2010 Trendology: U.S. Computer & Software Stores by TrendologyResearch

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									U.S. Computer & Software Stores Industry

            © 2010 Edition
                    U.S. Computer & Software Stores Industry
                                     © 2010 Trendology Research



TABLE OF CONTENTS

               Economic Outlook Scenario Definitions
               Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Number of Establishments
               Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Number of Employees
               Industry Definition and Related Industries
               Related Industries
               U.S. Census Categories
               SWOT Analysis - Internal Industry Strengths
               SWOT Analysis - Internal Industry Weaknesses
               SWOT Analysis - External Industry Opportunities
               SWOT Analysis - External Industry Threats
               Written Analysis - Financial/Industry Statistics
               Written Analysis - Human Resources
               Written Analysis - Inputs/Suppliers
               Written Analysis - Consumers/Demand
               Written Analysis - Government Regulations
               Written Analysis - Technology
               Written Analysis - Environmental
               Written Analysis - Global Situation
               Written Analysis - Mergers & Acquisitions
               Written Analysis - Earnings & Profits
               Written Analysis - Executives News
               Written Analysis - Forecasts
               5-Year Trend - Estimated Number of Establishments
               5-Year Trend - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               5-Year Trend - Estimated Number of Employees
               Major Industry Players
               2009 U.S. States - Estimated Number of Establishments
               2009 U.S. States - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               2009 U.S. States - Estimated Number of Employees
               2009 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Number of Establishments
               2009 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               2009 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Number of Employees
               Definitions and Terms




   © 2010 U.S. Computer and Software Stores Industry - Trendology Research           1
                        U.S. Computer & Software Stores Industry
                                           © 2010 Trendology Research




Copyright © 2010 By Trendology Research
Printed in USA

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Note: Every effort has been made to verify and ensure the accuracy of the information within this
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any loss or damage to any party as a result of the information or errors in this publication.




     © 2010 U.S. Computer and Software Stores Industry - Trendology Research                                    2
                       U.S. Computer & Software Stores Industry
                                          © 2010 Trendology Research


Economic Outlook Scenarios
Economic Outlook Scenarios are a unique Trendology method of projecting future industry growth or
decline. Each year when the Trendology reports are published, there are many factors that will impact
an industry in the upcoming year. Many factors would have a positive impact (termed optimistic economic
outlook scenarios) and others would have a negative impact (termed optimistic economic outlook scenarios).

Trendology Research believes these scenarios provide a useful tool for our clients so that they can 1) see
the factors that will potentially impact their industry's economy and 2) choose within a range the growth or
decline in their industry based on these economic factors.

The projections are based on regression analysis of past historical industry trends. 2007 and 2008 figures are
fixed. The 2009-2011 figures are projections are impacted by the economic outlook scenarios. 2009 figures
are impacted because at the time of publication, final data for the last months of 2009 were not available.

• Optimistic Economic Outlook Scenarios
                  1) Tax cuts remain in place
                  2) Consumer confidence improves
                  3) U.S. dollar grows in value against competitive countries
                  4) U.S. government's economic stimulus package is effective
                  5) Housing foreclosures decrease
                  6) Interest rate cuts are effective in stimulating investment
                  7) U.S. government is effective at stopping possible terrorist attacks on U.S. homeland
                  8) Oil prices decrease (supply increases or demand decreases due to conservation)
                  9) Illegal immigration decreases
                  10) Changes to trade regulation increases U.S. exports and improve trade balance
                  11) Federal health care bill does not become law



• Pessimistic Economic Outlook Scenarios
                  1) Tax increases are instituted
                  2) Consumer confidence continues to decline or remains constant
                  3) U.S. dollar continues to decline in value or remains at current value
                  4) U.S. government's economic stimulus package is ineffective
                  5) Housing foreclosures remain constant or increase
                  6) Interest rates cuts are mishandled and are not effective in stimulating investment
                  7) Terrorist attack on U.S. homeland
                  8) Oil prices continue to increase or remain at current level
                  9) Illegal immigration continues
                  10) No changes to trade regulations
                  11) Federal health care bill becomes law




     © 2010 U.S. Computer and Software Stores Industry - Trendology Research                                     3
                                                   U.S. Computer & Software Stores Industry
                                                                    © 2010 Trendology Research


