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					       MULTNOMAH COUNTY
DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY JUSTICE


     JUVENILE CRIME TRENDS
          REPORT: 1998




                       APRIL 1999

                         Prepared by:
       Thach Nguyen, Program Evaluation Specialist
      Scott Keir, Ph.D., Principal Evaluation Specialist
INTRODUCTION
The following report documents key performance indicators of the juvenile
justice side of the Department of Community Justice (DCJ) in Multnomah
County through the presentation of tables and graphs. Included are the
following measures:
     Referrals and unduplicated counts of juveniles: 1993-1998 (Table 1)
     Criminal referrals: 1993-1998 (Figure 1)
     Recidivism rate: 1993-1997 (Figure 2)
     Type of offense committed: 1993-1998 (Table 2; Figure 3)
     National and county arrest statistics: 1996-1997 (Table 3)
     Multnomah County juvenile referrals as a proportion of the total county
        population: 1998 (Table 4; Figure 4)
     Population of Youth in Multnomah County Compared to Juvenile
        Offenders: 1998 (Figure 5)
     Ethnicity, gender, and age of offenders :1993-1998 (Tables 5-7)
     Prior referrals: 1993-1998 (Table 8)


This information is utilized by department managers, program administrators
and line staff for determining those areas in which the department does a good
job as well as those areas where the department should focus more attention.
The performance trends tables and graphs presented here are updated and
distributed on an annual basis.




Juvenile Crime Trends Report, 3/20/2010   1
                                            Table 1: Juvenile Justice Overall Performance Trends
    CALENDAR YEAR                                               1993*        1994*        1995**        1996**    1997**      1998**
Total Number of Criminal
Referrals (Misdemeanors and                                      6722         6662         6578          6301      6097        5602
Felonies)
Number of Unduplicated                                           4637         4732         4788          4574      4377        3943
Juvenile Offenders
                                                                                                                                 not
Recidivism Rate                                                 34.5%        32.5%        32.4%         32.8%      32.2%     available
                                                                                                                            until 1/2000
   Date Source:                                 * TJIS data base
                                                ** TJIS data base & District Attorney BM 11 data base

    Since 1993, the number of criminal referrals has decreased every year.
    The 12-month recidivism rate has remained stable for the last 4 years.
    The number of juvenile offenders decreased 15% from 1993 to 1998.




                                                                   FIGURE 1: Criminal Referrals

                                                       6722         6662         6578
                                         7000                                                   6301       6097
                                                                                                                     5602
                                         6000
          Number of Criminal Referrals




                                         5000


                                         4000


                                         3000


                                         2000


                                         1000


                                            0
                                                   1993         1994         1995         1996          1997      1998
                                                                                Calendar Year




   Juvenile Crime Trends Report, 3/20/2010                                          2
                                                           FIGURE 2: Juvenile Offenders and
                                                                   Recidivism Rate
                                                           4732           4788
                                   5000     4637                                         4574           4377

                                                                                                                       3943
     Number ofJuvenile Offenders




                                   4000



                                   3000



                                   2000            34.5%          32.5%          32.4%          32.8%          32.2%



                                   1000



                                      0
                                            1993           1994           1995           1996           1997           1998
                                                                          Calendar Year

                                          Number of Unduplicated Juvenile Offenders                       Recidivism Rate


 Since 1993, the number of juvenile offenders coming to DCJ has decreased
  by almost 15%.
 Since 1993, the recidivism rate has remained very consistent (between 32%
  and 35%).
 Combined with the decreasing number of juvenile criminal referrals, the
  number of recidivists has decreased substantially (1600 juveniles in 1993 to
  1409 in 1997).




 Juvenile Crime Trends Report, 3/20/2010                                         3
                                              Table 2: Type of Offense
MOST SERIOUS             1993        1994           1995       1996         1997        1998      PERCENT          PERCENT
  OFFENSE                                                                                         CHANGE           CHANGE
                                                                                                  1993-1998        1997-1998
Person offenses          1360        1254           1250       1155         1162        1194         - 12%             + 3%
Criminal homicide          16          23             16         31           14          8          - 50%             -43%
      Sex offenses        231         204            182        166          162         165         - 29%             + 2%
          Robbery         172         184            186        150          111         117         - 32%             + 5%
           Assault        941         843            866        808          875         904          - 4%             + 3%

