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For past climate change, see paleoclimatology and geologic temperature record.
Global mean surface temperature difference relative to the 1961–1990 average
Comparison of ground based (blue) and satellite based (red: UAH; green: RSS) records of temperature variations since 1979. Trends plotted since January 1982.
Mean surface temperature change for the period 2000 to 2009 relative to the average temperatures from 1951 to 1980. 
Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected
continuation. Global surface temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) between the start and the end of the 20th
century.[A] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of
the 20th century was very likely caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gasesresulting from human activity such as fossil fuel burning
and deforestation. The IPCC also concludes that variations in natural phenomena such as solar radiation andvolcanic eruptions had a small cooling
effect after 1950. These basic conclusions have been endorsed by more than 40 scientific societies and academies of science,[B]including all of
the national academies of science of the major industrialized countries.
Climate model projections summarized in the latest IPCC report indicate that the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0
to 11.5 °F) during the 21st century. The uncertainty in this estimate arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas
concentrations and the use of differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions. Most studies focus on the period leading up to the year 2100.
However, warming is expected to continue beyond 2100 even if emissions stop, because of the large heat capacity of the oceans and the long lifetime
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, probably including expansion
of subtropical deserts.Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of
glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects include changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, species extinctions,
and changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, though the nature of these regional
variations is uncertain.
Political and public debate continues regarding global warming and what actions to take in response. The available options are mitigation to reduce
further emissions;adaptation to reduce the damage caused by warming; and, more speculatively, geoengineering to reverse global warming. Most
national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
1 Temperature changes
2 External forcings
o 2.1 Greenhouse gases
o 2.2 Aerosols and soot
o 2.3 Solar variation
4 Climate models
5 Attributed and expected effects
o 5.1 Environmental
o 5.2 Economic
6 Responses to global warming
o 6.1 Mitigation
o 6.2 Adaptation
o 6.3 Geoengineering
7 Debate and skepticism
8 See also
11 Further reading
12 External links
Main article: Temperature record
Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to different reconstructions, each smoothed on a decadal scale. The instrumental record and the unsmoothed annual
value for 2004 are shown in black.
The most common measure of global warming is the trend in globally averaged temperature near the Earth's surface. Expressed as a linear trend, this
temperature rose by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005. The rate of warming over the last half of that period was almost double that for the
period as a whole (0.13 ± 0.03 °C per decade, versus 0.07 °C ± 0.02 °C per decade). The urban heat island effect is estimated to account for about
0.002 °C of warming per decade since 1900.  Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F)
per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Temperature is believed to have been relatively stable over the one or two
thousand years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.
Estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the National Climatic Data Center show that 2005 was the warmest year since reliable,
widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late 1800s, exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by a few hundredths of a
degree. Estimates prepared by theWorld Meteorological Organization and the Climatic Research Unit show 2005 as the second warmest year,
behind 1998. Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest El Niño in the past century occurred during that year. Global
temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature
from 2002 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.
Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per
decade against 0.13 °C per decade). Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat
capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation. The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern
Hemisphere because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo feedback.
Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in warming
because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres. 
The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in
forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of
about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur.
External forcing refers to processes external to the climate system (though not necessarily external to Earth) that influence climate. Climate responds
to several types of external forcing, such as radiative forcing due to changes in atmospheric composition (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations),
changes in solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun. Attribution of recent climate changefocuses on the first
three types of forcing. Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and thus are too gradual to have caused the temperature changes
observed in the past century.
Main articles: Greenhouse effect and Radiative forcing
For more details on this topic, see Atmospheric CO2.
Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and earth's surface. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m 2).
Recent atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO2) increases. Monthly CO 2measurements display seasonal oscillations in overall yearly uptrend; each year's maximum occurs during
theNorthern Hemisphere's late spring, and declines during its growing season as plants remove some atmospheric CO 2.
The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower
atmosphere and surface. It was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in
1896. Existence of the greenhouse effect as such is not disputed, even by those who do not agree that the recent temperature increase is
attributable to human activity. The question is instead how the strength of the greenhouse effect changes when human activity increases the
concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F).[C] The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which
causes about 36–70 percent of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26 percent; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9 percent;
and ozone (O 3), which causes 3–7 percent.Clouds also affect the radiation balance, but they are composed of liquid water or ice and so
are considered separately from water vapor and other gases.
Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative
forcing from CO 2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. The concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and 148%
respectively since 1750. These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 650,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been
extracted from ice cores. Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years
ago. Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. Most of the rest is
due to land-use change, particularly deforestation. 
