Migration in Cambridgeshire by gabyion

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									Assessing the demographic impact of
international migration in
Cambridgeshire


Julia Gumy (Research Officer – Population)
The Research Group

September 2008
Outline of the presentation



 Aim of the research
 Migration in Cambridgeshire
   Data and Methodology
   Results
   Policy implications
 Conclusions
Why migration?


 Apparent increase in international migration
 Questions:
  1.   Is migration really increasing?
  2.   Can we measure it?
  3.   Which are the areas affected?
  4.   Which are the main groups migrating?
  5.   How does this affect our population?
  6.   Which services do we need to provide?
Aim of the research



To assess the current and future impact of
 international migration in Cambridgeshire’s
 population......

          …..with a focus on migrant workers
Data sources

 Data                                      Information provided
 2001 Census                               Identifies people born abroad in 2001
 National Insurance Numbers                All people registered to work by residence
 Registrations (NINos) data                location
 Workers Registration Scheme (WRS)         Accession 8 (A8) nationals registered to
 data                                      work by workplace location
 General Practitioner (GP) registrations   All people registered with a doctor
 Regional College ESOL/EFL                 Uptake of English classes at
 enrolments                                Cambridgeshire’s Regional Colleges
 Pupil Level Annual School Census          Number of children in LEA schools for
 (PLASC)                                   whom English was not their first language
 University student data                   All University of Cambridge and Anglia
                                           Ruskin University students
Limitations of the data


  1.    Administrative data sources not designed to monitor
        migration
  2.    Ilustrate inflows but not outflows
  3.    No indication on length of stay
  4.    Do not represent stock of migrants
  5.    Data sources cannot be linked, which means:
       a) Different sample of overseas citizens
       b) Different fields of information
       c) Different time periods
  6.    Data cannot provide estimates of the number of
        migrants in Cambridgeshire or elsewhere
Strengths of the data



1. Allow us to study trends
2. When compared, the data can confirm observed
   patterns
3. Provide information at small geographical areas
4. Some data sources can be indicators of intended
   length of stay (e.g. GP data, ESOL enrolments)
Methodology


  1. Collection of the data since the year 2001
  2. Data cleansing and re-organisation
  3. Categorisation in continents of origin
  4. Reconciliation of the NINos and WRS where
     possible
  5. Analysis and comparison of data sources:

       a. Trend analysis
       b. Estimation of international migration
Methodology

 No data on length of stay or intentions
 Development of return rate scenarios:

          Scenario 1   30% of migrants each year have
                       returned home
          Scenario 2   50% of migrants each year have
                       returned home
          Scenario 3   70% of migrants each year have
                       returned home

Result: ‘most likely’ estimate of the number of migrant workers
  in Cambridgeshire
Cambridgeshire

 In the 2001 Census, 9% of the population in
 Cambridgeshire was born outside the UK

                                               Oceania
                                     Other       5%
                                      1%
                                                  Eastern Europe
                                                        5%
                    Western Europe                       Africa
                         34%                             11%




                                                         America
                                                          20%


                                        Asia
                                        24%

     Source: 2001 Census
Rank of LAs in the EoE

        Area                             No of NINos          No of WRS

        Bedfordshire County                     8,100               4,270
        Cambridgeshire County                  22,780              13,400
        Essex County                           19,040               7,090
        Hertfordshire County                   24,190              12,090
        Luton UA                               14,690               7,340
        Norfolk County                         17,650              12,720
        Peterborough UA                        13,210               8,420
        Southend-on-sea UA                      3,810               1,040
        Suffolk County                         13,520               6,180
        Thurrock UA                             3,350                 730

        East of England                       140,340              73,280
        United Kingdom                      1,815,570             608,600
        Source: WRS statistics and NINos
        Note:Totals may not add due to rounding
        For comparability purposes figures refer to the period 2004-07
Rank of Cambridgeshire
districts in the UK
                       NINos                                     WRS
           1     Northern Ireland                 1   Westminster
           2     Newham                           2   Northampton
           3     Brent                            3   Peterborough
           4     Birmingham                       4   Camden
           5     Ealing                           5   Herefordshire, County of
           6     Edinburgh, City of               6   Birmingham
           7     Tower Hamlets                    7   Bradford
           8     Westminster                      8   Luton
           9     Wandsworth                       9   Edinburgh
          10     Manchester                      10   Boston
          42     Peterborough                    28   Fenland
          52     Cambridge                       35   East Cambrideshire
          114    Huntingdonshire                 57   Cambridge
          137    Fenland                         95   Huntingdonshire
          164    East Cambridgeshire            157   South Cambridgeshire
          175    South Cambridgeshire
         *Out of 411 LAs (NINos data do not    *Out of 433 LAs
         include LAs N Ireland)
         Source: NINos and WRS statistics
         Note: NINos ranking refers to the year 2006-07 while WRS ranking refers to
         the period 2004-06
Work registrations by
continent of origin in Cambs

