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Sector-Based Approach for “Post-2012” Electricity Sector and

VIEWS: 83 PAGES: 33

									  Sector-Based Approach for “Post-2012”:
   Electricity Sector and Major Industries


                Jake Schmidt, International Program Manager
                          Ned Helme, President
                       Pedro Barata, Senior Fellow
                        Center for Clean Air Policy
                                    *******
IEA-ENEL Workshop: Sectoral Approaches for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in the Power Sector
                                 30-31 October 2006
                                     Rome, Italy
                    Presentation Outline
●   Sector-based approach
    » What is it?
●   Overview of sector GHG emissions and projections
    » Global, Non-Annex I
●   Overall structural options
    » Sector-wide & Country-based sectoral
●   “Straw” sector proposal
    »   Covered sectors and countries
    »   Establishing the “No Lose” Target
    »   Technology Finance Package
    »   Application to Developed Countries, Emissions Trading/CDM
●   Sectoral Program’s potential to maintain 450ppm path
    » Three Global Scenarios & Preliminary Results
    About the Center for Clean Air Policy
Non-profit Washington, DC, Prague, and Brussels based
environmental think-tank committed to advancing pragmatic and cost-
effective air quality and climate policy through analysis, dialogue, and
education
Leader in several international climate initiatives on international
emissions trading, the CDM, and post-2012 options
 » Dialogue on Future International Actions to Address Global Climate
   Change (the FAD) brings together senior climate negotiators from 30
   countries to discuss options for post-2012 climate regime
Involved in a number of capacity building and analytical projects in
developing countries, including China, India, Brazil, Mexico, and the
Caribbean
Lead analyst on project to help design the EU CO2 emissions trading
system and MRV program.
What is a Sectoral Approach to Post-2012
           GHG Reductions?

●   Bottom-up method for encouraging developing
    country sectoral (e.g. steel, cement, electricity)
    pledges and for deriving Annex I country targets
●   Based on analysis of what is technologically feasible
    and economically cost-effective in each industrial
    sector both globally and in each country
●   For developing countries, goal is no-lose target –
    pledge to reach intensity level in given sector,
    rewarded if achieved, no penalty if not achieved
●   For A1, creates building block for next national target
               Global Sector GHG Emissions (without LUCF)
                      & Sectoral CO2 Projection
                                        2000                                                                Projections
                   Unallocated Non-                                                   40000
                       CO2 Gas
                          3%
              Other sectors                                    Electricity            35000
                   6%                                             25%
   Residential &                                                                      30000
   Commercial
       8%
                                                                                      25000


                                                                                      20000
Agriculture
   14%                                                                 Unallocated    15000
                                                                      Autoproducers
                                                                            3%
                                                                                      10000
                                                                    Other Energy
                                                                   Industries, 7%      5000
      Transport
                                                              Iron & Steel, 2%
         15%                                                                              0
                                                            Chemical &
                           Other                                                          2000              2010                2020               2030
                                                           Petrochemical,
                       Industries, 4%                   Aluminum, 0%
                                                                2%
                                                     Cement, 3%                                                       Year
                                              Paper, Pulp and
                                Non-CO2        Printing, 0%
                                 Industrial                                                   Energy   Industry    Transpo rtatio n    Other Sectors*
                              Processes, 2%


                                Source: Author’s calculation, see Schmidt et al., 2006
      Non-Annex I Sector GHG Emissions (w/o LUCF)
             & Sectoral CO2 Projection
                                  2000                                                                      Projections
                                                                                      20000
                      Unallocated Non-                    Electricity
                         CO2 Gas                             21%                      17500
                             9%

      Other sectors                                                                   15000
           9%

                                                                                      12500
                                                                 Unallocated
Residential &                                                   Autoproducers
 Commercial                                                          1%               10000
    5%
                                                                   Other Energy
                                                                                       7500
                                                                  Industries, 8%

                                                                   Iron & Steel, 3%    5000

                                                                 Chemical &
    Agriculture                                                                        2500
                                                                Petrochemical
      19%
                                                                     3%
                                                              Aluminum, 0%                0
                                                           Cement, 6%                     2000              2010               2020             2030

                            Transport                    Paper, Pulp and                                              Year
                               9% Other                    Printing, 0%
                                                  Non-CO2
                                    Industries    Industrial
                                       6%      Processes, 1%
                                                                                        Energy   Industry          Transportation     Other Sectors*




                               Source: Author’s calculation, see Schmidt et al., 2006
      Establishing the “No-Lose” Sector Target

