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Part 1 Overview - Bren School of

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Part 1 Overview - Bren School of Powered By Docstoc
					ESM 595M Resource Productivity
   Bren School Seminar Winter 2008
        Ernst von Weizsäcker

      Introduction & Overview
           January 9, 2008
Step 1:
Google resource productivity, pictures
Step 2
Click Home
Now you are on the home page of
Harald Agerley,
ex CEO of Danfoss, Denmark
Step 3. Read, what he has to say:

The primary cause of the environmental problems the globe is
facing, is a considerable growth in global consumption over the
last decades. The population explosion and growing per capita
consumption have both contributed to this. And global
consumption will continue to grow in the coming decades.
Step 4: continue reading Agerley:


“Resource productivity (eco-efficiency) must
be radically improved in the decades to come
in order to avoid that the ongoing growth in
global consumption will lead to environmental
disaster.


To understand this, look at the
“Paul Ehrlich Equation” I = P * A * T”
         Step 5: understand
         I = P*A*T
    Often referred to as the Paul   Ehrlich Equation


I       impact on the environment resulting from consumption
P       population number
A       consumption per capita (affluence)
T       technology factor
    Step 6: Now go to Agerley’s

    Global Consumption Growth
    Calculator

(provided your browser is JavaScript enabled).

You can now calculate the necessary increase in resource productivity that
allows the world to survive the assumed consumption growth

Result: even very modest assumptions lead to a factor of 5 needed by 2050
A factor of 5 in the increase of resource
productivity is needed to arrive at a
sustainable world (with satisfactory
consumption levels) by 2050.


What does that imply for the “landscape” of
 environmental policy?

I suggest that in addition to the two classical agendas of
   conservation and pollution control we need a third big
   agenda of environmental policy: resource productivity.
               Old



  Nature             Pollution
Conservation          Control
                  New
                Resource
               Productivity




  Nature                      Pollution
Conservation                   Control
Pollution control came in with
Rachel Carson‟s Silent Spring, 1962
 „Poverty is the
biggest polluter“
 Indira Gandhi, 1972
   „Only the rich can
afford pollution control“
The convenient belief of industry and
states in the North, to legitimize ever
   more growth and consumption
The “proof” for this convenient belief:
The Kusnets curve of pollution
 The inconvenient truth is
    that this convenient
 paradigm no longer holds
for climate and biodiversity
Population
CO2-Emissions
                           Ecological Footprint of Nations 2000

                      10       9,57



                       8
                                          7,09
hectares per capita




                       6

                                                    4,26
                                                            3,91
                       4
                                                                         3,26
                                                                                  2,59
                                                                                           2,18
                       2                                                                               1,67
                                                                                                                    1,36
                                                                                                                                1,11
                                                                                                                                           0,67         0,5

                       0
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                       Source: Redefining Progress (San Francisco, Calif.) : Ecological Footprint of Nations 2004
So let us look at the
 climate challenge
Correlation between CO2 (blue) and (Antarctic)
temperatures (red) over 650.000 years
Correlation between CO2 concentrations, temperatures
and sea levels over the last 160.000 years
Also the US is
vulnerable
Sea level rise can take catastrophic speed!
 (after Michael Tooley. Global sea-levels: floodwaters mark sudden rise. Nature 342
                                (6245), p 20 - 21 1989)
    Freshwater lakes on Greenland
    during Summers 1992 and 2002



.
l
    Some say wind energy is the answer
But even in Germany it‟s still marginal


.
In America, many believe biofuels
will be the answer.

But biofuels can be

• an environmental nightmare
• economically problematic,
• socially disruptive
• Environmental nightmare (palmoil plantation)
Economically problematic:
Reducing one ton of CO2 using biofuels will cost roughly
100 Euros

- which is at least four times the price on the EU carbon
trade market




                                low            high estimates
Socially disruptive:
Mexican corn prices for tortillas doubled due to fuel demand
Renewable sources of energy are
nice and desirable. But they do not
solve the problem of global warming,
for a very long time to come!

What then?
         What else?
  Nuclear? Well, uranium prices just
increased 18 fold in 7 years! And insurers
    refuse to underwrite the full risks
   Carbon Capure & Storage?
 That„s doable but far too expensive for
         developing countries.
       What then?
I suppose that the real answer lies
           in efficiency!
Imagine a bucket
of water weighing
 twenty pounds.
How many
 kilowatt-
   hours
would you need to
 lift that bucket
  from sea level
 up to the top of
 Mount Everest?
                               1 kwh

Assuming that one Watt-
second (Ws) is equivalent to
one Newton-meter,

the answer is:

One quarter of a
kilowatt-hour!
(= 900.000 Ws)
We can increase efficiency for energy,
water and materials fourfold - or more!
Amory Lovins‟ “Hypercar”
    Amory Lovins‟ Rocky Mountain Institute




Energy efficiency
Energy efficiency in office buildings


                                    The Bren School,
                                    a Platinum
                                    LEED building




               Energy & water efficiency
From incandescent light bulbs to solid state lighting




                   Energy efficiency
  Matsuhita refrigerators:
steadily increasing efficiency
Reducing water use for paper production
Quadrupling resource productivity in textiles
Modern Japanese steel four times more resource efficient




                 Resource efficiency
From urban sprawl to high density cities




            Space and energy efficiency
Ratio of energy input per calorie output
Overcoming crazy logistics in strawberry yoghurt production
Let waves and electrons travel:
Video conferences replace business travel




                Resource efficiency
„Productivity“ is more than „efficiency“

                           Productivity refers
                           to networks and
                           cascades



   Efficiency
    is inside
      a box
In Japan,
the new
catchword
is the
“Cyclical
Economy”
            Energy intensity US and China

0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5                                         1980
0.4                                         1990
0.3                                         2002
0.2
0.1
  0
      North America                China
      Ratio China energy efficiency/
           US energy efficiency

1.6                               2002
1.4
1.2
  1
0.8
0.6    1980          1990
0.4
0.2
  0
                      1
       Energy Efficiency: Will China Just Run Away?
      (bars show China efficiency divided by US efficiency)

 3
                                                  2015?
2.5
 2
                                       2002
1.5
 1
              1980        1990
0.5
 0
           Cogeneration: Making Use of Waste Heat

60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
        Denmark          China            USA           Argentina

  Source: World Survey of Decentrealized Energy, 2005
Changing technological paradigms

                From 1990 –
Since 1850,     2050, resource
 labour          productivity
 productivity    should increase
 increased       10fold
 20-fold
The sixth Kondratiev: Resource productivity
           (after Charlie Hargroves, Brisbane, Australia)



                                                              Resource
                                                    Biotech
                                                              productivity,
                                                       IT
                                         TV, aviation,        renew. energy,
                                          computers,          system design,
                                                              remanufact.,
                                  Electricity,                green labels
                                chemicals,cars
                     Steel &
                    railroads

    Mechanization
 Labor poductivity rose in parallel with labor costs




       This suggests a strategy of actively elevating
energy prices in parallel with energy productivity increases

				
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