20071120 Accomack Comp Plan Pres

							Comprehensive Plan Update
         2007
  Overview of the Draft Plan
Basic Contents:

• Executive Summary (new)

• Vision and Legal Basis (Chapter 1)

• Sources and Results of Data Analysis
  and Public Input (Chapters 1, 2, 3)

• Major Issues and Problems (Chapter 4)

• Goals, Policies, Actions, and Future
  Land Use Map (Chapters 5, 6)
  Basis:

• The Policies of the Updated Plan
  are based on Data Analysis and
  Public Input, as interpreted and
  refined by the Planning
  Commission

• The Plan addresses Changed
  Circumstances and Regional
  Growth Pressures
Many studies & analyses, including:

• Eastern Shore of Virginia Ground Water
  Supply and Management Plan, 1992.

• Hydrology and Analysis of the Groundwater
  Flow System of the Eastern Shore, Virginia,
  1992.

• Technical Analysis and Justification for Ground
  Water Ordinances on the Eastern Shore of
  Virginia, 2001.

• Soil Survey of Accomack County.

• U.S. Route 13 Corridor Plan, 1999.

• Evaluation of Household Water Quality in
  Accomack and Northampton Counties, VA,
  2000.

• Route 13 / Wallops Island Access Management
  Study, 2002…
Studies & analyses cont’d

• Draft Transportation Analysis for the
  Comprehensive Plan, 2005.

• Economic Activity Associated with Clam
  Aquaculture in Virginia, Virginia Institute of
  Marine Science, 2005.

• Buildout Analysis of alternative zoning
  scenarios conducted by consulting team, Jan
  - June, 2006.

• Analysis of alternative site layouts conducted
  by the consulting team, January - June, 2006.

• Analysis of growth and development trends
  conducted by staff and consultants, Jan -
  June, 2006….
Studies & analyses cont’d

• Expert testimony on ground and surface
  water resources at the Joint Work Session of
  the Planning Commission and Board of
  Supervisors, June 1, 2006

• Revised Population Forecasts conducted by
  consulting team based on County’s own
  2000 population estimates, January, 2007.

• Land Demand Forecasts conducted by
  consulting team based on revised population
  forecasts, January, 2007.

• “McHarg” Geographic Data Overlay
  Analysis conducted by the consulting team,
  November, 2006 – March, 2007.
Substantial Public Input, including:

• Planning Commission and Stakeholders Group
  - Joint Work Session on Land Use Planning
  Issues and Options, October 24, 2005.

• Planning Commission Work Session,
  November 22, 2005.

• Board of Supervisors Work Session, December
  3, 2005.

• Joint Work Sessions of Board of Supervisors
  and Planning Commission April 25 and June 1,
  2006….
Public Input cont’d


• Planning Commission and Stakeholder Group
  Work Sessions and other public meetings
  conducted on a regular basis throughout 2006
  and 2007.

• Public input work sessions, September, 2006.

• Public input work sessions, January & Feb,
  2007.
 Basic Concepts for Future Land Use
Shared by the Citizens and Supported
          by the Analysis:

 • Concentrate development around
   existing towns and villages

 • Provide for large lots (low density)
   close to the water/shorelines

 • Provide for smaller lots (higher density)
   close to services (towns & villages)

 • Cluster businesses on Rt. 13

 • Preserve wetlands, groundwater, and
   agriculture.
               Chapter 1
      The Planning Process and
     Virginia Code Requirements

• Updated public input process summary

• Deleted obsolete survey summary

• Added updated Vision Statement

• Updated State Code Language, including
  new section requiring urban development
  areas (§15.2-2223.1)
            Chapter 2
       Natural Environment

• Updated most of the data on
  natural resources: climate, soils,
  water, air quality, plants and
  animals, shoreline erosion.
             Chapter 3
   The Developed Environment

• Updated population forecasts using
  county’s corrected census data.

• Updated land use data, including build-
  out analysis

• Updated housing data using 2000
  census and the 2002 Regional Housing
  Assessment.

• Updated key economic data, especially
  employment, agriculture, and Wallops
  Flight Facility.

• Updated Transportation data.