●   A voluntary “no lose” intensity
    target (e.g., CO2 / ton of steel) is
    established
     » No penalty for not meeting the
       pledge
●   Emissions reductions beyond the          “Contribution to
                                             the Atmosphere

    “voluntary pledge” are eligible for      Eligible for Sale

    sale
     » As emissions reductions credits
       (ERCs) for sale to developed
       countries
     » Voluntary intensity target
       effectively becomes the country’s
       crediting (“CDM”) baseline
          “Technology Financing and Assistance
                       Package”

●   Industrialized countries, international financial institutions (IFIs), and export
    credit agencies (ECAs) provide a package of technology finance and assistance
    incentives to help participating non-Annex I countries establish and meet
    more aggressive “no lose” targets
    Designed to make these new technologies available to firms in developing
    countries while providing reasonable profits and property rights protections for
    the industrialized-country entities that provide the technologies.
    Scope of amount based upon bottom-up assessment in targeted sectors
     » Designed to leverage private sector finance
     » Differing financing tools (e.g., “soft” loans, grants, etc.) would be utilized as
       appropriate
     » Financing will decline (and end) over time as these technologies become commercially
       viable due to economies of scale (e.g., German wind costs)
    Package could include:
     »   commitments to demonstration and pilot projects
     »   a pool of concessionary financing with WB, ECAs, loans, grants, & securitization
     »   support for development of small- and medium-sized enterprises
     »   Capacity building
     »   Etc.
                    Negotiation Process
Negotiation of the program could proceed as follows:

1)   Agree on which countries will participate – minimum global coverage
     needed in each sector
2)   Independent agency defines energy intensity benchmark for a given
     sector as starting point for negotiations – a la Triptych EU process
3)   Negotiate a GHG intensity using such factors as the energy intensity
     BAT, fuel mix, and cost – one for new facilities and one for existing in
     each sector
4)   Link the program to a technology finance package – assistance from
     tech finance is incentive to stronger pledge levels
5)   Link to Annex I target setting process
6)   Agree on structure of trading, link to CDM
        Key Operational Questions?

●   What sectors?
●   Country-based or Industry-based?
●   Structure of the target?
●   Creation of emissions reduction credits?
●   What role for Annex I?
●   Role and structure of a “technology financing and
    assistance package”?
●   How does the sectoral pledge and financing package
    relate to the CDM?
                       Which Sectors Covered?
●   Program could focus on the Energy and Major Industry Sectors
     » electricity, iron & steel, aluminum, oil refining, cement & lime, paper, pulp & printing
     » relatively small number of entities, easier data collection, relatively homogenous products (except
       oil refining and pulp & paper), and operate in international trade (except electricity)
     » 33% of non-Annex I emissions (2000; w/o LUCF)
     » 20% of global emissions (2000; w/o LUCF)
     » Bottom-up definitions (e.g., electricity facilities >20 MW) used to define individual facilities involved
       in the system
     » Only direct emissions (e.g., on-site fuel combustion) included for the sectors




                                                                                             Source: Author’s
                                                                                             calculation, see
                                                                                             Schmidt et al., 2006
    Small # of Large Electricity Facilities
Number of Non-Annex I Facilities with Greater than 100 KT CO2/year (“top 20”)
    »      1140 facilities in the “top 10” countries; additional 304 facilities in the “top 20” countries

                                                                  Power
               500     462
               450
               400
               350
        # of




               300
               250
                             193
               200
               150                           101
               100                 68              71             73
                                        56              50             40   40 55               44                50
                                                             26                     26 11            27   13 29
               50                                                                           9
                 0
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                                                                                      Source: IEA GHG CO2 Database v.2006
            Country – based Structure
●   Program will aim to include all major developing
    countries, but at least 80% of sector’s emissions
    » Country responsible for tracking and ensuring “no lose” targets
      met
●   Variety of approaches could be used:
    » Ten developing countries w/ the highest emissions in each sector
    » Sufficient countries to cover 80% of sector’s DC emissions
●   Key is to cover enough of the sector to address leakage
    concerns
●   Select internationally competitive industry sectors - for
    many sectors, small number of countries account for a
    large share of emissions
                                                               Possible Thresholds: “Top 10”

                                             Small number of non-Annex I countries account for sizeable share of
                                             non-Annex I and global emissions for these sectors
                      20




                      15             10
Number of Countries




                                                                              4                             7
                      10



                                                          6
                      5              10                                       9              2                              2
                                                                                                            7
                                                          3                                  4                              4
                      0
                                       y               teel                   al                             e             ing
                                ri ci t           &S                  em ic             i num            to n         rin t
                       El ec
                            t
                                                                  roch             Al um              mes           &P
                                           Iron               P et                               & Li           ulp
                                                  al     &                                  en t           er, P
                                              mi c                                     Cem             Pap
                                           Che

                            80% of NA1 Sectoral Emissions                            90% of NA1 Sectoral Emissions



          Number of participating countries required to cover 80-90%
          of non-Annex I GHG emissions in particular sectors in 2000.


