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					                                                                              MORGAN            STANLEY              RESEARCH
                                                                              NORTH         AMERICA


                                                                              Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated   Vincent Andrews
                                                                                                                  Vincent.Andrews@morganstanley.com
                                                                                                                  +1 (1)212 761 3293

                                                                                                                  Megan Davis
                                                                                                                  Megan.Davis@morganstanley.com
                                                                                                                  +1 (1)212 761 0031

                                                                                                                  Gregory A Van Winkle
                March 15, 2010                                                                                    Gregory.Van.Winkle@morganstanley.com
                                                                                                                  +1 (1)212 761 4968


Industry View   Agricultural Chemicals
Attractive
                Weekly Farmer, Fertilizer, &
                                                                              Recent Reports
                Ag Processor Data Points                                      Title                                                                Date
                                                                              Ag Products / Fertilizer: Quick Comment:                     Mar 2, 2010
                                                                              Potential Russian Export Tax Would Likely Be
                Investment conclusion: We continue to prefer Ag               Favo
                input providers (MOS, POT, MON) relative to Ag output         Vincent Andrews / Megan Davis
                processors (ADM, BG, CPO) due to greater business             Intrepid Potash: Demand Recovery                             Mar 1, 2010
                                                                              Continues
                model visibility and operating leverage potential. While      Vincent Andrews / Megan Davis
                the sector may be in more of a “lull” than a “dip” at         Monsanto Company: Reducing Estimates                       Feb 25, 2010
                present, we believe these companies are increasingly          Vincent Andrews / Megan Davis
                                                                              Agricultural Products: Highlights from MS                  Feb 25, 2010
                attractively valued relative to the earnings power            Materials/Ag Conference
                provided by ~$4 corn.                                         Vincent Andrews / Megan Davis
                                                                              Agriculture: USDA Estimates In-Line; Our                   Feb 22, 2010
                                                                              Outlook Remains Unchanged
                Fertilizer Market Activity: BPC settled its potash            Vincent Andrews / Megan Davis / Hussein
                contract with IPL last Friday. The contract calls for 900K    Allidina, CFA
                mt of potash at $370/mt CFR for delivery from April 2010      Ag Products / Fertilizer: Quick Comment:                   Feb 18, 2010
                                                                              Changes to Indian Fertilizer Subsidy Policy
                -March 2011 (the same price that Canpotex settled with        In-Li
                the other buying consortium for 2Q10 delivery back in         Vincent Andrews / Megan Davis

                February). Assuming that 135K mt of the volume was            Ag Products / Fertilizer: Quick Comment:                   Feb 17, 2010
                                                                              Seasonal Inventory Trends Returning
                BPC making good on the optional tonnes from the 2009          Vincent Andrews / Megan Davis
                contract that IPL didn’t accept once the price moved          Agricultural Products: February WASDE                        Feb 9, 2010
                                                                              Bullish Corn & Soybeans
                lower, volume was relatively in-line with the 2008            Vincent Andrews / Megan Davis
                contract (750K mt). PhosAgro signed a 3 year contract         Ag Products / Potash: Quick Comment:                         Feb 8, 2010
                with IPL to deliver ~20% of the DAP that India imports        Canpotex Sells to China
                                                                              Vincent Andrews / Megan Davis
                each year, based on a price formula. India announced
                                                                              Ag Products / Fertilizer: Updating Phosphate                 Feb 7, 2010
                its fertilizer subsidy payments on March 11 and it is         Replacement Cost Analysis
                reported that the payments will be allocated based on         Vincent Andrews / Megan Davis

                the following prices: $370/mt CFR MOP, $500/mt CFR
                DAP, and $310/mt CFR urea. DAP prices from Russia
                have softened slightly this week, and it is speculated that
                India could reduce its DAP imports this year by almost
                1.5M mt and instead import more NPK compounds.

                Soy crush margins declining to more normalized
                levels as South American harvest picks up. With the
                South American harvest in full swing, soybean crush
                margins have fallen precipitously (30-40%) over the past
                few weeks (largely driven by lower soybean meal               Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with
                values) and are now sitting at more normal levels.            companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As
                                                                              a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
                US Corn Farmer Economics: At Dec-10 corn prices of            have a conflict of interest that could affect the
                $4.03/bu, farmer profits in 2010/2011 are materially          objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors
                                                                              should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a
                higher than in 2009/2010 as corn prices are higher and        single factor in making their investment decision.
                fertilizer prices have stepped down ~$100/acre
                                                                              For analyst certification and other important
                year-over-year. See Exhibits 7, 8 & 9.                        disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section,
                                                                              located at the end of this report.
                                                                                        MORGAN        STANLEY       RESEARCH

                                                                                        March 15, 2010
                                                                                        Agricultural Chemicals




Investment Case
Exhibit 1
Commodity Snapshot
                                                                                                                 MS Forecast
                                                         Current Price                Dec-10         Dec-11           2010   2011
                        Corn                                        $3.57              $3.94          $4.10          $3.90 $4.75
                        Corn gluten feed                         $108.00
                        Corn gluten meal                         $620.00
                        Corn oil                                  $38.50
                        Net corn                                    $1.44

                        Soybeans                                       $9.33            $9.14         $9.33          $9.00 $11.00
                        Soybean meal                                 $250.60          $244.00       $252.50
                        Soybean oil                                    $0.40            $0.41         $0.41
                        Soy crush margin                               $0.56            $0.71         $0.74
                        Soybeans (Real)                              R$ 0.00
                        Wheat                                          $4.70            $5.40          $6.21         $5.50   $6.50
                        Cotton                                         $0.79            $0.76          $0.78         $0.64   $0.72
                        Sugar                                          $0.00                                         $0.23   $0.16

                        Ethanol                                         $1.60           $1.67         $1.69
                        RBOB                                            $2.27           $2.10         $2.15
                        Crude                                          $82.79          $83.64        $85.20
                        Natural gas                                     $4.43           $5.54         $6.16          $6.50   $8.00
                        US diesel                                       $2.92
                        Brazilian diesel                                $2.88

                        Lean hogs                                      $72.13          $67.93                       $69.00 $72.00
                        Live cattle                                    $94.20          $94.65                       $95.00 $99.00

