Modal shift and decoupling transport growth from GDP growth by fop21123

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									Modal shift and decoupling transport growth from
      GDP growth for passenger transport
            Huib van Essen, CE Delft
               Focus group meeting 2b
         7 July 2009, European Commission
                www.eutransportghg2050.eu


                                              1
                 Overview of presentation

1. Modal shift passenger transport
   •   Trends
   •   Drivers
   •   Modal comparison
   •   Potential of modal shift
   •   Policy options


2. Decoupling passenger transport from GDP growth
   • Trends
   • Drivers
   • Policy and barriers options


3. Conclusions/discussion/questions
                                                    2
                  Projected development passenger
                             modal split
           9000
                                                                              air
           8000
                                                                              bus
           7000
                                                                              rail
           6000
                                                                              passenger car &
           5000                                                               motorbike
[10 pkm]




           4000
9




           3000

           2000

                                                                             source: DG TREN
           1000

              0
              1990   1995   2000   2005   2010   2015   2020   2025   2030


                                                                                                3
Drivers behind the trends in modal split

• Increased car ownership, particularly in the new EU member states.
• More flexible and faster transport needed for combining tasks at
  increasing number of locations (related trends: women participation
  labour market, increase in leisure activities)
• Current transport costs structure (with high share of fixed vehicle
  costs rather variable costs linked to transport usage).
• Urban sprawl: in suburbs accessibility to basic services by public
  transport, cycling or walking decreases.




                                                                        4
                                  Modal comparisons (1)


                         CO2 emissions per passenger-km in 2030
CO2 (gram/ pkm)




                  200
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                   50
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                                                                                               5
Modal comparisons (2)

                             CO2 (g/passenger-km); short range; 2020

                                     Average util.   1 pass.     2 pass.        3 pass.   4 pass.
200
180
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140
120
100
 80
 60
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 20
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                                                                                                         6
Modal comparisons (3)

                               CO2 (g/passenger-km); long range; 2020

                               Average util.     1 pass.      2 pass.        3 pass.   4 pass.   CO2-eq
400
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                                                                                          Source: STREAM
                                                                                                           7
Conclusion from modal comparisons
passenger transport

• Car and motorcycles emit more CO2 per pkm than most public
  transport modes, but highly dependant on vehicle utilisation.
• Rail transport and long range coaches show lowest emissions
• When all emissions of a trip are accounted for, the difference
  between modes is not that great.
• Emissions per pkm of aircraft are much higher than of surface bound
  modes, especially when all GHG effects are included.
• High sensitivity to the degree of utilisation: car with four people
  almost best in class, while car with one occupant scores badly.
• Modal comparison at the long term uncertain.




                                                                    8
Potential modal shift passenger transport
                                Reduction CO2
                                emission
              short range*      STREAM TREMOVE
                Car to IC train    60%        67%
                 Car to metro      28%        93%
              long range*
                Car to IC train    31%        67%
                    Air to High
                 speed train**     76%        78%


   • Potential shift in pkm found in literature: share rail from 10%
   now to 17% in 2030 and 33% in 2050.
   • Conditions: all rail infra upgraded to the level of highly
   populated areas and travel cost & times competitive.
   • Preliminary estimates for potential CO2 reduction of modal
   shift: 2 - 14%.
   • No agreement on the CO2 reduction potential: some see very
   limited potential at high cost while others are more optimistic.    9
Policy that can contribute to modal shift

•   Infrastructure policy
•   Spatial policy
•   Improving interconnectivity of intermodal networks
•   Transport pricing
•   Speed limits




                                                         10
Limited decoupling




                     11
GDP growth vs passenger transport growth




                                       12
Main drivers passenger transport growth

• Speed, cost and quality: travelling has become faster, cheaper,
  more comfortable and reliable.
• Shift to ever faster modes of transport; the time persons spent on
  travelling has nearly stayed the same.
• The following forces made the switch to faster transport modes
  possible:
    – Technological improvements (both vehicle and infra), each mode has
      become faster, cheaper and more comfortable
    – Increasing purchasing power
    – Social forces (i.e. Status)
    – Reductions in travel costs, promoted the shift to faster modes




                                                                           13
Transport speed and passenger transport demand




                                             14
Trend in passenger transport cost




                                    15
Average speed increases steadily since 1800…




                                               16
Long term expectation of modal shares




                                        17
Policies and barriers

• Transport pricing options:
    – Price increase (price elasticities passenger cars
    – Variabilisation: from fixed to variable taxes and charges
• Infrastructure policy: less fast growth capacity will result in
  increasing travel times this will ultimately result in a decreasing
  transport demand.
• Speed limits: increased travel times result in the long run in a
  decrease in the transport demand.
• Urban planning, e.g. compact cities with all basic facilities in the
  neighbourhood.
• Measures in other sectors: tax levels for buying/selling a house
  and policies aimed at teleworking , teleconferencing.
• Main barrier for curbing freight transport demand growth: the
  risk of adverse economic impacts.

                                                                         18
                             Conclusions

•   No modal shift to rail and public transport expected, rather to
    aviation.
•   Significant differences in average GHG intensity of modes.
•   Impact of modal shift depends strongly on vehicle utilization.
•   Estimates for modal shift potential ranges from 2 to 14%.
•   Demand growth main driver behind GHG growth passenger
    transport.
•   Higher speed (shift to fast modes, GDP growth, increased car
    ownership) and low cost main drivers behind transport growth
•   Main policy options for modal shift and demand management:
    –   Spatial and urban planning
    –   Infrastructure policy
    –   Transport pricing
    –   Speed limits

                                                                  19
                           Questions

• How much passenger modal shift is possible till 2050?

• What do see as GHG reduction potential of passenger modal shift?

• What would be needed for a substantial modal shift?

• Do you agree that passenger transport growth is the main driver for
  passenger transport GHG emissions?

• Do you agree that increased speed is the main driver for passenger
  transport growth?

• What do you regard as the main options for decoupling passenger
  transport growth from GDP growth?
                                                                    20

								
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