• Added CIP data.
            Chapter 4
      Issues and Concerns

• Updated Code citations

• Updated information and data on
  manufactured homes, economic
  issues, seafood production,
  agriculture, groundwater,
  transportation, and recreation.
 Summary Highlights of Data
Analysis in Chapters 2, 3, and 4



 • Population Estimates
   and Forecasts
      Trend Population Forecast
(0.8% avg. annual = 7,900 more people)


   Year      2000*    2010       2020     2030

Population   34,488    37,350   40,446   43,800


*Uses Accomack’s corrected 2000 Data


    “Trend Plus” Population Forecast
(1.4% avg. annual = 15,300 more people)

  Year       2000*    2010      2020     2030

Population   34,488   39,630    45,540   52,300
         Data Analysis
• Population Estimates and Forecasts

• Forecast of Future
  Residential Land Demand
          Projected Future
      Residential Land Demand
         (using corrected 2000 U. S. Census)


                Trend (0.8% rate)   “Trend Plus” (1.4% rate)

Population      43,800 people       52,300 people
2030

Population      7,900 new people    15,300 new people
Increase

Additional      3,160 new dwellings 6,120 new dwellings
Dwellings

Additional      2,370 total acres   4,590 total acres (gross)
acres needed*

 *Assumes 75% is in village development areas
          Data Analysis
• Population Estimates and Forecasts

• Forecast of Future Residential Land
  Demand

• Groundwater Data
Two Key Issues:
Total Supply & Saltwater Intrusion

• About 5 million GPD is now permitted to be
  withdrawn from aquifer (excludes some
  “grandfathered” withdrawals).

• At 250 gpd per dwelling, about 3 million gpd
  is now withdrawn from year-round dwellings.

• Total estimated recharge on Eastern Shore is
  11 mgd. Assuming Accomack is 3/4 of that
  (8.25 mgd), current permitted and residential
  withdrawals are approaching that limit.


• Saltwater intrusion worsens as the aquifers
  are depleted. This is already occurring in
  some areas along the shorelines of the
  County.
            Data Analysis
• Population Estimates and Forecasts

• Forecast of Future Residential Land
  Demand

• Groundwater Data


• Surface Water Data
• Important commercial and recreational
  fisheries depend upon good water
  quality.

• Clam aquaculture is a $30 - $40 million
  dollar business on the Eastern Shore.

• Water quality is threatened by excess
  nutrients which enter the surface waters
  as runoff from agricultural land and
  impervious surfaces (development).

• Shellfish Grounds Condemnation:
  1992: 8,033 acres
  1997: 8,740 acres
  2007: 7,587 acres (6% decrease)
           Data Analysis
• Population Estimates and Forecasts

• Forecast of Future Residential Land
  Demand

• Groundwater Data

• Surface Water Data


• Build-out Analysis (2006)
Old A-District:
30,000 s.f. lots
114,000 Houses
About 300,000 pop.
New A-District proposed 2006:
    10-acre lot (typical)
      = 23,000 Houses
     About 60,000 pop.
 New A-District Adopted 2006

Five-acre minimum lot size with bonus
cluster lots is expected to yield
approximately one lot per 3 acres overall,
which would produce a theoretical build-
out of approximately 50,000 new lots.
           Data Analysis
• Population Estimates and Forecasts

• Forecast of Future Residential Land
  Demand

• Groundwater Data

• Surface Water Data

• Build-out Analysis (2006)


• “McHarg” Analysis using GIS
“McHarg” Analysis Map
 Major Issues and Problems
• Agricultural & Forestal Land
  Preservation.
• Groundwater Protection.
• Natural Resource Preservation.
• Physical Constraints to Development.
• The Route 13 Corridor.
• Central Water and Wastewater.
• Character, Pattern & Form of
  Development.
• Affordable Housing.
• Economic Development.
• Fiscal Impacts of Growth.
• Balancing needs.
  Updated Plan -
Policies, Actions, and
Future Land Use Map
Based Upon the Major Issues,
the Five Key Objectives are:

1.   Natural Resources. Conserve natural
     resources, including farmland, forests,
     wetlands, surface and ground water.

2.   Economic Development. Promote
     compatible economic development and job
     growth, including the agriculture, seafood,
     and tourism industries.

3.   Affordable Housing. Maintain an adequate
     the supply of affordable housing.

4. Rural Character. Preserve the small-town
   feel and rural character.

5.   Public Services. Provide efficient and cost-
     effective public service delivery.
 To Achieve These Objectives
       the Overarching
Growth Management Strategy is:

• Conserve the County’s finite
  and fragile groundwater
  supply by accommodating most new
  development near the central spine
  and northern portions of the County.

• Conserve the County’s fiscal
  resources by locating new
  development and infrastructure in
  create well-designed, human-scaled,
  compact, mixed-use developments in
  and around existing towns and
  villages, as incremental, natural
  extensions of existing settlements.
• Enhance the County’s economic base
  by expanding compatible and
  sustainable natural resource industries,
  and compatible, low-impact service
  industries.

