NEW ZEALAND REGIONAL TOURISM FORECASTS 2009-2015 - PDF

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					NEW ZEALAND REGIONAL
TOURISM FORECASTS 2009-2015
AUCKLAND RTO
SEPTEMBER 2009 | www.tourismresearch.govt.nz
Contents

Introduction                                                                                                            1
1. Summary for Auckland RTO                                                                                             2
2. Visits to Auckland RTO                                                                                               4
3. Visits to Auckland RTO by Origin of Traveller                                                                        5
4. Visitor Nights in Auckland RTO                                                                                       6
5. Visitor Nights in Auckland RTO by Origin of Traveller                                                                7
Appendix                                                                                                                8



This report is one of a series of reports produced within the Ministry of Tourism’s annual forecasting programme.
The main report titles within the 2009 programme are:

 New Zealand Tourism Forecasts 2009-2015 – Summary Document
 New Zealand Regional Tourism Forecasts 2009-2015
  (These are individual reports for Regional Tourism Organisation areas (RTOs))

These forecast reports, as well as pivot tables, are available for download at www.tourismresearch.govt.nz/forecasts.

All of the forecasting reports are prepared for the Ministry of Tourism by Covec Limited.

Ministry of Tourism
PO Box 5640
Wellington
New Zealand
Ph:      +64 4 498 7440
Fax:     +64 4 498 7445
Email: info@tourism.govt.nz
Web: www.tourism.govt.nz; www.tourismresearch.govt.nz

Covec Limited
Ph:     +64 9 916 1970
Fax:    +64 9 916 1971
Email: info@covec.co.nz
Web: www.covec.co.nz

Image Credits:
Pancake Rocks, Punakaiki – Antonia Westmacott
Fern – Rebecca Davis, www.moxie.co.nz
Introduction

This report contains detailed tourism forecasts for the      For example, these regional forecasts are driven off data
Auckland RTO area that can be used to support local          that has been smoothed to reduce the volatility caused
tourism investment, planning and development. The            by small sample sizes. The smoothing process involves
annual forecasts cover the period 2009-2015 and              combining data across multiple time periods in small
provide estimates of future visits and visitor nights        sample areas to show long-term trends and relativities.
segmented by the origins of international and domestic       The result is much smoother historical data that
travellers, purpose of travel and type of travel (day and    preserves regional differences and more accurately
overnight trips).                                            represents the underlying growth trends.

More information can be found in electronic format in        The IVS and DTS data has also been adjusted to
the regional pivot tables which can be downloaded from       include travel by children under 15 years of age who fall
www.tourismresearch.govt.nz/forecasts. The regional          outside the scope of the surveys. In addition, some
pivot tables allow users to view historical and forecast     government and business travel is not captured in the
data at the regional level in both tabular and graphical     DTS because it is primarily a household survey.
form.
                                                             Forecasts of regional tourism spend are not available in
The historical data is derived from the International        the current series, and will be produced once a new
Visitor Survey (IVS) and the Domestic Travel Survey          methodology has been developed.
(DTS). The Ministry of Tourism acknowledges that the
                                                             A review and update of the forecasts will be conducted
statistical sampling error in some regions is quite high
                                                             and released in early 2010.
and it continues to put measures in place to improve
future accuracy.

Definitions of Key Tourism Measures

                     Domestic                                        International
Day Trip             A trip by a person of at least 40km (one way)   Not applicable.
                     within New Zealand but outside their usual
                     environment, completed within the same day.
Overnight Trip       A trip by a person resulting in one or more     A trip by a person that results in one or more
                     nights being spent away from home within        nights being spent in New Zealand.
                     New Zealand.
Day Visit            The number of people visiting the RTO area for one hour or more without staying a night.
Overnight Visit      The number of people visiting the RTO area and staying at least one night.
Visitor Nights       The number of visitor nights spent in the RTO area in all forms of accommodation.
Origin               Regional council areas (see full list in        Australia, United States, Canada, Japan,
                     Appendix).                                      South Korea, China, United Kingdom,
                                                                     Germany, Rest of World.




