2009 Trendology: U.S. Hotels & Motels

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2009 Trendology: U.S. Hotels & Motels
U.S. Hotels & Motels Industry



© 2009 Edition

U.S. Hotels & Motels Industry

© 2008 Trendology Research







TABLE OF CONTENTS



Economic Outlook Scenario Definitions

Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Number of Establishments

Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)

Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Number of Employees

Industry Definition and Related Industries

Related Industries

U.S. Census Categories

SWOT Analysis - Internal Industry Strengths

SWOT Analysis - Internal Industry Weaknesses

SWOT Analysis - External Industry Opportunities

SWOT Analysis - External Industry Threats

Written Analysis - Financial/Industry Statistics

Written Analysis - Human Resources

Written Analysis - Inputs/Suppliers

Written Analysis - Consumers/Demand

Written Analysis - Government Regulations

Written Analysis - Technology

Written Analysis - Environmental

Written Analysis - Global Situation

Written Analysis - Mergers & Acquisitions

Written Analysis - Earnings & Profits

Written Analysis - Executives News

Written Analysis - Forecasts

5-Year Trend - Estimated Number of Establishments

5-Year Trend - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)

5-Year Trend - Estimated Number of Employees

Major Industry Players

2008 U.S. States - Estimated Number of Establishments

2008 U.S. States - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)

2008 U.S. States - Estimated Number of Employees

2008 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Number of Establishments

2008 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)

2008 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Number of Employees

Definitions and Terms









© 2009 U.S. Hotels and Motels Industry - Trendology Research 1

U.S. Hotels & Motels Industry

© 2008 Trendology Research









Copyright © 2008 By Trendology Research

Printed in USA



All rights reserved. This publication may not be reproduced, stored in any information or retrieval system

or transmitted in whole or in part, in any form or by any means - electronic, mechanical, photocopying,

recording or otherwise - without the express written permission of Trendology Research.



Note: Every effort has been made to verify and ensure the accuracy of the information within this

publication. However, if any errors exist in this publication Trendology Research disclaims any liability for

any loss or damage to any party as a result of the information or errors in this publication.









© 2009 U.S. Hotels and Motels Industry - Trendology Research 2

U.S. Hotels & Motels Industry

© 2008 Trendology Research





Economic Outlook Scenarios

Economic Outlook Scenarios are a unique Trendology method of projecting future industry growth or

decline. Each year when the Trendology reports are published, there are many factors that will impact

an industry in the upcoming year. Many factors would have a positive impact (termed optimistic economic

outlook scenarios) and others would have a negative impact (termed optimistic economic outlook scenarios).



Trendology Research believes these scenarios provide a useful tool for our clients so that they can 1) see

the factors that will potentially impact their industry's economy and 2) choose within a range the growth or

decline in their industry based on these economic factors.



The projections are based on regression analysis of past historical industry trends. 2006 and 2007 figures are

fixed. The 2008-2010 figures are projections are impacted by the economic outlook scenarios. 2008 figures

are impacted because at the time of publication, final data for the last months of 2008 were not available.



• Optimistic Economic Outlook Scenarios

1) Tax cuts remain in place

2) Consumer confidence continues to decline leading to a recession

3) U.S. dollar grows in value against competitive countries

4) U.S. government's economic stimulus package is effective

5) Housing foreclosures are minimal - mortgage companies and U.S. government solve crisis

6) Interest rate cuts are effective in stimulating investment

7) U.S. government is effective at stopping possible terrorist attacks on U.S. homeland

8) Oil prices decrease (supply increases or demand decreases due to conservation)

9) Illegal immigration decreases

10) Changes to trade regulation increases U.S. exports and improve trade balance









• Pessimistic Economic Outlook Scenarios

1) Tax increases are instituted

2) Consumer confidence improves or remains constant to avoid a recession

3) U.S. dollar continues to decline in value or remains at current value

4) U.S. government's economic stimulus package is ineffective

5) Housing foreclosures are significant

6) Interest rates cuts are mishandled and are not effective in stimulating investment