                        USD/EUR                                            1.38                                       1.31    1.31
                        USD/BRL                                            1.76                                       1.75    1.78
                        USD/CAD                                            1.02                                       1.07    1.05
Source: Bloomberg, CBOT, Morgan Stanley Commodity Research, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                     2
                                                                       MORGAN         STANLEY     RESEARCH

                                                                       March 15, 2010
                                                                       Agricultural Chemicals




Exhibit 2
USDA corn balance sheet (post March 9th WASDE)
                                                              2008/2009        2009/2010
                                                                     Oct      Feb March Change
                                        Area planted                86.0     86.5   86.5    0.0
                                        Area harvested              78.6     79.6   79.6    0.0
                                        Yield                      153.9    165.2 164.9    -0.3
                                        Production               12,101    13,151 13,131    -20
                                        Imports                       14       10     10      0
                                        Total supply + stocks    13,739    14,834 14,814    -20
                                          Feed consumption         5,254    5,550 5,550       0
                                          Food, seed, other        1,276    1,265 1,265       0
                                          Ethanol for fuel         3,677    4,300 4,300       0
                                        Total domestic           10,207    11,115 11,115      0
                                          Exports                  1,858    2,000 1,900   -100
                                        Total demand             12,065    13,115 13,015  -100
                                        Beginning stocks           1,624    1,674 1,674       0
                                        Ending stocks              1,674    1,719 1,799      80
                                        Stocks-to-use             13.9%    13.1% 13.8% 0.7%
Source: USDA, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 3
USDA soybean balance sheet (post March 9th WASDE)
                                                              2008/2009        2009/2010
                                                                     Oct      Feb March Change
                                        Area planted                75.7     77.5    77.5  0.0
                                        Area harvested              74.7     76.4   76.4   0.0
                                        Yield                       39.7     44.0    44.0  0.0
                                        Production                2,967     3,361 3,359      -2
                                        Imports                       13        8      15     7
                                        Total supply + stocks     3,185     3,507 3,512       5
                                          Crush consumption       1,662     1,720 1,730      10
                                          Other domestic             101      177    172     -5
                                        Total domestic            1,763     1,897 1,902       5
                                          Exports                 1,283     1,400 1,420      20
                                        Total demand              3,047     3,297 3,322      25
                                        Beginning stocks             205      138    138      0
                                        Ending stocks                138      210    190    -20
                                        Stocks-to-use              4.5%     6.4% 5.7% -0.6%
Source: USDA, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 4
USDA wheat balance sheet (post March 9th WASDE)
                                                              2008/2009     2009/2010
                                                                     Oct   Feb March Change
                                        Area planted                63.2  59.1   59.1   0.0
                                        Area harvested              55.7  49.9   49.9   0.0
                                        Yield                       44.9  44.4   44.4   0.0
                                        Production                 2,499 2,216 2,216       0
                                        Imports                      127   115    115      0
                                        Total supply + stocks      2,932 2,988 2,988       0
                                        Food consumption             927   940    920   -20
                                        Feed and residual            258   170    170      0
                                        Seed                          75    72     72      0
                                        Total domestic             1,260 1,182 1,162     -20
                                        Exports                    1,015   825    825      0
                                        Total demand               2,275 2,007 1,987    -20
                                        Beginning stocks             306   657    657      0
                                        Ending stocks                657   981 1,001      20
                                        Stocks-to-use             28.9% 48.9% 50.4% 1.5%
Source: USDA, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                             3
                                                                                            MORGAN            STANLEY       RESEARCH

                                                                                            March 15, 2010
                                                                                            Agricultural Chemicals




Exhibit 5
Morgan Stanley Real GDP
                                   Morgan Stanley Estimates

REAL GDP (%)                     2009             2010E              2011E

Global Economy                      -1.0%              4.4%             4.0%
Industrial World                    -3.4%              2.2%             2.1%
Developing World                     1.8%              7.0%             6.1%

US                                  -2.4%              3.2%             2.9%

Europe                              -4.0%              0.9%             1.1%
UK                                  -5.0%              1.0%             1.2%

Emerging Markets                     1.8%              7.0%             6.1%
CEEMEA                              -5.6%              3.8%             3.0%

Japan                               -5.0%             1.8%              1.6%
Asia ex-Japan                        5.8%             8.9%              7.8%
China                                8.7%            11.0%              9.0%

Latin America                       -2.6%              4.4%             3.8%
Source: Morgan Stanley Economics Research, Morgan Stanley Research



Exhibit 6
Comparative Valuation and Morgan Stanley estimates
   Ticker           Company name             Share price    Market cap          ModelWare EPS            Dividends per     P/E          EV/EBITDA      P/B       P/TB
                                                              (MM)                                           share
                                             (last close)                      2009     2010     2011     2009   2010    2009    2010   2009   2010    2009    2009    2010
ADM.N         Archer Daniels Midland              $28.66         $19,880       2.37    3.10 e   3.05 e     0.59 0.58 e   12.1     9.2    6.7   6.0 e    1.3     1.4    1.4 e
BG.N          Bunge Ltd.                          $60.84             $8,385   1.65 e   5.25 e   5.50 e 0.84 e 0.84 e     36.8    11.6 39.0 e   6.1 e   0.9 e   0.9 e   1.0 e
CPO.N         Corn Products International         $34.49             $2,490    2.01    2.40 e   2.60 e     0.56 0.62 e   17.2    14.4    6.0   6.4 e    1.2     1.4    1.6 e
IPI.N         Intrepid Potash                     $31.54             $2,128    0.76    1.00 e   1.60 e     0.00 0.00 e   41.2    31.7   18.3 13.1 e     3.1     3.1    2.7 e
MON.N         Monsanto Company                    $72.35         $39,889       4.41    3.30 e   4.50 e     1.04 1.13 e   16.4    21.9   11.3 11.9 e     4.6     8.5    6.5 e
MOS.N         Mosaic Company                      $63.80         $26,735       3.61    2.25 e   3.95 e     0.20 0.20 e   17.7    28.3    8.1 12.9 e     2.9     3.6    3.5 e
POT.N         Potash Corp                       $125.27          $35,807       3.25    4.85 e   6.15 e     0.40 0.40 e   38.5    25.9   22.9 14.8 e     5.1     5.2    4.6 e
Source: Modelware, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                         4
                                                                                              MORGAN                  STANLEY                 RESEARCH