                                                                                                                      1
Summary for Auckland RTO

Total Visits                                                                        Figure 1: Visits to Auckland RTO by Origin of Traveller
 Total visits by travellers to Auckland RTO are forecast to                                  ('000s)

  rise from 12.50m in 2008 to 13.66m in 2015 - an                                                                                         2008   2015f

  increase of 9.3% (1.16m) or 1.3% p.a.
 International visits are expected to increase from 2.49m                             Domestic
  in 2008 to 2.95m in 2015, representing growth of
  461,000 or 18.5%. The share of total visits generated by
  international visitors is expected to increase from 19.9%
  to 21.6%.                                                                        International
 Domestic visits are expected to increase from 10.00m in
  2008 to 10.71m in 2015, representing growth of 702,100
  or 7.0%. The share of total visits generated by domestic                                         0    2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
  visitors is expected to decrease from 80.1% to 78.4%.

  Figure 2: Visitor Nights in Auckland RTO by Origin of                           Total Visitor Nights
            Traveller ('000s)                                                      Total visitor nights in Auckland RTO are forecast to rise
                                                           2008    2015f            from 24.26m in 2008 to 27.19m in 2015 - an increase of
                                                                                    12.1% (2.93m) or 1.6% p.a.
                                                                                   International visitor nights are expected to increase
    Domestic
                                                                                    from 17.45m in 2008 to 20.11m in 2015, representing
                                                                                    growth of 2.66m or 15.2%. The share of total visitor
                                                                                    nights generated by international visitors is expected to
                                                                                    increase from 71.9% to 73.9%.
 International                                                                     Domestic visitor nights are expected to increase from
                                                                                    6.81m in 2008 to 7.08m in 2015, representing growth of
                                                                                    277,000 or 4.1%. The share of total visitor nights
                 0        5,000        10,000    15,000   20,000   25,000           generated by domestic visitors is expected to decrease
                                                                                    from 28.1% to 26.1%.


Figure 3: Shares of Total Visits to Auckland RTO by Origin of Traveller (%)
                                                                              Domestic         International                  2008    2015f
   45

   40

   35

   30

   25

   20

   15

   10

   5

   0
        ND   AK      WK   BP      GS     HB     TA   MW WG   MB    NL   WC   CA   OT     SD   AU   UK   JP     SK   CH   US    DE    CA   RW




                                                                                                                                                         2
Figure 4: Shares of Total Visitor Nights in Auckland RTO by Origin of Traveller (%)
                                                                           Domestic          International                  2008    2015f
   40

   35

   30

   25

   20

   15

   10

   5

   0
         ND   AK   WK      BP   GS   HB    TA     MW WG   MB    NL   WC   CA   OT     SD   AU    UK     JP   SK   CH   US    DE    CA   RW



Table 1: Summary of Tourism Forecasts for Auckland RTO
                   Calendar                         Visits (000s)                                        Av. Nights per
 Market                                                                               Nights ('000s)
                   Year              Overnight               Day           Total                                   Visit
 Domestic          2006                   3,577           6,839           10,416                6,763              1.89
                   2007                   3,370           6,083            9,453                6,777              2.01
                   2008                   3,643           6,360           10,004                6,807              1.87
                   2009f                  3,705           6,443           10,148                6,952              1.88
                   2010f                  3,791           6,525           10,316                7,110              1.88
                   2011f                  3,818           6,607           10,425                7,160              1.88
                   2012f                  3,807           6,687           10,494                7,141              1.88
                   2013f                  3,791           6,768           10,559                7,112              1.88
                   2014f                  3,785           6,848           10,633                7,098              1.88
                   2015f                  3,778           6,928           10,706                7,084              1.88
 International     2006                   2,183             278            2,461             16,263                7.45
                   2007                   2,212             281            2,493             16,490                7.46
                   2008                   2,210             283            2,493             17,449                7.90
                   2009f                  2,082             269            2,351             16,115                7.74
                   2010f                  2,142             275            2,416             16,581                7.74
                   2011f                  2,291             292            2,583             17,631                7.70
                   2012f                  2,350             300            2,650             18,126                7.71
                   2013f                  2,441             310            2,751             18,773                7.69
                   2014f                  2,530             320            2,851             19,424                7.68
                   2015f                  2,623             331            2,954             20,106                7.67
 Total             2006                   5,760          7,117            12,878             23,026                4.00
                   2007                   5,582          6,364            11,945             23,267                4.17
                   2008                   5,853          6,644            12,497             24,257                4.14
                   2009f                  5,787          6,712            12,498             23,067                3.99
                   2010f                  5,933          6,799            12,732             23,691                3.99
                   2011f                  6,109          6,899            13,008             24,791                4.06
                   2012f                  6,157          6,987            13,144             25,268                4.10
                   2013f                  6,232          7,078            13,310             25,885                4.15
                   2014f                  6,315          7,168            13,483             26,522                4.20
                   2015f                  6,401          7,259            13,660             27,191                4.25
                                                   Growth 2009-2015
 Domestic          Change                  134              568             702                  277               0.01
                   Total                  3.7%             8.9%            7.0%                 4.1%              0.4%
                   Annual                 0.5%             1.2%            1.0%                 0.6%              0.1%
 International     Change                413                  48            461               2,657                -0.23
                   Total               18.7%              16.9%           18.5%              15.2%                -2.9%
                   Annual               2.5%               2.3%            2.5%               2.0%                -0.4%
 Total             Change                  547              616            1,163              2,934                0.10
                   Total                  9.4%             9.3%            9.3%              12.1%                2.5%
                   Annual                 1.3%             1.3%            1.3%               1.6%                0.4%




