Development and Utilization of a Gas-Fired Generating Unit Pipeline Contract Database
Fuel Diversity Working Group Electric/Gas Wholesale Initiative November 3, 2004 Mark Babula ISO New England Inc.
Key Issues
• Enhance Electric Power System Reliability • Enhance Electric Forecasting Process • Enhance Knowledge of Natural Gas Contracting • Enhance Planning Capabilities & Gas-Side Modeling • Process Available for Winter 2004/2005
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Background
• To date, all of ISO’s gas assessments and scenario building has looked at New England from a “gas transportation” basis:
– Phase I - Steady-State Gas Study – Phase II - Transient Analysis Gas Study – Multi-Regional Gas Study (IMO,PJM,NYISO,ISO-NE & NERC)
• In reality, gas pipeline contracts will dictate where the natural gas is delivered during cold weather, with little or no impact from electric market needs & wants
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Deliverables
• In the Fall of 2003, FERC contracted Merrimack Energy to provide the subject information to support their assessment of New England’s growing reliance on natural gas, culminating in the report entitled “New England Natural Gas Infrastructure” - Docket No. PL04-01-000, December 2003. • ISO has since contracted with Merrimack Energy and obtained the revised database of all gas-fired generating unit pipeline capacity contracts. Information includes;
– Lateral vs. mainline capacity // LCD or pipeline interconnect – Primary & secondary receipt and delivery points – Contract type, term and expiration date
• ISO has an annual option to request/receive and updated version of this database in September of each year, at the same time when New England’s gas-sector is gearing-up for winter operations.
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Process
• The pipeline contract database identifies specific paths and contract terms for each gas-fired unit in New England • Assuming pipeline constraints will occur during future Cold Snaps, each gas unit’s capability will be separated into 3 distinct categories: – Green: These contracts will flow during the Cold Snaps – Yellow: These contracts may flow during Cold Snaps – Red: These contracts will not flow during Cold Snaps
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Contract Database & Forecasting
• The database has been re-formatted for ease of use by ISO Forecasters • ISO Forecast Office will receive timely notifications of pipeline Critical Notices/OFOs via e-mail (EBB access) • A quick cross-reference will then provide ISO Forecasters with a picture of which generators are capable of delivering MW and which generators are “at-risk”, which then initiates other appropriate actions
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Timeline
• August 1st - Merrimack Energy completed development of the pipeline capacity database and delivers to ISO-NE • September 1st – ISO-NE completes fine-tuning of gas-fired generating unit pipeline capabilities • September 15th – ISO-NE completes re-formatting the contracts database for Forecast Office use • October 1st - Assessment of generator contracts and development of “Winter Cold Snap Plan”
• October 19th - Forecaster Training
• November 15th - Implementation complete
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Questions
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