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					                                                          H
                                             Yellow cells o   Government carrying weight
                                                              Exports fail, Investments increase
                                               can be     w   Japan, without the great exports
              ASSUMPTIONS                      altered    c   Grow fast, deal with debt later v1
                                                              Quite likely given past UK performance
                                                              PBR 2009 predictions
                                             Ranking out      How cutting could increase the deficit
                                              of last 40
Household consumption growth rates:               yrs    0                   C               G           K
                                                         0 2008            £921         £313            £243
            in 2009                 -3.00%              0 2009             £893         £326            £204
            in 2010                 -1.50% 36 out of 39 # 2010             £880         £321            £204
            in 2011                 -1.75% 38 out of 39 # 2011             £865         £316            £204
            in 2012                 -1.50% 36 out of 39 # 2012             £852         £311            £204
            in 2013                 -1.25% 36 out of 39 # 2013             £841         £306            £204
            in 2014                 -1.25% 36 out of 39 # 2014             £830         £302            £204
            in 2015                 -1.25% 36 out of 39 # 2015             £820         £297            £204
            in 2016                   0.50% 31 out of 39 # 2016            £824         £303            £204
            in 2017                   1.50% 27 out of 39 # 2017            £837         £309            £204
            in 2018                   1.50% 27 out of 39 # 2018            £849         £315            £204
            in 2019                   1.25% 28 out of 39 # 2019
                                                         0
                                                                           £860         £322            £204

Other annual                                Ranking out     3.00%
growth rates for                             of last 35
2010-19                                          yrs     0  2.00%
Govt consumption                                                 1.00%
                                    -1.50% 35 out of 35 8
to 2015
                                                                 0.00%
Capital Investment                    0.00% 29 out of 35 #
                                                                -1.00%       2009

                                                                                      2010

                                                                                                 2011

                                                                                                             2012
Exports                               0.00% 35 out of 35 #
                                                                -2.00%
Imports                             -1.50% 35 out of 35 8
                                                                -3.00%
Govt Consumption
                                      2.00% 21 out of 35 #      -4.00%
2015 onwards
Government non                                                  -5.00%
                           2.00%                         0
cons spending                                            0

Other key results                                        0
                                                         0      160%                     Debt as % of GDP
Debt peaks in year      No peak yet!                     0      140%

Highest debt level        149.20%                        0      120%

                                                                100%
Deficit in 2015           -13.58%                        0
Household savings                                                 80%
ratio 2015                 5.03%                         0
                                                                  60%
Average growth
2010-15                   -0.79%                         0        40%
                                                                          2…
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Average growth
2015-19                    1.59%                         0

 GDP/head in 2019         £23,581                        0
Since government consumption is so low you ought to check
the household income figures are low                        0
                                                            0
                                                            0
                                                            0
                                                            0
                                                            0
                                                            0
                                                            0
                                                            0
                                                            0
ng weight
ments increase
                                                               Trying to explain how situations can arise where government cuts, but
 great exports                                                 because this leads to private sector cuts, GDP falls, revenues fall, and the
h debt later v1                                                deficit rises instead
ast UK performance                                                          Taxes
ns
 ncrease the deficit                                              Total      as %         Govt non-    Total
                                                               domestic        of         consumptio govt       Deficit Deficit (%
                              X            I          NX        demand GDP Taxes n spending spend                (£bn) of GDP)
                            £422        £459          -£37         £1,440    38.6%       £556       £274        £587     -£31     -2.16%
                            £386        £415          -£29         £1,394    36.9%       £514       £305        £631    -£116     -8.33%
                            £386        £409          -£23         £1,382    35.1%       £485       £347        £668    -£183    -13.22%
                            £386        £403          -£17         £1,368    36.2%       £495       £364        £680    -£185    -13.54%
                            £386        £397          -£11         £1,356    37.2%       £504       £372        £683    -£178    -13.15%
                            £386        £391          -£5          £1,347    37.7%       £508       £379        £686    -£178    -13.21%
                            £386        £385          £1           £1,338    37.9%       £507       £387        £689    -£182    -13.58%
                            £386        £379          £7           £1,328    38.5%       £511       £395        £692    -£180    -13.58%
                            £386        £374          £12          £1,344    39.1%       £526       £402        £706    -£180    -13.40%
                            £386        £368          £18          £1,368    39.5%       £540       £410        £720    -£179    -13.11%
                            £386        £363          £24          £1,392    40.0%       £557       £419        £734    -£177    -12.72%
                            £386        £357          £29          £1,415    40.0%       £566       £427        £749    -£183    -12.93%

