Role of IMD in Climate change and persistent

							              Role of IMD
                   in
Climate change and persistent droughts:
Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in
   rice growing sub divisions in India


         Dr LS Rathore
Head, Agri-Met Division & Additional Director General
          India Meteorological Department
                 New Delhi 110 003
           LSRATHORE@NCMRWF.GOV.IN
                   Study Objectives
• To quantify the regional aspects of droughts
• To evaluate the historical changes of rice production in
  selected (1-2) major rice growing sub divisions in India
• To analyze the impacts of future water needs of rice crop and
  water availability due to climate changes
• To assess rice agro-ecosystem sensitivity to climate change, by
  using high-resolution regional model simulations
• To develop integrated agro techniques to minimize the
  negative impacts of drought
• To analyze the possible loss of livelihoods due to climate
  change
• To disseminate results relevant stakeholders
• Develop a capacity building program on “Climate change
  impacts and agro-ecosystem sensitivity: Vulnerability and
  Adaptability in the rice growing divisions in India.”
    Data & Model Needs of Project
• Daily precipitation, temperature and solar
  radiation data for the available time period from
  meteorological sub divisions in the region
• Data on ground water availability
• Data on usage of water by agricultural sector and
  percentage water used for rice production
• Area, production and productivity of rice – District-
  wise/state-wise
• Hydrological/Water balance models (a user friendly
  model will be chosen)
• Crop weather models (INFOCROP / DSSAT)
• Climate change models
                   Role of IMD
• Provide Historical weather data (daily
  precipitation, temperature and radiation /
  sunshine hours.
• Assist in Investigation of the regional aspects of
  persistence of droughts associated with the
  vagaries of Indian monsoon over various
  meteorological subdivisions of India
  – Crop weather models (INFOCROP / DSSAT)
• To disseminate results relevant stakeholders
• Develop a capacity building program
            Role of IMD …..Contd
• Short training course for scientific staff and
  students
• Assessing the value of high-resolution regional
  model simulations for describing the future
  impacts of climate change on the frequency and
  intensity of drought over selected subdivisions
• Development of policy plans to meet extreme
  situation such as persistent drought with respect
  to rice production
             IMD-though AMFUs
• Co-ordinate regional aspects contained in the
  proposal through Agro-Met Field Units
  functioning in different agro-climatic zones
• Socio-economic vulnerability assessment
       Possible impacts of the project
   through involvements of other AMFUs
• Raise awareness of climate change impacts on agriculture in
  India amongst relevant stakeholders
• Enhance national capacity in India to integrate climate
  change considerations into agriculture development policies
• Identification and implementation of integrated mitigation
  strategies to sustain rice productivity under changing
  climatic conditions
• Offer transferable frameworks and techniques for other rice
  growing sub-divisions in India
• Develop project outputs to help guide decision making and
  improve the data and information base
  AAS & AMFUs
• Agro-Met Observations
• Weather Forecast preparation &
  Dissemination
• Advisory Preparations by Agro-
  Meteorological Field Units at SAUs/ICAR
  institutions
• Advisory Dissemination
• Feed-back System
   India Meteorological Department
• Milestones 1932, 1945, 1976
• 23 State Agromet Service
  Centre in collaboration with
  SDA
• Agro-advisory preparation -
  Monday & Thursday
• Composite        Agro-advisory
  preparation- Tuesday & Friday
• Dissemination-             AIR,
  Doordarshan, Print media,
  Website
   National Centre for Medium Range Forecasting
•107 AAS units with SAUs & ICAR
 institutes
•4-days forecast + weekly outlook
 preparation- Tuesday & Friday
•Agromet Advisory Board & Agro-
 advisory - Tuesday & Friday
• Composite bulletin preparation –
 Monday
•Crop Weather Models
•Dissemination- AIR, Doordarshan, Print
 media, Web
•Feedback      –    Farmers,   Forecast
 Verification,     Economic     Impact
 Assessment & Annual Review Meetings
•AAS awareness & user interaction
 programmes
 Current Status For Preparation of Location
 Specific Weather Forecast At IMD/NCMRWF

                       DIRECT MODEL
                      OUTPUT FORECAST


    STATISTICAL                             SYNOPTIC
 INTERPRETATION                         INTERPRETATION
OF MODEL FORECAST                      OF MODEL FORECAST


                    FORECASTERS’
                         PANEL




                      FINAL FORECAST
                         (ACZ Scale)
   AGROMETEOROLOGICAL ADVISORY SERVICE
              OF NCMRWF
                         NCMRWF
            PREPARATION OF LOCATION SPECIFIC FORECAST

INTERNET                                     FEEDBACK FROM
                                             FARMERS/
FAX/PHONE                                    AAS UNIT

             AAS UNITS (SAUs / ICAR institutes)
             PREPARATION OF AGROMET ADVISORY BULLETIN
                                              FARMERS’
                                              FEEDBACK
   AIR         T.V.       PRINT           PERSONAL
                                          CONTACT