Property offenses        4002        3934           3808       3518         3169        2729         - 3 2%           - 14%
          Burglary        364         369            337        350          405         247          - 32%           - 39%
 Criminal mischief        632         677            622        661          574         479          - 24%           - 17%
       (vandalism)
     Fraud/forgery         94          92             76         61           81          68         - 28%             - 16%
             Theft       2124        2168           2213       1991         1661        1578         - 40%              - 5%
Motor vehicle theft       729         575            535        422          406         335         - 54%             - 17%
            Arson          59          53             25         33           42          22         - 63%             - 48%

Drug offenses             240         253            298        393          445         431         + 80%             - 3%
Weapons offenses          178         203            186        154          175         119         - 33%            - 32%
Other offenses *          942        1018           1036       1081         1146        1129         + 20%             - 1%

Total Criminal           6722        6662           6578       6301         6097        5602         - 17%             - 8%
Referrals
  Data Source: TJIS database & DA BM11 data base.
  “Other” offenses include, e.g., Criminal Trespass, Harassment, Menacing, Disorderly Conduct, Reckless Endangering Another Person,
  Intimidation.

       Criminal referrals continued to decline. The number of criminal referrals
        decreased 17% from 1993 to 1998.
       The number of person offenses in 1998 was 12% below the number of person
        offenses in 1993.
       Property offenses continued to decline. The number of property offenses
        decreased 32% from 1993 to 1998.
       The number of drug offenses increased 80% from 1993 to 1998.
        (See footnote on p. 5 regarding impact of policy changes on this increase.)
       The number of weapons offenses was the lowest since 1993.




          Juvenile Crime Trends Report, 3/20/2010              4
                                               FIGURE 3: Type of Offense *

                            5000

                                     4002         3934         3808
                            4000
                                                                               3518         3169
       Number of Referral




                                                                                                        2729
                            3000



                            2000
                                      1360        1254         1250           1155          1162        1194

                            1000
                                                                               393          445         431
                                      240          253          298

                                          178            203          186          154            175      119
                               0
                                      1993        1994         1995            1996         1997        1998
                                                                Calendar Year

                             Person Offenses      Property Offenses         Drug Offenses     Weapons Offenses


* - It is always important to consider the potential impact of various law enforcement policy and
ordinance changes on any criminal offense rate. In other words, the increase in drug offenses over
time could at least partially be explained by the increased enforcement of this offense by the Portland
Police Bureau. Examples of changes in law enforcement strategy which could have effected the
number of referrals to DCJ over time were: Operation North Star (started in the summer of 1996),
Operation Lightning (started in 1997-98), and the designation of Drug Free Zones (started in 1992
with zones being re-authorized or expanded every three years). Therefore, the increases experienced
for drug referrals over the past three years may not necessarily be a “real” increase in criminal
behavior for this type of juvenile offense in Multnomah County.




   Juvenile Crime Trends Report, 3/20/2010                        5
   Table 3: National Juvenile Arrests and Multnomah County Criminal Referrals*
 MOST SERIOUS                 MULTNOMAH                        NATIONAL                 MULTNOMAH               NATIONAL
   OFFENSE                     # OF CRIMINAL               ESTIMATED # OF                    PERCENT              PERCENT
                                REFERRALS**              JUVENILE ARRESTS***                 CHANGE               CHANGE
                              1996          1997            1996            1997            1996-1997             1996-1997
Person offenses               1155          1162          152,400         141,900              + 1%                  - 7%
   Criminal homicide            31            14            2,900           2,500              - 55%                 - 14%
        Sex offenses           166           162           22,800          24,000               - 2%                 + 5%
             Robbery           150           111           50,100          39,500              - 26%                 - 21%
              Assault          808           875           76,600          75,900              + 8%                   - 1%

Property offenses             3518          3169          897,600         857,800             - 10%                  - 4%
            Burglary           350           405          135,100         131,000             + 16%                  - 3%
   Criminal mischief           661           574          141,600         136,500             - 13%                  - 4%
         (vandalism)
       Fraud/forgery            61            81           35,600          19,800             + 33%                  - 44%
               Theft          1991          1661          502,400         493,900             - 17%                   - 2%
  Motor vehicle theft          422           406           72,800          66,600              - 4%                   - 9%
               Arson            33            42           10,100          10,000             + 27%                   - 1%

Drug offenses                  393           445          211,500         220,700             + 13%                  + 4%

Weapons offenses               154           175           52,800         52,200              + 12%                  - 1%

Other offenses                1081          1146          501,200         508,000              + 6%                  + 1%

Total                         6301          6097         1,815,500       1,780,600             - 3%                  - 2%
        National data for 1998 is not yet available, so 1996-1997 data have been used here.
        Data Source: ** - TJIS database and District Attorney BM 11 database.
                    *** - Crime in the United States, 1996 and 1997 (Washington, DC : US Government
                           Printing Office, 1997). Arrest estimates were developed by the National Center for Juvenile
                           Justice.

