2010 Trendology: U.S. Department Stores

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2010 Trendology: U.S. Department Stores Powered By Docstoc
					U.S. Department Stores Industry

      © 2010 Edition
                            U.S. Department Stores Industry
                                     © 2010 Trendology Research



TABLE OF CONTENTS

               Economic Outlook Scenario Definitions
               Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Number of Establishments
               Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Number of Employees
               Industry Definition and Related Industries
               Related Industries
               U.S. Census Categories
               SWOT Analysis - Internal Industry Strengths
               SWOT Analysis - Internal Industry Weaknesses
               SWOT Analysis - External Industry Opportunities
               SWOT Analysis - External Industry Threats
               Written Analysis - Financial/Industry Statistics
               Written Analysis - Human Resources
               Written Analysis - Inputs/Suppliers
               Written Analysis - Consumers/Demand
               Written Analysis - Government Regulations
               Written Analysis - Technology
               Written Analysis - Environmental
               Written Analysis - Global Situation
               Written Analysis - Mergers & Acquisitions
               Written Analysis - Earnings & Profits
               Written Analysis - Executives News
               Written Analysis - Forecasts
               5-Year Trend - Estimated Number of Establishments
               5-Year Trend - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               5-Year Trend - Estimated Number of Employees
               Major Industry Players
               2009 U.S. States - Estimated Number of Establishments
               2009 U.S. States - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               2009 U.S. States - Estimated Number of Employees
               2009 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Number of Establishments
               2009 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               2009 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Number of Employees
               Definitions and Terms




   © 2010 U.S. Department Stores Industry - Trendology Research                      1
                                U.S. Department Stores Industry
                                           © 2010 Trendology Research




Copyright © 2010 By Trendology Research
Printed in USA

All rights reserved. This publication may not be reproduced, stored in any information or retrieval system
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Note: Every effort has been made to verify and ensure the accuracy of the information within this
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     © 2010 U.S. Department Stores Industry - Trendology Research                                               2
                               U.S. Department Stores Industry
                                          © 2010 Trendology Research


Economic Outlook Scenarios
Economic Outlook Scenarios are a unique Trendology method of projecting future industry growth or
decline. Each year when the Trendology reports are published, there are many factors that will impact
an industry in the upcoming year. Many factors would have a positive impact (termed optimistic economic
outlook scenarios) and others would have a negative impact (termed optimistic economic outlook scenarios).

Trendology Research believes these scenarios provide a useful tool for our clients so that they can 1) see
the factors that will potentially impact their industry's economy and 2) choose within a range the growth or
decline in their industry based on these economic factors.

The projections are based on regression analysis of past historical industry trends. 2007 and 2008 figures are
fixed. The 2009-2011 figures are projections are impacted by the economic outlook scenarios. 2009 figures
are impacted because at the time of publication, final data for the last months of 2009 were not available.

• Optimistic Economic Outlook Scenarios
                  1) Tax cuts remain in place
                  2) Consumer confidence improves
                  3) U.S. dollar grows in value against competitive countries
                  4) U.S. government's economic stimulus package is effective
                  5) Housing foreclosures decrease
                  6) Interest rate cuts are effective in stimulating investment
                  7) U.S. government is effective at stopping possible terrorist attacks on U.S. homeland
                  8) Oil prices decrease (supply increases or demand decreases due to conservation)
                  9) Illegal immigration decreases
                  10) Changes to trade regulation increases U.S. exports and improve trade balance
                  11) Federal health care bill does not become law



• Pessimistic Economic Outlook Scenarios
                  1) Tax increases are instituted
                  2) Consumer confidence continues to decline or remains constant
                  3) U.S. dollar continues to decline in value or remains at current value
                  4) U.S. government's economic stimulus package is ineffective
                  5) Housing foreclosures remain constant or increase
                  6) Interest rates cuts are mishandled and are not effective in stimulating investment
                  7) Terrorist attack on U.S. homeland
                  8) Oil prices continue to increase or remain at current level
                  9) Illegal immigration continues
                  10) No changes to trade regulations
                  11) Federal health care bill becomes law




     © 2010 U.S. Department Stores Industry - Trendology Research                                                3
                                                       U.S. Department Stores Industry
                                                                    © 2010 Trendology Research


Number of Industry Establishments
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                         Year                              % Change from Year to Year
   Scenarios                         2007                    2008     2009       2010       2011   07-08    08-09     09-10      10-11
    Optimistic                      --                      --       10702      10902      11013   --       -2.8%      1.9%       1.0%
      Stable                       10777                   11010     10642      10857      10989    2.2%    -3.3%      2.0%       1.2%
    Pessimistic                     --                      --       10583      10813      10965   --       -3.9%      2.2%       1.4%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                                     Industry Establishments (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                                   11100
                        Number of Establishments




