2010 Trendology: U.S. Colleges & Universities by TrendologyResearch

VIEWS: 203 PAGES: 88

The 2010 Trendology report on the U.S. Colleges & Universities industry characterizes the industry in three descriptive methods: qualitative analysis, quantitative data and lists of major industry players. The written analysis includes financial issues, technology issues, human resources issues, supplier issues, consumer issues, government regulations, global factors, major industry news highlights, major earnings and profit reports, major mergers and acquisitions, and our exclusive industry SWOT analysis (industry internal strengths, internal weaknesses, external opportunities and external threats). Along with the trend analysis, quantitative data includes five-year trends (2007-2011) on number of establishments, industry and number of employees. This data is developed through Trendology's economic model using regression analysis based on historical industry trend data. Forecasts are available for 2011. Quantitative data for current year 2010 is provided for the U.S., 50 U.S. states, and 900 metro areas. The report also lists up to ten of the industry's major players, their current sales and stock symbol (for public companies). Color charts and graphs run throughout the report to highlight trends and are ready for presentations and displays. Links to Internet sources in the report are useful for additional research and data gathering.

More Info
									U.S. Colleges & Universities Industry

         © 2010 Edition
                         U.S. Colleges & Universities Industry
                                       © 2010 Trendology Research



TABLE OF CONTENTS

                Economic Outlook Scenario Definitions
                Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Number of Establishments
                Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
                Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Number of Employees
                Industry Definition and Related Industries
                Related Industries
                U.S. Census Categories
                SWOT Analysis - Internal Industry Strengths
                SWOT Analysis - Internal Industry Weaknesses
                SWOT Analysis - External Industry Opportunities
                SWOT Analysis - External Industry Threats
                Written Analysis - Financial/Industry Statistics
                Written Analysis - Human Resources
                Written Analysis - Inputs/Suppliers
                Written Analysis - Consumers/Demand
                Written Analysis - Government Regulations
                Written Analysis - Technology
                Written Analysis - Environmental
                Written Analysis - Global Situation
                Written Analysis - Mergers & Acquisitions
                Written Analysis - Earnings & Profits
                Written Analysis - Executives News
                Written Analysis - Forecasts
                5-Year Trend - Estimated Number of Establishments
                5-Year Trend - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
                5-Year Trend - Estimated Number of Employees
                Major Industry Players
                2009 U.S. States - Estimated Number of Establishments
                2009 U.S. States - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
                2009 U.S. States - Estimated Number of Employees
                2009 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Number of Establishments
                2009 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
                2009 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Number of Employees
                Definitions and Terms




   © 2010 U.S. Colleges and Universities Industry - Trendology Research               1
                             U.S. Colleges & Universities Industry
                                           © 2010 Trendology Research




Copyright © 2010 By Trendology Research
Printed in USA

All rights reserved. This publication may not be reproduced, stored in any information or retrieval system
or transmitted in whole or in part, in any form or by any means - electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording or otherwise - without the express written permission of Trendology Research.

Note: Every effort has been made to verify and ensure the accuracy of the information within this
publication. However, if any errors exist in this publication Trendology Research disclaims any liability for
any loss or damage to any party as a result of the information or errors in this publication.




     © 2010 U.S. Colleges and Universities Industry - Trendology Research                                       2
                            U.S. Colleges & Universities Industry
                                          © 2010 Trendology Research


Economic Outlook Scenarios
Economic Outlook Scenarios are a unique Trendology method of projecting future industry growth or
decline. Each year when the Trendology reports are published, there are many factors that will impact
an industry in the upcoming year. Many factors would have a positive impact (termed optimistic economic
outlook scenarios) and others would have a negative impact (termed optimistic economic outlook scenarios).

Trendology Research believes these scenarios provide a useful tool for our clients so that they can 1) see
the factors that will potentially impact their industry's economy and 2) choose within a range the growth or
decline in their industry based on these economic factors.

The projections are based on regression analysis of past historical industry trends. 2007 and 2008 figures are
fixed. The 2009-2011 figures are projections are impacted by the economic outlook scenarios. 2009 figures
are impacted because at the time of publication, final data for the last months of 2009 were not available.

