2009 Trendology: U.S. Offices of Real Estate Appraisers

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2009 Trendology: U.S. Offices of Real Estate Appraisers Powered By Docstoc
					U.S. Offices of Real Estate Appraisers Industry

               © 2009 Edition
                  U.S. Offices of Real Estate Appraisers Industry
                                       © 2009 Trendology Research



TABLE OF CONTENTS

                Economic Outlook Scenario Definitions
                Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Number of Establishments
                Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
                Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Number of Employees
                Industry Definition and Related Industries
                Related Industries
                U.S. Census Categories
                SWOT Analysis - Internal Industry Strengths
                SWOT Analysis - Internal Industry Weaknesses
                SWOT Analysis - External Industry Opportunities
                SWOT Analysis - External Industry Threats
                Written Analysis - Financial/Industry Statistics
                Written Analysis - Human Resources
                Written Analysis - Inputs/Suppliers
                Written Analysis - Consumers/Demand
                Written Analysis - Government Regulations
                Written Analysis - Technology
                Written Analysis - Environmental
                Written Analysis - Global Situation
                Written Analysis - Mergers & Acquisitions
                Written Analysis - Earnings & Profits
                Written Analysis - Executives News
                Written Analysis - Forecasts
                5-Year Trend - Estimated Number of Establishments
                5-Year Trend - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
                5-Year Trend - Estimated Number of Employees
                Major Industry Players
                2008 U.S. States - Estimated Number of Establishments
                2008 U.S. States - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
                2008 U.S. States - Estimated Number of Employees
                2008 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Number of Establishments
                2008 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
                2008 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Number of Employees
                Definitions and Terms




   © 2009 U.S. Offices of Real Estate Appraisers Industry - Trendology Research       1
                     U.S. Offices of Real Estate Appraisers Industry
                                           © 2009 Trendology Research




Copyright © 2009 By Trendology Research
Printed in USA

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Note: Every effort has been made to verify and ensure the accuracy of the information within this
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     © 2009 U.S. Offices of Real Estate Appraisers Industry - Trendology Research                               2
                    U.S. Offices of Real Estate Appraisers Industry
                                         © 2009 Trendology Research


Economic Outlook Scenarios
Economic Outlook Scenarios are a unique Trendology method of projecting future industry growth or
decline. Each year when the Trendology reports are published, there are many factors that will impact
an industry in the upcoming year. Many factors would have a positive impact (termed optimistic economic
outlook scenarios) and others would have a negative impact (termed optimistic economic outlook scenarios).

Trendology Research believes these scenarios provide a useful tool for our clients so that they can 1) see
the factors that will potentially impact their industry's economy and 2) choose within a range the growth or
decline in their industry based on these economic factors.

The projections are based on regression analysis of past historical industry trends. 2006 and 2007 figures are
fixed. The 2008-2010 figures are projections are impacted by the economic outlook scenarios. 2008 figures
are impacted because at the time of publication, final data for the last months of 2008 were not available.

• Optimistic Economic Outlook Scenarios
                  1) Tax cuts remain in place
                  2) Consumer confidence continues to decline leading to a recession
                  3) U.S. dollar grows in value against competitive countries
                  4) U.S. government's economic stimulus package is effective
                  5) Housing foreclosures are minimal - mortgage companies and U.S. government solve crisis
                  6) Interest rate cuts are effective in stimulating investment
                  7) U.S. government is effective at stopping possible terrorist attacks on U.S. homeland
                  8) Oil prices decrease (supply increases or demand decreases due to conservation)
                  9) Illegal immigration decreases
                  10) Changes to trade regulation increases U.S. exports and improve trade balance




• Pessimistic Economic Outlook Scenarios
                  1) Tax increases are instituted
                  2) Consumer confidence improves or remains constant to avoid a recession
                  3) U.S. dollar continues to decline in value or remains at current value
                  4) U.S. government's economic stimulus package is ineffective
                  5) Housing foreclosures are significant
                  6) Interest rates cuts are mishandled and are not effective in stimulating investment
                  7) Terrorist attack on U.S. homeland
                  8) Oil prices continue to increase or remain at current level
                  9) Illegal immigration continues
                  10) No changes to trade regulations




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                        U.S. Offices of Real Estate Appraisers Industry
                                                                     © 2009 Trendology Research


Number of Industry Establishments
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                          Year                              % Change from Year to Year
   Scenarios                        2006                      2007     2008       2009       2010   06-07    07-08     08-09      09-10
    Optimistic                     --                        --       17025      17268      17540   --        1.0%      1.4%       1.6%
      Stable                      16697                     16857     17017      17238      17486    1.0%     0.9%      1.3%       1.4%
    Pessimistic                    --                        --       17009      17209      17432   --        0.9%      1.2%       1.3%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                                      Industry Establishments (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                                    17600
                         Number of Establishments




                                                    17400

                                                    17200

                                                    17000

                                                    16800                                              Number of Establishments

                                                    16600

                                                    16400

                                                    16200
                                                              2006    2007    2008   2009   2010