CO2 concentrations are continuing to rise due to burning of fossil fuels and land-use change. The future rate of rise will depend on uncertain
economic, sociological,technological, and natural developments. Accordingly, the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios gives a wide range of
future CO2 scenarios, ranging from 541 to 970 ppm by the year 2100 (an increase by 90-250% since 1750). Fossil fuel reserves are sufficient to
reach these levels and continue emissions past 2100 if coal, tar sands ormethane clathrates are extensively exploited.
The destruction of stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons is sometimes mentioned in relation to global warming. Although there are a few areas
of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduction of stratospheric ozone has a cooling influence, but substantial ozone depletion
did not occur until the late 1970s. Ozone in the troposphere (the lowest part of the Earth's atmosphere) does contribute to surface warming.
Aerosols and soot
Ship tracks over the Atlantic Ocean on the east coast of the United States. The climatic impacts from aerosol forcing could have a large effect on climate through the indirect
Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface, has partially counteracted global warming from
1960 to the present. The main cause of this dimming is aerosols produced by volcanoes and pollutants. These aerosols exert a cooling effect by
increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. James E. Hansen and colleagues have proposed that the effects of the products of fossil fuel
combustion—CO 2 and aerosols—have largely offset one another in recent decades, so that net warming has been driven mainly by non-
CO2 greenhouse gases.
In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, aerosols have indirect effects on the radiation budget. Sulfate aerosols
act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more
efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets.  This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of
raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight.
Soot may cool or warm, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot aerosols directly absorb solar radiation, which heats the
atmosphere and cools the surface. In isolated areas with high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface warming due to
greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds. When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower
surface albedo can also directly heat the surface. The influences of aerosols, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-
tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern hemisphere. 
Main article: Solar variation
Solar variation over the last thirty years.
Variations in solar output have been the cause of past climate changes, but solar forcing is generally thought to be too small to account for a
significant part of global warming in recent decades. 
Greenhouse gases and solar forcing affect temperatures in different ways. While both increased solar activity and increased greenhouse gases are
expected to warm thetroposphere, an increase in solar activity should warm the stratosphere while an increase in greenhouse gases should cool the
stratosphere. Observations show that temperatures in the stratosphere have been cooling since 1979, when satellite measurements became
available. Radiosonde (weather balloon) data from the pre-satellite era show cooling since 1958, though there is greater uncertainty in the early
A related hypothesis, proposed by Henrik Svensmark, is that magnetic activity of the sun deflects cosmic rays that may influence the generation of
cloud condensation nuclei and thereby affect the climate. Other research has found no relation between warming in recent decades and cosmic
rays. A recent study concluded that the influence of cosmic rays on cloud cover is about a factor of 100 lower than needed to explain the
observed changes in clouds or to be a significant contributor to present-day climate change.
Main article: Climate change feedback
Feedback is a process in which changing one quantity changes a second quantity, and the change in the second quantity in turn changes the
first. Positive feedback amplifies the change in the first quantity whilenegative feedback reduces it. Feedback is important in the study of global
warming because it may amplify or diminish the effect of a particular process. The main positive feedback in global warming is the tendency of
warming to increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, which in turn leads to further warming. The main negative feedback is that
according to the Stefan–Boltzmann law, the amount of heat radiated from the Earth into space increases with the temperature of Earth's surface and
atmosphere. Imperfect understanding of feedbacks is a major cause of uncertainty and concern about global warming.
Main article: Global climate model
Calculations of global warming prepared in or before 2001 from a range of climate models under the SRES A2 emissions scenario, which assumes no action is taken to reduce
emissions and regionally divided economic development.
The geographic distribution of surface warming during the 21 st century calculated by the HadCM3 climate model if a business as usual scenario is assumed for economic growth
and greenhouse gas emissions. In this figure, the globally averaged warming corresponds to 3.0 °C (5.4 °F).
