2009 Trendology: U.S. Advertising Agencies by TrendologyResearch

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									U.S. Advertising Agencies Industry

       © 2009 Edition
                          U.S. Advertising Agencies Industry
                                      © 2008 Trendology Research



TABLE OF CONTENTS

               Economic Outlook Scenario Definitions
               Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Number of Establishments
               Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Number of Employees
               Industry Definition and Related Industries
               Related Industries
               U.S. Census Categories
               SWOT Analysis - Internal Industry Strengths
               SWOT Analysis - Internal Industry Weaknesses
               SWOT Analysis - External Industry Opportunities
               SWOT Analysis - External Industry Threats
               Written Analysis - Financial/Industry Statistics
               Written Analysis - Human Resources
               Written Analysis - Inputs/Suppliers
               Written Analysis - Consumers/Demand
               Written Analysis - Government Regulations
               Written Analysis - Technology
               Written Analysis - Environmental
               Written Analysis - Global Situation
               Written Analysis - Mergers & Acquisitions
               Written Analysis - Earnings & Profits
               Written Analysis - Executives News
               Written Analysis - Forecasts
               5-Year Trend - Estimated Number of Establishments
               5-Year Trend - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               5-Year Trend - Estimated Number of Employees
               Major Industry Players
               2008 U.S. States - Estimated Number of Establishments
               2008 U.S. States - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               2008 U.S. States - Estimated Number of Employees
               2008 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Number of Establishments
               2008 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               2008 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Number of Employees
               Definitions and Terms




   © 2009 U.S. Advertising Agencies Industry - Trendology Research                   1
                              U.S. Advertising Agencies Industry
                                           © 2008 Trendology Research




Copyright © 2008 By Trendology Research
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     © 2009 U.S. Advertising Agencies Industry - Trendology Research                                            2
                             U.S. Advertising Agencies Industry
                                         © 2008 Trendology Research


Economic Outlook Scenarios
Economic Outlook Scenarios are a unique Trendology method of projecting future industry growth or
decline. Each year when the Trendology reports are published, there are many factors that will impact
an industry in the upcoming year. Many factors would have a positive impact (termed optimistic economic
outlook scenarios) and others would have a negative impact (termed optimistic economic outlook scenarios).

Trendology Research believes these scenarios provide a useful tool for our clients so that they can 1) see
the factors that will potentially impact their industry's economy and 2) choose within a range the growth or
decline in their industry based on these economic factors.

The projections are based on regression analysis of past historical industry trends. 2006 and 2007 figures are
fixed. The 2008-2010 figures are projections are impacted by the economic outlook scenarios. 2008 figures
are impacted because at the time of publication, final data for the last months of 2008 were not available.

• Optimistic Economic Outlook Scenarios
                  1) Tax cuts remain in place
                  2) Consumer confidence continues to decline leading to a recession
                  3) U.S. dollar grows in value against competitive countries
                  4) U.S. government's economic stimulus package is effective
                  5) Housing foreclosures are minimal - mortgage companies and U.S. government solve crisis
                  6) Interest rate cuts are effective in stimulating investment
                  7) U.S. government is effective at stopping possible terrorist attacks on U.S. homeland
                  8) Oil prices decrease (supply increases or demand decreases due to conservation)
                  9) Illegal immigration decreases
                  10) Changes to trade regulation increases U.S. exports and improve trade balance




• Pessimistic Economic Outlook Scenarios
                  1) Tax increases are instituted
                  2) Consumer confidence improves or remains constant to avoid a recession
                  3) U.S. dollar continues to decline in value or remains at current value
                  4) U.S. government's economic stimulus package is ineffective
                  5) Housing foreclosures are significant
                  6) Interest rates cuts are mishandled and are not effective in stimulating investment
                  7) Terrorist attack on U.S. homeland
                  8) Oil prices continue to increase or remain at current level
                  9) Illegal immigration continues
                  10) No changes to trade regulations




