World Population Growth Through History

© 2006 Population Reference BureauA.D.2000A.D.1000A.D.11000B.C.2000B.C.3000B.C.4000B.C.5000B.C.6000B.C.7000B.C.1+ million years87652143OldStoneAgeNew Stone AgeBronzeAgeIronAgeMiddleAgesModernAgeBlack Death—The Plague9101112A.D.3000A.D.4000A.D.5000180019001950197520002100FutureBillionsSource: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100(1998).World Population Growth Through History© 2006 Population Reference BureauNinthEighthSeventhSixthFifthFourthThirdSecondFirst BillionNumber of years to add each billion (year)All of Human History(1800)130 (1930)30 (1960)15 (1975)12 (1987)12 (1999)14 (2013)14 (2027)21 (2048)Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision(medium scenario), 2005.World Population Growth, in Billions© 2006 Population Reference BureauMillionsAnnual Increase in World Population0102030405060708090100195119561961196619711976198119861991199620012005Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.© 2006 Population Reference BureauBillions012345678910195019701990201020302050Less Developed RegionsMore Developed RegionsSource: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision(medium scenario), 2005.Growth in More, Less Developed Countries© 2006 Population Reference BureauTrends in Population Growth WorldwidePopulation Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods808783797676757201020304050607080901980-19851985-19901990-19951995-20002000-20052005-20102010-20152015-202000.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.82Net population added per yearAnnual population growth rateMillionsPercent increase per yearSource: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision(medium scenario), 2005.© 2006 Population Reference BureauNotes on Trends in Population Growth Worldwide•This figure illustrates the lag between changes in the rate of growth and the net increase in population per year.•Over the period 1985-1995, the population growth rate declined (a reflection of declining fertility), yet millions of people were added to the world’s population (which peaked around 1985, when 87 million people were added each year). •From 2000 on, the growth rate will continue to decline. Between 2015 and 2020, we will still be adding 72 million people each year. Why? Because the generation of women now having their children is very large as the result of high fertility in their mothers’ and grandmothers’ generations.© 2006 Population Reference BureauWorld Population ClockNatural Increase perWorldMore Developed CountriesLess Developed CountriesLess Developed Countries (less China)Year80,794,218 1,234,907 79,559,311 71,906,587 Day221,354 3,383 217,971 197,004 Minute15421511372005Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.© 2006 Population Reference BureauSource: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.Projected Population Change, by CountryPercent Population Change, 2005-2050© 2006 Population Reference BureauTimeStage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4NaturalincreaseBirth rateDeath rateNote: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition© 2006 Population Reference BureauRates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population05101520253035401950-19551955-19601960-19651965-19701970-19751975-19801980-19851985-19901990-19951995-20002000-2005Birth rateDeath rateNatural IncreaseSource: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide© 2006 Population Reference Bureau•Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. And women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s. •Nevertheless, if death rates are lower than birth rates, populations will still grow. •Also, it is possible for absolute numbers of births to increase even when birth rates decline. Notes on Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide© 2006 Population Reference Bureau1.171.120.940.841.221.241.241.231.231.20BelarusBulgariaRepublic of MoldovaRepublic of KoreaSloveniaSlovakiaCzech RepublicUkraineChina, Hong Kong Special AdministrativeRegionChina, Macao Special Administrative Region10 Places With the Lowest Total Fertility WorldwideAverage number of children per woman, 2000-2005Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.© 2006 Population Reference BureauNumber of Women 15 to 49Billions0.620.861.321.761.982.06195019701990201020302050Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision(medium scenario), 2005.Women of Childbearing Age© 2006 Population Reference Bureau•The number of women of childbearing age more than doubled between 1950 and 1990: from 620 million to over 1.3 billion.•Their numbers are expected to reach over 2 billion by the middle of this century, according to the UN’s medium projections.•The growing population of women in their childbearing years and their male partners will contribute to future world population growth, even if levels of childbearing continue to decline.Notes on Women of Childbearing Age© 2006 Population Reference BureauWorldwide0.60.91.82.02.01.301231950-19551970-19751990-19952010-20152030-20352045-2050Billions0123456Children per womanWomen 15 to 49Average number of children per womanSource: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision(medium scenario), 2005.Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility© 2006 Population Reference Bureau•The number of women in their childbearing years has increased since the 1950s and is projected to continue to increase to 2050.•The number of children per woman has declined since the 1950s and is projected to continue to decline.•Even though women have on average fewer children than their mothers, the absolute number of babies being born continues to increase because of the increases in the total number of women of childbearing age.Notes on Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility© 2006 Population Reference BureauDecline or Growth, 2005-2050Percent81013-23-11-6Russia(1.4)Italy(1.3)Trinidad & Tobago(1.6)Armenia(1.3)China(1.6)Country(average number of children per woman)Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.Population in Countries With Low FertilityThailand(1.7)© 2006 Population Reference Bureau•All countries shown here have below “replacement level” childbearing—the level required for population to ultimately stop growing or declining. Yet, half will continue to grow and half are projected to decline by 2050.•This disparity is due to the effects of population momentum. In populations with a young age structure, even if fertility declines sharply, the numbers of children will continue to increase for a generation as the cohorts of young people pass through their reproductive years. Consequently, populations will continue to grow for decades even if fertility is instantly reduced to replacement level. On the other hand, some low-fertility countries are subject to negative population momentum. Their populations have aged enough to result in relatively small cohorts under age 30, and therefore even if fertility were to rise to replacement level, population size would decline for sometime.Notes on Population in Countries With Low Fertility© 2006 Population Reference BureauDiverging Trends in Fertility ReductionAverage number of children per woman5.75.25.46.46.48.55.33.36.23.12.42.14.32.5EgyptIndiaIndonesiaIranPakistanTurkeyYemen1970-19752000-2005Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.© 2006 Population Reference BureauPatterns of Fertility DeclineAverage number of children per woman02468101950–19551960–19651970–19751980–19851990–19952000–2005Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.UgandaKenyaColombiaSouth Korea© 2006 Population Reference BureauReaching Replacement FertilityAverage number of children per woman5.67.05.46.45.77.31.92.02.12.01.92.0AzerbaijanChileIranMauritiusThailandTunisia1960-19652000-2005Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.© 2006 Population Reference BureauLife Expectancy at Birth, in Years49677276656577808275AfricaAsiaLatin Americaand theCaribbeanMore DevelopedRegionsWorld2000-20052045-2050Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision(medium scenario), 2005.Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region© 2006 Population Reference Bureau•In 2045-2050, infants born around the world can expect to live an average of 75 years —up ten years from today. •Africa will experience the largest increase in life expectancy: from 49 years to 65 years. •Life expectancy varies widely by region. In more developed countries, life expectancy averages 76 years, compared with only 49 years in Africa.Notes on Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region© 2006 Population Reference BureauUrban PopulationPercent291517534737377655427485546182WorldAfricaAsiaLatin Americaand theCaribbeanMoreDevelopedRegions195020002030Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision(medium scenario), 2004.Trends in Urbanization, by Region© 2006 Population Reference Bureau•Currently, world regions differ greatly in their levels of urbanization. In more developed regions and in Latin America and the Caribbean, over 70 percent of the population is urban, whereas in Africa and Asia, under 40 percent of the population is urban. By 2030, however, the urban proportion of these two regions will exceed 50 percent. •By 2030, roughly 60 percent of the world’s population will be living in urban areas. Notes on Trends in Urbanization, by Region© 2006 Population Reference BureauMillionsSource: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision(medium scenario), 2004.1950 2000 2015Largest Cities, Worldwide81112171834212336LondonTokyo New York Sao PauloMexicoCityTokyoDelhiMumbai(Bombay)Tokyo© 2006 Population Reference Bureau•The largest cities in the world are growing rapidly, and they are shifting from the more developed regions to the less developed regions. In 1950 the three largest cities were in more developed countries; by 2000, only Tokyo remained in the top three. •In 1950, New York was the largest city in the world, with a population of about 12 million. By 2015, the largest city worldwide is projected to be Tokyo, with triple this population size: 36 million. Notes on Largest Cities, Worldwide© 2006 Population Reference BureauUrbanization in Central AmericaPopulation Living in Urban AreasPercent393936294748646249496060Costa RicaEl SalvadorGuatemalaHondurasNicaraguaPanama19702010Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.