Welcome to the Machine: Integrating Modeling, Benchmarking and Savings Evaluation into a Program TQM Process
Greg Thomas, PSD Mike McQueeney, PSNH
Performance Systems Development, Inc
Industrializing the Energy Efficiency Production Process
• Our goal is to provide low cost rapid feedback at the contractor and building level that provides support for program level evaluation
– Program evaluation should be integrated with program management functions – Evaluation is a auditing function, and routine savings tracking is a bookkeeping function
• Apply the basic principles of Total Quality Management
– Plan, Do, Study, Act – Continuous feedback for process improvement
Performance Systems Development, Inc
The Total Quality Management Feedback Cycle for Efficiency Programs
Plan: Predict post retrofit performance Do: Implement retrofit or change in operations
Act: Adjust ongoing activities based on findings
Performance Systems Development, Inc
Study: Input actual energy use and test predictions
Feedback Cycle Time
• Faster feedback promotes a faster rate of evolution
– Walmart – Disney
• Examples from energy efficiency
– Billing analysis – Several year cycle, expensive, too late for use by installers and modelers – Run time meters – Fast but expensive, NY example – Demonstration case studies – Expensive and does not provide information on quality of installation – Re-auditing – Very expensive – Deemed savings based on realization rates – No real feedback, counting widgets
Performance Systems Development, Inc
Continuous Process Improvement
• Investigating outliers and trends
Performance Systems Development, Inc
Defining the Control Variable
• Predicted performance vs Predicted savings
– Tracking predicted performance allows for rapid feedback – Predicted performance captures variation and trends in both modeling and installation – Taking control of the building
• Is maximizing savings in the interest of the customer?
– Health impacts and integration with non energy investments – Home Performance with Energy Star
Performance Systems Development, Inc
Working to Reduce Variation
• True up of pre-retrofit model to actual bills • Flexible model that allows user to model what will actually be installed, not just limited measure set • Whole house approach – taking control of building systems
– Energy as a indicator of whole house performance
• Benchmarking as a bound for predicted performance • What is between the improvement and the meter?
– Shell improvement example – blower door
Performance Systems Development, Inc
What About Occupants?
• Reduced post retrofit impacts
– Setback example – No need to overcome poor performance
• Random effects vs trends
– Trends are as important as reducing variation
Performance Systems Development, Inc
Putting It all Together
• Modeling tool • Billing data • Program support
Performance Systems Development, Inc
Modeling Tool Features
• • • • True simulation Zone modeling Flexible measure creation Integrated fuel bill analysis and tracking
Performance Systems Development, Inc
Program Application Features
• Online browser based application with any time any where access to data and reports
– Client tracking – Work tracking – Savings tracking
• Different user types get different features and privileges
– – – – Auditor Utility Quality Assurance Evaluation and Program Tracking
Performance Systems Development, Inc
Supervisor: Contractor or WAP
Quality Assurance Provider: Ability to view workscopes/ratings for assigned customers Ability to make notes on results of XML review Ability to make notes on results of field Quality Assurance Provider
Management Reports and Approvals
Contractor or Agency Supervisor: Controls access for their modeling users Option to create customer records Option to reassign customers across their users Access to customer data for their customers only Tracking and savings reports for their customers Approval of workscopes Access to Quality Assurance reports
Inspection Results TREAT tracker Online Application
Fuel data in, Feedback out
Customer, Owner or Manager
Program Manager, HERS
Approvals, Invoicing, Results
Billing Data, XML Transfers, and Invoicing
Contractor, Rater, WAP
Program Manager or HERS Provider: Option to create customers Option to reassign customers Customer tracking reports Savings reports Evaluation reports including TRC and avoided costs Ratings reporting
Online Sources of Customer Fuel Use Information Online access to utility data or meters Third parties such as fuel oil suppliers
Performance Systems Development, Inc
TREAT User: Option to create online customer record Downloads pre-retrofit billing data Develops building model Trues up model to existing billing data Develops improvement package & rating Uploads rating, workscopes and savings Prints customer report Invoices for work completed Downloads post retrofit billing data Compares projections to actual Generates actual performance report