The main tools for projecting future climate changes are mathematical models based on physical principles including fluid
dynamics, thermodynamics and radiative transfer. Although they attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplifications of the actual
climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer power and limitations in knowledge of the climate system. All modern
climate models are in fact combinations of models for different parts of the Earth. These include an atmospheric model for air movement, temperature,
clouds, and other atmospheric properties; an ocean model that predicts temperature, salt content, and circulation of ocean waters; models for ice
cover on land and sea; and a model of heat and moisture transfer from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere. Some models also include treatments
of chemical and biological processes. Warming due to increasing levels of greenhouse gases is not an assumption of the models; rather, it is an
end result from the interaction of greenhouse gases with radiative transfer and other physical processes in the models.  Although much of the
variation in model outcomes depends on the greenhouse gas emissions used as inputs, the temperature effect of a specific greenhouse gas
concentration (climate sensitivity) varies depending on the model used. The representation of clouds is one of the main sources of uncertainty in
Global climate model projections of future climate most often have used estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from the IPCC Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios(SRES). In addition to human-caused emissions, some models also include a simulation of the carbon cycle; this generally
shows a positive feedback, though this response is uncertain. Some observational studies also show a positive feedback. Including
uncertainties in future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate sensitivity, the IPCC anticipates a warming of 1.1 °C to 6.4 °C (2.0 °F to 11.5 °F) by
the end of the 21st century, relative to 1980–1999. 
Models are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the observed changes to those that the models project
from various natural and human-derived causes. Although these models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from
approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects, they do indicate that the warming since 1970 is dominated by man-made
greenhouse gas emissions.
The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates.  Current climate models produce a good
match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, but do not simulate all aspects of climate.  Not all effects of global
warming are accurately predicted by the climate models used by the IPCC. For example, observed Arctic shrinkage has been faster than that
Attributed and expected effects
Main articles: Effects of global warming and Regional effects of global warming
Sparse records indicate that glaciers have been retreating since the early 1800s. In the 1950s measurements began that allow the monitoring of glacial mass balance, reported
to the W GMS and the NSIDC.
It is usually impossible to connect specific weather events to global warming. Instead, global warming is expected to cause changes in the overall
distribution and intensity of events, such as changes to the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. Broader effects are expected to
include glacial retreat, Arctic shrinkage including long-term shrinkage of the Greenland ice sheet, and worldwide sea level rise. Some effects on
both the natural environment and human life are, at least in part, already being attributed to global warming. A 2001 report by the IPCC suggests
that glacier retreat, ice shelf disruption such as that of the Larsen Ice Shelf, sea level rise, changes in rainfall patterns, and increased intensity and
frequency of extreme weather events are attributable in part to global warming. Other expected effects include water scarcity in some regions and
increased precipitation in others, and changes in mountain snowpack.
Social and economic effects of global warming may be exacerbated by growing population densities in affected areas. It is expected that the health
benefits of climate change (e.g., fewer deaths from cold exposure) will be outweighed by negative health effects (e.g., increased levels
of malnutrition), especially in developing countries. A summary of probable effects and recent understanding can be found in the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report. According to this report, there is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic
Ocean since about 1970, in correlation with the increase in sea surface temperature (see Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), but that the detection of
long-term trends is complicated by the quality of records prior to routine satellite observations. The summary also states that there is no clear trend in
the annual worldwide number of tropical cyclones.
Additional expected effects include sea level rise of 0.18 to 0.59 meters (0.59 to 1.9 ft) in 2090–2100 relative to 1980–1999, new trade
routes resulting from arctic shrinkage, possible thermohaline circulation slowing, increasingly intense, in some locations, (but less frequent)
hurricanes and extreme weather events, reductions in the ozone layer, changes in agriculture yields, and ocean oxygen depletion. Increased
atmospheric CO 2 increases the amount of CO 2 dissolved in the oceans. CO2 dissolved in the ocean reacts with water to form carbonic acid,
resulting in ocean acidification. Ocean surface pH is estimated to have decreased from 8.25 near the beginning of the industrial era to 8.14 by
2004, and is projected to decrease by a further 0.14 to 0.5 units by 2100 as the ocean absorbs more CO 2. Heat and carbon dioxide trapped in
the oceans may still take hundreds of years to be re-emitted, even after greenhouse gas emissions are eventually
reduced. Since organisms andecosystems are adapted to a narrow range of pH, this raises extinction concerns and disruptions in food webs. One
study predicts 18% to 35% of a sample of 1,103 animal and plant species would be extinct by 2050, based on future climate projections. However,
few mechanistic studies have documented extinctions due to recent climate change, and one study suggests that projected rates of extinction are
Main articles: Economics of global warming and Low-carbon economy
Projected temperature increase for a range of stabilization scenarios (the colored bands). The black line in middle of the shaded area indicates 'best estimates'; the red and the
blue lines the likely limits. From IPCC AR4.
