2010 Trendology: U.S. Hotels & Motels by TrendologyResearch

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The 2010 Trendology report on the U.S. Hotels & Motels industry characterizes the industry in three descriptive methods: qualitative analysis, quantitative data and lists of major industry players. The written analysis includes financial issues, technology issues, human resources issues, supplier issues, consumer issues, government regulations, global factors, major industry news highlights, major earnings and profit reports, major mergers and acquisitions, and our exclusive industry SWOT analysis (industry internal strengths, internal weaknesses, external opportunities and external threats). Along with the trend analysis, quantitative data includes five-year trends (2007-2011) on number of establishments, industry and number of employees. This data is developed through Trendology's economic model using regression analysis based on historical industry trend data. Forecasts are available for 2011. Quantitative data for current year 2010 is provided for the U.S., 50 U.S. states, and 900 metro areas. The report also lists up to ten of the industry's major players, their current sales and stock symbol (for public companies). Color charts and graphs run throughout the report to highlight trends and are ready for presentations and displays. Links to Internet sources in the report are useful for additional research and data gathering.

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									U.S. Hotels & Motels Industry

      © 2010 Edition
                               U.S. Hotels & Motels Industry
                                      © 2010 Trendology Research



TABLE OF CONTENTS

               Economic Outlook Scenario Definitions
               Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Number of Establishments
               Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               Economic Outlook Scenario - Estimated Number of Employees
               Industry Definition and Related Industries
               Related Industries
               U.S. Census Categories
               SWOT Analysis - Internal Industry Strengths
               SWOT Analysis - Internal Industry Weaknesses
               SWOT Analysis - External Industry Opportunities
               SWOT Analysis - External Industry Threats
               Written Analysis - Financial/Industry Statistics
               Written Analysis - Human Resources
               Written Analysis - Inputs/Suppliers
               Written Analysis - Consumers/Demand
               Written Analysis - Government Regulations
               Written Analysis - Technology
               Written Analysis - Environmental
               Written Analysis - Global Situation
               Written Analysis - Mergers & Acquisitions
               Written Analysis - Earnings & Profits
               Written Analysis - Executives News
               Written Analysis - Forecasts
               5-Year Trend - Estimated Number of Establishments
               5-Year Trend - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               5-Year Trend - Estimated Number of Employees
               Major Industry Players
               2009 U.S. States - Estimated Number of Establishments
               2009 U.S. States - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               2009 U.S. States - Estimated Number of Employees
               2009 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Number of Establishments
               2009 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Industry Sales ($Millions)
               2009 U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Estimated Number of Employees
               Definitions and Terms




   © 2010 U.S. Hotels and Motels Industry - Trendology Research                      1
                                   U.S. Hotels & Motels Industry
                                           © 2010 Trendology Research




Copyright © 2010 By Trendology Research
Printed in USA

All rights reserved. This publication may not be reproduced, stored in any information or retrieval system
or transmitted in whole or in part, in any form or by any means - electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording or otherwise - without the express written permission of Trendology Research.

Note: Every effort has been made to verify and ensure the accuracy of the information within this
publication. However, if any errors exist in this publication Trendology Research disclaims any liability for
any loss or damage to any party as a result of the information or errors in this publication.




     © 2010 U.S. Hotels and Motels Industry - Trendology Research                                               2
                                  U.S. Hotels & Motels Industry
                                          © 2010 Trendology Research


Economic Outlook Scenarios
Economic Outlook Scenarios are a unique Trendology method of projecting future industry growth or
decline. Each year when the Trendology reports are published, there are many factors that will impact
an industry in the upcoming year. Many factors would have a positive impact (termed optimistic economic
outlook scenarios) and others would have a negative impact (termed optimistic economic outlook scenarios).

Trendology Research believes these scenarios provide a useful tool for our clients so that they can 1) see
the factors that will potentially impact their industry's economy and 2) choose within a range the growth or
decline in their industry based on these economic factors.

The projections are based on regression analysis of past historical industry trends. 2007 and 2008 figures are
fixed. The 2009-2011 figures are projections are impacted by the economic outlook scenarios. 2009 figures
are impacted because at the time of publication, final data for the last months of 2009 were not available.

• Optimistic Economic Outlook Scenarios
                  1) Tax cuts remain in place
                  2) Consumer confidence improves
                  3) U.S. dollar grows in value against competitive countries
                  4) U.S. government's economic stimulus package is effective
                  5) Housing foreclosures decrease
                  6) Interest rate cuts are effective in stimulating investment
                  7) U.S. government is effective at stopping possible terrorist attacks on U.S. homeland
                  8) Oil prices decrease (supply increases or demand decreases due to conservation)
                  9) Illegal immigration decreases
                  10) Changes to trade regulation increases U.S. exports and improve trade balance
                  11) Federal health care bill does not become law