                                                                                              March 15, 2010
                                                                                              Agricultural Chemicals




                                                                                              Exhibit 9
US Farmer Economics                                                                           US Corn Farmer PBT/Bushel Before Subsidies
Exhibit 7                                                                                        $2.00
US Corn Farmer P&L                                                                               $1.50
Per acre                              06/07       07/08      08/09      09/10      10/11         $1.00
Revenue
 Primary product: Corn grain          $453       $699        $572       $638       $600          $0.50
 Secondary product: Corn sila           $1         $1          $1         $1         $1          $0.00
Total Revenue                         $455       $701        $574       $639       $601
                                                                                                 ($0.50)
Operating costs
 Seed                                  $44        $49         $62        $66        $67          ($1.00)
 Fertilizer                            $80       $102        $140       $151        $89          ($1.50)
 Chemicals                             $24        $24         $26        $26        $25




                                                                                                           96

                                                                                                                 97

                                                                                                                       98

                                                                                                                             99

                                                                                                                                   00

                                                                                                                                         01

                                                                                                                                               02

                                                                                                                                                     03

                                                                                                                                                           04

                                                                                                                                                                   6

                                                                                                                                                                          7

                                                                                                                                                                                 8

                                                                                                                                                                                        9

                                                                                                                                                                                               0

                                                                                                                                                                                                      1
 Custom operations                     $11        $11         $12        $12        $12




                                                                                                                                                                 /0

                                                                                                                                                                        /0

                                                                                                                                                                               /0

                                                                                                                                                                                      /0

                                                                                                                                                                                             /1

                                                                                                                                                                                                    /1
                                                                                                      19

                                                                                                                19

                                                                                                                      19

                                                                                                                            19

                                                                                                                                  20

                                                                                                                                        20

                                                                                                                                              20

                                                                                                                                                    20

                                                                                                                                                          20

                                                                                                                                                                05

                                                                                                                                                                       06

                                                                                                                                                                              07

                                                                                                                                                                                     08

                                                                                                                                                                                            09

                                                                                                                                                                                                   10
 Fuel, lube, and electricity           $29        $32         $43        $34        $36
 Repairs                               $14        $15         $15        $16        $16
 Purchased irrigation water             $0         $0          $0         $0         $0       Source: USDA, CBOT, Morgan Stanley Commodities Research, Morgan Stanley Research
 Interest on operating capital          $5         $5          $2         $1         $3
 Labor                                 $26        $27         $27        $29        $29       Exhibit 10
   Total Operating Costs              $232       $264        $328       $335       $277
                                                                                              Fertilizer Costs
Overhead
 Capital recovery of equipmen          $67        $70         $75        $79        $81       Average ton per acre unless specified
 Opportunity cost of land (rent        $91        $97        $105       $110       $113
 Taxes and insurance                    $7         $8          $8         $7         $7                                                       06/07       07/08        08/09          09/10             10/11
 General farm overhead                 $13        $14         $14        $15        $15       Ammonia                                         $320        $331         $590           $251              $420
   Total Overhead                     $178       $189        $203       $211       $216
                                                                                              Urea                                            $228        $347         $494           $276              $316
Total Costs                           $410       $453        $530       $546       $494       DAP                                             $230        $394         $840           $287              $428
Net profit (before subsidies)           $45      $247         $43        $93       $108       Potash                                          $168        $206         $562           $622              $371
Yield (bushels per acre)              149.1       151.1     153.9      165.2      160.4
                                                                                              NPK / Acre                                       $48         $73         $141            $88               $89
Note: 2007 – 2009 operating costs and overheard is based on the USDA’s projection of
                                                                                              NPK / Bushel                                    $0.35       $0.48        $0.93          $0.57             $0.57
commodity costs and returns. 2010 assumes USDA commodity costs except for fertilizer,
which uses current wholesale prices and standard application rates for nitrogen, phosphate,   Corn / Acre                                     $420 $700 $566 $623 $626
and potash. 2007 – 2008 corn prices are the average CBOT price adjusted for basis. 2009 –     Corn / Bushel                                   $3.04 $4.63 $3.72 $4.06 $3.94
2010 use December futures prices less a $0.20 average basis.
Source: USDA, Morgan Stanley Commodities Research, Morgan Stanley Research
                                                                                              Corn - Fertizer (Acre)                          $372 $626 $425 $535 $538
Exhibit 8                                                                                     Corn - Fertizer (Bu)                            $2.69 $4.15 $2.79 $3.49 $3.37
US Corn Farmer Return Over Operating costs                                                    Note: Prices are US corn belt. Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research


   $500

   $450

   $400

   $350

   $300

   $250

   $200

   $150

   $100

    $50

      $0
           96

           97

           98

           99

           00

           01

           02

           03

           04

            6

            7

            8

            9

            0

            1
          /0

          /0

          /0

          /0

          /1

          /1
        19

        19

        19

        19

        20

        20

        20

        20

        20

       05

       06

       07

       08

       09

       10




Source: USDA, Bloomberg, CBOT, Company data, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                           5
                                                                                                               MORGAN                STANLEY                   RESEARCH

                                                                                                               March 15, 2010
                                                                                                               Agricultural Chemicals




Fertilizer Prices and Margins

Exhibit 11                                                                                                     Exhibit 13
Fertilizer Application Rates                                                                                   Global Application Rates Well Below Scientifically
                                                                                                               Recommended Rates
% Change in Application Rate, Y/Y
                                                                                                                  120                        112
     30%

     20%
                                                                                                                    80                                                                                66
     10%                                                                                                                             60                                      59
                        0%

  -10%                                                                                                              40                                                24
                                                                                                                                                                                              17
  -20%

  -30%                                                                                                                0
  -40%                                                                                                                              Nitrogen                    Phosphate                     Potash
                               1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
                                                                                                                         Current Application Rates (lb/acre)           Scientifically Reconmmended Rate (lb/acre)
                                                      Nitrogen       Phosphate            Potash

Source: USDA, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                          Source: IFA Fertilizer Use Manual, IPNI studies, Ohio State University Studies, Morgan
                                                                                                               Stanley Research