                                                                                       0%
                                                                                             2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
                                                                                       -2%

                                                                                       -4%

                                                                                       -6%

                                                                                       -8%
                            2013

                                    2014

                                               2015

                                                       2016

                                                               2017

                                                                      2018

                                                                             2019




                                                                                      -10%

                                               Net Exports                            -12%
                                               Capital Growth
                                               Government Spending                    -14%                                            Deficit (RHS)
                                               Household spending                                                                     Govt receipts (LHS)
                                               Total GDP growth                       -16%                                            Govt spending (LHS)



       Debt as % of GDP                                               7%            Household savings ratio                       HH spending growth as % of
                                                                                                                          200%           GDP growth
                                                                      6%
                                                                      5%                                                  150%
                                                                      4%
                                                                      3%                                                  100%

                                                                      2%
                                                                                                                           50%
                                                                      1%
                                                                      0%                                                    0%
                       2…
                            2…
                                   2…
                                        2…
                                                2…
                                                       2…
                                                              2…




                                                                             2…
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                                                                                                                                 2…

                                                                                                                                         2…
Got to income ratios
government cuts, but
 s, revenues fall, and the
                                                                                                                          Contributions to
                                                                              Growth in
                              Govt              Govt                           C as as                         Househo
                        GDP   receipts          spending Deficit                % of     Debt as Debt          ld
                       growth (LHS)             (LHS)    (RHS)       Debt     growth in % of GDP peaked        spending
                                        38.6%      40.8%    -2.16%   £526     100.00%   36.53%
                        -3.20%          36.9%      45.2%    -8.33%   £629     93.84%    45.14% Still Rising    -1.92%
                        -0.86%          35.1%      48.3%   -13.22%   £797     173.49%   57.65% Still Rising    -0.96%
                        -1.02%          36.2%      49.7%   -13.54%   £962     171.86%   70.36% Still Rising    -1.11%
                        -0.85%          37.2%      50.4%   -13.15%   £1,117   175.96%   82.38% Still Rising    -0.95%
                        -0.69%          37.7%      50.9%   -13.21%   £1,268   181.18%   94.14% Still Rising    -0.78%
                        -0.69%          37.9%      51.5%   -13.58%   £1,419   182.14% 106.06% Still Rising     -0.78%
                        -0.68%          38.5%      52.1%   -13.58%   £1,564   183.12% 117.76% Still Rising     -0.78%
                        1.18%           39.1%      52.5%   -13.40%   £1,706   42.21%    126.94% Still Rising    0.31%
                        1.79%           39.5%      52.6%   -13.11%   £1,844   83.90%    134.77% Still Rising    0.92%
                        1.77%           40.0%      52.7%   -12.72%   £1,976   84.61%    141.92% Still Rising    0.92%
                        1.61%           40.0%      52.9%   -12.93%   £2,111   77.84%    149.20% Still Rising    0.76%

                                        60%
                   2017 2018 2019
                                        50%