    Most of the trends experienced at the national level from 1996 to 1997 are also
     seen in Multnomah County although some county changes are more dramatic
     than those at the national level.
    Criminal homicide decreased nationally (14%) but at an even larger rate in the
     county (55%).
    Robbery decreased at the national level (21%) but again at a larger rate in the
        county (26%).




        Juvenile Crime Trends Report, 3/20/2010                6
 Table 4: Multnomah County Juvenile Population (ages 10-17) & Juvenile Offenders
       CALENDAR YEAR                                   1993           1994             1995            1996             1997         1998
Juvenile Population (ages 10-17)*                     57,846         59,198           62,881          64,737           66,471       64,293
Number of Unduplicated Juvenile                        4637           4732             4788            4574             4377         3943
Offenders**
Percent of Juvenile Offenders ***                      8.0%           8.0%             7.6%            7.0%             6.6%        6.1%
        Data Source: * Center for Population Research and Census, Portland State University
                   ** TJIS data base & District Attorney BM 11 data base
                  *** % of Juvenile Offenders was calculated by dividing the number of juvenile offenders by
                       the number of 10-17 year olds in Multnomah County.


                                        FIGURE 4 - Multnomah County Juvenile Population
                                                     and Juvenile Offenders
                                70000                                               64,737          66,471
                                                                    62,881                                          64,293
                                        57,846        59,198

                                60000


                                50000
              Number of Youth




                                40000


                                30000


                                20000
                                               4637          4732            4788            4574            4377            3943
                                               8.0%          8.0%            7.6%            7.0%            6.6%            6.1%
                                10000


                                    0
                                        1993          1994          1995            1996            1997            1998
                                                                      Calendar Year


                                                 10-17 Age Group      # and % of Juvenile Offenders



      The percent of juvenile offenders from Multnomah County has been decreasing
       (6.6% in 1997) while the number of youth residing in Multnomah County has
       been increasing (66,471 in 1997).
      In 1998, the number of youth in Multnomah County decreased (first time in 5
       years), but the proportion of juvenile offenders decreased again (6.1%).




        Juvenile Crime Trends Report, 3/20/2010                        7
                                        Figure 5
      Population of Youth in Multnomah County Compared to Juvenile Offenders: 1998

                                                Violent Offenders**
                        Non-Violent                     880
                                                                             Measure 11 Violent
                        Offenders                      1.37%
                                                                               Offenders*
                          2,896                                                     167
                           4.50%                                                   0.26%




                                                                                                     Juveniles NOT in
                                                                                                      trouble with the
                                                                                                  juvenile justice system
                                                                                                           60,350
                                                                                                           93.87%

          N = 64,293
                      Most Youth are Not Involved in the Juvenile Justice System

Data Source: Center for Population Research and Census, Portland State University; TJIS database & District Attorney BM 11 database

  * Measure 11 Violent Offenses included: Aggravated Murder, Murder, Conspiracy to Commit Murder, Manslaughter I,
  Manslaughter II, Attempted Murder, Rape I, Rape II, Robbery I, Robbery II, Assault I, and Assault II.

  ** Other Violent offenses were defined by 26 allegations. Included are referrals for 23 felony charges: Arson I, Arson II, Assault
  III, Attempted Assault I, Attempted Assault II, Attempt Rape I, Kidnapping I, Kidnapping II, Possession Weapon in a Public
  Building, Rape III, Riot, Robbery III, Unlawful Sexual Penetration I, Sex Abuse I, Sex Abuse II, Sodomy I, Sodomy II, Sodomy
  III, Throw Object Overpass I, Unlawful Manufacture Destructive Device, Unlawful Possession Machine Gun, Unlawful Use
  Weapon, Unlawful Possession Weapon; and 3 misdemeanor charges: Assault IV, Recklessly Endangerment of Another Person,
  Assault Public Safety Officer.


   Almost 94% of the youth in Multnomah County has never been involved with the
      Multnomah County juvenile justice system.
   The total of violent offenders and Measure 11 violent offenders make up less than
    2% of all youth in Multnomah County.