Exhibit 12                                                                                                     Exhibit 14
Historical US Nutrient Consumption                                                                             Fertilizer Application Rates Have Been Fairly
                                                                                                               Constant Over the Past 10 Years, But Larger Crops
                            14,000
                                                                                                               are Removing More Nutrients from the Soil
                            12,000
                                                                                                                  90.0                                                                                       170.0
                            10,000                                                                                80.0                                                                                       165.0
   thousand nutrient tons




                                                                                                                  70.0                                                                                       160.0
                             8,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                             155.0
                                                                                                                  60.0
                             6,000                                                                                                                                                                           150.0
                                                                                                                  50.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                             145.0
                             4,000                                                                                40.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                             140.0
                                                                            1983 Decline in                       30.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                             135.0
                             2,000                                          Acres
                                                                                                                  20.0                                                                                       130.0
                                0                                                                                 10.0                                                                                       125.0
                                 1960   1965   1970   1975    1980   1985        1990     1995   2000   2005       0.0                                                                                       120.0
                                                         Nitrogen    Phosphate          Potash                             2000    2001     2002    2003       2004   2005   2006    2007    2008    2009

                                                                                                                            Potash Application Rate             Phosphate Application Rate           Corn Yield

Source: USDA, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                          Source: USDA, Morgan Stanley Research

                                                                                                               Exhibit 15
                                                                                                               Average Fertilizer Price Paid
                                                                                                                                 DAP         Ammonia Potash (K2O) UAN (28%)                                   Urea
                                                                                                                2007            $442           $523          $280     $276                                   $453
                                                                                                                2008            $850           $755          $561     $376                                   $552
                                                                                                                2009            $638           $680          $853     $357                                   $486
                                                                                                               Note: 2007 – 2008 data was collected in April and 2009 data was collected in March.
                                                                                                               Source: USDA, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                     6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  MORGAN                                 STANLEY                                           RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  March 15, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Agricultural Chemicals




Exhibit 16                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Exhibit 19
Ammonia (per ton)                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Natural Gas (mmBtu)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   $16.00
   $1,000
    $900                                                                                                                                                                                                                           $14.00

    $800                                                                                                                                                                                                                           $12.00
    $700
    $600                                                                                                                                                                                                                           $10.00

    $500                                                                                                                                                                                                                            $8.00
    $400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    $6.00
    $300
    $200                                                                                                                                                                                                                            $4.00
    $100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    $2.00
       $0
                                     Apr-07


                                                                   Oct-07
                       Jan-07


                                                 Jul-07




                                                                                               Apr-08


                                                                                                                              Oct-08
                                                                                                                 Jul-08




                                                                                                                                                              Apr-09


                                                                                                                                                                                               Oct-09
                                                                                 Jan-08




                                                                                                                                                Jan-09


                                                                                                                                                                             Jul-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    $0.00




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     May-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      May-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jul-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Sep-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sep-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Sep-09
Source: Green Markets, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                                                                                                                                    Source: Bloomberg, NYMEX, Morgan Stanley Research
Exhibit 17                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Exhibit 20

Urea (per ton)                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ammonia Cash Gross Margins (per ton)

   $900
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    $700
   $800                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $600
   $700                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $500
   $600                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $400
   $500                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $300

   $400                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    $100
   $300
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      $0
   $200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ($100)
   $100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ($200)
     $0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          J                F            M            A                 M             J     J                      A            S            O              N            D
                            May-07




                                                                                           May-08




                                                                                                                                                              May-09
                   Mar-07




                                                          Nov-07


                                                                                 Mar-08




                                                                                                                             Nov-08


                                                                                                                                                   Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Mar-10
          Jan-07




                                       Jul-07
                                                Sep-07


                                                                       Jan-08




                                                                                                     Jul-08
                                                                                                                   Sep-08


                                                                                                                                       Jan-09




                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-09
                                                                                                                                                                                    Sep-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2007                    2008                    2009                      2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Source: Bloomberg, NYMEX, Green Markets, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Green Markets, Morgan Stanley Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Exhibit 21
Exhibit 18                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Urea Gross Margin (per ton)
UAN (per ton)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     $600
   $600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     $500
   $500                                                                                                                                                                                                                              $400

   $400                                                                                                                                                                                                                              $300

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     $200
   $300

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     $100
   $200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       $0
   $100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ($100)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     J            F            M                 A            M             J               J            A            S             O             N            D
     $0
                            May-07




                                                                                            May-08




                                                                                                                                                                May-09
                   Mar-07




                                                          Nov-07


                                                                                  Mar-08




                                                                                                                              Nov-08


                                                                                                                                                     Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Nov-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Mar-10
          Jan-07




                                                                        Jan-08




                                                                                                                                         Jan-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jan-10
                                       Jul-07
                                                Sep-07




                                                                                                        Jul-08
                                                                                                                    Sep-08




                                                                                                                                                                           Jul-09
                                                                                                                                                                                      Sep-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2007                       2008                2009                  2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Source: Bloomberg, NYMEX, Green Markets, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Green Markets, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 7
                                                                                                                                                                                         MORGAN                        STANLEY          RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                                         March 15, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                         Agricultural Chemicals




Exhibit 22                                                                                                                                                                               Exhibit 25
DAP (per ton)                                                                                                                                                                            DAP Cash Gross Margins (per ton)

   $600                                                                                                                                                                                   $700
   $550
                                                                                                                                                                                          $600
   $500
                                                                                                                                                                                          $500
   $450
   $400                                                                                                                                                                                   $400

   $350                                                                                                                                                                                   $300
   $300                                                                                                                                                                                   $200
   $250
                                                                                                                                                                                          $100
   $200
                                                                                                                                           Nov-09
                                                                     May-09




                                                                                                                                                         Dec-09
                                         Mar-09
                                                       Apr-09




                                                                                             Jul-09




                                                                                                                             Oct-09
                  Jan-09




                                                                                  Jun-09




                                                                                                                                                                     Jan-10
                             Feb-09




                                                                                                                                                                                Feb-10
                                                                                                       Aug-09
                                                                                                                 Sep-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                $0
                                                                                                                                                                                                             J     F   M     A     M     J      J    A     S    O     N    D

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2007    2008       2009    2010

                                                                                                                                                                                         Source: Bloomberg, NYMEX, Green Markets, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: Green Markets, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 23                                                                                                                                                                               Exhibit 26