                                                                                                                                             3
1. Visits to Auckland RTO

Total Visits                                                      Figure 5: Visits to Auckland RTO by Origin of Traveller and
 In 2008 international and domestic travellers made a                      Trip Type ('000s)
                                                                                International Overnight       International Day
  total of 12.50m visits to Auckland RTO. International
                                                                                Domestic Overnight            Domestic Day
  overnight travellers accounted for 2.21m (17.7%) of            9,000
                                                                 8,000
  these visits, domestic overnight travellers 3.64m
                                                                 7,000
  (29.2%), international day travellers 283,100 (2.3%) and
                                                                 6,000
  domestic day travellers 6.36m (50.9%).                         5,000
 By 2015 total visits to Auckland RTO are forecast to           4,000
  increase by 1.16m (9.3%) to 13.66m, with international         3,000

  overnight visits up 413,200 (18.7%) to 2.62m, domestic         2,000
                                                                 1,000
  overnight visits up 134,100 (3.7%) to 3.78m,
                                                                      0
  international day visits up 47,800 (16.9%) to 330,900
                                                                           03 04 05 06 07 08 09f 10f 11f 12f 13f 14f 15f
  and domestic day visits up 568,000 (8.9%) to 6.93m.

 Figure 6: Shares of International Visits to Auckland RTO by    International Visits
           Purpose of Trip in 2008 (%)                           In 2008 holiday travellers generated 55.9% of
                                              Overnight   Day
 60
                                                                  international overnight visits to Auckland RTO,
                                                                  travellers visiting friends and relatives (VFR) 25.3%,
 50
                                                                  business travellers 9.9%, education travellers 3.9% and
 40                                                               other travellers 5.1%. This distribution is not expected
                                                                  to change greatly over the forecast period.
 30
                                                                 Holiday travellers generated 47.4% of international day
 20                                                               visits to Auckland RTO in 2008, VFR travellers 35.9%,
 10                                                               business travellers 6.2%, education travellers 4.9% and
                                                                  other travellers 5.6%. No significant change in the
  0
                                                                  purpose composition is expected between 2008 and
       Holiday     VFR      Business   Education    Other
                                                                  2015.