© 2006 Population Reference BureauNotes on Urbanization in Central America•Central American countries are urbanizing rapidly, at a pace similar to that of their South American neighbors 20 years earlier. Sixty percent or more of the population in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Panama is projected to be urban by 2010; the projection for Central America as a whole is 71 percent.•South America has nearly the highest rate of urbanization of any world region, projected to achieve 84 percent by 2010 (virtually tied with Northern Europe).© 2006 Population Reference BureauPopulation Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions3001001003003002001000100200300Less Developed RegionsMore Developed RegionsMaleFemaleMaleFemale80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-90-4AgeSource: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.Age Distribution of the World’s Population© 2006 Population Reference Bureau•Sex and age distributions show that less developed countries have significantly younger populations than more developed countries.•Almost one-third of the population in less developed countries is under age 15. In contrast, less than one-fifth of the population in more developed countries is under 15.•Today there are more than 2 billion young people below age 20 in less developed regions—the age cohort that will soon become the world’s newest group of parents. •Young age structures in the less developed countries are due mainly to higher levels of childbearing in recent decades.Notes on Age Distribution of the World’s Population© 2006 Population Reference BureauTrends in Aging, by World RegionPopulation Ages 65 and OlderPercent736614114101021WorldAfricaAsiaLatin Americaand theCaribbeanMore DevelopedRegions20002025Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision(medium scenario), 2005.© 2006 Population Reference BureauNotes on Trends in Aging, by World Region• By 2025, over 20 percent of the population in more developed regions will be ages 65 and older.• By 2025, one-tenth of the world’s population will be over age 65.• Asia will see the proportion of its elderly population almost double, from about 6 percent in 2000 to 10 percent in 2025. In absolute terms, this represents a stark increase in just 25 years: from about 216 million to about 480 million older people.© 2006 Population Reference Bureau635450504637All AgesAges 60+Ages 80+WomenMenWomen and AgingProjected World Population, by Sex, at Specified Age Groups, 2025PercentSource: United Nations, World Population Prospects:The 2004 Revision(medium scenario), 2005.© 2006 Population Reference BureauNotes on Women and Aging• The figure above depicts what demographers refer to as the feminization of aging. Although women make up half of world population, by the end of the next quarter century, they will account for more than half (54 percent) of people ages 60 and older, and 63 percent of very old people (80 and older).© 2006 Population Reference BureauLiteracy Rates, by Sex, 2000-2004Percent77538973558770918677WorldSub-SaharanAfricaLatin Americaand theCaribbeanAsiaArab StatesFemaleMaleSource: UNESCO Institute for Statistics: accessed online at www.uis.unesco.org/TEMPLATE/html/Exceltables/education/Literacy_Regional_April2006.xls on May 21, 2006.Adult Literacy, by Region© 2006 Population Reference Bureau•Nearly all men and women in more developed regions can read and write. •However, literacy rates are lower in the less developed regions. Women’s literacy rates in particular vary significantly by region: from 53 percent in sub-Saharan Africa, to 73 percent in Asia, to 89 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean.•Overall, more men than women are literate. This is especially striking in the Arab states, where more than three-fourths of men but about half of all women are literate.Notes on Adult Literacy, by Region© 2006 Population Reference Bureau00.511.522.519501960197019801990200020102020203020402050AfricaAsiaLatin America and the CaribbeanNote: People 15 to 64 are considered to be workers; people 14 and younger and those over 65 are considered to be dependents.Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.Ratio of Workers to Dependents, by Region© 2006 Population Reference Bureau0.10.20.31.21.51.62.02.34.45.9MaliCambodiaBangladeshBoliviaMexicoChinaJordanU.S.GreeceCuba1997-2004*Physicians per 1,000 peopleAvailability of Doctors, Selected Countries* Data are for the most recent year available for each country.Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2006.© 2006 Population Reference BureauNotes on Availability of Doctors, Selected Countries•Population growth can affect a country’s capacity to address the health needs of its people through trained personnel and accessible health facilities.•Access to health services varies greatly from country to country. In Greece, for example, there are 4.4 doctors for every 1,000 people. •This is over 20 times higher than in Cambodia, which has only 0.2 doctors for every 1,000 people.