Phosphate Rock (per ton)                                                                                                                                                                 Potash (per ton)

  500                                                                                                                                                                                                       $900
  450                                                                                                                                                                                                       $800
  400
                                                                                                                                                                                                            $700
  350
  300                                                                                                                                                                                                       $600
                                                                                                                                                                                            US$ per tonne




  250
                                                                                                                                                                                                            $500
  200
  150                                                                                                                                                                                                       $400
  100
                                                                                                                                                                                                            $300
   50
    0                                                                                                                                                                                                       $200
                           May-07




                                                            Nov-07




                                                                                              May-08




                                                                                                                          Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                            May-09
         Jan-07
                  Mar-07



                                      Jul-07

                                                  Sep-07



                                                                         Jan-08
                                                                                    Mar-08



                                                                                                       Jul-08

                                                                                                                Sep-08



                                                                                                                                      Jan-09
                                                                                                                                                Mar-09



                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-09

                                                                                                                                                                                Sep-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                            $100

                                                                                                                                                                                                             $0
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-
Source: Green Markets, Morgan Stanley Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10

Exhibit 24
                                                                                                                                                                                         Source: Green Markets, Morgan Stanley Research
Sulfur (per long ton)
  $700

  $600

  $500

  $400

  $300

  $200

  $100

    $0
    M 6
    J- 6




    M 7
    J- 7




    M 8
    J- 8




    M 9
    J- 9
    M 6



    S- 6
    N 6

    M 7



    S- 7
    N 7

    M 8




      10
    S- 8
    N 8

    M 9



    S- 9
    N 9
    J- 6




    J- 7




    J- 8




    J- 9
     -0
     -0




     -0
     -0




     -0
     -0




     -0
     -0
      0



      0
      0
     -0
      0



      0
      0
     -0
      0



      0
      0
     -0
      0



      0
      0
     -0
    J-




Note: Adjusted for contract prices.
Source: Green Markets, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  8
                                                                                                        MORGAN              STANLEY               RESEARCH

                                                                                                        March 15, 2010
                                                                                                        Agricultural Chemicals




Exhibit 27                                                                                              Exhibit 30
Brazil Retail Fertilizer Consumption                                                                    Change in Brazilian Fertilizer Inventories
                                                                                                                                                     Nov-09
  3,500,000
                                                                                                        Production                                  714,107
  3,000,000
                                                                                                        Imports                                     920,760
  2,500,000
                                                                                                        Supply                                    1,634,867
  2,000,000

  1,500,000                                                                                             Consumption                               2,173,906
  1,000,000                                                                                             Demand                                    2,173,906
     500,000

              0
                                                                                                        Change in Inventories                      -539,039
                      J       F     M       A      M      J      J      A      S      O      N      D

                                            2006         2007         2008         2009

Source: ANDA, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 28                                                                                              Source: ANDA, Morgan Stanley Research
Brazilian Fertilizer Consumption
                                                                                                        Exhibit 31
            30,000,000                                                                                  China DAP & MAP Exports
                                                                                                                                                    2007      2008     2009

                                                                                                                600,000
            25,000,000

                                                                                                                500,000
   Tonnes




            20,000,000
                                                                                                                400,000
                                                                                                           MT




            15,000,000                                                                                          300,000


                                                                                                                200,000

            10,000,000
                                                                                                                100,000
                            98

                                    99

                                           00

                                                  01

                                                         02

                                                                03

                                                                       04

                                                                              05

                                                                                     06

                                                                                            07

                                                                                                   08
                          19

                                  19

                                         20

                                                20

                                                       20

                                                              20

                                                                     20

                                                                            20

                                                                                   20

                                                                                          20

                                                                                                 20




                                                                                                                     0
Source: ANDA, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                                     Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun      Jul    Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
Exhibit 29
Brazil Fertilizer Imports                                                                               Source: China Customs, Morgan Stanley Research


                                                   2007       2008     2009

   2,500,000


   2,000,000


   1,500,000


   1,000,000


      500,000


                  0
                          J   F      M      A      M      J      J      A      S      O      N      D


Source: ANDA, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                      9
                                                                                                                   MORGAN                                      STANLEY                 RESEARCH

                                                                                                                   March 15, 2010
                                                                                                                   Agricultural Chemicals




Exhibit 32                                                                                                         Exhibit 34
US DAP & MAP Inventory                                                                                             North American Potash Inventory


                                     2,000
                                                                                                                                                 3,000
     Thousand Short Tons DAP + MAP




                                     1,800
                                     1,600                                                                                                       2,500




                                                                                                                       Thousand Short Tons K2O
                                     1,400
                                     1,200                                                                                                       2,000
                                     1,000
                                                                                                                                                 1,500
                                       800
                                       600                                                                                                       1,000
                                       400
                                          200                                                                                                      500

                                            0                                                                                                        0
                                       n 8

                                       n 9

                                       n 0

                                       n 1

                                       n 2

                                       n 3

                                       n 4

                                       n 5

                                       n 6

                                       n 7

                                       n 8

                                       n- 9
                                      Ju -98

                                      Ju -99

                                      Ju -00

                                      Ju -01

                                      Ju -02

                                      Ju -03

                                      Ju -04

                                      Ju -05

                                      Ju -06

                                      Ju -07

                                      Ju -08

                                      Ju -09

                                          10
                                     Ja l-9

                                     Ja l-9

                                     Ja l-0

                                     Ja l-0

                                     Ja l-0

                                     Ja l-0

                                     Ja l-0

                                     Ja l-0

                                     Ja l-0

                                     Ja l-0




                                                                                                                                                    n 8

                                                                                                                                                    n 9
                                     Ja l-0




                                                                                                                                                    n 0
                                     Ja l-0




                                                                                                                                                    n 1

                                                                                                                                                    n 2

                                                                                                                                                    n 3

                                                                                                                                                    n 4

                                                                                                                                                    n 5

                                                                                                                                                    n 6

                                                                                                                                                    n 7

                                                                                                                                                    n 8

                                                                                                                                                    n- 9
                                                                                                                                                  Ju -98