• Pessimistic Economic Outlook Scenarios
                  1) Tax increases are instituted
                  2) Consumer confidence continues to decline or remains constant
                  3) U.S. dollar continues to decline in value or remains at current value
                  4) U.S. government's economic stimulus package is ineffective
                  5) Housing foreclosures remain constant or increase
                  6) Interest rates cuts are mishandled and are not effective in stimulating investment
                  7) Terrorist attack on U.S. homeland
                  8) Oil prices continue to increase or remain at current level
                  9) Illegal immigration continues
                  10) No changes to trade regulations
                  11) Federal health care bill becomes law




     © 2010 U.S. Hotels and Motels Industry - Trendology Research                                                3
                                                            U.S. Hotels & Motels Industry
                                                                    © 2010 Trendology Research


Number of Industry Establishments
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                         Year                              % Change from Year to Year
   Scenarios                         2007                    2008     2009       2010       2011   07-08    08-09     09-10      10-11
    Optimistic                      --                      --       50678      51255      51753   --       -0.6%      1.1%       1.0%
      Stable                       50307                   50988     50668      51198      51684    1.4%    -0.6%      1.0%       0.9%
    Pessimistic                     --                      --       50658      51142      51614   --       -0.6%      1.0%       0.9%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                                     Industry Establishments (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                                   52000
                        Number of Establishments




                                                   51500

                                                   51000

                                                                                                      Number of Establishments
                                                   50500

                                                   50000

                                                   49500
                                                            2007    2008     2009   2010   2011




      © 2010 U.S. Hotels and Motels Industry - Trendology Research                                                                       4
                                               U.S. Hotels & Motels Industry
                                                    © 2010 Trendology Research


Industry Sales
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                         Year
   Scenarios               2007              2008     2009        2010      2011   07-08   08-09     09-10   10-11
    Optimistic            --                --      139331      145693    154473   --      -2.2%      4.6%    6.0%
      Stable            134878            142532    138873      143847    150150    5.7%   -2.6%      3.6%    4.4%
    Pessimistic           --                --      138416      142002    145826   --      -2.9%      2.6%    2.7%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                               Industry Sales (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                      155000

                                      150000

                                      145000
                         Sales ($M)




                                      140000
                                                                                               Sales ($M)
                                      135000

                                      130000

                                      125000
                                                2007     2008      2009     2010   2011




      © 2010 U.S. Hotels and Motels Industry - Trendology Research                                                   5
                                                        U.S. Hotels & Motels Industry
                                                            © 2010 Trendology Research


Number of Industry Employees
• Economic Outlook Scenarios

   Economic                                                                   Year
   Scenarios               2007    2008    2009    2010    2011                              07-08       08-09       09-10   10-11
    Optimistic            --      --    1460500 1477118 1491489                              --          -0.6%        1.1%    1.0%
      Stable           1449809 1469421 1460213 1475501 1489483                                1.4%       -0.6%        1.0%    0.9%
    Pessimistic           --      --    1459927 1473884 1487476                              --          -0.6%        1.0%    0.9%

*Economic Outlook Scenarios only apply to projected years.




                                                  Industry Employees (Stable Economy Scenario)
                                              1500000
                                              1490000
                        Number of Employees




                                              1480000
                                              1470000
                                              1460000
                                                                                                     Number of Employees
                                              1450000
                                              1440000
                                              1430000
                                              1420000
                                                         2007   2008   2009    2010   2011




      © 2010 U.S. Hotels and Motels Industry - Trendology Research                                                                   6
                                U.S. Hotels & Motels Industry
                                       © 2010 Trendology Research



Industry Definition and Related Industries
NAICS 72111: Hotels (except Casino Hotels) and Motels . This industry
comprises establishments primarily engaged in providing short-term
lodging in facilities known as hotels, motor hotels, resort hotels, and
motels. The establishments in this industry may offer services, such as
food and beverage services, recreational services, conference rooms
and convention services, laundry services, parking, and other services.

Related Industries
                Full-Service Restaurants
                Drinking Places
                Resorts and Casino
                Fast-Food Restaurants

U.S. Census Categories
NAICS 72111 – Hotels & Motels is:
77% comparable to SIC 7011 – Hotels & Motels
22% comparable to SIC 7041 – Organization Hotels




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                                   U.S. Hotels & Motels Industry
                                          © 2010 Trendology Research



• Internal Industry Strengths
• The reorganization of Marriott Int'l into four independent global regions will increase efficiency through local
management, but retain the cost savings of central marketing.
• Marriott Int'l plans to expand their properties outside N. Am. 130 hotel openings are scheduled within the next 4
years, half of them in emerging markets.
• Wyndham's timeshare brand, Wyndham Vacation Ownership, is not showing guest occupancy decline as of
late Sept. Since vacation stays are prepaid, it makes sense that guests would use their timeshares, despite the
recession.
• Hyatt, at the end of the 3Q, had a total debt of $857m, cash of $1.3b and no major debt maturities through
2012. Hyatt is using the cash generated from its IPO in early Nov. to purchase more properties.

• Gaylord Entertainment shows advanced bookings increasing and cancellations decreasing spelling recovery fo
this company. Gaylord ha
								
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