UK Mortgage Market Outlook Q3 2009 by lifemate

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UK Mortgage Market Outlook: Q3 2009

Description:    The UK is still officially in recession, the deepest downturn in decades. The resulting fall in
                consumer demand for mortgages has combined with a severe restriction in the availability of credit
                to cause a massive downturn in gross lending in 2009. This brief offers detailed analysis of the
                market and how it is expected to develop over the next few years.

                Scope


                - Provides an evaluation of the market and industry trends up to Q3 2009.

                - Examines the impact of factors such as the base rate, arrears and repossessions and the pre-
                budget report on the market.

                - Sets out forecasts for gross lending covering the period 2010-2013 under three different
                scenarios.


                Highlights of this title

                UK gross lending fell to £39 billion in Q3 2009, a 36% decline on the same period in 2008.

                Remortgaging has been stagnant throughout 2009, and will only recover once the base rate starts
                to rise.

                The supply of mortgage credit, critical to the effective functioning of the market, is slowly starting
                to increase, following a prolonged period of contraction.

                Key reasons to purchase this title


                - Understand what issues have driven market performance in Q3 2009.

                - View details of forecasts for the period up to 2013 to help plan your future strategies.

                - Review the impact of proposed FSA regulations affecting the mortgage market.



Contents:       CATALYST
                SUMMARY
                ANALYSIS
                Gross lending in Q3 2009 was well down on the same period in 2008, itself a quiet year
                UK gross lending fell by 36% in Q3 2009 to £39 billion, compared to Q3 2008
                Gross lending for the whole of 2009 is forecast to be 61% lower than the total for 2007
                Monthly gross advances have remained at a steady level for the duration of 2009
                House purchase activity has started to pick up in the last few months
                The market for remortgaging continues to be affected by the low base rate
                House prices have staged a recovery in the second half of 2009
                Price rises have been mainly driven by the lack of supply of properties and lower than expected
                unemployment
                Arrears and repossessions continue to rise more slowly than anticipated
                The supply of mortgage credit remains under pressure, but is starting to ease
                Trading in mortgage-backed securities has restarted
                The PBR points the way to widespread spending cuts in 2011 and beyond
                The stamp duty holiday will not be extended into 2010
                Gross lending is likely to stage a steady rather than spectacular recovery over the next few years
            The wider economic situation provides both hope and concern for the mortgage market in 2010 and
            beyond
            Datamonitor predicts that gross lending in the UK will rise to £235 billion in 2013
            Datamonitor has produced two alternative forecasts in recognition of the contradictory factors at
            work in the market
            The optimistic scenario sees the economy and consumer confidence recovering more quickly than
            expected
            The pessimistic scenario assumes that projected spending cuts and tax rises will hinder recovery
            A number of external developments will have direct consequences for the mortgage market
            The Financial Services Authority sets out its Mortgage Market Review
            The last lenders offering self-certification mortgages have pulled out of the market
            APPENDIX
            Supplementary data
            Definitions
            Bank of England base rate
            CAGR
            Gross advances
            Remortgaging
            RMBS
            Self-certification mortgage
            Methodology
            Forecasting methodology
            Further reading
            Ask the analyst
            Datamonitor consulting
            Disclaimer
            List of Tables
            Table 1: Forecast gross advances under the Datamonitor view, 2009-2013
            Table 2: Forecast gross advances under the optimistic view, 2009-2013
            Table 3: Forecast gross advances under the pessimistic view, 2009-2013
            Table 4: UK gross mortgage lending in third quarter, 2005-2009
            Table 5: UK annual gross mortgage approvals, 2003-2009
            Table 6: UK gross monthly approvals, 2006-2009
            Table 7: Monthly and annual changes in UK house prices, 2007-2009
            Table 8: UK gross approvals by type, 2007-2009
            Table 9: Quarterly changes in secured credit availability and credit scoring criteria, 2007-2009
            List of Figures
            Figure 1: Gross lending in Q3 2009 was very subdued compared to the same period in recent years
            Figure 2: Annual gross lending figures highlight the scale of the decline since 2007
            Figure 3: Monthly gross advances bottomed out in November 2008 and has held steady ever since
            Figure 4: Approvals for remortgages have stagnated in 2009, but have partially recovered for
            purchases
            Figure 5: House prices have been rising since the spring
            Figure 6: Mortgage credit availability has continued to tighten
            Figure 7: In the view of Datamonitor, gross lending will rise to £247 billion in 2013
            Figure 8: In the optimistic scenario, gross lending will reach £307 billion in 2013
            Figure 9: The pessimistic forecast sees gross lending stagnating in 2010 and 2011



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