                                                                                                                                                  Ju -99

                                                                                                                                                  Ju -00

                                                                                                                                                  Ju -01

                                                                                                                                                  Ju -02

                                                                                                                                                  Ju -03

                                                                                                                                                  Ju -04

                                                                                                                                                  Ju -05

                                                                                                                                                  Ju -06

                                                                                                                                                  Ju -07

                                                                                                                                                  Ju -08

                                                                                                                                                  Ju -09

                                                                                                                                                        10
                                                                                                                                                 J a l -9

                                                                                                                                                 J a l -9

                                                                                                                                                 J a l-0

                                                                                                                                                 J a l-0

                                                                                                                                                 J a l -0

                                                                                                                                                 J a l-0

                                                                                                                                                 J a l-0

                                                                                                                                                 J a l -0

                                                                                                                                                 J a l -0

                                                                                                                                                 J a l-0

                                                                                                                                                 J a l -0

                                                                                                                                                 J a l -0
                                       n




                                                                                                                                                    n
                                     Ja




                                                                                                                                                 Ja
                                     2,000                                                                                                       4,500
                                     1,800                                                                                                       4,000
                                     1,600                                                                                                       3,500
      Thousand Short Tons




                                                                                                                       Thousand Short Tons



                                     1,400
                                                                                                                                                 3,000
                                     1,200
                                                                                                                                                 2,500
                                     1,000
                                                                                                                                                 2,000
                                      800
                                                                                                                                                 1,500
                                      600
                                                                                                                                                 1,000
                                      400
                                                                                                                                                  500
                                      200
                                           0                                                                                                        0

                                                J    F     M    A     M    J     J   A      S   O      N   D                                               J      F      M       A      M       J      J      A      S     O      N      D

                                                                                                                                                    2004          2005          2006           2007         2008         2009          2010
                                      2004          2005       2006       2007       2008       2009       2010
                                                                                                                   Source: TFI, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: TFI, Morgan Stanley Research

                                                                                                                   Exhibit 35
Exhibit 33
Chinese Potash Imports                                                                                             Global Potash Producer Curtailments
                                                                                                                                                                   Normal Annual               Normal Monthly    Projected                    % of
                                                                                                                                                                  Production (mm               Production (mm Curtailments     Share of Production
                                     10
                                                                                                                   Company                          Country           tonnes KCl) % of Total       tonnes KCl) 2H08 - 2009 Curtailments        Cut
                                     9                                                                             Potash Corp                      Canada                  9.00      16.4%              0.75          8.30       29.0%     92.2%
                                     8                                                                             Mosaic                           Canada / US             8.50      15.5%              0.71          4.00       14.0%     47.1%
                                                                                                                   Belaruskali                      Belarus                 8.00      14.5%              0.67          4.50       15.7%     56.3%
   Million Tonnes MOP




                                     7                                                                             K+S                              Germany                 6.00      10.9%              0.50          2.90       10.1%     48.3%
                                     6                                                                             Silvinit                         Russia                  5.50      10.0%              0.46          2.85       10.0%     51.8%
                                                                                                                   Uralkali                         Russia                  4.00       7.3%              0.33          3.30       11.5%     82.5%
                                     5
                                                                                                                   China                            China                   4.00       7.3%              0.33
                                     4                                                                             ICL                              Israel                  2.50       4.5%              0.21          0.75        2.6%     30.0%
                                     3                                                                             Others                           Intl.                   2.00       3.6%              0.17
                                                                                                                   Arab Potash                      Jordan                  1.70       3.1%              0.14          0.50        1.7%     29.4%
                                     2                                                                             Agrium                           Canada                  1.50       2.7%              0.13          1.20        4.2%     80.0%
                                     1                                                                             Intrepid                         US                      0.80       1.5%              0.07          0.30        1.0%     37.5%
                                                                                                                   SQM                              Chile                   0.75       1.4%              0.06
                                     0
                                                                                                                   Vale                             Brazil                  0.75       1.4%              0.06
                                           1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008   TOTAL                                                   55.00       1.00              4.58        28.60                  52.0%
                                                                                                                   Source: Fertecon, Potash Corp data, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: China Customs, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              10
                                                                                                                                                                          MORGAN                                    STANLEY                                         RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                          March 15, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                          Agricultural Chemicals




Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat
Exhibit 36                                                                                                                                                                Exhibit 39
Corn                                                                                                                                                                      Soybeans
 $8.00                                                                                                                                                                     $18.00


 $7.00                                                                                                                                                                     $16.00

                                                                                                                                                                           $14.00
 $6.00

                                                                                                                                                                           $12.00
 $5.00

                                                                                                                                                                           $10.00
 $4.00
                                                                                                                                                                            $8.00
 $3.00
                                                                                                                                                                            $6.00
 $2.00
                                                                                                                                                                            $4.00
 $1.00
                                                                                                                                                                            $2.00

 $0.00
                                                                                                                                                                            $0.00
                             Nov-07




                                                         May-08




                                                                                     Nov-08




                                                                                                                  May-09




                                                                                                                                               Nov-09
         Jul-07

                    Sep-07




                                      Jan-08

                                                Mar-08




                                                                  Jul-08

                                                                            Sep-08




                                                                                              Jan-09

                                                                                                        Mar-09




                                                                                                                             Jul-09

                                                                                                                                      Sep-09




                                                                                                                                                        Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                 Mar-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Nov-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                May-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              May-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-10
                                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sep-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mar-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Sep-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sep-09
Source: Bloomberg, CBOT, Morgan Stanley Research
                                                                                                                                                                          Source: Bloomberg, CBOT, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 37
                                                                                                                                                                          Exhibit 40
Wet Mill Net Corn Cost
                                                                                                                                                                          Soy Crush Margin
  70%                                                       Net corn costs                                       Coproduct recovery rate
                                                                                                                                    $5.00                                  $2.00

  65%                                                                                                                                                            $4.50     $1.80

  60%                                                                                                                                                                      $1.60
                                                                                                                                                                 $4.00
  55%                                                                                                                                                                      $1.40
  50%                                                                                                                                                            $3.50
                                                                                                                                                                           $1.20
  45%                                                                                                                                                            $3.00
                                                                                                                                                                           $1.00
  40%                                                                                                                                                            $2.50     $0.80
  35%
                                                                                                                                                                 $2.00     $0.60
  30%
  25%                                                                                                                                                            $1.50     $0.40