                                        40%


                                        30%


                                        20%


            Deficit (RHS)
                                        10%

            Govt receipts (LHS)
            Govt spending (LHS)         0%



         HH spending growth as % of
                GDP growth
                       2…

                              2…

                                   2…

                                          2…
Got to income ratios
    Contributions to growth             RETURN
Governm
ent                           Total    Household Household
Spendin Capital Net           GDP      income as % income    Savings
g          Growth Exports     growth   of GDP      estimated ratio
                                         66.00%      £950     3.09%
 0.87%    -2.68%     0.54%    -3.20%     66.00%      £920     2.90%
 -0.35%    0.00%     0.45%    -0.86%     65.80%      £909     3.23%
 -0.35%    0.00%     0.44%    -1.02%     65.60%      £897     3.65%
 -0.35%    0.00%     0.44%    -0.85%     65.40%      £887     3.98%
 -0.34%    0.00%     0.44%    -0.69%     65.20%      £878     4.23%
 -0.34%    0.00%     0.44%    -0.69%     65.00%      £869     4.48%
 -0.34%    0.00%     0.43%    -0.68%     65.00%      £863     5.03%
 0.45%     0.00%     0.43%     1.18%     65.00%      £874     5.67%
 0.45%     0.00%     0.42%     1.79%     65.00%      £889     5.94%
 0.45%     0.00%     0.40%     1.77%     65.00%      £905     6.19%
 0.45%     0.00%     0.39%     1.61%     65.00%      £920     6.52%
Consumptio
n as % of
GDP
    85.69%    -£31    587    564
    87.44%   -£116   630.5   610   £938
    86.88%   -£183   664.5   651   £930
    86.30%   -£185           678   £920
    85.73%   -£178                 £913
    85.19%   -£178                 £906
    84.65%   -£182                 £900
    84.11%   -£180                 £894
    83.87%   -£180                 £905
    83.75%   -£179                 £921
    83.63%   -£177                 £937
    83.51%   -£183                 £952
          Change
          in
          consum
          ption


           -3.64%
           -1.28%
           -1.44%
           -1.28%
           -1.12%
           -1.12%
           -1.12%
            0.76%
            1.38%
            1.39%
            1.24%



-13.58%    -1.23%
How cutting could increase the deficit   11
         0                                0
         0                                0
         0                                0
       11                                14
       10                 -4.00%         16   -5.00%
       11                 -3.75%         22   -4.50%
       12                 -3.50%         22   -4.00%
       12                 -3.25%         22   -3.50%
       12                 -3.00%         22   -3.00%
       19                 -2.75%         22   -2.50% Description

        23                -2.50%         23   -2.00% Tory nirvanna

        23                -2.25%         23   -1.50%   Tory plan goes slightly wrong

                                                     Tory plan goes HORRIBLY
        22                -2.00%         22   -1.00% wrong


         0                -1.75%         0    -0.50% Emulates Germany
         0                -1.50%         0     0.00% Government carrying weight
                                                     Exports fail, Investments
         8                -1.25%         8     0.50% increase


        11                -1.00%         17   1.00% Japan, without the great exports

                                                    Grow fast, deal with debt later
        11                -0.75%         18   1.50% v1
                                                    Quite likely given past UK
         8                -0.50%         17   2.00% performance
        16                -0.25%         15   2.50% PBR 2009 predictions

                                                    How cutting could increase the
         0                 0.00%         0    3.00% deficit
         0                 0.25%         0    3.50%
         0                 0.50%         0    4.00%
         0                 0.75%         0    4.50%
         0                 1.00%         0    5.00%
         0                 1.25%         0    5.50%
         0                 1.50%         0    6.00%
         0                 1.75%         0    6.50%
         0                 2.00%         0    7.00%
         0                 2.25%         0    7.50%
         0                 2.50%         0    8.00%
         0                 2.75%         0    8.50%
0   3.00%   0    9.00%
0   3.25%   0    9.50%
0   3.50%   0   10.00%
0   3.75%   0   10.50%
0   4.00%   0   11.00%
0   4.25%   0   11.50%
0   4.50%   0   12.00%
0   4.75%   0   12.50%
0   5.00%   0   13.00%
                                                                                               Tory
                                                                                                plan
                                                                                     Tory      goes
                                                                                     nirvan   slightly
                                                                                  11 na       wrong



                                                                                         14     14
                                                                                         16     16
                                                                                         23     23
                                                                                         23     23
                                                                                         23     23
                                                                                         25     23
Commentary                                                                               27     23
The Conservative situation happens as ordered: exports grow faster, capital growth
booms                                                                                    32     24
Only a slight improvement in capital and export growth - leaves the debt still under
pressure as households are retrenching                                                   31     23
The UK's normal capital and exports performance. But weak households mean
that debt is not repaid, GDP is low, and actually they don't manage to get their
savings ratio higher in any case                                                         32     22
Because of a remarkable export performance, households rebuild their balance
sheets eventually and the government's debt peaks. Weak capital investment
stops it being the Tory Nivanna