In a literature assessment, Smith and others concluded, with medium confidence,[D] that:
climate change would increase income inequalities between and within countries
a small increase in global mean temperature (up to 2 °C by 2100, measured against 1990 levels) would result in net negative market
sector impacts in many developing countries and net positive market sector impacts in many developed countries
the aggregate market sector impact (i.e., total impacts across all regions) of a small increase in global mean temperature would amount to
plus or minus a few percent of world GDP.
With high confidence, Smith and others concluded that a medium (2-3 °C) to high (above 3 °C) level of warming would result in more intense negative
impacts, and that net positive impacts would begin to decline and eventually become negative. They found that most studies showed aggregate net
damages at a global scale above a medium temperature increase, with further damages at higher temperatures.
Depending on underlying assumptions, studies of the economic impacts of a doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) from pre-industrial levels
conclude that this would have a slightly negative to moderately positive aggregate effect on the agricultural sector. This aggregate effect hides
substantial regional differences, with benefits mostly predicted in the developed world and strongly negative impacts for populations poorly connected
to regional and global trading systems.
A number of other sectors will be affected by climate change, including the livestock, forestry, and fisheries industries. Other sectors sensitive to
climate change include the energy, construction, insurance, tourismand recreation industries. The aggregate impact of climate change on most of
these sectors is highly uncertain.
Stern in 2007 assessed climate change impacts using the basic economics of risk premiums. He found that unmitigated climate change could result
in a reduction in welfare equivalent to a persistent average fall in global per-capita consumption of at least 5%. The study by Stern has received both
criticism and support from other economists (see Stern Review). The IPCC in 2007 concluded that "Aggregate estimates of costs mask significant
differences in impacts across sectors, regions and populations and very likely underestimate damage costs because they cannot include many non-
Responses to global warming
The broad agreement among climate scientists that global temperatures will continue to increase has led some nations, states, corporations and
individuals to implement responses. These responses to global warming can be divided into mitigation of the causes and effects of global
warming, adaptation to the changing global environment, and geoengineering to reverse global warming.
Main article: Mitigation of global warming
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an approach to mitigation. Emissions may besequestered from fossil fuel power plants, or removed during processing in hydrogen
production. When used on plants, it is known as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage.
The IPCC's Working Group III is responsible for crafting reports on mitigation of global warming and the costs and benefits of different approaches.
The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report concludes that no one technology or sector can be completely responsible for mitigating future warming.
They find there are key practices and technologies in various sectors, such as energy supply, transportation, industry, and agriculture that should be
implemented to reduced global emissions. They estimate that stabilization of carbon dioxide equivalent between 445 and 710 ppm by 2030 will result
in between a 0.6 percent increase and three percent decrease in global gross domestic product.
Mitigation of global warming is accomplished through reductions in the rate of anthropogenic greenhouse gas release. The world's primary
international agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the Kyoto Protocol, now covers more than 160 countries and over 55 percent of
global greenhouse gas emissions. As of February 2010, only the United States, historically the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases,
has refused to ratify the treaty. The treaty expires in 2012. International talks began in May 2007 on a future treaty to succeed the current
one. The 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference met in Copenhagen in December 2009 to agree on a framework for climate change
mitigation. No binding agreement was made.
There has also been business action on climate change, including efforts to improve energy efficiency and limited moves towards use of alternative
fuels. In January 2005 the European Union introduced its European Union Emission Trading Scheme, through which companies in conjunction with
government agree to cap their emissions or to purchase credits from those below their allowances. Australia announced its Carbon Pollution
Reduction Scheme in 2008. United States President Barack Obama has announced plans to introduce an economy-wide cap and trade scheme. 
Main article: Adaptation to global warming
A wide variety of measures have been suggested for adaptation to global warming, from the installation of air-conditioning equipment, to
major infrastructure projects, such as abandoning settlements threatened bysea level rise.
Measures including water conservation, water rationing, adaptive agricultural practices including diversification, construction of flood
defenses, changes to medical care, and interventions to protectthreatened species have all been suggested. A wide-ranging study of the
possible opportunities for adaptation of infrastructure has been published by the Institute of Mechanical Engineers.
