines on crop supply prospects. So far these look and the crop should be large again. In fact, with the
the way in coming
fairly promising for consumers.
Although low prices have cut many of the key
exporters’ winter wheat sowings, the overall area
big carryover stocks, total supply should be even
bigger than last season’s, offering the prospect of
yet more surplus stock buildup by the end of the
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36 | march - april 2010 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy Grain &feed millinG technoloGy march april 2010 | | 9
march - - april 2010 37
COMMODITIES
to work out how much maize the US will sow Interestingly, the US – the world’s largest not stop the banks and institutional investors on 2008’s 26.7m). Table 1: Wheat production outlook
this year. Some preliminary data from the US grain supplier - by far, is not making full use of talking up grains and other commodities as long Good yields last 2009/10 2010/11
Department of Agriculture in the past month the extra land it could sow this year. USDA sees term investments. There is also the chance that year still produced Exporters
suggests acreage will be higher than last year’s planted area of 247.3m acres for the eight major tension over Iran could boost crude oil prices a decent crop of
EU 138.7 143.4/144
but that yields are unlikely to repeat the peak field crops versus last year’s 248.9m and 2008’s (already up this month). That could reignite the 138.7m tonnes
levels seen then. Two months away from the 253.1m. This is despite a further 2.5m acres corn ethanol sector where many pundits are (151.2m) which, Russia 61.7 57/58
main sowing period, some analysts are also being released from conservation programmes. already claiming that new US renewable fuel amid flat domestic USA 60.3 54/55
getting concerned about record snowfall taking With about 6m less winter wheat acres, there is guidelines promise more growth in demand demand and falling Canada 26.5 24/25
a long time to melt and threatening to keep a lot of spare land that could be planted to maize, than expected earlier. Time will tell. But in the exports will leave Australia 21.7 22/23
fields too soggy to work and plant in some of soya, spring wheat or the other coarse grains. meantime, speculators, having been bitten by the EU with a large
Ukraine 20.9 19
Lower than expected prices and last year’s commodity price crash, might not be stock of at least 17m
Kazakhstan 16 14
higher costs – it seems – are quite so ready to rush into another boom that attention turn to prospects for 2010/11 tonnes to carry into
having an effect in restraining could again turn out to be a bubble. Certainly season’s supplies. So far the pointers are the new season. The IGC’s preliminary forecast Argentina 8 12
US sowing intentions. However, economic indicators are hardly bullish. Despite encouraging with the IGC predicting sown is for a 143.4m tonne EU crop this summer.
the real picture will not emerge stronger GDP growth in the US, China and area just 0.8% below last season’s at 221.8mn This trend is backed by the French analysts Key others
until planting time, when market India, the broad financial markets remain hectares – enough to produce a crop close to Strategie Grains which forecast the soft wheat China 114 109
prices offered by competing paranoid about a ‘double dip’ recession amid 660m tonnes with normal weather. Last year’s component at 134.7m tonnes – about 5m more India 80.6 80/82.0
crops and, of course, the the problems of Euro-zone sovereign debt – output was estimated by the IGC at 675m than produced last year. These estimates may Pakistan 24 23
weather, will have the final indeed US debt too. A slow economy may not and by USDA at 677m and that was plenty even under-rate the crop in the light of bigger
N Africa 20.1 17.4
say. Either way, US yields have be good news for meat producers that depend big enough, driving stocks up to almost 200m sowing increases estimated recently by some
Near East 37 37.5
tended to increase over the long on healthy consumer spending power but it tonnes – their highest level in several years. EU member states, including Spain, Germany,
term and that underlying trend may at least hamper speculators’ attempts to Ideas that EU farmers might respond the UK and parts of east Europe.
– along with the efficiency of double grain and feed prices - as they helped to disappointing wheat prices with lower Despite the stalemate between buyers and Early 2010 world crop pointers provided
the new GM varieties of maize to do in 2007/08. plantings have been laid to rest by recent sellers since late last year, EU prices have been by the IGC and others are shown in the table
and soyabeans and the old adage estimates showing the reverse trend. The IGC edging down and there is talk of more price below. The USA might do a little better than
‘rain makes grain’ may help to Commodity highlights - is forecasting total European wheat area at declines on the way in coming months as new forecast if it sows more spring wheat area
deliver adequate US crops again 26m hectares against last year’s 25.7m (if down crop prospects start to firm up. to compensate for very low winter wheat
Agritech 90x132.ai 3/14/2010 11:28:26 AM
in 2010. Wheat supplies loosen further,
Whereas maize supplies
are adequate and wheat
prices choppy
burdensome, soyabeans may
be verging on a glut situation
WORLD wheat prices have swung both
ways in the past month or two, buffeted by
Agritech South Africa
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14 – 16 June, 2010
of two markets. Last year’s indicators and uncertain signals from linked Royal Agricultural Society, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa
record US crop is disappearing markets like maize and soyabeans. However,
fast – largely thanks to record the underlying trend remains bearish, You are invited to attend the
demand from China. However, reinforced by still growing estimates of world
the full weight of massive South wheat supplies and the heavy competition
American harvests is about to these are creating on an export market Melbourne’s Etihad Stadium will be host to Australasia’s Leading Milling Forum in 2010.