                      FARMERS
Proposed District Level Agro-Met Advisory Service System

                            IMD/NCMRWF
                                                   PREPARATION OF DISTRICT
               Agro-climate level                    WISE MEDIUM RANGE
               agro-met data                          WEATHER FORECAST
                                                     BY STATE MET CENTRE

                           130 AG.MET. FIELD UNITS

        PREPARATION OF
       DISTRICT SPECIFIC
                                           District-wise
       AGRO-ADVISORIES                     Agro-met data
        FOR CONCERNED
         AGRO-CLIMATIC
                          DISTRICT AGRICULTURE
                             OFFICES OF STATE
                                GOVERNMENTS                DISSEMINATION OF
                                                             DISTRICT LEVEL
               Feedback analysis                            AGRO-ADVISORIES
                                    FARMERS
                             (THROUGH MEDIA, EXTENSION
                            SERVICES, PERSONAL CONTACT)
    NCMRWF FORECAST PRODUCTS
     DISSEMINATED TO AAS UNITS

   24 HR PRECIPITATION (MM)

   AVERAGE CLOUDINESS (OKTA)

   AVERAGE WIND SPEED (KMPH) AT 10 FT HEIGHT

   PREDOMINANT WIND DIRECTION (DEG.) AT 10 FT HEIGHT

   MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TREND (DEG. C) AT 4.5 FT HEIGHT

   MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TREND (DEG. C) AT 4.5 FT HEIGHT

    Frequency of Forecast :     Twice-a-week
    Dissemination         :     On Tuesday and Friday
    Period covered        :     4 days/Outlook for week
 Indian Council of Agricultural Research

• 25 Centers of AICRP on
  Agro Meteorology
• Located at SAUs with AAS
  of NCMRWF
• R&D in Agromet
• Agromet data bank &
  Website
        Salient Features of Agromet
           Advisory Service (AAS)
• AgroMet Field Units (AMFU) in all classified agro-climatic zones.

• Units are opened in State Agricultural Universities and ICAR
  Institutes.

• Strong Linkage with AICRP-AgMet of ICAR

• Weather Forecast in quantitative terms for 4 days with
  outlook for a week

• AMFUs translate Wx forecasts into Advisories

• Improved Advisory Dissemination & Farmers’ Feedback
  Mechanism

• Units run Crop Weather Models and include output in the day
  today advisories.
        Gaps in Earlier AAS System

• Though IMD/NCMRWF services were useful but demand of
  the farming community could not be fully met due to
  following gaps:

  –   Non-availability of District specific weather forecast
  –   Non-availability of Extended Range Weather Forecast
  –   Non-availability of real-time crop information.
  –   Lack of objectivity in Advisories
  –   Lack of strong outreach/extension mechanism.
                AAS- Future:
     It revolves on some critical questions
• Assessment of information needed by diverse
  groups of end-users
• Generation of seamless weather forecast
• Development of tools to integrate agro-
  meteorological data into useful information
• Generate farm level advisories
• Effective communication of agro-meteorological
  information
• Training needs of end-users
During XIth Five Year Plan, Ministry Of Earth
Sciences (MoES) Plans to Improve Weather
Based Advisory Service for Farming
Community by Reorganizing the Existing
Agro-Meteorological Advisory Services (AAS).
It will be Implemented in Close Collaboration
With Ministry of Agriculture & Ag.
Universities
      Reorganization Plan for IAAS
Is Aimed to Improve in:
 – Weather Forecast & Advisory Content
 – Use of Modern Technology in AAS
 – Advisory Dissemination Mechanism
 – Feedback Mechanism
 – linkages with Administrative Authorities
 – Monitoring System
 – Mechanism for Continuous Up-gradation
 – Mutual Collaboration by Related Agencies
    Launching of Integrated
   Agromet Advisory Services
• AAS of IMD and NCMRWF has been converged and
  the services are being provided under single window
  system.
• All the AMFUs of NCMRWF has been transferred to
  IMD since 01-04-2007.
        PHILOSOPHY OF INTEGRATED AAS

• AAS has to be essentially a multi-institutional program.

• As the basic core is weather and climate, IMD has to play pivotal role.
  Integrate AAS at IMD in a collaborative manner.