More of a typical British boom: strong investments but exports grow more slowly
than imports                                                                              5      7
This is a real nightmare. Households retrench; capital grows slowly (which is
better than Japan); exports fail to deliver for structural reasons; government debt
explodes, GDP stagnates                                                                  25     20
Compare with the Japan scenario. Households and government grow more,
encouraging slightly higher capital growth. GDP much higher and savings ratio low
but manageable. The Keynesian answer?                                                    19     19

These figures are about middling for the uK, but with weak households.                   16     18
Taken from Table 1.12 in the latest PBR                                                  15     15

Trying to explain how situations can arise where government cuts, but because this
leads to private sector cuts, GDP falls, revenues fall, and the deficit rises instead
                                                             Grow     Quite             How
                                                              fast,   likely           cutting
Tory plan                                           Japan,    deal    given    PBR      could
goes                     Governme Exports fail,     without   with   past UK   2009 increase
HORRIBLY Emulates        nt carrying Investments   the great debt    perform predictio   the
wrong     Germany        weight      increase       exports later v1  ance      ns     deficit
                                   0           0       0        0        0       0         0
                                   0           0       0        0        0       0         0
                                   0           0       0        0        0       0         0
       14           14            20          14      14       19       17      17        11
       16           16            23          16      16       23       19      19        10
       22           21            25          21      21       25       24      24        11
       22           21            26          21      20       26       25      25        12
       22           23            27          23      21       27       25      25        12
       22           23            27          23      21       27       25      25        12
       22           23            29          23      21       28       26      26        19

       23           25           30          25      22       28       26       26       23

       23           24           30          24      21       31       25       25       23


       22           22           30          22      22       33       25       25       22


                                  0           0       0        0        0       0        0
                                  0           0       0        0        0       0        0

        8           7            17           7      11       15       13       7        8


       17           18           21          27      16       22       20       25       11


       18           25           20          18      20       20       19       21       11

       17           19           18          20      20       19       20       17        8
       15           15           15          15      15       15       15       15       16


                                  0           0       0        0        0       0        0
                                  0           0       0        0        0       0        0
                                  0           0       0        0        0       0        0
                                  0           0       0        0        0       0        0
                                  0           0       0        0        0       0        0
                                  0           0       0        0        0       0        0
                                  0           0       0        0        0       0        0
                                  0           0       0        0        0       0        0
                                  0           0       0        0        0       0        0
                                  0           0       0        0        0       0        0
                                  0           0       0        0        0       0        0
                                  0           0       0        0        0       0        0
0   0   0   0   0   0   0
0   0   0   0   0   0   0
0   0   0   0   0   0   0
0   0   0   0   0   0   0
0   0   0   0   0   0   0
0   0   0   0   0   0   0
0   0   0   0   0   0   0
0   0   0   0   0   0   0
0   0   0   0   0   0   0
                                                How to
                                  assumptions             THE MODEL
                                                 use it




Flags warning of funny results.
This spreadsheet enables the user to manipulate scenarios, based upon various variables: growth in
househould consumption, government consumption, investment, exports, imports, and so on.

It is NOT, therefore, the equivalent of an economic model: it does not present an argument for how the variables
interact with each other, except in the crude mechanical sense that they add up to make GDP

The basic principle is simple: Y (GDP) = C + G + K + (X - I)
Household income = a % of Y, so taking C from it gives you the household savings rate
Government income (taxes) is another % of Y, and combined with G etc tells you the deficit. Which then tells you
the debt
The starting value for the various variables comes from ONS figures, like "ABJQ Household final consumption
expenditure: National concept CP SA" and others.