Domestic Visits                                                   Figure 7: Shares of Domestic Visits to Auckland RTO by
 In 2008 holiday travellers generated 38.2% of domestic                    Purpose of Trip in 2008 (%)

  overnight visits to Auckland RTO, VFR travellers 41.8%,                                                            Overnight    Day
                                                                 50
  business travellers 16.2%, education travellers 1.3%
  and other travellers 2.5%. This distribution is not            40

  expected to change greatly over the forecast period.
                                                                 30
 Holiday travellers generated 40.8% of domestic day
  visits to Auckland RTO in 2008, VFR travellers 32.0%,          20
  business travellers 21.6%, education travellers 1.5%
  and other travellers 4.2%. No significant change in the        10

  purpose composition is expected between 2008 and
                                                                  0
  2015.                                                                   Holiday      VFR        Business   Education      Other




                                                                                                                                        4
2. Visits to Auckland RTO by Origin of Traveller

International Visits                                                 Figure 8: Shares of International Visits to Auckland RTO by
 International visits to Auckland RTO are expected to                         Origin of Traveller (%)
                                                                                                                   2008   2015f
  increase from 2.49m in 2008 to 2.95m in 2015,                     35
  representing growth of 461,000 or 18.5%.
                                                                    30
 Travellers from Australia accounted for the largest share
                                                                    25
  of international visits to Auckland RTO in 2008 at
  30.8%, followed by the United Kingdom at 14.5% and                20

  the United States at 8.3%.                                        15
 In 2015 the largest share of international visits to              10
  Auckland RTO is expected to come from Australia at                 5
  32.1%, followed by the United Kingdom at 12.4% and
                                                                     0
  China at 9.2%.
                                                                          AU    UK    JP    SK    CH    US    DE    CA    RW



  Figure 9: Shares of Domestic Visits to Auckland RTO by           Domestic Visits
            Origin of Traveller (%)                                 Domestic visits to Auckland RTO are expected to
                                                 2008   2015f
 60
                                                                     increase from 10.00m in 2008 to 10.71m in 2015,
                                                                     representing growth of 702,100 or 7.0%.
 50
                                                                    Travellers from Auckland accounted for the largest
 40                                                                  share of domestic visits to Auckland RTO in 2008 at
                                                                     49.0%, followed by Waikato at 20.7% and Northland at
 30
                                                                     8.6%.
 20                                                                 In 2015 the largest share of domestic visits to Auckland
 10                                                                  RTO is expected to come from Auckland at 49.9%,
                                                                     followed by Waikato at 20.3% and Northland at 8.4%.
  0
      ND AK WK BP GS HB TA MW WG MB NL WC CA OT SD




Table 2: Shares of Visits to Auckland RTO by Origin of Traveller




Note: The “change” column describes the percentage point
difference, not the actual percentage change.




                                                                                                                                  5
3. Visitor Nights in Auckland RTO

Total Visitor Nights                                              Figure 10: Visitor Nights in Auckland RTO by Origin of
 In 2008 international and domestic travellers spent a                      Traveller ('000s)

  total of 24.26m visitor nights in Auckland RTO.                                         International       Domestic
                                                                   25,000
  International travellers accounted for 17.45m (71.9%) of
  these nights and domestic travellers the remaining               20,000

  6.81m (28.1%).
                                                                   15,000
 By 2015 total visitor nights in Auckland RTO are
  forecast to increase by 2.93m (12.1%) to 27.19m, with            10,000
  international visitor nights up 2.66m (15.2%) to 20.11m
  and domestic visitor nights up 277,000 (4.1%) to 7.08m.           5,000


                                                                        0
                                                                              03 04 05 06 07 08 09f 10f 11f 12f 13f 14f 15f



Figure 11: Share of International Visitor Nights in Auckland      International Visitor Nights
           RTO by Purpose of Trip in 2008 (%)                      In 2008 holiday travellers generated 24.3% of
                                                   2008   2015f
 50                                                                 international visitor nights spent in Auckland RTO,
                                                                    travellers visiting friends and relatives (VFR) 38.3%,
 40                                                                 business travellers 7.7%, education travellers 11.8%
                                                                    and other travellers 17.9%. This distribution is not
 30
                                                                    expected to change greatly over the forecast period.
 20

 10


  0
      Holiday      VFR      Business   Education      Other



Domestic Visitor Nights                                           Figure 12: Share of Domestic Visitor Nights in Auckland RTO
 In 2008 holiday travellers generated 35.5% of domestic                     by Purpose of Trip in 2008 (%)
                                                                                                                    2008     2015f
  visitor nights spent in Auckland RTO, VFR travellers             50
  44.3%, business travellers 15.7%, education travellers
  1.3% and other travellers 3.2%. No significant change            40

  in the purpose composition is expected between 2008
                                                                   30
  and 2015.
                                                                   20