hit the world market soon and diminished this season by bigger crops in key The emphasis of the conference will be to challenge existing industry practices
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damper than usual spring – for the third year large Chinese purchases. However, as export at $302/tonne fob terms versus $274 in early What’s New & Unique government bodies
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running. Yet again the risk arises that the world’s demand switches to South America now, we January, marking a 15-week high. US hard Don’t miss this outstanding opportunity - mark your diary today!
largest maize supplier may have trouble getting can probably expect more downward price red winter bread wheat has also firmed up, Etihad Stadium Supported by:
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its crops in on time and in meeting the forecast pressure on Chicago futures and on cash quoting $206/tonne versus a low of $195 in
acreage. Doubtless this will, at some stage, get markets for US and South American meal. early February. However, soft wheats remain April 13–15, 2010
Agriculture & Environmental South African Chamber of
For more info contact the Organiser:
the speculators excited (if it actually transpires). Where the more valuable, higher protein soya under pressure from large export supplies The Biennial Conference organised by -:
The Flour Millers’ Council of Australia
Affairs KZN Commerce & Industry
However, after two years that started under market goes, the other oilmeals like rape and from all the major suppliers and are likely to The Stock Feed Manufacturers’ Council of Australia, and
The Australian Technical Millers’ Association
Media Partner:
often dire ‘washout’ conditions for planting – sunflower will have to follow. remain an anchor on wheat prices overall for Email: conference@flourmillers.com.au
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which didn’t prevent bumper yields and record As at the start of 2010, there seems very the months ahead. Fax: 61 3 9819 1477
Tel: +971 4 3406888 Fax: +971 4 3403608
crops - the commercial trade will probably not little for the speculators to get their teeth into As the first grain harvested in the northern Email: winnie@alfajer.net
over-react to this. – certainly in the short/medium term. This will hemisphere, wheat is already seeing the trade’s
www.agritechsouthafrica.com
38 | march - april 2010 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy Grain &feed millinG technoloGy march - april 2010 | 39
Naturally ahead
plantings after delays to corn harvest made it
too late to sow some wheat crop on the same
That will all change over coming years as it
develops port infrastructure directed at the
that was still lying under snow as we went to
press (though what has been harvested recently 8 - 10 July 2010
land. Spring wheat prices are trading at good big Asian markets including some of the those has seen some surprisingly high yields) and partly Jakarta Convention Center
premiums for the higher qualities but whether viewed by the US, Australia and Canada as because of ongoing problems with quality from
this is enough incentive to raise area remains some of their safest customers like Japan, the a damp 2009 harvest. As mentioned in our last Indonesia
Biomin P.E.P. MGE ®
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Australia’s forecast crop increase for next in recent seasons
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improve after a few years of drought were Sea’ exporters can Naturally ahead in phytogenics!
broken in 2009. So far this is appears to be consistently set a
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happening. Most countries are getting normal grueling pace for
to good weather apart from Canada and China their expor ting
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that needs to be watched. India – the first
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2.5m tonnes. frosts and summer droughts - Russia and the recent weeks, many US trade reports suggest • Continuous release
others certainly have the land expand as well that more of the lower quality grain has to be
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storage and less wastage. Russia also believes it If this is as widespread as some maintain, this
While crops in the former Soviet countries can become a major exporter, not just of feed could reduce the effective size of the usable
were reduced last year by lower yields in Russia grade and soft milling wheats but of harder crop, leading to lower than expected US stocks
and smaller planted area in the Ukraine (partly quality varieties. Clearly this will be a factor at the end of the season on August 31.