                                                   11000

                                                   10900

                                                   10800

                                                   10700                                              Number of Establishments

                                                   10600

                                                   10500

                                                   10400
                                                            2007    2008     2009   2010   2011




      © 2010 U.S. Department Stores Industry - Trendology Research                                                                       4
                                          U.S. Department Stores Industry
                                                    © 2010 Trendology Research


Industry Sales
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                         Year
   Scenarios               2007              2008     2009        2010      2011   07-08   08-09     09-10   10-11
    Optimistic            --                --      444442      464915    487194   --      -4.1%      4.6%    4.8%
      Stable            436070            463400    437721      456507    475218    6.3%   -5.5%      4.3%    4.1%
    Pessimistic           --                --      431001      448099    463242   --      -7.0%      4.0%    3.4%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                               Industry Sales (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                      480000

                                      470000

                                      460000
                         Sales ($M)




                                      450000

                                      440000                                                   Sales ($M)

                                      430000

                                      420000

                                      410000
                                                2007     2008      2009     2010   2011




      © 2010 U.S. Department Stores Industry - Trendology Research                                                   5
                                                  U.S. Department Stores Industry
                                                           © 2010 Trendology Research


Number of Industry Employees
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                                  Year
   Scenarios               2007    2008    2009    2010    2011                             07-08       08-09       09-10   10-11
    Optimistic            --      --    1531223 1579929 1600993                             --          -2.1%        3.2%    1.3%
      Stable           1518280 1564681 1526733 1568302 1594380                               3.1%       -2.4%        2.7%    1.7%
    Pessimistic           --      --    1522243 1556676 1587768                             --          -2.7%        2.3%    2.0%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                                  Industry Employees (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                              1620000

                                              1600000
                        Number of Employees




                                              1580000

                                              1560000

                                              1540000                                               Number of Employees

                                              1520000

                                              1500000

                                              1480000
                                                        2007   2008   2009    2010   2011




      © 2010 U.S. Department Stores Industry - Trendology Research                                                                  6
                             U.S. Department Stores Industry
                                      © 2010 Trendology Research



Industry Definition and Related Industries
NAICS 45211: Department Stores Industry . This industry comprises
establishments known as department stores primarily engaged in retailing
a wide range of the following new products with no one merchandise line
predominating: apparel, furniture, appliances and home furnishings; and
selected additional items, such as paint, hardware, toiletries, cosmetics,
photographic equipment, jewelry, toys, and sporting goods. Merchandise lines
are normally arranged in separate departments.

Related Industries
              Apparel/Accessories
              Footwear
              Retail (Apparel)
              Retail (Catalog & Mail Order)

U.S. Census Categories
NAICS 45211 – Department Stores Industry is 85% comparable to
SIC 5311 – Department Stores




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                                U.S. Department Stores Industry
                                           © 2010 Trendology Research




• Internal Industry Strengths
• Macy's is adding new exclusive lines to its merchandise - Ellen Tracy - women's sportswear, Threads & Heirs -
men's casualwear, Kouture by Kimora - teen wear, mystylelab - accessories, Vida for Espana - dinnerware and
Martha Stewart - mattresses.
• Macy's is also adding Kenneth Cole menswear.
• Dillard's 4Q profitability raised hopes that regional department stores could still thrive in the U.S. after similar
chains went under - Gottschalks and Mervyns. Regionals, smaller than nationals like Macy's and J.C. Penney, are
more flex
				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: The 2010 Trendology report on the U.S. Department Stores industry characterizes the industry in three descriptive methods: qualitative analysis, quantitative data and lists of major industry players. The written analysis includes financial issues, technology issues, human resources issues, supplier issues, consumer issues, government regulations, global factors, major industry news highlights, major earnings and profit reports, major mergers and acquisitions, and our exclusive industry SWOT analysis (industry internal strengths, internal weaknesses, external opportunities and external threats). Along with the trend analysis, quantitative data includes five-year trends (2007-2011) on number of establishments, industry and number of employees. This data is developed through Trendology's economic model using regression analysis based on historical industry trend data. Forecasts are available for 2011. Quantitative data for current year 2010 is provided for the U.S., 50 U.S. states, and 900 metro areas. The report also lists up to ten of the industry's major players, their current sales and stock symbol (for public companies). Color charts and graphs run throughout the report to highlight trends and are ready for presentations and displays. Links to Internet sources in the report are useful for additional research and data gathering.
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Trendology Research is a leading market research company that publishes hundreds of the largest U.S. industry reports annually. Our reports provide timely, accurate written analysis on industry trends and essential industry statistics. Featuring description color charts and graphs, our reports are ready-to-use for presentations and business plans. Trendology also publishes summary printed reports especially designed for researchers and libraries as one-stop reference sources for the largest U.S. industries.