California Voter Opinions of Proposition 13 and Tax Matters Thirty Years After its Passage
– conducted by –
The Field Poll
The Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
June 6, 2008
The Field Poll IGS
– in conjunction with –
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About the Survey
• Sample Size: 1,052 California registered voters, although some questions are based on split samples of either 502 or 550 registered voters statewide. • Sampling Method: Voters randomly sampled from a statewide list of California registered voters. • Interview Method: Conducted by telephone using live interviewers in English and Spanish. Calls placed on either a voter’s landline or cell phone.
• Interviewing Dates: May 17-26, 2008. • Callbacks: Up to 6 attempts made to reach each registered voter. • Weighting: Results were weighted slightly to align the samples to characteristics of the state’s registered voter population. • Sampling Error: +/- 3.2 percent at the 95% confidence level for results based on the total sample; +/- 4.5 percent for results based on each split sample.
The Field Poll IGS
1 1
Table 1
Voter familiarity with Proposition 13 thirty years after its passage
% “very familiar” Total
37%
Renter
16% 46%
33% Not too/ not at all familiar
37% Very familiar
Homeowner Where Home Purchased Past 5 years
29% 39% 42% 62% 75%
2 2
30% Somewhat familiar
5 – 10 years ago 11 – 20 years ago
21 – 30 years ago > 30 years ago
The Field Poll
IGS
Table 2
Voting preferences if Proposition 13 were up for a vote again today
% “favor” Total
57%
20% Not sure 57% Favor
Renter Homeowner Where Home Purchased Past 5 years 5 – 10 years ago 11 – 20 years ago
41% 64%
23% Oppose
54% 63% 63% 66% 79%
3 3
21 – 30 years ago > 30 years ago
The Field Poll
IGS
Table 3
Change Prop. 13 to gradually raise the property taxes of long-time property owners, so the amount they pay is more in line with the amount paid by recent buyers of similarly valued property
% “approve”
No opinion Total
27%
7%
27% Approve Renter
36% 25%
Homeowner 66% Disapprove
Where Home Purchased Past 10 years 11 – 20 years ago > 20 years ago
26% 32% 17%
4 4
Note: Asked of a split sample of 502 registered voters statewide.
The Field Poll
IGS
Table 4
Change Prop. 13 to allow your local government to increase property taxes by more than 2% per year
% “approve”
No opinion Total
17%
5%
17% Approve
Party registration Democrats
21% 10% 21%
Republicans
78% Disapprove Non-partisans/others
Tenure
Renter Homeowner
Note: Asked of a split sample of 550 registered voters statewide.
20% 16%
5 5
The Field Poll
IGS
Table 5
Change Prop. 13 to enable the state legislature to increase taxes by a simple majority vote (with and without mention of the state’s current budget situation)
No opinion 5% 23% Approve No opinion 6% 25% Approve
72% Disapprove
69% Disapprove
Without mention of current state budget deficit
When current state budget deficit is mentioned
Note: Each question asked of a split sample of 502 or 550 registered voters statewide.
The Field Poll
IGS
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Table 6
Change Prop. 13 by taxing residential and commercial properties at different rates (using alternative descriptions of how this would be done)
9% No opin
47% Approve
11% No opin
44% Disapprove
28% Disapprove
61% Approve
Tax commercial property at a higher rate than residential property
Tax residential property at a lower rate than commercial property
Note: Each question asked of a split sample of either 502 or 550 registered voters statewide.
The Field Poll
IGS
7 7
Table 7a
Trend of California’s perceptions of the level of state and local taxes (1977 – 2008)
80
78% 70% 70%
76% 61% 55%
70
60 50 40
59%
Much too / somewhat high 69% 64% 62% 62% 61% 59% 57% 56%
42% 38% 28% 20% 22% 36%
30
20 27% 10
42% 34% 30%
36% 36%
40% 39% 37%
About right / low
1977
1980
1982
1983
1986
1990
1991
1993
1995
1998
2001
2002
2004
2007
2008
Source: The Field Poll. Note: 1977-1998 measures conducted among all California adults, while 2001-2008 measures conducted among registered voters.
The Field Poll
IGS
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Table 7b
Californians’ perception of the level of state and local taxes - 2008 by subgroup
% much too / somewhat high
Statewide Party registration
Democrat Republican
40%
31%
61%
30% 41% 29%
25%
55%
32% 25%
54%
73%
Non-partisan/other
Household income
Less than $20,000 $20,000 - $39,999
$40,000 - $79,999 $80,000 or more
The Field Poll
40% 36% 32% 30%
27% 25% 29% 27%
67% 61%
61%
57%
IGS
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Table 8
Which specific state or local tax is too high? (volunteered replies)
(1977 - 2008)
1977 1980 1991 1998 2008
Gasoline tax Property tax
State income tax Sales tax Tobacco tax Vehicle registration tax
10% 60
20 17 1 NC
26% 23
42 29 8 NC
12% 22
26 52 3 NC
30% 22
30 32 11 NC
32% 29
27 22 9 9
Alcohol tax Business/corporation tax Other tax None/no answer
Columns add to more than 100% due to multiple mentions. NC: Not coded separately with answers included in “other tax” category.