                                                              Source: Author’s calculation; see Schmidt et al., 2006
                                                              Note: non-metallic minerals is cement and limestone; non-ferrous metals is mostly aluminum
                                                              Note: See appendix for list of countries implied by this threshold
                      Alternative Structure:
                      Global Industry-based

●   Covers all or major actors in the global sector to address concerns of:
     » Leakage: e.g., firms moving operations from covered to non-covered
       countries
     » Competitiveness: e.g., one firm is covered, but its competitor are not
    We suggest that a sectoral approach be country-based since:
     » A small number of countries generally responsible for the vast majority of
       the GHG emissions in each sector
         – thus competition concerns addressed through participation of small number of
           countries
     » Countries have much clearer legal authority to ensure that firms operating
       within their borders comply with program requirements
         – establishing a new legal institution to enforce sector-wide targets would likely
           require lengthy and contentious international negotiations.
         How is the Target Established?
   Experts assess and define energy-intensity benchmarks in each sector to
   use as a starting point for discussions.
    » Defined as energy intensity of commercially available technology
         –   Separate benchmarks could be established one based upon technological potential
             and the other reflecting cost
         –   Separate benchmarks for new and existing facilities
    » Reflects a limited number of the major processes within the sector
    » Updated regularly to reflect changes in technology
   Non-annex I countries pledge a carbon-intensity level that they can meet
   without assistance.
    » based upon the benchmark, fuel mix, impact on competitiveness of their
      products, and other factors (e.g., energy security, air quality, and sustainable
      development)
   Annex I countries negotiate with developing countries on specific financial
   and other support–through a Technology Finance and Assistance Package–
   to encourage non-Annex I countries to ultimately commit to stricter “no-lose”
   emissions intensity levels.
⇒ Likely negotiation will produce different “no lose” targets for each country,
  but will begin from the same starting point—the benchmark
                          Emissions Trading
●   Emissions Reduction Credits (ERCs)
     » Earned sector-wide; managed by individual participating countries
     » Need to be converted from rate-based to a fixed quantity of reductions
●   Ex-post conversion conducted every two years
     » ERCs equal difference b/t “no lose” target and actual intensity target multiplied
       by actual operations in previous two years
     » Therefore ERCs calculated two years into the five year target period and at
       the end
●   ERCs eligible into other trading systems (e.g., EU ETS)
                  Developed Countries
●   Retain “hard economy-wide targets” (e.g., 30% below 1990 levels)–
    use Benchmarks as building block similar to the EU Triptych
    approach
     » Bottom-up development of the sectors AAUs (e.g., national allocation
       plans) using the energy-intensity benchmark
     » Other sector’s targets would be developed and added to the electricity
       and major industry AAUs to come up w/ the nat’l target
●   Helps “Levels the playing field” since the covered sector in both
    developing and developed countries start w/ the same basis for
    their target setting
     » Some differentiation is likely, but moves the int’l process forward in
       “leveling the playing field”
●   Trading allowed to provide covered sectors flexibility to improve
    cost-effectiveness, helps to offset disadvantage that DCs have
    sectoral intensity targets rather than hard targets
●   Further, for some sectors developing countries are as or more
    efficient than their developed country counterparts
                  Emissions Implications
                  of the Sectoral Program

