2010 Trendology: U.S. Electronic Shopping & Mail Order by TrendologyResearch

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									U.S. Electronic Shopping & Mail Order Houses Industry

                   © 2010 Edition
                 U.S. Electronic Shopping & Mail Order Industry
                                      © 2010 Trendology Research



TABLE OF CONTENTS

               Economic Outlook Scenario Definitions
               Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Number of Establishments
               Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Number of Employees
               Industry Definition and Related Industries
               Related Industries
               U.S. Census Categories
               SWOT Analysis - Internal Industry Strengths
               SWOT Analysis - Internal Industry Weaknesses
               SWOT Analysis - External Industry Opportunities
               SWOT Analysis - External Industry Threats
               Written Analysis - Financial/Industry Statistics
               Written Analysis - Human Resources
               Written Analysis - Inputs/Suppliers
               Written Analysis - Consumers/Demand
               Written Analysis - Government Regulations
               Written Analysis - Technology
               Written Analysis - Environmental
               Written Analysis - Global Situation
               Written Analysis - Mergers & Acquisitions
               Written Analysis - Earnings & Profits
               Written Analysis - Executives News
               Written Analysis - Forecasts
               5-Year Trend - Estimated Number of Establishments
               5-Year Trend - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               5-Year Trend - Estimated Number of Employees
               Major Industry Players
               2009 U.S. States - Estimated Number of Establishments
               2009 U.S. States - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               2009 U.S. States - Estimated Number of Employees
               2009 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Number of Establishments
               2009 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               2009 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Number of Employees
               Definitions and Terms




   © 2010 U.S. Electronic Shopping and Mail Order Industry - Trendology Research     1
                    U.S. Electronic Shopping & Mail Order Industry
                                           © 2010 Trendology Research




Copyright © 2010 By Trendology Research
Printed in USA

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Note: Every effort has been made to verify and ensure the accuracy of the information within this
publication. However, if any errors exist in this publication Trendology Research disclaims any liability for
any loss or damage to any party as a result of the information or errors in this publication.




     © 2010 U.S. Electronic Shopping and Mail Order Industry - Trendology Research                              2
                    U.S. Electronic Shopping & Mail Order Industry
                                          © 2010 Trendology Research


Economic Outlook Scenarios
Economic Outlook Scenarios are a unique Trendology method of projecting future industry growth or
decline. Each year when the Trendology reports are published, there are many factors that will impact
an industry in the upcoming year. Many factors would have a positive impact (termed optimistic economic
outlook scenarios) and others would have a negative impact (termed optimistic economic outlook scenarios).

Trendology Research believes these scenarios provide a useful tool for our clients so that they can 1) see
the factors that will potentially impact their industry's economy and 2) choose within a range the growth or
decline in their industry based on these economic factors.

The projections are based on regression analysis of past historical industry trends. 2007 and 2008 figures are
fixed. The 2009-2011 figures are projections are impacted by the economic outlook scenarios. 2009 figures
are impacted because at the time of publication, final data for the last months of 2009 were not available.

• Optimistic Economic Outlook Scenarios
                  1) Tax cuts remain in place
                  2) Consumer confidence improves
                  3) U.S. dollar grows in value against competitive countries
                  4) U.S. government's economic stimulus package is effective
                  5) Housing foreclosures decrease
                  6) Interest rate cuts are effective in stimulating investment
                  7) U.S. government is effective at stopping possible terrorist attacks on U.S. homeland
                  8) Oil prices decrease (supply increases or demand decreases due to conservation)
                  9) Illegal immigration decreases
                  10) Changes to trade regulation increases U.S. exports and improve trade balance
                  11) Federal health care bill does not become law



• Pessimistic Economic Outlook Scenarios
                  1) Tax increases are instituted
                  2) Consumer confidence continues to decline or remains constant
                  3) U.S. dollar continues to decline in value or remains at current value
                  4) U.S. government's economic stimulus package is ineffective
                  5) Housing foreclosures remain constant or increase
                  6) Interest rates cuts are mishandled and are not effective in stimulating investment
                  7) Terrorist attack on U.S. homeland
                  8) Oil prices continue to increase or remain at current level
                  9) Illegal immigration continues
                  10) No changes to trade regulations
                  11) Federal health care bill becomes law




     © 2010 U.S. Electronic Shopping and Mail Order Industry - Trendology Research                               3
                       U.S. Electronic Shopping & Mail Order Industry
                                                                    © 2010 Trendology Research