offset by more sown in Kazakhstan), this region to watch in the future as it may help keep long Ethanol demand for maize had a boost from active ingredients
still produced a huge crop for the second year term wheat prices down for heavily export- new US government guidelines on renewable
running, at 113.7m tonnes, only 2m less than the dependent markets, including the EU. energy which appear to strengthen the green
record 2008 out-turn. End-season stocks are fuel’s longer term demand outlook, although
likely to continue building up within this region Maize shrugs off speculative the effect may be softened over time by the
at 23m tonnes by July compared with 18.5m greater inclusion in ethanol feedstocks of
last season and just 12.3m the year before. pressures other raw materials including plant waste. US
Although consumption in the FSU countries Many of the banks and investment houses ethanol production is also running at higher
is edging up all the time, this still leaves a big have continued to make a case for longer than expected levels and ahead of government
surplus for exports which these countries likely term strength in the maize/corn market targets, which may also reduce US end-season
to exploit to the full. as consumption
Wheat trade from the region is led by Russia, outpaces
forecast to export 18m tonnes this season – production and
just shy of its 2008/09 record 18.4m and more stocks and stock/
than double what it used to ship in earlier years. use ratios get
Russia would probably be exporting even more ever tighter. The
this season, were it not for internal transport past season has
and port logistical restrictions. However, it supported this as
means to tackle these in a big way over the world total demand
next few years, pumping millions of roubles into for the grain has run
export infrastructure to raise its globile profile. about 35m tonnes
Russia, like Ukraine and Kazakhstan, has up on the year,
already shown itself a force to be reckoned exceeding the 2009/10 crop by about 12m stocks by more than expected.
within the traditionally contested markets of tonnes (after this grew by only 6m tonnes). Looking to 2010/11, US ethanol use will
the Near East and North Africa where it enjoys World stocks at the close of the season will clearly continue to rise while feed demand
freight cost advantages over most of its rivals fall by like amount but will still be higher than for corn might expect some increments as www.indofisheries.org
from its ability to ship through the Black Sea in the six seasons prior to 2008/09. the worst of the economic recession passes
and out past Turkey into the Mediterranean. Maize prices have recently been better in the USA and among some of its global Supported by Media Partner Organised by PT. Napindo Media Ashatama
Jl. Kelapa Sawit XIV Blok M1 No. 10
However, it has not, until recently, set its supported than wheat, partly because of maize customers. So will US supply keep up? P
A R
T E
M
E
Kompleks Billy & Moon
DE
sights on the bigger markets further afield. uncertainties about the 5% of the 2009 US crop At this stage, the next US crop is wide open Pondok Kelapa, Jakarta, 13450
A NN
P E
A s i a P a c i f i c
Indonesia
R
IN
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D U S T
Ministry of Directorate General of Ministry of Ministry of Trade Indonesian Exhibition
Telp. +6221 8650962, 8644756/85
Marine Affairs Livestock Services,
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Industry Companies Association Fax. +6221 8650963
and Fisheries
For more information, please visit:
Email: info@indofisheries.org
40 | march - april 2010 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy info@biomin.net www.pep.biomin.net
COMMODITIES
to ‘guesstimates’ but some early pointers a result, are expected to more than halve as 40m. In world terms, the bigger 2009/10
from the USDA and from the trade suggest from last year’s 6m to their lowest level for soyabean crop is equal to at least 35m tonnes
another 2m to 4m acres could be added to several years. of extra oilseed meal, maybe as much as 40m,
the production base, provided the weather Overall, growing demand and perhaps although not all will be crushed this season,
is normal at planting time. Given a favourable limited scope for world crop expansion some sold for human food use, quite a bit
growing season too, output could expand might see maize prices better supported as stored up for the subsequent season. USDA
to a new record level and just about keep 2010 wears on but the key factor will be US is currently forecasting a mere 10m tonne rise
up with the projected higher demand. At weather over the next six months. in the crush to cover the anticipated increase
this stage, however, there is some concern The IGC meanwhile expects world barley in global demand but clearly a lot more beans
VIV Europe 2010
about the crop going late again with record area to decline by 1.2% to 55.4m ha, with can and will be processed for the feed sector
snowfall yet to melt in large swathes of the falls in the EU and FSU. The EU itself may if the demand is there. On the US markets,
Midwest and a long-range forecast for a wet see a substantial drop of 7%, to 12.9m ha, soya meal prices have already dropped by
spring. On the one hand the US might seem as farmers switch to wheat and rapeseed, 20% since 2010 started and, despite the firm
very unlucky if it had a planting washout/ especially from winter plantings in France and dollar/weak euro situation, this trend has
holdup for an unprecedented third year in a Germany. The cold winter in Europe is also been reflected across the EU market too.
row. Yet these events did not prevent large, likely to delay spring barley sowing, leading Now that the Brazilian and Argentine crops
if late crops at the end of the season – even to some switching to alternative crops or are being harvested, the pressure is starting
a record crop for 2009, so maybe this factor even to set-aside. to increase for lower prices still.
is being over-rated by bullish interests.