1
Contractor
Utility
Server
1. Client and billing data upload, job assigned.
7. Preliminary eval and progress reports
2. Message to contractor generated
3. Download billing data to TREAT 4. Modeling and workscope development 5. XML upload 6. WorkscopeDevelopment, Inc Performance Systems approval
8. Post retrofit billing data upload
9. Email to client Customer 10. Client data input and review 11. Messaging and data download 12. Report to client
2
Contractor
Utility
Server
1. Client and billing data upload, job assigned.
7. Preliminary eval and progress reports
2. Message to contractor generated
3. Download billing data to TREAT 4. Modeling and workscope development 5. XML upload 6. WorkscopeDevelopment, Inc Performance Systems approval
8. Post retrofit billing data upload
9. Email to client Customer 10. Client data input and review 11. Messaging and data download 12. Report to client
3
Contractor
Utility
Server
1. Client and billing data upload, job assigned.
7. Preliminary eval and progress reports
2. Message to contractor generated
3. Download billing data to TREAT 4. Modeling and workscope development 5. XML upload 6. WorkscopeDevelopment, Inc Performance Systems approval
8. Post retrofit billing data upload
9. Email to client Customer 10. Client data input and review 11. Messaging and data download 12. Report to client
Contractor
Utility
4 Server
1. Client and billing data upload, job assigned.
7. Preliminary eval and progress reports
2. Message to contractor generated
3. Download billing data to TREAT 4. Modeling and workscope development 5. XML upload 6. WorkscopeDevelopment, Inc Performance Systems approval
8. Post retrofit billing data upload
9. Email to client Customer 10. Client data input and review 11. Messaging and data download 12. Report to client
5 Utility
Contractor
Server
1. Client and billing data upload, job assigned.
7. Preliminary eval and progress reports
2. Message to contractor generated
3. Download billing data to TREAT 4. Modeling and workscope development 5. XML upload 6. WorkscopeDevelopment, Inc Performance Systems approval
8. Post retrofit billing data upload
9. Email to client Customer 10. Client data input and review 11. Messaging and data download 12. Report to client
6
Contractor
Utility
Server
1. Client and billing data upload, job assigned.
7. Preliminary eval and progress reports
2. Message to contractor generated
3. Download billing data to TREAT 4. Modeling and workscope development 5. XML upload 6. WorkscopeDevelopment, Inc Performance Systems approval
8. Post retrofit billing data upload
9. Email to client Customer 10. Client data input and review 11. Messaging and data download 12. Report to client
7
7
Utility
Contractor
Server
1. Client and billing data upload, job assigned.
7. Preliminary eval and progress reports
2. Message to contractor generated
3. Download billing data to TREAT 4. Modeling and workscope development 5. XML upload 6. WorkscopeDevelopment, Inc Performance Systems approval
8. Post retrofit billing data upload
9. Email to client Customer 10. Client data input and review 11. Messaging and data download 12. Report to client
8
Contractor
Utility
Server
1. Client and billing data upload, job assigned.
7. Preliminary eval and progress reports
2. Message to contractor generated
3. Download billing data to TREAT 4. Modeling and workscope development 5. XML upload 6. WorkscopeDevelopment, Inc Performance Systems approval
8. Post retrofit billing data upload
9. Email to client Customer 10. Client data input and review 11. Messaging and data download 12. Report to client
Contractor
Utility
Server 9 1. Client and billing data upload, job assigned. 7. Preliminary eval and progress reports
2. Message to contractor generated
3. Download billing data to TREAT 4. Modeling and workscope development 5. XML upload 6. WorkscopeDevelopment, Inc Performance Systems approval
8. Post retrofit billing data upload
9. Email to client Customer 10. Client data input and review 11. Messaging and data download 12. Report to client
Contractor
Utility
Server 10 1. Client and billing data upload, job assigned. 7. Preliminary eval and progress reports
2. Message to contractor generated
3. Download billing data to TREAT 4. Modeling and workscope development 5. XML upload 6. WorkscopeDevelopment, Inc Performance Systems approval
