2009 Trendology: U.S. Securities Brokerages

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2009 Trendology: U.S. Securities Brokerages Powered By Docstoc
					U.S. Securities Brokerages Industry

         © 2009 Edition
                         U.S. Securities Brokerages Industry
                                      © 2009 Trendology Research



TABLE OF CONTENTS

                Economic Outlook Scenario Definitions
                Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Number of Establishments
                Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
                Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Number of Employees
                Industry Definition and Related Industries
                Related Industries
                U.S. Census Categories
                SWOT Analysis - Internal Industry Strengths
                SWOT Analysis - Internal Industry Weaknesses
                SWOT Analysis - External Industry Opportunities
                SWOT Analysis - External Industry Threats
                Written Analysis - Financial/Industry Statistics
                Written Analysis - Human Resources
                Written Analysis - Inputs/Suppliers
                Written Analysis - Consumers/Demand
                Written Analysis - Government Regulations
                Written Analysis - Technology
                Written Analysis - Environmental
                Written Analysis - Global Situation
                Written Analysis - Mergers & Acquisitions
                Written Analysis - Earnings & Profits
                Written Analysis - Executives News
                Written Analysis - Forecasts
                5-Year Trend - Estimated Number of Establishments
                5-Year Trend - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
                5-Year Trend - Estimated Number of Employees
                Major Industry Players
                2008 U.S. States - Estimated Number of Establishments
                2008 U.S. States - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
                2008 U.S. States - Estimated Number of Employees
                2008 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Number of Establishments
                2008 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
                2008 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Number of Employees
                Definitions and Terms




   © 2009 U.S. Securities Brokerages Industry - Trendology Research                   1
                             U.S. Securities Brokerages Industry
                                           © 2009 Trendology Research




Copyright © 2008 By Trendology Research
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     © 2009 U.S. Securities Brokerages Industry - Trendology Research                                           2
                            U.S. Securities Brokerages Industry
                                         © 2009 Trendology Research


Economic Outlook Scenarios
Economic Outlook Scenarios are a unique Trendology method of projecting future industry growth or
decline. Each year when the Trendology reports are published, there are many factors that will impact
an industry in the upcoming year. Many factors would have a positive impact (termed optimistic economic
outlook scenarios) and others would have a negative impact (termed optimistic economic outlook scenarios).

Trendology Research believes these scenarios provide a useful tool for our clients so that they can 1) see
the factors that will potentially impact their industry's economy and 2) choose within a range the growth or
decline in their industry based on these economic factors.

The projections are based on regression analysis of past historical industry trends. 2006 and 2007 figures are
fixed. The 2008-2010 figures are projections are impacted by the economic outlook scenarios. 2008 figures
are impacted because at the time of publication, final data for the last months of 2008 were not available.

• Optimistic Economic Outlook Scenarios
                  1) Tax cuts remain in place
                  2) Consumer confidence continues to decline leading to a recession
                  3) U.S. dollar grows in value against competitive countries
                  4) U.S. government's economic stimulus package is effective
                  5) Housing foreclosures are minimal - mortgage companies and U.S. government solve crisis
                  6) Interest rate cuts are effective in stimulating investment
                  7) U.S. government is effective at stopping possible terrorist attacks on U.S. homeland
                  8) Oil prices decrease (supply increases or demand decreases due to conservation)
                  9) Illegal immigration decreases
                  10) Changes to trade regulation increases U.S. exports and improve trade balance




• Pessimistic Economic Outlook Scenarios
                  1) Tax increases are instituted
                  2) Consumer confidence improves or remains constant to avoid a recession
                  3) U.S. dollar continues to decline in value or remains at current value
                  4) U.S. government's economic stimulus package is ineffective
                  5) Housing foreclosures are significant
                  6) Interest rates cuts are mishandled and are not effective in stimulating investment
                  7) Terrorist attack on U.S. homeland
                  8) Oil prices continue to increase or remain at current level
                  9) Illegal immigration continues
                  10) No changes to trade regulations




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                                                      U.S. Securities Brokerages Industry
                                                                     © 2009 Trendology Research


Number of Industry Establishments
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                          Year                              % Change from Year to Year
   Scenarios                        2006                      2007     2008       2009       2010   06-07    07-08     08-09      09-10
    Optimistic                     --                        --       28951      29231      29589   --       -1.6%      1.0%       1.2%
      Stable                      29960                     29432     28905      29201      29532   -1.8%    -1.8%      1.0%       1.1%
    Pessimistic                    --                        --       28859      29170      29475   --       -2.0%      1.1%       1.0%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                                      Industry Establishments (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                                    30200
                                                    30000
                         Number of Establishments




                                                    29800
                                                    29600
                                                    29400
                                                    29200
                                                                                                       Number of Establishments
                                                    29000
                                                    28800
                                                    28600
                                                    28400
                                                    28200
                                                              2006    2007    2008   2009   2010




      © 2009 U.S. Securities Brokerages Industry - Trendology Research                                                                    4
                                        U.S. Securities Brokerages Industry
                                                    © 2009 Trendology Research