Around 30,000 non-UK born people have registered to work in
Cambridgeshire since 2001
                                                                           Africa
                                                              Oceania
                                                                            7%
                                                                5%
                                                                                America
                                         Western Europe                           7%
The highest numbers of                       23%
migrants are Polish,                                                                Asia
Lithuanians and Indians                                                             18%




                                                          Eastern Europe
                                                               40%



                   Source: NINos and WRS registrations data
Work registrations by
year of registration in Cambs

                                5000
                                4500
                                4000
    No of NINos registrations




                                3500
                                3000
                                2500
                                2000
                                1500
                                1000
                                500
                                  0
                                          2002             2003             2004            2005            2006

                                           Africa     America   Asia   Eastern Europe   Western Europe   Oceania



                                 Source: NINOs data
Work registrations by
district and nationality in Cambs


                                  16000

                                  14000
      No of NINos registrations




                                  12000

                                  10000

                                   8000

                                   6000

                                   4000

                                   2000

                                     0
                                          Cambridge City       South      Huntingdonshire       Fenland            East
                                                           Cambridgeshire                                      Cambridgeshire

                                                Western Europe    Eastern Europe   Asia     Africa   America    Oceania



                                  Source: NINOs
   Impact in Cambridgeshire

                                                                   Our best estimate is
                                                                  61,500 non-UK born people
                                                                  in Cambridgeshire
      Oceania

Western Europe                                                     11% of the current
                                                                  population, 2 percentage
Eastern Europe
                                                                  points more than in 2001
          Asia
                                                                   Most of the non-UK
      America
                                                                  population would be Western
         Africa                                                   European and Asian

                  0   5000    10000     15000     20000   25000    ONS estimates 69,000 (CI
                      2001 Census   NINos/WRS 2002-2006
                                                                  +/- 14,000) non-UK born
                                                                  citizens in Cambs (Source:
                                                                  Annual Population Survey)
 Change since 2001

                 2001 Census                        2001 Census + NINos/WRS



                         Africa                                   Africa
                          10%                                      10%
                                            Western Europe
Western Europe                    America
                                                 31%                       America
     33%                           15%                                      14%



                                                 Oceania
       Oceania
                                                   6%
         6%
                            Asia                                    Asia
                                              Eastern Europe
   Eastern Europe           29%                                     30%
                                                    9%
         7%




     Sources: 2001 Census, NINos/WRS data
Characteristics of migrants


 Eastern Europeans
     Short-term migrants
     Young (18-34)
     Mostly males
     Unaccompanied
     Employment dependant on the district
     Do not register with a GP (or perhaps not immediately)
     Not many registered for language courses
Characteristics of migrants


 Western Europeans
   High presence in industrial areas
        Employment linked to high-tech industry or University
   Short-term migration patterns
        Take up summer jobs and learn English
     Mostly young
     Evidence of some families with children
     Do not register with a GP
     Not many registered for language courses
Characteristics of migrants

 Asians
   Constant flow of Asians
   Decrease in the number of registrations
   Evidence of some families with children

 Americans
   Mostly linked to the armed forces
 Africans
   Low numbers
   Most migrants from South Africa
 Oceania
   Most migrants from Australia
Policy Implications

 Identification of priorities based on results

   Two examples:

   1.   Community Cohesion Strategy
         Targeted communication measures
         Access to guidance for employers to set minimum
          standards for migrant workers

   2.   Joint Strategic Needs Assessment
           Identify gaps and inequalities in the provision of health care
           Provide evidence for the NHS Cambridgeshire priorities
Conclusions
The demographic impact:

1.       International migration has increased since 2001
2.       How does this affect Cambridgeshire’s population?

          We estimate that 11% of Cambridgeshire’s population in 2006 was
           born outside the UK, indicating a slight increase since 2001, when
           the Census counted 9%
          The origin mix could have slightly changed
          Western Europeans and Asians would be the largest groups of non-
           UK born people in Cambridgeshire

3.       We found evidence to suggest numbers of new migrants
         may have already begun to decline
Conclusions

 Measurement of migration

  1.   We need better data
        Data tailored to study migration
        Better quality of the data
        More harmonisation
        Easier data linkage
        Information at small geographical levels
        Better data protection
  2.   Development of large scale longitudinal surveys
  3.   New Migrant Databank (NMD)
  4.   Population register - National Identity Register (NIR)
  5.   2011 Census
Conclusions


    Promote information sharing between academic and local
     government research:
    1. To improve understanding of migration flows
    2. Fill knowledge gaps
    3. Share knowledge
    4. Share best practices
    5. Achieve good quality results
For more information:

    The Research Group
    Cambridgeshire County Council
    Shire Hall
    Castle Hill
    Cambridge
    CB3 0AP
    E-mail: research.group@cambridgeshire.gov.uk
    Tel: 01223 715300

								
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