• Optimistic Economic Outlook Scenarios
                  1) Tax cuts remain in place
                  2) Consumer confidence improves
                  3) U.S. dollar grows in value against competitive countries
                  4) U.S. government's economic stimulus package is effective
                  5) Housing foreclosures decrease
                  6) Interest rate cuts are effective in stimulating investment
                  7) U.S. government is effective at stopping possible terrorist attacks on U.S. homeland
                  8) Oil prices decrease (supply increases or demand decreases due to conservation)
                  9) Illegal immigration decreases
                  10) Changes to trade regulation increases U.S. exports and improve trade balance
                  11) Federal health care bill does not become law



• Pessimistic Economic Outlook Scenarios
                  1) Tax increases are instituted
                  2) Consumer confidence continues to decline or remains constant
                  3) U.S. dollar continues to decline in value or remains at current value
                  4) U.S. government's economic stimulus package is ineffective
                  5) Housing foreclosures remain constant or increase
                  6) Interest rates cuts are mishandled and are not effective in stimulating investment
                  7) Terrorist attack on U.S. homeland
                  8) Oil prices continue to increase or remain at current level
                  9) Illegal immigration continues
                  10) No changes to trade regulations
                  11) Federal health care bill becomes law




     © 2010 U.S. Colleges and Universities Industry - Trendology Research                                        3
                                                     U.S. Colleges & Universities Industry
                                                                  © 2010 Trendology Research


Number of Industry Establishments
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                       Year                             % Change from Year to Year
   Scenarios                              2007             2008     2009      2010       2011   07-08    08-09     09-10      10-11
    Optimistic                           --               --        4974      5128       5289   --        0.0%      3.1%       3.1%
      Stable                              4825             4975     4974      5097       5233    3.1%     0.0%      2.5%       2.7%
    Pessimistic                          --               --        4974      5066       5177   --        0.0%      1.8%       2.2%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                                     Industry Establishments (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                                   5300
                        Number of Establishments




                                                   5200

                                                   5100

                                                   5000

                                                   4900                                              Number of Establishments


                                                   4800

                                                   4700

                                                   4600
                                                          2007    2008     2009   2010   2011




      © 2010 U.S. Colleges and Universities Industry - Trendology Research                                                            4
                                        U.S. Colleges & Universities Industry
                                                    © 2010 Trendology Research


Industry Sales
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                         Year
   Scenarios               2007              2008     2009        2010      2011   07-08   08-09        09-10   10-11
    Optimistic            --                --      198899      222003    249094   --      -0.2%        11.6%   12.2%
      Stable            182080            199232    198896      212324    228697    9.4%   -0.2%         6.8%    7.7%
    Pessimistic           --                --      198893      202646    208299   --      -0.2%         1.9%    2.8%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                               Industry Sales (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                      250000

                                      200000
                         Sales ($M)




                                      150000

                                                                                                   Sales ($M)
                                      100000

                                      50000

                                          0
                                                2007     2008      2009     2010   2011




      © 2010 U.S. Colleges and Universities Industry - Trendology Research                                              5
                                                U.S. Colleges & Universities Industry
                                                            © 2010 Trendology Research


Number of Industry Employees
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                               Year
   Scenarios               2007                      2008     2009      2010    2011       07-08      08-09        09-10   10-11
    Optimistic            --                        --      959815    989522 1020461       --          0.0%         3.1%    3.1%
      Stable            930984                    959871    959815    983522 1009717        3.1%       0.0%         2.5%    2.7%
    Pessimistic           --                        --      959815    977522 998973        --          0.0%         1.8%    2.2%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                                  Industry Employees (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                              1020000

                                              1000000
                        Number of Employees




                                               980000

                                               960000

                                               940000                                              Number of Employees


                                               920000

                                               900000

                                               880000
                                                        2007   2008   2009   2010   2011




      © 2010 U.S. Colleges and Universities Industry - Trendology Research                                                         6
                          U.S. Colleges & Universities Industry
                                        © 2010 Trendology Research



Industry Definition and Related Industries
NAICS 61131: Colleges & Universities. This industry comprises
establishments primarily furnishing academic courses and granting
academic degrees. The requirement for admission is at least a high
school diploma or equivalent general academic training.

Related Industries
              Educational Support Services
              Book Publishing
              Office Supply Retailers
              Teachers and Instructors

U.S. Census Categories
NAICS 61131 – Colleges & Universities is almost comparable to:
100% of SIC 8221 – Colleges & Universities




    © 2010 U.S. Colleges and Universities Industry - Trendology Research   7
                            U.S. Colleges & Universities Industry
                                           © 2010 Trendology Research



• Internal Industry Strengths

• The for-profit educational niche has high average growth. It's dependent on the government, but if that doesn't
worry you, it's a good sector. Apollo is a standout because it trades at a relative discount to its peers.
• For profit education is losing its stigma. University of Phoenix, owned by Apollo Group, is largest private university
in North America and will benefit from boom in enrollment.
• While others in the for-profit education industry have had problems with government re
								
To top