On the world market maize prices have
been kept in check by quite heavy export
Russia’s winter barley area also declined
in favour of wheat but more winter barley
was sown in
Soya is not the only oilmeal in abundant
supply this season. World and European
rapeseed production is also running at
20 - 22 April
competition for the US at keen prices from Ukraine where the total including spring record levels and carryover stocks of this
Latin America and occasionally, eastern barley is forecast around 5.2m ha (5.1m.). oilseed will also be high at the close of this
Europe and some Asian sources. Crops In Canada, a small decline in spring barley season. These increases have far outweighed
in Brazil and Argentina both seem to be plantings is likely to be more than offset by the gradual erosion of alternative oilseed
turning out several million tonnes bigger than less crop abandonment than last year with supplies, like cottonseeds and groundnuts
expected so we can probably expect the harvested area seen at 3m ha (2.9m). in the world mix, pointing to a comfortable
world total production figure for 2009/10 to stock cushion all round as we move into latter 2 inspiring information platforms centred
rise soon, perhaps resulting in some loosening Soya boosts oilmeal supply 2010. The big question in coming months,
around innovation will be hosted:
in those ending stock figures. The pressure however, is whether the supplying countries
has been telling on the US where export
sales and shipments are actually running far
Soya meal is by far the world’s leading
oilseed protein fed to livestock, accounting for
can keep this up. At this stage, USDA is
suggesting a possible slowdown in US soya Eggs! Meat Safety
behind officially forecast levels, also pointing over two thirds of consumption in this sector crop expansion but many analysts think that
to looser ending stocks. and nearly five times as much as its closest current price ratios versus maize will see an
The IGC’s preliminary estimate for world rival, rapeseed meal. Even in Europe, where even bigger crop sown for 2010. What the
maize plantings in 2010/11 is +1.4% at 154.5m the choice of alternative oilseed meals is South Americans might sow next autumn is
ha (152.3m.) with increases outside the US greater from domestic or imported rapeseed down to where prices go in the meantime but
as well, in the FSU and S America. However, and sunflower meals, soya, with its higher if the historical trend continues, one might
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EU area could drop slightly to about 8.4m. protein and other attributes, grabs a hefty expect soya’s higher income for farmers to
60% market share of all keep the acreage rising there too. Europe and
for free entrance
oilmeals consumed. Where Canada are meanwhile forecast to sow large
soya prices go, the broader rapeseed crops again.
oilmeal market, then, has Demand for oilmeals, on the other hand,
at www.viv.net
to follow. It’s therefore is only seen rising this season by about 8m or
good news for consumers 9m tonnes. As usual, the largest increase is in
in Europe and overseas that China (+3.3m) followed by Europe (+1.2m).
in recent weeks the price Apart from India (+0.6m), the rest of the
of soya has been coming forecast increase is spread over a whole host
down amid a massive influx of large and smaller consuming countries on
of new crop supplies. The
US 2009 crop turned out
the assumption that world feed demand will
respond to some gradual GDP growth and
See the latest. Know the latest. Select Utrecht in 2010
ha. (8.5m.) due to low prices, cuts in France bigger than expected at 91.5mm tonnes, a pickups in per capita meat consumption as
and Italy. This suggests EU supply will remain new record high and up by almost 11m from global recession eases. Clearly there is more The place-to-be to find the most inspiring innovations in future
in relatively tighter balance as the last crop last year. The Latin American harvests have than enough oilmeal to go round and, short
dipped by 7m tonnes to 55.8m whereas meanwhile exceeded even the most optimistic of some major weather problem in the US farming in 2010. VIV Europe is the meeting place for international
consumption fell only 4m to 60m (due to forecasts, currently promising a combined or Europe this summer, no reasons on the
lower feed use). Seasonal ending stocks, as gain of at least 34m tonnes, possibly as much radar for prices to rise. top decision makers in the animal protein industry.
42 | march - april 2010 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
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• Designing bagging
• Roller Mill lines to meet
• Contact the GFMT Team
Grinders
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Advantages, limitations
- Specifying and
and how roller mill
designing bagging lines
grinders are changing
for the food processing
for the better
industry
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