●   “Top-down” analysis conducted by ECOFYS
     » Evaluated implications of sector-based proposal on emissions level in
       key countries & global CO2 stabilization trajectories
●   Data, Sectors, & Countries used in the analysis
     » Data: physical production, energy use, and GHG emissions
     » Sectors: electricity, iron & steel, cement
            91% of emissions covered in this proposal
     » Countries:
         – Annex I: EU-15, USA, Japan, Canada, Russia
         – Non-Annex I: Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea
            72% of total global emissions; 79% of three sectors’ global emissions
●   Three Global Scenarios
     » “Mild,” “Strong,” and “Sectoral Only”
                           Three Global Scenarios
Scenario                       Condition
                               -15% below 1990 level in
           Annex I excl. USA
                               2020
                                                                                   Reduce carbon intensity of production
 “Mild”                        +10% above 1990 level in                            (C/kWh) by 3% per year; growth in
           USA                                                      Electricity
                               2020                                                electricity production reduced by 0.5% for
                                                                                   EE improvements
           Non-Annex I         Reference
                               -30% below 1990 level in                            Convergence in CO2/t steel by 2025 to
           Annex I excl. USA                                        Iron & Steel
                               2020                                                0.80 (today’s avg. 1.63)

“Strong” USA                   +0% at 1990 level in 2020
                                                                                   Convergence in CO2/tcement by 2020 to
                                                                      Cement
                               “Sectoral” for electricity, iron &                  0.60 (today’s avg. 0.78)
           Non-Annex I
                               steel and cement
“Sector                        “Sectoral” for electricity, iron &
           All countries
 only”                         steel and cement

●   Annex I countries’ economy-wide emissions are limited to fixed quantities
     » NOT implied that emissions reductions must be achieved
     » Domestic emissions could exceed these levels if additional ERCs were purchased
       Annex I countries can purchase ERCs from both covered sectors w/ “No Lose” target
       or other sectors (e.g., transportation through sectoral CDM)
                 Preliminary Results: Through 2020

         52500

                    Reference
                                                                   6000
         50000
                    Mild
                                                                   5000
         47500      Only s ectoral
                    Strong
         45000                                                     4000




                                                          MMtCO2
         42500                                                     3000
MMtCOe
     2




         40000
                                                                   2000
         37500
                                                                   1000
         35000

                                                                     0
         32500
                                                                          Iron and steel      Cement            Electricity
         30000

         27500
                                                                                    Reference Case     Sector Program
             1990            2000    2010    2020
                                                       Non-Annex I country model GHG emissions in 2020 in the
                                                            electricity, cement, and iron and steel sectors.
  Global GHG emissions under the sectoral scenarios.
Implications for Emissions Stabilization
      Levels: Preliminary Results
                                      14


                                      12


                                      10
         Global CO2 emissions (GtC)
                                       8


                                       6

                                                 Reference
                                       4         Mild
                                                 Only sectoral
                                       2         Strong


                                       0
                                       1990   2000           2010   2020   2030   2040    2050


      Global CO2 emissions required to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations
                        at 450 ppmv in the sectoral models.


    Required reductions for global CO2 stabilization levels after
    2020:
     » 450ppm—Strong: 2.2% per year; Mild: 6.5% per year
     » 550ppm—Strong: 0.6% per year; Mild: 0.9% per yea
                                                                                         Source: Höhne et al., 2005
                                    Conclusions
●   Sectoral No-Lose target approach can maintain needed progress in 2020 to stay on
    course for 450 ppm CO2 concentration goal provided A1 countries take strong targets
    for 2020
●   No-lose target has political and cost-effectiveness attractions – simplifies current CDM
    issues
●   “No lose” sectoral targets have garnered significant interest among developing
    countries and other Parties
     »   Mentioned in several interventions to the UNFCCC Dialogue (e.g., Mexico and South Africa)
         and garnered quiet interest among other countries in CCAP FAD
    Begins to move int’l process forward by:
     »   Recognizing and encouraging “unilateral actions” by developing countries (e.g., China’s vehicle
         efficiency standard)
     »   Addressing leakage and competition since all the major players in a given sector participate
         and starting point for target setting is same energy intensity benchmark
     »   Covering all facilities in a given sector (not just the ones reducing emissions as in the CDM)
     »   Encouraging developing country “contributions to the atmosphere”
     »   Providing specific and targeted technology finance for advanced and more expensive
         technologies
    Potentially viable for other secotrs as well, e.g.:
     »   Vehicle efficiency
     »   Appliance and lighting effiiciency
                                           References
   For more information, visit our website: www.ccap.org/international/future.htm

Paper on proposal:
     Schmidt, J., N. Helme, J. Lee. (2006). Sector-based Approach to the Post-2012 Climate
     Change Policy Architecture. Future Actions Dialogue Working Paper. August. Available
     at: http://www.ccap.org/international/Sector%20Straw%20Proposal%20-
     %20FINAL%20for%20FAD%20Working%20Paper%20%7E%208%2025%2006.pdf


Hmphreys, K. and M. Mahasenan (2002). Toward a Sustainable Cement Industry: Substudy 8: Climate Change,
   commissioned by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, Battelle.