Some crude assumptions are used to derive outputs like the household savings ratio. They include:
 - household income is about 66% of GDP. The user can let this decline, which is advisable if he/she enters a
very sharp government consumption cut in his/her assumptions
 - in 2008, the debt stands at abuot £530bn. I am not entering into discussions about what should count . . .
All these interesting results can be seen in graphical form

Enter your own assumptions about the pace of growth of the various variables, using the arrows (mostly)
Or choose from one or other of my entertaining scenarios, using the drop down box at the top
Note: you need to enable macros to let this last feature work.




To put assumptions in context
The crude method I used to demonstrate to the user how realistic - or otherwise - his assumptions might be is to
show the ranking of the variable he enters, compared to the last 39 years of UK data. In the case where people
are entering average growth rates for the next 5 years or more, I show where their assumed growth would rank
against past 5-year averages (which can be found on the sheet called 'UK record')


So, for example, if the user enters Capital growth of 6.5%, then it says "6 out of 35", because only 5 years have
had a better average growth rate (1986-9 and 1998)


To work out future deficits
I crudely assume that tax receipts rise as a % of GDP as set out in latest Budget. These figures can be changed
at the user's discretion. But if they are changed ambitiously it is up to him/her to modify his assumptions about
other variable that may knock on (e.g. household consumption: not likely to be very strong if taxes are 45% of

In terms of spending, I have some rather ugly assumptions about the rate of growth of government that is NOT
'government consumption'. The steady growth of this element can be altered if the user wants to.


Flags warning of funny results.
Cells go orange or red if results get strangely/worryingly bad. So, for example, if the household savings ratio
dives belo 2%. Or growth falls below a certain level.
Cell A32 also wakes up if you are cratering Government Consumption hard, reminding the user to cut household
income if he wants to remain realistic
              2.7%     1.8%       2.5%      4.1%     4.6%    5 year growth records
                  Governm
                  ent         Capital
       Household consump      expendit
       consumptio tion        ure      Export    Import
        n growth growth       growth   growth    growth
1971      3.2%        3.1%      -0.6%      6.92%     5.38%
1972      6.3%        4.6%      -1.2%      1.08%     9.92%
1973      5.5%        3.7%     19.5%      12.31%    11.18%
1974     -1.6%        2.0%      -7.4%      7.31%     1.01%
1975     -0.1%        5.7%     -12.6%     -2.96%    -6.59%
1976      0.5%        1.8%     11.6%       9.11%     5.16%
1977     -0.4%       -1.4%       1.6%      6.88%     1.92%
1978      5.4%        1.8%       1.4%      1.85%     3.73%
1979      4.4%        1.6%       3.3%      3.77%     9.64%
1980     -0.1%        1.6%     -15.2%     -0.30%    -3.53%
1981      0.2%        0.2%      -9.0%     -0.49%    -2.74%
1982      1.1%        0.7%     10.5%       1.11%     4.93%
1983      4.2%        1.8%     10.4%       2.01%     6.57%
1984      2.3%        1.2%       8.3%      6.74%     9.88%
1985      3.9%       -0.3%       3.6%      5.85%     2.52%
1986      6.4%        1.4%       2.4%      4.16%     6.87%
1987      5.5%       -0.1%       9.7%      5.86%     7.89%
1988      7.8%        0.2%     18.0%       0.60%    12.78%
1989      3.5%        1.0%       3.8%      4.56%     7.42%
1990      1.0%        2.2%      -6.1%      5.28%     0.56%
1991     -1.5%        3.0%     -10.7%     -0.16%    -4.41%
1992      0.4%        0.7%       2.2%      4.16%     6.76%
1993      2.9%       -0.7%       2.0%      4.49%     3.32%
1994      3.0%        1.1%       8.6%      9.18%     5.92%
1995      1.9%        1.3%       3.4%      9.45%     5.53%
1996      3.9%        0.7%       3.1%      8.78%     9.74%
1997      3.8%       -0.5%       8.5%      8.15%     9.71%
1998      4.3%        1.1%     13.8%       3.12%     9.27%
1999      5.2%        3.6%       3.6%      3.73%     7.92%
2000      4.7%        3.1%       2.0%      9.14%     8.95%
2001      3.1%        2.4%       3.2%      3.01%     4.78%
2002      3.6%        3.4%       1.6%      1.00%     4.90%
2003      3.0%        3.5%       1.7%      1.84%     2.16%
2004      3.0%        3.4%       5.0%      4.82%     6.85%
2005      1.9%        1.7%       2.3%      8.14%     7.05%
2006      2.1%        1.6%       6.0%     11.03%     9.63%
2007      3.0%        1.8%       8.1%     -4.52%    -1.85%
         2008      1.3%      2.0%     -4.3%     0.00%    -1.00%
         2009     -3.0%      4.6%    -16.4%    -6.43%    -9.25%