8. Post retrofit billing data upload
9. Email to client Customer 10. Client data input and review 11. Messaging and data download 12. Report to client
11
Contractor
Utility
Server
1. Client and billing data upload, job assigned.
7. Preliminary eval and progress reports
2. Message to contractor generated
3. Download billing data to TREAT 4. Modeling and workscope development 5. XML upload 6. WorkscopeDevelopment, Inc Performance Systems approval
8. Post retrofit billing data upload
9. Email to client Customer 10. Client data input and review 11. Messaging and data download 12. Report to client
Contractor
Utility
Server 12 1. Client and billing data upload, job assigned. 7. Preliminary eval and progress reports
2. Message to contractor generated
3. Download billing data to TREAT 4. Modeling and workscope development 5. XML upload 6. WorkscopeDevelopment, Inc Performance Systems approval
8. Post retrofit billing data upload
9. Email to client Customer 10. Client data input and review 11. Messaging and data download 12. Report to client
Adoption Issues
• Moving from prescriptive to modeling
– Training contractors – Educating policy and eval staff on path forward – Is the pain worth the gain?
• Interaction drives changes to SIR and expected improvement mix
– Realization rate impacts
• Utility billing data access
– Firewall issues – Confidentiality issues
Performance Systems Development, Inc
New Uses for Feedback
• Evolve into performance warranties • Target training based on installation activities and metered performance
– Focus on performance should increase attention to baseload measures – Secure low cost source of savings
• Benchmarking before and after
– Before – Guiding investment – After – As a bound on performance predictions
• Other?
Performance Systems Development, Inc
Other Advantages
• Integrated infrastructure development
– HERS – new and existing homes – WAP – Home Performance with Energy Star
• Enhances ability to do impact evaluation
– Impact evaluation as program advisor providing a more detailed examination of the data
Performance Systems Development, Inc
Sample screen from modeling tools showing onscreen comparison of base model to actual performance
Performance Systems Development, Inc
Sample Billing to Model Comparison
2500
kWh per Month.
2000
Actual Estimated from Model Estimated from Billing Analysis
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500
0
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Performance Systems Development, Inc
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Information on the site visit or program demographics for that client or building. Since the next stage has been started, this screen can not be edited.
Performance Systems Development, Inc
Proposed improvements from the TREAT XML upload. This includes information on the package as a whole and information on individual measures.
Performance Systems Development, Inc
Data import application to move client and billing data from inside a utility to the online application.
Performance Systems Development, Inc
As buildings change over time, the descriptions of the buildings can change, allowing the performance of this building to continue to be compared against similar buildings. The data shown here is based on multifamily requirements.
Performance Systems Development, Inc
Btus per Square Foot .
Ar
100000
150000
200000
250000
lin
50000
gt on
0
U rb an H or iz on s ne c a To w er s
Te r ra ce
Se 10 1 S 3r d R ed ev As so ci at es 48 th St re et lin ic Po lyc
41 442 4 W es t
Performance Systems Development, Inc
R ive rb en d H ou se M 47 th s ar cy 32 0 W es t C ar ol
Multifamily Buildings with Data in originally in Building data collected BenchMark local application and then entered into online BenchMark system.
Pl ac e St re G et ar H de DF ns C As so ci at es Ti vo li T ow er s R ive rV Pr ie os w pe ct To we 25 rs 08 Br oa dw So ay ut h Ha m ilt N on ob le M an si 23 on 94 7t h Av en ue
Contact Info
Greg Thomas President Performance Systems Development, Inc. www.psdconsulting.com www.buildingperformance.net gthomas@psdconsulting.com 607-277-6240 x201
Performance Systems Development, Inc