IEA. (2003). CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion, 1970-2001. Paris, France.
IEA. (2006). IEA GHG CO2 Emissions Database, v.2006.
Marland, G., T.A. Boden, and R. J. Andres. (2003). "Global, Regional, and National Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions." In Trends:
     A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National
     Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. Available online at:
     http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.htm.
Schaefer, D. O., D. Godwin, and J. Harnisch (2004). "Estimating Future Emissions and Potential Reductions of HFCs,
    PFCs, and SF6." Energy Journal.
Scheehle, E. A. and Kruger, D. (2004). “Global antropogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions”. Energy Journal
Dialogue on Future International Actions to
Address Global Climate Change (the FAD)

 Brings together senior climate negotiators from approx. 15 developed
 and 15 developing countries
  » Meets face-to-face biannually and through workgroups via conference
    call to develop specific ideas in b/t meetings.
 Informal, off-the-record forum to discuss mitigation and adaptation
 options for a possible post-2012 international framework for climate
 policy
 Funding for the project supported by governments of 15 countries.
 CCAP produces FAD working papers and will produce a
 compendium in 2006 on the project and options discussed.
 For all presentations and finalized working papers from the process,
 see: www.ccap.org/international/future.htm
         Annex A: Global Sector Emissions in 2000
                                                 (without LUCF)


     World




    Annex I




Non-Annex I




 -2500        0   2500     5000   7500   10000   12500    15000    17500    20000     22500    25000    27500     30000   32500   35000
                                                             MMTCO2
   Electricity                              Unallocated Autoproducers                       Other Energy Industries
   Iron & Steel                             Chemical & Petrochemical                        Non-Metallic Minerals
   Non-CO2 Industrial Processes             Other Manufacturing Industries & Construction   Transport
   Agriculture                              Residential                                     Other sectors
   Unallocated Non-CO2 Gas


                      Source: Author’s calculation, see Schmidt et al., 2005; IEA, 2002; Scheele and Kruger, 2004;
                      Schaefer et al., 2004
            Annex B: “Top 10” Non-Annex I
             Countries for Covered Sectors
                     Top Ten Developing Country GHG Emitters for the Electricity and Major Industrial Sectors

                                                Chemical &                                Cement &        Paper, Pulp &
       Electricity            Iron & Steel                          Aluminum
                                               Petrochemical                              Limestone         Printing

China                      China             China              China              China              China

India                      India             India              Brazil             India              Brazil

South Africa               Brazil            U.A.E.             India              South Korea        South Korea

South Korea                South Africa      South Africa       Venezuela          Brazil             India

Mexico                     Mexico            South Korea        Chile              Indonesia          Indonesia

Iran                       South Korea       Brazil             Argentina          Mexico             Mexico

Saudi Arabia               Venezuela         Mexico             Bahrain            Thailand           Colombia

Kazakhstan                 Indonesia         Iran               Kazakhstan         Pakistan           Thailand

Indonesia                  Kazakhstan        Indonesia          South Korea        Egypt              Argentina

Thailand                   Iran              Venezuela          Macedonia          Iran               Chile

Source: Author’s calculation, see Schmidt et al., 2006
    Annex C: “No Lose” Target and CDM

●   New pledge process would replace CDM in the sectors and
    countries participating
    » ERCs in these sectors generated by exceeding the sectoral
      intensity target
●   For sectors not included in the proposal, CDM would proceed as
    in the past, but:
    » Energy-intensity benchmark developed in pledge process would
      become minimum threshold for CDM baseline for new facilities
    » CDM Meth process would continue to set precedents for the final
      CDM project baseline on a project, country, or regional basis as
      appropriate
    » Sectoral pledge could create a new sectoral CDM process for these
      countries
       Annex D.1: Electricity Generation Efficiency


                                 Coal
                    Generation efficiency coal                                                                                                       Oil
                                                                                                                                  Generation efficiency oil                                                                                                      Gas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Generation efficiency gas
0.45                                                                                                          0.50                                                                                                         0.60
0.40                                                                                                          0.45
                                                                                                              0.40                                                                                                         0.50
0.35
0.30                                                                                                          0.35
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           0.40
                                                                                                              0.30
0.25
                                                                                                              0.25                                                                                                         0.30
0.20
                                                                                                              0.20
0.15                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0.20
                                                                                                              0.15
0.10                                                                                                          0.10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           0.10
0.05                                                                                                          0.05
0.00                                                                                                          0.00                                                                                                         0.00
       EU15