                            Governm
                               ent  Capital                        GDP
                 Household consump Investme                       Growth
Germany         consumption   tion    nt      Exports   Imports
  1996             1.56%     2.08%   -3.57%    6.05%     3.53%     0.99%
  1997             0.81%     0.50%    1.28%   11.71%     8.22%     1.80%
  1998             1.37%     1.80%    5.32%    7.96%     9.45%     2.03%
  1999             2.91%     1.15%    3.26%    5.94%     8.55%     2.01%
  2000             2.33%     1.37%    2.26%   13.53%    10.17%     3.21%
  2001             1.96%     0.53%   -7.84%    6.44%     1.23%     1.24%
  2002            -0.84%     1.47%   -9.14%    4.29%    -1.44%     0.00%
  2003             0.10%     0.38%    2.44%    2.46%     5.36%    -0.22%
  2004             0.08%    -0.71%   -0.31%   10.25%     7.28%     1.21%
  2005             0.24%     0.41%   -0.99%    7.67%     6.53%     0.77%
  2006             1.10%     0.62%    7.50%   12.69%    11.85%     2.96%
  2007            -0.40%     2.19%    5.01%    7.47%     5.03%     2.46%
Averages           0.93%     0.98%    0.43%    8.04%     6.31%     1.54%



                            Governm
                               ent  Capital                        GDP
                 Household consump Investme                       Growth
 USA            consumption   tion    nt      Exports   Imports
  1996            3.42%     0.47%     8.30%    8.38%     8.70%    3.75%
  1997            3.78%     1.27%    11.59%   11.89%    13.58%    4.55%
  1998            5.04%     1.69%     9.08%    2.42%    11.64%    4.22%
  1999            5.11%     3.34%     7.82%    4.31%    11.46%    4.49%
  2000            4.67%     1.89%     5.40%    8.74%    13.14%    3.69%
  2001            2.54%     3.20%    -6.13%   -5.44%    -2.71%    0.76%
  2002            2.74%     4.62%    -1.55%   -2.26%     3.40%    1.61%
  2003            2.76%     2.82%     3.19%    1.26%     4.07%    2.52%
  2004            3.65%     1.85%     8.07%    9.75%    11.32%    3.65%
  2005            3.05%     0.48%     4.91%    7.03%     5.93%    2.94%
  2006            3.05%     1.78%     1.90%    9.08%     5.96%    2.78%
  2007            2.79%     1.93%    -4.23%    8.45%     2.17%    2.02%
Averages          3.55%     2.11%     4.03%    5.30%     7.39%    3.08%



                            Governm
                               ent  Capital                        GDP
                 Household consump Investme                       Growth
France          consumption   tion    nt      Exports   Imports
  1996            1.57%     2.09%    -3.71%   3.67%     2.13%     1.11%
  1997       0.45%      1.25%    2.36%   12.91%     7.94%    2.24%
  1998       3.83%     -0.61%   11.68%    8.24%    11.64%    3.50%
  1999       3.47%      1.44%    7.53%    4.62%     6.69%    3.30%
  2000       3.61%      1.90%    9.36%   12.44%    14.93%    3.91%
  2001       2.53%      1.16%    0.24%    2.52%     2.18%    1.85%
  2002       2.21%      1.87%   -3.34%    1.47%     1.70%    1.03%
  2003       2.16%      2.00%    0.54%   -1.19%     1.15%    1.09%
  2004       2.60%      2.31%    6.60%    3.96%     7.10%    2.47%
  2005       2.64%      1.23%    4.38%    3.15%     5.95%    1.90%
  2006       2.32%      1.29%    3.96%    5.41%     6.12%    2.17%
  2007       2.47%      1.39%    5.58%    3.12%     5.51%    2.17%
Averages     2.49%      1.44%    3.76%    5.03%     6.09%    2.23%