7) Terrorist attack on U.S. homeland

8) Oil prices continue to increase or remain at current level

9) Illegal immigration continues

10) No changes to trade regulations









© 2009 U.S. Hotels and Motels Industry - Trendology Research 3

U.S. Hotels & Motels Industry

© 2008 Trendology Research





Number of Industry Establishments

• Economic Outlook Scenarios



Economic Year % Change from Year to Year

Scenarios 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10

Optimistic -- -- 50521 51056 51658 -- 1.1% 1.1% 1.2%

Stable 49468 49981 50495 51004 51565 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1%

Pessimistic -- -- 50468 50952 51471 -- 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%



*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.









Industry Establishments (Stable Economy Scenario)

52000

51500

Number of Establishments









51000

50500

50000

Number of Establishments

49500

49000

48500

48000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010









© 2009 U.S. Hotels and Motels Industry - Trendology Research 4

U.S. Hotels & Motels Industry

© 2008 Trendology Research





Industry Sales

• Economic Outlook Scenarios



Economic Year

Scenarios 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10

Optimistic -- -- 157102 163197 170979 -- 6.6% 3.9% 4.8%

Stable 141095 147355 155011 160886 167162 4.4% 5.2% 3.8% 3.9%

Pessimistic -- -- 152919 158575 163346 -- 3.8% 3.7% 3.0%



*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.









Industry Sales (Stable Economy Scenario)

170000

165000

160000

155000

Sales ($M)









150000

145000 Sales ($M)

140000

135000

130000

125000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010









© 2009 U.S. Hotels and Motels Industry - Trendology Research 5

U.S. Hotels & Motels Industry

© 2008 Trendology Research





Number of Industry Employees

• Economic Outlook Scenarios



Economic Year

Scenarios 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10

Optimistic -- -- 1456276 1471676 1489049 -- 1.1% 1.1% 1.2%

Stable 1425912 1440710 1455508 1470182 1486352 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1%

Pessimistic -- -- 1454741 1468687 1483655 -- 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%



*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.









Industry Employees (Stable Economy Scenario)

1500000

1490000

1480000

Number of Employees









1470000

1460000

1450000

1440000 Number of Employees

1430000

1420000

1410000

1400000

1390000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010









© 2009 U.S. Hotels and Motels Industry - Trendology Research 6

U.S. Hotels & Motels Industry

© 2008 Trendology Research







Industry Definition and Related Industries

NAICS 72111: Hotels (except Casino Hotels) and Motels. This industry

comprises establishments primarily engaged in providing short-term

lodging in facilities known as hotels, motor hotels, resort hotels, and

motels. The establishments in this industry may offer services, such as

food and beverage services, recreational services, conference rooms

and convention services, laundry services, parking, and other services.



Related Industries

Full-Service Restaurants

Drinking Places

Resorts and Casino

Fast-Food Restaurants



U.S. Census Categories

NAICS 72111 – Hotels & Motels is:

77% comparable to SIC 7011 – Hotels & Motels

22% comparable to SIC 7041 – Organization Hotels









© 2009 U.S. Hotels and Motels Industry - Trendology Research 7

U.S. Hotels & Motels Industry

© 2008 Trendology Research







Internal Industry Strengths

• According to Hotel Brokers International, US hotel investors see the next 12 months as an opportune time to

invest in conventional real estate.

• The US hotel/motel industry is preparing to accept International Financial Reporting Standards.

• H. Brandt Niehaus, president of Hotel Brokers International with over 30 offices in the US, says that financing for

hotels under $15 million is still available.



Internal Industry Weaknesses



• A 2008 industry expectation by Smith Travel Research calls for a 2.5 percent increase in supply industry-wide.

• Pessimism was strong at this summer’s NYU investment conference where industry speakers discussed recession

and economic concern.

• 2008-2010 projections for the U.S. Hotel industries by Smith Travel Research says to expect no new growth in

occupancy.



External Industry Opportunities

• Travelers are using the internet now more then ever to research budget travel

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