Main article: Geoengineering
Geoengineering is the concept of planetary engineering applied to Earth: i.e. the deliberate modification of Earth's natural environment on a large
scale to suit human needs. An example is greenhouse gas remediation, which removes greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, usually
through carbon sequestration techniques such as carbon dioxide air capture. Solar radiation management reduces absorbed solar radiation, such
as by the addition of stratospheric sulfur aerosols or cool roof techniques. No geoengineering projects of significant scale have been
implemented, and detailed study has largely been the work of small numbers of scientists; but various significant institutions such as the Royal
Society and IMechE have recently suggested that further study is warranted. Their various externalities and other costs are seen as major issues, and
the idea or concern that one country could act unilaterally has also been raised.
Debate and skepticism
Main articles: Global warming controversy and Politics of global warming
See also: Scientific opinion on climate change, Climate change consensus, and Climate change denial
Per capita greenhouse gas emissions in 2000, including land-use change.
Per country greenhouse gas emissions in 2000, including land-use change.
Increased publicity of the scientific findings surrounding global warming has resulted in political and economic debate.  Poor regions, particularly
Africa, appear at greatest risk from the projected effects of global warming, although their emissions have been small compared to those of the
developed world. The exemption of developing countries from Kyoto Protocol restrictions has been used to justify non-ratification by the U.S. and a
previous Australian Government. (Australia has since ratified the Kyoto protocol.) Another point of contention is the degree to which emerging
economies such as India and China should be expected to constrain their emissions.The U.S. contends that if it must bear the cost of reducing
emissions, then China should do the same since China's gross national CO2 emissions now exceed those of the U.S. China has
contended that it is less obligated to reduce emissions since its per capita responsibility and per capita emissions are less that of the U.S. India,
also exempt, has made similar contentions.
In 2007–2008 Gallup Polls surveyed 127 countries. Over a third of the world's population was unaware of global warming, with people in developing
countries less aware than those in developed, and those in Africa the least aware. Of those aware, Latin America leads in belief that temperature
changes are a result of human activities while Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the Former Soviet Union lead in the
opposite belief. In the Western world, opinions over the concept and the appropriate responses are divided. Nick Pidgeon of Cardiff University finds
that "results show the different stages of engagement about global warming on each side of the Atlantic"; where Europe debates the appropriate
responses while the United States debates whether climate change is happening.
Debates weigh the benefits of limiting industrial emissions of greenhouse gases against the costs that such changes would entail. Using economic
incentives, alternative and renewable energy have been promoted to reduce emissions while building infrastructure.  Organizations such as the
libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and companies such as ExxonMobil have challenged IPCC climate change
scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter
controls. Environmental organizations and public figures have emphasized changes in the current climate and the risks they entail, while
promoting adaptation to changes in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions. Some fossil fuel companies have scaled back their efforts in
recent years, or called for policies to reduce global warming. Many studies link population growth with emissions and the effect of climate
Some global warming skeptics in the science or political communities dispute all or some of the global warming scientific consensus, questioning
whether global warming is actually occurring, whether human activity has contributed significantly to the warming, and the magnitude of the threat
posed by global warming.
Global warming portal
Glossary of climate change
Index of climate change articles
History of climate change science
^ Increase is for years 1905 to 2005. Global surface temperature is defined in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report as the average of near-surface
air temperature over land and sea surface temperature. These error bounds are constructed with a 90% confidence interval.
^ The 2001 joint statement was signed by the national academies of science of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, the People's
Republic of China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand,Sweden, and the UK. The 2005 statement added Japan, Russia, and
the U.S. The 2007 statement added Mexico and South Africa. The Network of African Science Academies, and the Polish Academy of Sciences have issued separate
statements. Professional scientific societies include American Astronomical Society, American Chemical Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of
Physics, American Meteorological Society, American Physical Society, American Quaternary Association, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic
Society, Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, European Academy of Sciences and
Arts, European Geosciences Union, European Science Foundation, Geological Society of America, Geological Society of Australia,Geological Society of London-
Stratigraphy Commission, InterAcademy Council, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, International Union for Quaternary Research, National Association of
Geoscience Teachers, National Research Council (US), Royal Meteorological Society, and World Meteorological Organization.
^ Note that the greenhouse effect produces an average worldwide temperature increase of about 33 °C (59 °F) compared to black body predictions
without the greenhouse effect, not an average surface te mperature of 33 °C (91 °F). The average worldwide surface temperature is about 14 °C (57 °F).
^ These confidence levels are Bayesian probabilities, and represent the degree of belief that Smith and his co-authors had in the validity of their
conclusions. As a percentage chance of the conclusion being correct: high confidence ranges 67-95%, medium confidence ranges 33-67%.
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Category:Global warming · Category:Climate change · Glossary of climate change · Index of climate change articles