      © 2009 U.S. Offices of Real Estate Appraisers Industry - Trendology Research                                                        4
                        U.S. Offices of Real Estate Appraisers Industry
                                                     © 2009 Trendology Research


Industry Sales
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                       Year
   Scenarios                   2006           2007     2008     2009     2010     06-07   07-08     08-09   09-10
    Optimistic                --             --        5679     5975     6338     --       7.4%      5.2%    6.1%
      Stable                   5033           5285     5587     5848     6128      5.0%    5.7%      4.7%    4.8%
    Pessimistic               --             --        5496     5721     5917     --       4.0%      4.1%    3.4%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                              Industry Sales (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                      7000

                                      6000

                                      5000
                         Sales ($M)




                                      4000

                                      3000                                                    Sales ($M)

                                      2000

                                      1000

                                         0
                                              2006      2007    2008     2009     2010




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                        U.S. Offices of Real Estate Appraisers Industry
                                                                © 2009 Trendology Research


Number of Industry Employees
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                                     Year
   Scenarios                      2006                   2007     2008     2009         2010    06-07       07-08       08-09   09-10
    Optimistic                   --                     --       81015    82172        83469    --           1.0%        1.4%    1.6%
      Stable                    79456                  80217     80978    82033        83211     1.0%        0.9%        1.3%    1.4%
    Pessimistic                  --                     --       80942    81894        82954    --           0.9%        1.2%    1.3%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                                   Industry Employees (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                               84000

                                               83000
                         Number of Employees




                                               82000

                                               81000

                                               80000                                                    Number of Employees

                                               79000

                                               78000

                                               77000
                                                         2006    2007    2008    2009    2010




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                   U.S. Offices of Real Estate Appraisers Industry
                                        © 2009 Trendology Research



Industry Definition and Related Industries
NAICS 53132: Offices of Real Estate Appraisers. This industry comprises
establishments primarily engaged in estimating the fair market value
of real estate.




Related Industries
                 Real Estate Agents
                 Real Estate Property Managers
                 Housing Construction
                 Home Improvement Retail

U.S. Census Categories
NAICS 53132 – Offices of Real Estate Appraisers is 4% comparable to
SIC 6531 – Offices of Real Estate Appraisers




    © 2009 U.S. Offices of Real Estate Appraisers Industry - Trendology Research   7
                     U.S. Offices of Real Estate Appraisers Industry
                                          © 2009 Trendology Research



Internal Industry Strengths
• Due to the collapse of the subprime lending market, lenders will improve due dilligence, and hiring qualified
appraisers is part of proper underwriting and risk management practices.

• Real estate agents are now getting home appraised before putting them on the market. The market decline
has made using recent comparable home values critical because information that is more than three months old
may be outdated; lenders prefer comps sold within 30 days, although those figures are often nonexistent.
• Homeowners who are refinancing are being required to get more accurate appraisals using the most recent
sales data.

Internal Industry Weaknesses

• Fluctuations in the housing market is making valuation difficult. Lenders are scrutinizing even low appraisals. Prior
to the financial crisis, lenders often ran comparisons themselves, but now are sending appraisers out to check the
house and comparables. Some lenders are questioning as many as 10% of appraisals.
• The decline in the volume of homes sold is making it hard for appraisers to determine accurate values.

• The foreclosure crisis is making appraisals challenging. Foreclosed and short-sale homes create one price level,
a level that differs from a more traditional sale, creating potentially two price levels in one comparable area.

• Home builders and people selling their own homes may skew the value of a home by throwing extras, creative
financing, or concessions into the sale, forcing appraisers to do more research when determining comparables.
• The massive increase in foreclosures is a major factor that created the credit crisis that has required federal
bailout 
				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: The 2009 Trendology report on the U.S. Offices of Real Estate Appraisers industry characterizes the industry in three descriptive methods: qualitative analysis, quantitative data and lists of major industry players. The written analysis includes financial issues, technology issues, human resources issues, supplier issues, consumer issues, government regulations, global factors, major industry news highlights, major earnings and profit reports, major mergers and acquisitions, and our exclusive industry SWOT analysis (industry internal strengths, internal weaknesses, external opportunities and external threats). Along with the trend analysis, quantitative data includes five-year trends (2006-2010) on number of establishments, industry and number of employees. This data is developed through Trendology's economic model using regression analysis based on historical industry trend data. Forecasts are available for 2010. Quantitative data for current year 2009 is provided for the U.S., 50 U.S. states, and 900 metro areas. The report also lists up to ten of the industry's major players, their current sales and stock symbol (for public companies). Color charts and graphs run throughout the report to highlight trends and are ready for presentations and displays. Links to Internet sources in the report are useful for additional research and data gathering.
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Trendology Research is a leading market research company that publishes hundreds of the largest U.S. industry reports annually. Our reports provide timely, accurate written analysis on industry trends and essential industry statistics. Featuring description color charts and graphs, our reports are ready-to-use for presentations and business plans. Trendology also publishes summary printed reports especially designed for researchers and libraries as one-stop reference sources for the largest U.S. industries.