     © 2009 U.S. Advertising Agencies Industry - Trendology Research                                             3
                                                       U.S. Advertising Agencies Industry
                                                                     © 2008 Trendology Research


Number of Industry Establishments
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                          Year                              % Change from Year to Year
   Scenarios                        2006                      2007     2008       2009       2010   06-07    07-08     08-09      09-10
    Optimistic                     --                        --       14050      14053      14062   --        0.9%      0.0%       0.1%
      Stable                      13806                     13925     14045      14053      14061    0.9%     0.9%      0.1%       0.1%
    Pessimistic                    --                        --       14040      14053      14061   --        0.8%      0.1%       0.1%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                                      Industry Establishments (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                                    14100
                                                    14050
                         Number of Establishments




                                                    14000
                                                    13950
                                                    13900
                                                    13850                                              Number of Establishments
                                                    13800
                                                    13750
                                                    13700
                                                    13650
                                                              2006    2007    2008   2009   2010




      © 2009 U.S. Advertising Agencies Industry - Trendology Research                                                                     4
                                         U.S. Advertising Agencies Industry
                                                    © 2008 Trendology Research


Industry Sales
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                         Year
   Scenarios               2006              2007     2008        2009      2010   06-07   07-08     08-09   09-10
    Optimistic            --                --      144298      154292    166762   --      14.2%      6.9%    8.1%
      Stable            115656            126310    138188      147538    157024    9.2%    9.4%      6.8%    6.4%
    Pessimistic           --                --      132078      140783    147286   --       4.6%      6.6%    4.6%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                               Industry Sales (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                      180000
                                      160000
                                      140000
                                      120000
                         Sales ($M)




                                      100000
                                       80000                                                   Sales ($M)
                                       60000
                                       40000
                                       20000
                                          0
                                                2006     2007      2008     2009   2010




      © 2009 U.S. Advertising Agencies Industry - Trendology Research                                                5
                                                  U.S. Advertising Agencies Industry
                                                             © 2008 Trendology Research


Number of Industry Employees
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                                    Year
   Scenarios               2006                       2007       2008     2009      2010      06-07       07-08       08-09   09-10
    Optimistic            --                         --        192271   192311    192431      --           0.9%        0.0%    0.1%
      Stable            188934                     190567      192200   192310    192430       0.9%        0.9%        0.1%    0.1%
    Pessimistic           --                         --        192130   192309    192429      --           0.8%        0.1%    0.1%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                                   Industry Employees (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                               193000

                                               192000
                         Number of Employees




                                               191000

                                               190000
                                                                                                      Number of Employees
                                               189000

                                               188000

                                               187000
                                                        2006    2007    2008    2009   2010




      © 2009 U.S. Advertising Agencies Industry - Trendology Research                                                                 6
                           U.S. Advertising Agencies Industry
                                       © 2008 Trendology Research



Industry Definition and Related Industries
NAICS 54181: Advertising Agencies . This industry comprises
establishments primarily engaged in designing and implementing public
relations campaigns. These campaigns are designed to promote the
interests and image of their clients. Establishments providing lobbying,
political consulting, or public relations consulting are included in this industry.

Related Industries
                Direct Mail Printing
                Commercial Printing
                Public Relations Agencies
                Mailing Houses

U.S. Census Categories
NAICS 54182 – Advertising Agencies is 100% comparable to
SIC 7311 – Advertising Agencies




    © 2009 U.S. Advertising Agencies Industry - Trendology Research                   7
                             U.S. Advertising Agencies Industry
                                          © 2008 Trendology Research



Internal Industry Strengths
• Industry strength is evidenced by expanding advertising opportunities in creative ways that utilize strong
economic sectors, like new stadium ads that utilize team sponsorship in unexpected ways: dishwashers on display
in the halls at ballgames.

• Help wanted ads are moving online from hard copy newspapers; industry leaders stay ahead of the curve.
• The ad industry has always prided itself on being self regulating; self regul
								
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