• Around meteorological nucleus, one needs to synthesize the orbits of
  agro-meteorological data base along with decision support system to
  translate weather forecast into advisory-SAUs, ICAR Institutions &
  others

• The final orbit comprises of Information dissemination agencies. These
  include; KVK, DAO, ATMA, NGOs etc

• Mass media dissemination agencies such as Radio, television, print media
  etc. And Village level knowledge dissemination agencies (DIT) needs to
  play an active role.
                Collaborating Agencies
• Ministry Of Earth Sciences
      –    India Meteorological Department
      –    National Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasting
      –    Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
•   Indian Council For Agricultural Research
•   Department Of Agriculture & Cooperation
•   State Departments Of Agriculture
•   State Agricultural Universities And Other Universities
•   Ministry of Information Technology
•   Ministry of Science & Technology
•   Ministry of Information & Broadcasting (AIR & TV)
•   Print Media
•   Department Of Space
•   Min. of Rural Development
•   MSSR Foundation & Other NGOs & PP
              TIER 1
                                      Plan For Integrated AAS
       Apex Policy Planning
              Body

              TIER 2
        National Agro Met
      Service HQ (Execution)

               TIER 3
      State Agro Met Centres~28
       coordination/monitoring


              TIER 4
             AMFUs
  Agro Climatic Zone Level ~ 127
                                        Drivers of Integration-
               TIER 5                   Need for Crop specific
District Level Extension & Training     District Level Advisory
 Input management as advisory
                                      and Village Level Outreach.
         Multimodel Super Ensemble Technique
Step-2      Generation of Multi-model Forecasts

   NCMRWF
                       UK Met            NCEP     JMA
    T-254                                GFS




                     Forecast =    wiFi +d




                        d= Value-addition
                      FORECAST SYSTEM

Existing                      Proposed

Agro-climatic Zone specific   District Level Weather
weather Forecast (~127)       Forecast (~604)

Single GC Model Out Put       Multi-Model Super Ensemble
(Resolution 150 & 75 Kms)     (NCMRWF T-254,UKMO, GFS,
                              JMA)
Meso-scale Models             Meso-scale models
(Resolution ~30 Km)           (Resolution ~10 km)
            Advisory Service System
Existing                         Proposed Expansion
Zone Level Advisories            District Level Advisories

Subjective Methodology to        Decision Support System tools
prepare advisory bulletins
Crop Status information –        Use of high resolution remote
fragmented and based on visual   sensing products
estimate
Crop Calendars                   Use of GIS and other IT tools for
                                 value addition
Generic Advisories for zones     Customized products for targeted
                                 user groups
             AGROMET ADVISORY
 WEATHER/CLIMATE INFORMATION
- summary of preceding week,
- Climatic normal for the week, Weather
- Medium Range Weather forecast

 CROP INFORMATION
- Type, state and phenological stages of the crops
- Information on pest and disease and
- Information on crop stresses

 ADVISORY FOR WEATHER WISE FARM MANAGEMENT
- Crop-wise farm management information tailored to weather
 sensitive agricultural practices like sowing, irrigation scheduling,
 p & d control operation, fertilizer use etc.
- Spraying condition for insect, weed and their products
- Livestock management information for housing, health and
 nutrition etc.
      Integrated Approach to Prepare Advisory
     Historical Data            Real Time Data          Forecast Data

Probabilities (Rainfall,   Rainfall                Rainfall
Dry & Wet Spells)          Degree Days             Cloud/ Sunshine
Onset of rainfall          Crop Phenology          Temperature
Degree Days                Water balance/aridity   Wind Speed & Direction
P&D                        Water Requirements      Humidity
Water balance              P&D                     ET
Soil moisture/temp         Soil moisture/temp      Soil Moisture
Air temperature,           Air temperature         Soil Temperature
Humidity                   Humidity                Leaf Wetness
ET                         ET                      Leaf Temperature
Sunshine                   Sunshine




                               Simulation


                             Remote Sensing

                                   GIS

                              Agro met Products


                            Agro met Advisory
       Dissemination of Advisories
Mass Mode of Dissemination
  All India radio/Television/Print Media

Outreach at Village level
  Web Pages/Internet
  DIT/NIC
  TCS/TCL/MSSRF/ Kisan Call Centers & NGOs

Interactive Dissemination
  KVK (ICAR): Training + interaction
  DAO (SDA): Coordinate Farm inputs
  NGOs & other intermediary groups
  Awareness Program (Kisan Mela, Exhibition etc)
        Dissemination Criticality
•   Time & Frequency of Dissemination
•   Mode of Dissemination
•   Language of Bulletins
•   Frequent Interaction & Constant Feedback
               Establishment of Common
               Service Centres (CSC) by DIT

• DIT is developing ICT facilities for the benefit of the
  citizens, especially those in rural & remote areas.
• 1,00,000 CSC will be set up in rural areas by the year
  2007 to provide all possible services.
• Among others, Agro Met services would be provided
  through the CSCs.
• State governments are putting up appropriate institution
  mechanism for such support.
       Feedback Issues & Mechanism
• Quality of Forecast
• Quality & relevance of Advisories
• Farmer should contact Whom & How?
• Problem solving through interactive mode
• Answering questions of common interest through
  bulletins
• Accessibility to information via ICT
• Accessibility to Experts & video Conferencing
 SALIENT FEATURE OF INTEGRATED AAS

• Involve all concerned organizations
• Improved observing system
• District specific weather forecast
• District Specific Advisories using advanced tools
• Operational    mechanism     with      extension    and
  information disseminating agencies
• Efficient outreach system
• Monitoring and Feedback Mechanism
Proposed District-Level
Medium Range Forecast

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