Number of Industry Establishments
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                         Year                              % Change from Year to Year
   Scenarios                         2007                    2008     2009      2010        2011   07-08    08-09     09-10      10-11
    Optimistic                      --                      --       12655     12289       12084   --       -4.3%     -2.9%      -1.7%
      Stable                       13023                   13226     12430     12269       11993    1.6%    -6.0%     -1.3%      -2.2%
    Pessimistic                     --                      --       12204     12248       11902   --       -7.7%      0.4%      -2.8%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                                     Industry Establishments (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                                   13400
                                                   13200
                        Number of Establishments




                                                   13000
                                                   12800
                                                   12600
                                                   12400
                                                   12200                                                Number of Establishments
                                                   12000
                                                   11800
                                                   11600
                                                   11400
                                                   11200
                                                             2007    2008    2009   2010    2011




      © 2010 U.S. Computer and Software Stores Industry - Trendology Research                                                            4
                                      U.S. Computer & Software Stores Industry
                                                        © 2010 Trendology Research


Industry Sales
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                           Year
   Scenarios                  2007              2008      2009      2010      2011   07-08    08-09        09-10   10-11
    Optimistic               --                --        26480     23462     22522   --       -5.6%       -11.4%   -4.0%
      Stable                28217             28041      24099     22815     21593   -0.6%   -14.1%        -5.3%   -5.4%
    Pessimistic              --                --        21717     22167     20665   --      -22.6%         2.1%   -6.8%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                                Industry Sales (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                      30000

                                      25000

                                      20000
                         Sales ($M)




                                      15000
                                                                                                      Sales ($M)

                                      10000

                                       5000

                                         0
                                                 2007       2008    2009      2010   2011




      © 2010 U.S. Computer and Software Stores Industry - Trendology Research                                              5
                                              U.S. Computer & Software Stores Industry
                                                              © 2010 Trendology Research


Number of Industry Employees
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                                   Year
   Scenarios               2007                      2008       2009     2010      2011       07-08      08-09       09-10   10-11
    Optimistic            --                        --        151940   147740    145476       --         -4.3%       -2.8%   -1.5%
      Stable            155942                    158784      149249   147548    144623        1.8%      -6.0%       -1.1%   -2.0%
    Pessimistic           --                        --        146559   147357    143771       --         -7.7%        0.5%   -2.4%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                                  Industry Employees (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                              160000
                        Number of Employees




                                              155000

                                              150000

                                                                                                      Number of Employees
                                              145000

                                              140000

                                              135000
                                                       2007     2008   2009     2010   2011




      © 2010 U.S. Computer and Software Stores Industry - Trendology Research                                                        6
                     U.S. Computer & Software Stores Industry
                                      © 2010 Trendology Research



Industry Definition and Related Industries
NAICS 44312: Computer & Software Stores. Establishments primarily
engaged in the retail sale of computers, computer peripheral equipment,
and software. Establishments primarily engaged in the sale of computers,
computer peripheral equipment and software for business or professional
use are classified in SIC 5045.

Related Industries
              Computer Manufacturing
              Software Publishers
              Computer Systems Design Firms
              Discount Stores

U.S. Census Categories
NAICS 44312 – Computer & Software Stores is almost comparable to:
2% of SIC 5045 – Computer Equipment Merchants and
100% of SIC 5734 Computer Software Stores




    © 2010 U.S. Computer and Software Stores Industry - Trendology Research   7
                       U.S. Computer & Software Stores Industry
                                         © 2010 Trendology Research



• Internal Industry Strengths
• Sony is still a formidable company realizing a 23% increase in 2009 shares and 2008's 60% drop. Sony's focus in
2010 includes new software, an e-reader and 3D TV.
• Panasonic expects to sell a millio 3D TVs in 2010 with the US its largest market. Panasonic is the largest
manufacturer of plasma TVs in the world and says it expects 3D to gain faster acceptance. Sony and Samsung
are also making 3D sets.
• Apple won three Gold IDEA design awards in 2009, two for different versions of its MacBook computer.
• Consumers are still willing to spend money on items that aren't necessities. Nintendo and Apple are thriving by
selling products consumers consider life-enhancing.
• The top gifts for holiday season 2009 were eletronic equipment whether cell phones, laptops or numerous other
gadgets even as these same devices are causing accidents as a growing number 
								
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