          Juvenile Crime Trends Report, 3/20/2010                 8
                              Table 5: Race of Juvenile Offenders
       RACE                 1993             1994          1995           1996      1997      1998
African-American             23%              22%           21%            22%       22%       23%
Asian                         5%               5%            6%             5%        5%        5%
Caucasian                    63%              63%           64%            63%       63%       63%
Hispanic                      5%               6%            7%             8%        8%        8%
Native-American               2%               1%            1%             1%        1%        1%
Other                         2%               2%            1%             1%        1%        1%
Total                       100%             100%          100%           100%      100%      100%
   Data Source:     TJIS database & District Attorney BM 11 database

 Despite being approximately 10% of the total youth population (10-17 yrs.) in
  Multnomah County, African-Americans are over-represented in the juvenile
  justice system at 21% to 23% of the offender population.


                            Table 6: Gender of Juvenile Offenders
    GENDER                    1993              1994               1995      1996      1997    1998
Male                          68%               70%                69%       70%       71%     70%
Female                        32%               30%                31%       30%       29%     30%
   Data Source: TJIS database & District Attorney BM 11 database

 Approximately 7 of every 10 offenders in the juvenile justice system is male
  and this has remained fairly consistent over time.


                       Table 7: Age at Referral of Juvenile Offenders
   AGE AT REFERRAL                   1993           1994           1995      1996    1997     1998
11 or less                            5%             4%             4%        5%      4%       2%
12-14                                29%            31%            29%       26%     26%      27%
15-16                                39%            37%            38%       37%     38%      38%
17+                                  27%            28%            29%       32%     32%      33%
   Data Source: TJIS database & District Attorney BM 11 database

 The number of very young juveniles being referred to juvenile justice is not
  increasing. In fact, the trend over the past three years is a decrease in the
  number of juveniles who are less than 12 years of age entering the system.




   Juvenile Crime Trends Report, 3/20/2010             9
                                         Table 8: Prior Referrals
         CALENDAR YEAR                           1993    1994    1995    1996    1997    1998
 st
1 Time Offenders                                60.3%   61.1%   59.8%   59.2%   59.7%   57.3%
Offenders who had 1 prior referral              16.1%   14.9%   16.9%    16.4   15.8%   17.1%
Offenders who had 2-3 prior referrals           10.7%   11.8%   11.2%    11.8   11.8%   12.2%
Offenders who had 4 or more prior               12.9%   12.2%   12.0%   12.6%   12.7%   13.4%
referrals
      Data Source: TJIS database

       Well over half of the juveniles served by DCJ are first-time offenders.
        Chronic offenders (4 or more previous offenses) only comprise about 1 out
        of every 8 juveniles referred to DCJ.

      SUMMARY
      The trend over time has been for decreased numbers of juvenile criminal
      referrals to the Department of Community Justice. This has also been the case
      for the unduplicated number of youths being referred. As referrals and
      numbers of youth decreased, the rate of youth returning to the juvenile justice
      system has remained consistent. The combination of these two trends has
      resulted in fewer youth entering the system initially and fewer youth coming
      back into the system for repeated offenses.

      In Multnomah County, there has been a consistent increase in the number of
      10-17 year old youth since 1993 (1998 being the only year where this number
      decreased from the year before). Despite the increases for this age group over
      time, the proportion of this population who were referred to the juvenile justice
      system has consistently decreased. Further, the proportion of referred youth
      has decreased at a large enough rate each year to also result in a decrease in the
      actual number of juveniles referred to DCJ.

      With juvenile criminal referrals decreasing, the type of crime that dropped most
      dramatically over time was property crime. Person crime and weapons offenses
      also dropped, but at a much slower rate. Drug offenses were the only type of
      crime that increased and this increase may be due to increased law enforcement
      attention to this type offense in the past couple of years.

      In comparison to national juvenile crime trends, Multnomah County
      experienced some of the same changes (from 1996 to 1997) as the rest of the
      nation. Multnomah County witnessed a substantial decrease in homicide,


      Juvenile Crime Trends Report, 3/20/2010           10
robbery, and theft -- with Multnomah County’s number of homicides being less
than half of what it was the year before. There were also some differences in
crime trends between the county and the nation. Multnomah County’s rate of
change for burglary, fraud/forgery, and arson increased between the two years
while the national trend for these crimes was stable for burglary and arson and
decreased for fraud/forgery.

Finally, it is clear that the number of serious, violent and chronic juvenile
offenders was very small relative to the overall population of 10-17 year olds
in Multnomah County. Even when this group of juvenile offenders is
compared to the number of juvenile offenders, the proportion was still
relatively small. It is important to remember this when we hear of juvenile
crime that is reported by the media. The fact is that juvenile offenders have
been a very small proportion of all youth in Multnomah County – and the
number of violent juvenile offenders has been even smaller.




Juvenile Crime Trends Report, 3/20/2010   11

				
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