Industry Sales
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                         Year
   Scenarios               2006              2007     2008        2009      2010   06-07   07-08     08-09   09-10
    Optimistic            --                --      115206      117563    120165   --       0.2%      2.0%    2.2%
      Stable            115745            114995    115204      117208    119487   -0.6%    0.2%      1.7%    1.9%
    Pessimistic           --                --      115202      116853    118810   --       0.2%      1.4%    1.7%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                               Industry Sales (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                      120000
                                      119000
                                      118000
                                      117000
                         Sales ($M)




                                      116000
                                                                                               Sales ($M)
                                      115000
                                      114000
                                      113000
                                      112000
                                                2006     2007      2008     2009   2010




      © 2009 U.S. Securities Brokerages Industry - Trendology Research                                               5
                                                 U.S. Securities Brokerages Industry
                                                             © 2009 Trendology Research


Number of Industry Employees
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                                    Year
   Scenarios               2006                       2007       2008     2009      2010      06-07       07-08       08-09   09-10
    Optimistic            --                         --        365921   369457    373977      --          -1.6%        1.0%    1.2%
      Stable            378669                     372002      365334   369071    373257      -1.8%       -1.8%        1.0%    1.1%
    Pessimistic           --                         --        364748   368685    372537      --          -2.0%        1.1%    1.0%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                                   Industry Employees (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                               380000
                         Number of Employees




                                               375000

                                               370000

                                                                                                      Number of Employees
                                               365000

                                               360000

                                               355000
                                                        2006    2007    2008    2009   2010




      © 2009 U.S. Securities Brokerages Industry - Trendology Research                                                                6
                          U.S. Securities Brokerages Industry
                                       © 2009 Trendology Research



Industry Definition and Related Industries
NAICS 52312: Securities Brokerage Industry. This industry comprises
establishments primarily engaged in the purchase, sale, and brokerage of
securities; and those, generally known as investment bankers, primarily
engaged in originating, underwriting, and distributing issues of securities.
Establishments primarily engaged in issuing shares of mutual and money
market funds, unit investment trusts, and face amount certificates are classified
in 6722 or 6726.




Related Industries
                 Financial Advisors
                 Investment Representatives
                 Banking Services
                 Life Insurance Carriers

U.S. Census Categories
NAICS 52312 – Securities Brokerage Industry is almost comparable to:
100% of SIC 6211 – Securities Brokers and Dealers




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                              U.S. Securities Brokerages Industry
                                           © 2009 Trendology Research



Internal Industry Strengths
• Based on buying and selling patterns, overall institutional investor's confidence increased in January, though it
remains slightly lower than normal.
• Investment Bank XL Capital Limited claims that adjustments to its portfolio and limiting exposure to volatile
markets will reduce its risk; confidence in the strategy led to better than expected earnings.
• As the economy worsened brokers increased their focus to helping clients navigate the tough economic times,
making it their top priority.
• SEI Investments non-profit business continues to expand woldwide. The asset management group added 33
new non-profit clients to its portfolio in the past 3 years.

Internal Industry Weaknesses
• The US Treasury disbursed an estimated $151 billion to 52 banks in 25 states, more than half the $250 billion
allocated to the recently created Capital Purchase Program, which was launched on Oct. 14 to try to stablize the
banking system by pumping capital into troubled banks and S&Ls, Interim Assistant Secretary for Financial Stability
Neel Kashkari reported Dec. 5 as part of a financial markets and TARP update.
• The Labor Dept. reported that 32,000 jobs were lost in the financial services sector in November, bringing the
total over the past year to 142,000ost jobs. Financial
				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: The 2009 Trendology report on the U.S. Securities Brokerages industry characterizes the industry in three descriptive methods: qualitative analysis, quantitative data and lists of major industry players. The written analysis includes financial issues, technology issues, human resources issues, supplier issues, consumer issues, government regulations, global factors, major industry news highlights, major earnings and profit reports, major mergers and acquisitions, and our exclusive industry SWOT analysis (industry internal strengths, internal weaknesses, external opportunities and external threats). Along with the trend analysis, quantitative data includes five-year trends (2006-2010) on number of establishments, industry and number of employees. This data is developed through Trendology's economic model using regression analysis based on historical industry trend data. Forecasts are available for 2010. Quantitative data for current year 2009 is provided for the U.S., 50 U.S. states, and 900 metro areas. The report also lists up to ten of the industry's major players, their current sales and stock symbol (for public companies). Color charts and graphs run throughout the report to highlight trends and are ready for presentations and displays. Links to Internet sources in the report are useful for additional research and data gathering.
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Trendology Research is a leading market research company that publishes hundreds of the largest U.S. industry reports annually. Our reports provide timely, accurate written analysis on industry trends and essential industry statistics. Featuring description color charts and graphs, our reports are ready-to-use for presentations and business plans. Trendology also publishes summary printed reports especially designed for researchers and libraries as one-stop reference sources for the largest U.S. industries.