                     Japan

                             Canada
                                      Russia



                                                        China
                                                                India

                                                                        Mexico




                                                                                                                     EU15
                                               Brazil
              USA




                                                                                                South Korea




                                                                                                                                  Japan

                                                                                                                                          Canada
                                                                                                                                                   Russia



                                                                                                                                                                     China
                                                                                                                                                                             India

                                                                                                                                                                                     Mexico




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  EU15
                                                                                                                                                            Brazil
                                                                                                                            USA




                                                                                                                                                                                                             South Korea




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Japan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Canada

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Russia



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   China

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           India

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mexico
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Brazil
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         USA




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           South Korea
                                                                                 South Africa




                                                                                                                                                                                              South Africa




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            South Africa
                                                                                                                 Source: Hoehne et al., 2005.
              Annex D.2: Electricity GHG Intensity


                                                                                                                                                     CO2-intensity total

100%                                                                                                                                    1
 90%                                                                                                                                  0.9
 80%                                                                                                         Renew able
                                                                                                                                      0.8
 70%                                                                                                                                  0.7




                                                                                                                          kgCO2/kWh
                                                                                                             Nuclear
 60%                                                                                                                                  0.6
                                                                                                             Fossil
 50%                                                                                                                                  0.5
 40%                                                                                                                                  0.4
 30%                                                                                                                                  0.3
 20%                                                                                                                                  0.2
 10%                                                                                                                                  0.1
  0%                                                                                                                                    0




                                                                                                                                            EU15


                                                                                                                                                         Japan
                                                                                                                                                                 Canada
                                                                                                                                                                          Russia


                                                                                                                                                                                            China
                                                                                                                                                                                                    India
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Mexico
                                                                                                                                                                                   Brazil
                                                                                                                                                   USA




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    South Korea
                                                                       Mexico
              USA




                                                                                South Africa
                                              Brazil




                                                                                                                                                                                                                     South Africa
       EU15


                    Japan




                                                               India
                            Canada




                                                       China




                                                                                               South Korea
                                     Russia




                                                                                                  Source: Hoehne et al., 2005.
Annex D.3: Electricity GHG Reference Case
                Emissions

                 14000

                                                                      ROW
                 12000
                                                                      South Korea
                                                                      South Africa
                 10000                                                Mexico
                                                                      India
                 8000                                                 China
      MtCO2eq.




                                                                      Brazil
                                                                      Russia
                 6000
                                                                      Canada
                                                                      Japan
                 4000
                                                                      USA
                                                                      EU-15
                 2000


                    0
                    1990   1995    2000   2005   2010   2015   2020



                                  Source: Hoehne et al., 2005.
     Annex D.4: Electricity Scenarios Analyzed

    Scenario                     Condition
    Convergence in thermal                        Aver.       Max       Converg.
    efficiency
                                 Coal                0.34       0.40        0.42
                                 Oil                 0.35       0.44        0.45
                                 Gas                 0.37       0.48        0.54
    Convergence in CO2/kWh per                    Aver.       Min       Converg.
    fuel
                                 Coal                0.96       0.73        0.69
                                 Oil                 0.68       0.39        0.4
                                 Gas                 0.52       0.27        0.28
    Convergence in CO2/kWh                        Aver.       Min       Converg.
                                                     0.52       0.05        0.45
    Reduction on CO2 intensity   Reduce by 3% per year


Growth in electricity production from IMAGE implementation of SRES scenarios for regions
applied to countries. Reduced by 0.5% for improvements in energy efficiency in appliances
Annex D.5: Sectoral Scenarios All Countries:
                Electricity

                14000

                12000

                10000
    Mt CO2eq.




                8000

                6000                                Reference
                                                    Converging thermal efficiency
                4000                                Convergence of CO2/kWh per fuel
                                                    Convergence of CO2/kWh
                2000
                                                    Reduction in CO2 intensity

                   0
                        1990

                               1992
                                      1994
                                             1996
                                                    1998

                                                           2000
                                                                  2002
                                                                         2004
                                                                                2006
                                                                                       2008

                                                                                              2010

                                                                                                     2012

                                                                                                            2014
                                                                                                                   2016
                                                                                                                          2018
                                                                                                                                 2020
                                                                                       Source: Hoehne et al., 2005.

								
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