                                                                                                                                                                           $0.20
  20%                                                                $1.00
                      Jun- A N Feb- M Jul- Oct- Jan-Apr- Jul- S D Mar-                                                                                                     $0.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              May-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             May-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-10
                                                                                                                                                                                   Jul-07

                                                                                                                                                                                               Sep-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sep-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sep-09



                       07 ug- ov- 08 ay- 08 08 09 09 09 ep- ec- 10
                           07 07     08                       09 09

Source: Bloomberg, CBOT, Feestuffs, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                                                               Source: Bloomberg, CBOT, Morgan Stanley Research


Exhibit 38                                                                                                                                                                Exhibit 41
Average Wet Mill Net Corn                                                                                                                                                 Average Soy Crush Margin
                  2002       2003              2004       2005             2006        2007            2008            2009           2010                                             2002                2003                   2004                 2005            2006             2007                2008                2009            2010
Jan               $1.02      $1.11             $1.15 $0.86                 $0.95        $2.48          $2.22               $2.24 $1.66                                    Jan          $0.74               $0.28                  $0.58                $0.34           $0.62            $0.63               $0.65               $0.59           $0.96
                                                                                                                                                                          Feb          $0.65               $0.39                  $0.62                $0.40           $0.61            $0.62               $0.61               $0.64           $0.87
Feb               $0.99      $1.12             $1.24 $0.86                 $1.08        $2.53          $2.29               $1.56 $1.51
                                                                                                                                                                          Mar          $0.66               $0.40                  $0.48                $0.36           $0.63            $0.63               $0.68               $0.65           $0.70
Mar               $1.01      $1.11             $1.51 $0.99                 $1.13        $2.46          $2.45               $2.05 $1.55
                                                                                                                                                                          Apr          $0.67               $0.37                  $0.56                $0.46           $0.70            $0.63               $0.80               $0.71
Apr               $1.02      $1.19             $1.62 $0.90                 $1.25        $2.08          $2.81               $2.26
                                                                                                                                                                          May          $0.66               $0.42                  $0.54                $0.50           $0.72            $0.61               $0.70               $0.90
May               $1.13      $1.25             $1.59 $0.87                 $1.33        $2.25          $2.96               $2.40
                                                                                                                                                                          Jun          $0.66               $0.39                  $0.61                $0.52           $0.77            $0.64               $0.74               $0.85
Jun               $1.20      $1.18             $1.34 $0.97                 $1.22        $2.39          $4.16               $2.08
                                                                                                                                                                          Jul          $0.49               $0.49                  $0.79                $0.60           $0.75            $0.60               $0.79               $0.61
Jul               $1.39      $0.95             $0.99 $1.09                 $1.29        $1.64          $3.50               $1.54
                                                                                                                                                                          Aug          $0.61               $0.49                  $0.68                $0.59           $0.77            $0.59               $0.74               $0.84
Aug               $1.61      $1.02             $0.93 $0.88                 $1.19        $1.64          $3.05               $1.56                                          Sep          $0.55               $0.53                  $0.57                $0.58           $0.79            $0.56               $0.65               $1.08
Sep               $1.65      $1.15             $0.94 $0.80                 $1.31        $1.65          $3.23               $1.49                                          Oct          $0.48               $0.45                  $0.44                $0.59           $0.74            $0.63               $0.62               $0.83
Oct               $1.43      $1.07             $0.91 $0.82                 $1.93        $1.42          $2.18               $1.75                                          Nov          $0.40               $0.54                  $0.36                $0.55           $0.74            $0.63               $0.52               $0.91
Nov               $1.23      $1.14             $0.87 $0.71                 $2.32        $1.48          $1.99               $1.90                                          Dec          $0.36               $0.49                  $0.35                $0.62           $0.62            $0.62               $0.61               $0.95
Dec               $1.15      $1.12             $1.11 $0.80                 $2.36        $1.71          $2.11               $1.89
                                                                                                                                                                          Source: Bloomberg, CBOT, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: Bloomberg, CBOT, Feestuffs, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             11
                                                                                                                                                                                                            MORGAN                 STANLEY            RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                                                            March 15, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Agricultural Chemicals




Exhibit 42                                                                                                                                                                                                  Exhibit 45
Wheat                                                                                                                                                                                                       US Soybean Oil Production (tons)
 $14.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                              1,875,000

 $12.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                              1,750,000

 $10.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                              1,625,000

  $8.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                              1,500,000
  $6.00

                                                                                                                                                                                                              1,375,000
  $4.00

                                                                                                                                                                                                              1,250,000
  $2.00

                                                                                                                                                                                                              1,125,000
  $0.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                        J    F    M     A      M       J       J     A    S      O   N   D
                                                                                                         Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                                             Nov-09
                                      Nov-07




                                                                      May-08




                                                                                                                                                 May-09
                                                                               Jul-08




                                                                                                                          Jan-09

                                                                                                                                       Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                          Jul-09

                                                                                                                                                                    Sep-09




                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-10
                    Jul-07

                             Sep-07




                                                   Jan-08

                                                            Mar-08




                                                                                            Sep-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2008       2007            2006       2009


Source: Bloomberg, CBOT, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                                                                                                            Source: NOPA, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 43                                                                                                                                                                                                  Exhibit 46
US Soybean Crush (1,000 bushels)                                                                                                                                                                            US Soybean Processing Capacity Utilization

                    170,000                                                                                                                                                                                   100%
                    160,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                90%
                    150,000
    1,000 bushels




                    140,000                                                                                                                                                                                     80%
                    130,000
                    120,000                                                                                                                                                                                     70%
                    110,000                                                                                                                                                                                     60%
                    100,000
                     90,000                                                                                                                                                                                     50%
                                                   J            F       M               A            M                J                J         A          S           O             N            D                       J       F    M      A   M      J       J        A     S     O    N   D

                                      2008                           2007                     2006                                     2005                        2004                       2009                        2008          2007       2006           2005           2004       2009