10 NC 13 11
8 NC 13 22
3 NC 15 12
9 NC 15 26
7 6 4 28
The Field Poll
IGS
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Table 9
Should state and local government provide more or fewer services to the public (with and without mention of its impact on taxes)
9% No opin 61% More services
16% No opin
30% Fewer services
44% More services
40% Fewer services
No mention of impact on taxes
More services… “even if it means raising your taxes and fees”
Fewer services… “if this means that your taxes and fees will be kept at or below current levels”
IGS
Note: Each question asked of a split sample of 502 or 550 registered voters statewide.
The Field Poll
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Table 10
Should the state’s current budget deficit be dealt with mostly through spending cuts or mostly through tax increases?
% “mostly spending cuts”
Total 11% No opin 26% Mostly tax increases 63% Mostly spending cuts
63%
Party registration Democrats
49%
Republicans
80%
Non-partisans/others
64%
Note: Asked of a split sample of 502 registered voters statewide.
The Field Poll
IGS
12 12
Table 11
Agree/Disagree: “...the state can provide roughly the same level of services that it currently does, even if its budget has to be cut by $14-20 billion”
% agree strongly somewhat
Disagree strongly
12% 17% Disagree somewhat 33% Agree strongly No opinion 5%
Total Party registration
Democrat Republican
33
33
66%
26 46 26
33
59%
31 37
63%
77%
Non-partisan/other 33% Agree somewhat
Household income
Less than $20,000 $20,000 - $40,000
$40,000 - $80,000 More than $80,000
12 28 34 39
39 38 34
51% 66%
68%
71%
IGS
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The Field Poll
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Table 12
In the end, will the state resolve its current budget deficit with or without an increase in taxes?
% “with tax increase”
No opinion
14% Without tax increase 5%
Total
81%
Party registration Democrats
80%
81% With tax increase
Republicans
80%
Non-partisans/others
82%
Note: Question asked of a split sample of 502 registered voters statewide.
The Field Poll
IGS
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Table 13
Areas of state spending voters are most willing to cut and most willing to protect from budget cutbacks
Prisons and corrections
Public assistance programs Higher education
47% 23% 8% 5% 4% 13%
8% 6% 14% 37% 25% 10%
The public schools
Health care programs None/no opinion
Areas to cut spending to avoid a tax increase
Responses to this question were limited only to these five areas of state spending. Note: Question asked of a split sample of 502 or 550 registered voters statewide.
Areas that shouldn’t be cut even if it means a tax increase
IGS
The Field Poll
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Table 14
Willingness to increase state income taxes by 1% to avoid serious cutbacks in services
% willing
No opinion 8%
Total
42%
Party registration
Democrats
42% Willing 50% Not willing Republicans Non-partisans/others
54% 23% 46%
Household income
Less than $40,000
39% 43% 45%
16 16
$40,000 - $80,000 More than $80,000
Note: Asked of a split sample of 550 registered voters statewide.
The Field Poll
IGS
Table 15
Willingness to accept larger K-12 class sizes if this meant taxes could be kept at about current levels
% willing No opinion
3% Party registration Democrat 37% Willing 60% Not willing Total
37%
30% 49% 32%
Republican
Non-partisan/other Family member attends school Yes No
30% 44%
17 17
Note: Question asked of a split sample of 550 registered voters statewide.
The Field Poll
IGS
Table 16
Willingness to pay an additional ($100) ($200) per year in taxes if this meant average K-12 school class sizes would be reduced
2% No opinion
4% No opinion
33% Not willing
65% Willing
42% Not willing
54% Willing
Additional $100
Additional $200
Note: Each question asked of a split sample of 502 or 550 registered voters statewide.
The Field Poll
IGS
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Table 17
Willingness to allow early release of up to 50,000 non-violent prisoners from state prisons if this kept your taxes from going up by ($100) ($200) per year
No opinion 5%
5% No opinion
39% Not willing
56% Willing
33% Not willing
62% Willing
To avoid $100 increase
To avoid $200 increase
Note: Each question asked of a split sample of 502 or 550 registered voters statewide.
The Field Poll
IGS
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Table 18
Willingness to pay an additional ($100) ($200) per year in taxes if this meant NOT releasing up to 50,000 non-violent prisoners from state prisons
No opinion 4%
No opinion
5%
42% Willing 54% Not willing 63% Not willing
32% Willing
Additional $100
Additional $200
Note: Each question asked of a split sample of 502 or 550 registered voters statewide.
The Field Poll
IGS
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