                                                                   10


                                                                    0
                                                                            Holiday   VFR       Business   Education       Other




                                                                                                                                     6
4. Visitor Nights in Auckland RTO by Origin of Traveller

International Visitor Nights                                        Figure 13: Shares of International Visitor Nights in Auckland
 International visitor nights in Auckland RTO are                             RTO by Origin of Traveller (%)
                                                                                                                    2008   2015f
  expected to increase from 17.45m in 2008 to 20.11m in              50
  2015, representing growth of 2.66m or 15.2%.                       45
 Travellers from Australia accounted for the largest share          40
                                                                     35
  of international visitor nights in Auckland RTO in 2008 at
                                                                     30
  16.3%, followed by the United Kingdom at 13.2% and                 25
  China at 6.5%.                                                     20
 In 2015 the largest share of international visitor nights in       15
                                                                     10
  Auckland RTO is expected to come from Australia at
                                                                      5
  16.2%, followed by the United Kingdom at 11.8% and
                                                                      0
  China at 7.4%.                                                           AU   UK     JP    SK    CH    US    DE     CA    RW



Figure 14: Shares of Domestic Visitor Nights in Auckland RTO       Domestic Visitor Nights
           by Origin of Traveller (%)                               Domestic visitor nights in Auckland RTO are expected
                                               2008   2015f
 25                                                                  to increase from 6.81m in 2008 to 7.08m in 2015,
                                                                     representing growth of 277,000 or 4.1%.
 20                                                                 Travellers from Auckland accounted for the largest
                                                                     share of domestic visitor nights in Auckland RTO in
 15
                                                                     2008 at 20.5%, followed by Waikato at 14.4% and
 10                                                                  Wellington at 14.4%.
                                                                    In 2015 the largest share of domestic visitor nights in
  5
                                                                     Auckland RTO is expected to come from Auckland at
                                                                     19.8%, followed by Waikato at 14.6% and Wellington at
  0
      ND AK WK BP GS HB TA MW WG MB NL WC CA OT SD                   14.6%.



Table 3: Shares of Visitor Nights in Auckland RTO by Origin of Traveller




Note: The “change” column describes the percentage point
difference, not the actual percentage change.




                                                                                                                                    7
Appendix

Table A1: Origins of Visitors and Abbreviations

Domestic Origins (Regional Council Areas)                                           International Origins
Northland Region (ND)                       Nelson-Tasman Region (NL)               Australia (AU)
Auckland Region (AK)                        Marlborough Region (MB)                 United Kingdom (UK)
Waikato Region (WK)                         West Coast Region (WC)                  Japan (JP)
Bay of Plenty Region (BP)                   Canterbury Region (CA)                  South Korea (SK)
Gisborne Region (GB)                        Otago Region (OT)                       China (CH)
Hawke’s Bay Region (HB)                     Southland Region (SD)                   United States (US)
Taranaki Region (TA)                                                                Germany (GE)
Manawatu-Wanganui Region (MW)                                                       Canada (CA)
Wellington Region (WG)                                                              Rest of the World (RW)