• Provide adequate housing for all
  households by facilitating well-
  designed, higher density housing in and
  around existing towns, incremental
  expansions of existing rural villages,
  and providing incentives for affordable
  housing development.
     Five Major Methods for
   Implementing the Strategy

1. Future Land Use Map.

  Use FLM to guide all decisions regarding
  growth, development, and public infrastructure
  to areas in and around existing towns and
  villages.


2. Rezoning Decisions.
  Use the specific criteria set forth in Chapter 6.
 Methods for Implementing the Strategy

3. Natural Resource Conservation.

  Enact a variety of policy, regulatory, and
  program tools to preserve farmland,
  shorelines, water resources, and other natural
  resources:

   • Planned Unit Development (PUD)
     encouraging rural cluster development

   • Revitalize Agricultural and Forestal
     Districts (AFD)

   • Promote best management practices (BMP)
     for agricultural and forest uses,

   • Apply Ches Bay protection standards to the
     Seaside

   • Adopt state’s stormwater management
     code for new development.
 Methods for Implementing the Strategy


4. Affordable Housing.

 • Encourage expansion of existing
   communities in a compact, mixed-use
   pattern
 • Adopt an Affordable Dwelling Unit
   ordinance (ADU).

5. Economic Development.

 • Ensure that prospective industrial sites are
   properly zoned
 • Protect water quality to support aquaculture
   and other marine industries
 • Promote the expansion of the “distributed
   workforce” (using broadband internet
   access).
          Chapter 5
  Goals, Objectives, Policies,
  and Recommended Actions
Added the following key policies:

• To adopt PUD zoning district

• To open growth management dialogue with
  the towns and villages

• To monitor the condition of natural systems

• To Adopt and administer the State’s model
  stormwater management regulations.

• To Protect the designated potential impact
  areas in the vicinity of the Wallops Island
  Regional Spaceport facility

• To Identify and rezone suitable sites for
  industrial uses….
            Chapter 5 cont’d
• To Protect the Gateway Entrances to the
  County.

• To Consider implementation of a sliding scale
  of real estate tax deferral for AFD.

• To Encourage all new streets to be accepted
  into the VDOT system; approve annexations
  only when streets are or will be accepted by
  VDOT

• To Carry out a countywide Transportation
  Needs Analysis to determine the specific needs
  for improvements within the 20-year policy
  planning horizon, as well as general needs in
  the 50-year conceptual planning horizon.

• Added Action Plan Chart to set schedule and
  priorities for implementation (subject to PC and
  BOS action)
            Actions
Over 60 discreet actions are proposed:

   • Zoning and Regulatory Actions

   • Planning and Research Actions

   • Operational Programs

   • Capital Investments and
     Construction

   • Specific actions for implementing
     the Transportation and Affordable
     Housing plans.
                  Chapter 6
          Future Land Use Plan

• Updated AFD acreage data.

• Added summary of McHarg analysis and
  public input.

• Added further description of the rural density
  issue and the priority to concentrate residential
  development in existing population centers.

• Added language to the Village Development
  Areas to acknowledge State Code requirement
  for Urban Development Areas

• Updated/Modified Future Land Use Map and
  Land Use Areas (location and acreage)

• Strengthened criteria for judging rezoning
  proposals.
       Land Use Categories
  of Future Land Use Map (FLM)
• Conservation Areas. Includes marshland and
  undeveloped barrier islands.


• Agricultural Areas. Target for long-term farming
  and forestry thru zoning regulations, cluster, AFD,
  conservation design, conservation easements.


• Rural Settlement Areas. Large lots and cluster
  development outside village areas.


• Residential Areas. New residential development in
  existing communities.


• Village Development Areas. New development
  in traditional, mixed use pattern.

• Commercial Areas. For heavy traffic uses.

• Industrial Areas. For uses not compatible within
  village areas.
         Acreage of
   Future Land Use Areas
Residential Area 2,443 ac / 11 sites
Rural Settlement Area
 Area A = 3,002 ac / 11 sites
 Area B = 1,621 ac / 5 sites
Village Development Area
  Area A = 5,193 ac / 23 sites
  Area B = 1,821 ac / 7 sites
Commercial Area 887 ac / 9 sites
Industrial Area 1,997 ac / 15 sites

Total: 16,964 acres
Agriculture: 181,994 ac
Conservation: 69,733 ac
Election District 1
Election Districts 2 & 3
Election Districts 4 & 5
Election Districts 6 & 7
Election Districts 8 & 9
         Appendix


• Summary of all public input
  sessions 2005 - 2007