                       Governm
                          ent  Capital                        GDP
            Household consump Investme                       Growth
Japan      consumption   tion    nt      Exports   Imports
  1996        2.89%     2.52%    3.49%    5.88%    13.37%     2.75%
  1997        0.79%     0.79%    0.00%   11.11%     0.51%     1.57%
  1998        1.79%    -1.09%   -8.64%   -2.71%    -6.84%    -2.05%
  1999        4.16%     0.86%   -2.88%    1.89%     3.61%    -0.14%
  2000        4.35%     0.91%   -0.12%   12.70%     9.19%     2.86%
  2001        3.00%     1.63%   -3.02%   -6.93%     0.63%     0.18%
  2002        2.39%     1.01%   -6.90%    7.51%     0.92%     0.26%
  2003        2.34%     0.29%   -2.23%    9.21%     3.89%     1.41%
  2004        1.86%     1.54%    1.23%   13.93%     8.12%     2.74%
  2005        1.56%     1.26%    3.29%    6.96%     5.81%     1.93%
  2006       -0.39%     2.00%    2.16%    9.54%     4.15%     2.40%
  2007        0.74%     1.47%    0.27%    8.64%     1.74%     2.08%
Averages      2.12%     1.10%   -1.11%    6.48%     3.76%     1.33%
5 year growth records


     Household Government        Capital
    consumption consumption    expenditure   Export
       growth      growth        growth      growth   Import growth




        2.7%            3.8%     -0.5%       4.9%         4.2%
        2.1%            3.6%      2.0%       5.4%         4.1%
        0.8%            2.4%      2.5%       6.5%         2.5%
        0.7%            2.0%     -1.1%       4.4%         1.0%
        1.9%            1.9%      1.1%       3.7%         2.8%
        1.9%            1.1%      0.5%       4.3%         3.4%
        1.9%            0.8%     -3.6%       2.3%         1.8%
        2.2%            1.2%     -1.8%       1.2%         2.4%
        2.0%            1.2%      0.0%       1.2%         3.0%
        1.5%            1.1%      1.0%       1.8%         3.0%
        2.3%            0.7%      4.8%       3.0%         4.2%
        3.6%            1.0%      7.0%       4.0%         6.2%
        4.5%            0.8%      6.9%       4.9%         6.7%
        5.2%            0.5%      8.4%       4.6%         8.0%
        5.4%            0.4%      7.5%       4.2%         7.5%
        4.8%            0.9%      5.6%       4.1%         7.1%
        3.2%            1.2%      2.9%       3.2%         4.8%
        2.2%            1.4%      1.5%       2.9%         4.6%
        1.2%            1.2%     -1.8%       3.7%         2.7%
        1.1%            1.3%     -0.8%       4.6%         2.4%
        1.3%            1.1%      1.1%       5.4%         3.4%
        2.4%            0.6%      3.8%       7.2%         6.3%
        3.1%            0.4%      5.1%       8.0%         6.8%
        3.4%            0.7%      7.5%       7.7%         8.0%
        3.8%            1.2%      6.5%       6.6%         8.4%
        4.4%            1.6%      6.2%       6.6%         9.1%
        4.2%            1.9%      6.2%       5.4%         8.1%
        4.2%            2.7%      4.8%       4.0%         7.2%
        3.9%            3.2%      2.4%       3.7%         5.7%
        3.5%            3.2%      2.7%       4.0%         5.5%
        2.9%            2.9%      2.8%       3.8%         5.1%
        2.7%            2.7%      3.3%       5.4%         6.1%
        2.6%            2.4%      4.6%       4.3%         4.8%
2.3%   2.1%    3.4%   3.9%   4.1%
1.1%   2.3%   -0.9%   1.6%   0.9%

				
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