Table A2: RTOs and Constituent Territorial Authorities
Northland RTO                 Far North Di                      Wanganui RTO                  Wanganui Di
                              Kaipara Di                        Wairarapa RTO                 Carterton Di
                              Whangarei Di                                                    Masterton Di
Auckland RTO                  Auckland City                                                   South Wairarapa Di
                              Franklin Di                       Kapiti-Horowhenua RTO         Horowhenua Di
                              Manukau City                                                    Kapiti Coast Di
                              North Shore City                  Wellington RTO                Lower Hutt City
                              Papakura Di                                                     Porirua City
                              Rodney Di                                                       Upper Hutt City
                              Waitakere City                                                  Wellington City
Coromandel RTO                Hauraki Di                        Marlborough RTO               Marlborough Di
                              Thames-Coromandel Di              Nelson RTO                    Nelson City
Waikato***                    Hamilton City                                                   Tasman Di
                              Matamata-Piako Di                 Canterbury RTO                Ashburton Di
                              Otorohanga Di                                                   Chatham Islands Territory
                              South Waikato Di                                                Christchurch City
                              Waikato Di                                                      Hurunui Di*
                              Waipa Di                                                        Kaikoura Di
                              Waitomo Di                                                      Mackenzie Di*
Bay of Plenty RTO             Tauranga City                                                   Selwyn Di
                              Western Bay of Plenty Di                                        Timaru Di*
Rotorua RTO                   Rotorua Di                                                      Waimakariri Di
Lake Taupo RTO                Taupo Di                                                        Waimate Di
Kawerau-Whakatane***          Kawerau Di                        Hurunui RTO                   Hurunui Di*
                              Whakatane Di                      Central South Island RTO      Timaru Di*
Eastland RTO                  Gisborne Di                       MacKenzie RTO                 Mackenzie Di*
                              Opotiki Di                        Waitaki RTO                   Waitaki Di
Taranaki RTO                  New Plymouth Di                   West Coast RTO                Buller Di
                              South Taranaki Di                                               Grey Di
                              Stratford Di                                                    Westland Di
Hawke's Bay RTO               Central Hawke's Bay Di            Lake Wanaka RTO               Queenstown-Lakes Di**
                              Hastings Di                       Queenstown RTO                Queenstown-Lakes Di**
                              Napier City                       Central Otago RTO             Central Otago Di
                              Wairoa Di                         Dunedin RTO                   Dunedin City
Ruapehu RTO                   Ruapehu Di                        Clutha***                     Clutha Di
Manawatu RTO                  Manawatu Di                       Fiordland RTO                 Southland Di**
                              Palmerston North City             Southland RTO                 Gore Di
                              Rangitikei Di                                                   Invercargill City
                              Tararua Di                                                      Southland Di**

*Also counted as part of Canterbury RTO; **Divided into two RTOs; ***Currently not a funded RTO; Di = District



                                                                                                                          8
Figure A1: Map of New Zealand RTO Areas




                                          9
Table A2: Sample Sizes Underlying Regional Estimates in 2008
                            International Visits     Domestic Visits
Destination                Overnight         Day   Overnight       Day
Auckland RTO                   4,847        816         976       770
Bay of Plenty RTO                429        185         337       266
Canterbury RTO                 3,558        992         696       452
Central Otago RTO                 70        107          80        66
Central South Island RTO         184        115          62        78
Coromandel RTO                   472        212         370       213
Dunedin RTO                      811        183         203       132
Eastland RTO                     132         29         117        77
Fiordland RTO                    842      1,013          52        39
Hawke's Bay RTO                  488        114         268       219
Hurunui RTO                      205        156          85        76
Kapiti-Horowhenua RTO            105         94         101       167
Lake Taupo RTO                   744        332         277       184
Lake Wanaka RTO                  535        225          82        58
Mackenzie RTO                    685        548          45        30
Manawatu RTO                     195         93         200       216
Marlborough RTO                  530        265         125        94
Nelson RTO                       992        405         186       146
Northland RTO                    986        709         433       422
Queenstown RTO                 1,634        568         189       114
Rotorua RTO                    1,389        366         258       231
Ruapehu RTO                      204         87          90        65
Southland RTO                    334        186         102       106
Taranaki RTO                     229         54         148       166
Waikato RTO                      676        713         424       469
Wairarapa RTO                     89         99          89       110
Waitaki RTO                      263        235          53        65
Wanganui RTO                     107         32          55        52
Wellington RTO                 1,728        202         499       243
West Coast RTO                 1,851        970         136       109
New Zealand                  25,478     10,196        6,817     5,533


The figures in the table above describe to the number of respondents to the International Visitor Survey (IVS) and
Domestic Travel Survey (DTS) that reported visiting each RTO in 2008. The number of visitations is equivalent to the
sample size for a region e.g. the 2008 estimate of international overnight visits to Auckland is based on a sample of
4,847 responses.

The IVS is based on a sample of 5,200 departing international visitors each year, and the DTS is based on 15,000
telephone interviews each year, of which approximately 6,000 report one or more domestic trips within the recall
period.




                                                                                                                  10