Number of Industry Establishments
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                         Year                              % Change from Year to Year
   Scenarios                         2007                    2008     2009       2010       2011   07-08    08-09     09-10      10-11
    Optimistic                      --                      --       18078      19338      20611   --        0.6%      7.0%       6.6%
      Stable                       16873                   17974     18075      18922      19868    6.5%     0.6%      4.7%       5.0%
    Pessimistic                     --                      --       18073      18507      19124   --        0.5%      2.4%       3.3%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                                     Industry Establishments (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                                   20500
                                                   20000
                        Number of Establishments




                                                   19500
                                                   19000
                                                   18500
                                                   18000
                                                   17500                                              Number of Establishments
                                                   17000
                                                   16500
                                                   16000
                                                   15500
                                                   15000
                                                            2007    2008     2009   2010   2011




      © 2010 U.S. Electronic Shopping and Mail Order Industry - Trendology Research                                                      4
                       U.S. Electronic Shopping & Mail Order Industry
                                                    © 2010 Trendology Research


Industry Sales
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                         Year
   Scenarios               2007              2008     2009        2010      2011   07-08   08-09     09-10   10-11
    Optimistic            --                --      161085      174566    187576   --      -2.4%      8.4%    7.5%
      Stable            150292            165108    160445      169350    178950    9.9%   -2.8%      5.5%    5.7%
    Pessimistic           --                --      159805      164133    170324   --      -3.2%      2.7%    3.8%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                               Industry Sales (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                      185000
                                      180000
                                      175000
                                      170000
                         Sales ($M)




                                      165000
                                      160000
                                                                                               Sales ($M)
                                      155000
                                      150000
                                      145000
                                      140000
                                      135000
                                                2007     2008      2009     2010   2011




      © 2010 U.S. Electronic Shopping and Mail Order Industry - Trendology Research                                  5
                       U.S. Electronic Shopping & Mail Order Industry
                                                              © 2010 Trendology Research


Number of Industry Employees
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                                   Year
   Scenarios               2007                      2008       2009     2010      2011      07-08       08-09      09-10   10-11
    Optimistic            --                        --        306699   341097    363398      --           3.7%      11.2%    6.5%
      Stable            270835                    295876      305188   325975    345264       9.2%        3.1%       6.8%    5.9%
    Pessimistic           --                        --        303677   310852    327130      --           2.6%       2.4%    5.2%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                                  Industry Employees (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                              400000
                                              350000
                        Number of Employees




                                              300000
                                              250000
                                              200000
                                                                                                     Number of Employees
                                              150000
                                              100000
                                              50000
                                                  0
                                                       2007     2008   2009    2010   2011




      © 2010 U.S. Electronic Shopping and Mail Order Industry - Trendology Research                                                 6
                  U.S. Electronic Shopping & Mail Order Industry
                                       © 2010 Trendology Research



Industry Definition and Related Industries
NAICS 45411: Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses This
industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing all
types of merchandise by means of mail or by electronic media, such
as interactive television or computer. Included in this industry are
establishments primarily engaged in retailing from catalogue showrooms
of mail-order houses.

Related Industries
              Department Stores
              Discount Stores
              Pharmacies
              Warehouse Clubs & Superstores

U.S. Census Categories
NAICS 45411: Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses is:
100% comparable to SIC 5961 – Electronic Shopping and
Mail-Order Houses




    © 2010 U.S. Electronic Shopping and Mail Order Industry - Trendology Research   7
                    U.S. Electronic Shopping & Mail Order Industry
                                           © 2010 Trendology Research




• Internal Industry Strengths
• Online shopping rose 2.6% in 4Q 2009 led by Amazon and Wal-Mart. This was the first quarterly improvement in
e-commerce since 3Q 2008. Overall online retail spending for 2009 totaled $129.8 billion, down slightly from
$130.1 billion in 2008.
• In the US, non-store retail sales are the sales that don't involve going to a bricks and mortar building; mail order,
Internet, door to door and phone sales like Home Shopping Network. This category has done better than
conventional retail in this recession and in the 2001 recession. In the current recession, non-store retail sales even
increased as a percentage of total sales.
• The US economy depends on retail for 75% of its revenue, so the good news is, retail is recovering. Holiday
inventories were much more controled and calculated than the previous year. The growth leader in retail at over
10% is electronic sale
								
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