Source: NOPA, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                                                                                                                       Source: NOPA, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 44                                                                                                                                                                                                  Exhibit 47
US Soybean Meal Production (tons)                                                                                                                                                                           Brazil Soybean Crush (1,000 tons)
                                                                                                                                                                                                               3,500
   3,900,000
   3,700,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                               3,000
   3,500,000
   3,300,000
   3,100,000                                                                                                                                                                                                   2,500
   2,900,000
   2,700,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                               2,000
   2,500,000
                                               J            F         M        A             M                    J                J            A         S         O          N               D
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1,500
                                                                      2008                           2007                                       2006                     2009                                                             2005/06             2006/07                2007/08
Source: NOPA, Morgan Stanley Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2008/09             2009/10
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            F       M    A     M      J       J   A         S    O      N   D      J
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Source: NOPA, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            MORGAN                                  STANLEY                                                RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            March 15, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Agricultural Chemicals




Energy
Exhibit 48
Ethanol Gross Crush Margin                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Exhibit 51
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            RBOB – Ethanol Spread
   $4.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              $1.50
   $3.50

   $3.00

   $2.50                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      $1.00

   $2.00

   $1.50                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      $0.50
   $1.00

   $0.50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              $0.00
   $0.00
                  Oct- Feb- Jun- Oct- Feb- Jun- Oct- Feb- Jun- Oct- Feb- Jun- Oct- Feb-
                  05    06 06    06    07 07     07   08 08    08    09 09    09    10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             -$0.50

Source: Bloomberg, CBOT, Feestuffs, Morgan Stanley Research

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             -$1.00
Exhibit 49




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      May-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             May-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     May-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Sep-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jan-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jul-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sep-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Mar-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Sep-08
Ethanol and Wholesale Gasoline (RBOB)
 $4.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Source: Bloomberg, CBOT, Morgan Stanley Research
 $3.50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Exhibit 52
 $3.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Natural Gas
 $2.50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $16.00

 $2.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $14.00

 $1.50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $12.00
 $1.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $10.00
 $0.50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              $8.00
 $0.00
         May-07




                                         Nov-07




                                                                             May-08




                                                                                                                               Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                                                     May-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Nov-09
                    Jul-07

                              Sep-07




                                                    Jan-08

                                                                Mar-08




                                                                                           Jul-08

                                                                                                             Sep-08




                                                                                                                                                 Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jul-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sep-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              $6.00


                                                                                                    Ethanol                             RBOB                                                                                                                  $4.00

Source: Bloomberg, CBOT, Morgan Stanley Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              $2.00

Exhibit 50                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    $0.00
Crude - WTI
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Nov-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Nov-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    May-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            May-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sep-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jul-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sep-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Mar-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sep-07




 $160

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Source: Bloomberg, NYMEX, Morgan Stanley Research
 $140


 $120


 $100


  $80


  $60


  $40


  $20


   $0
                                Nov-07




                                                                                                                      Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Nov-09
                                                                    May-08




                                                                                                                                                                            May-09
         Jul-07

                     Sep-07




                                           Jan-08

                                                       Mar-08




                                                                                  Jul-08

                                                                                                    Sep-08




                                                                                                                                        Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                          Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                              Jul-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sep-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-10




Source: Bloomberg, CBOT, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 MORGAN            STANLEY             RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 March 15, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Agricultural Chemicals




Agribusiness
Exhibit 53                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Exhibit 56
Dry Bulk Ocean Freight                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Rail Deliveries to Port
                        $80,000

                        $70,000

                        $60,000
  USD per Day




                        $50,000

                        $40,000

                        $30,000

                        $20,000

                        $10,000

                                  $0
                                           J                F               M                A                 M                 J                 J                    A                     S                    O                  N                 D

                                                                                                      2007                           2008                               2009                          2010


Source: Morgan Stanley Commodity Shipping Research                                                                                                                                                                                                               Source: Transportation and Marketing Programs, AMS, USDA


Exhibit 54                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Exhibit 57
Grain Rail Movements                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Total Weekly US Class I Railroad Grain Car
 29,000
                                                                                       All Class 1 Originated Grain Carloads
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Loadings
                                                                                             2008                            2009                          2010
 27,000




 25,000




 23,000




 21,000




 19,000




 17,000




 15,000
                                                                                                                                                   7-Aug

                                                                                                                                                               21-Aug
                                                                                     1-May

                                                                                             15-May

                                                                                                      29-May

                                                                                                               12-Jun

                                                                                                                        26-Jun




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             13-Nov

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      27-Nov
                                                   6-Mar

                                                           20-Mar

                                                                    3-Apr

                                                                            17-Apr




                                                                                                                                 10-Jul

                                                                                                                                          24-Jul




                                                                                                                                                                                              2-Oct

                                                                                                                                                                                                          16-Oct

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    30-Oct
                9-Jan

                         23-Jan

                                  6-Feb

                                          20-Feb




                                                                                                                                                                         4-Sep

                                                                                                                                                                                     18-Sep




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               11-Dec

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        25-Dec




Source: Morgan Stanley Transportation Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Source: Association of American Railroads

Exhibit 55
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Exhibit 58
US Grain and Oilseed Exports                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Illinois River Barge Freight Rate
                        4,000,000


                        3,500,000


                        3,000,000
           Tonnes




                        2,500,000


                        2,000,000


                        1,500,000


                        1,000,000
                                                      J              F               M                A                 M                 J                J                     A                    S                O                 N               D

                                                                                     2008                               2009                                       2010                                            5 Year Average
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Source: Transportation and Marketing Programs, AMS, USDA
Source: USDA, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            14
                                                                        MORGAN           STANLEY            RESEARCH

                                                                        March 15, 2010
                                                                        Agricultural Chemicals




Exhibit 59                                                              Exhibit 62
Grain Barges for Export in New Orleans Region                           Top 5 Importers of US Soybeans




Source: US Army Corps of Engineers

Exhibit 60
                                                                        Source: USDA
US Grain Inspected for Export (Corn, Soybeans,
Wheat)                                                                  Exhibit 63
                                                                        Top 10 Importers of US Wheat




Source: Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, USDA

Exhibit 61
Top 5 Importers of US Corn


                                                                        Source: USDA

                                                                        Exhibit 64
                                                                        US Gulf Vessel Loading Activity




Source: USDA




                                                                        Source: Transportation and Marketing Programs, AMS, USDA




                                                                                                                                   15
                                                                             MORGAN        STANLEY    RESEARCH

                                                                             March 15, 2010
                                                                             Agricultural Chemicals




Exhibit 65
Grain Vessel Rates, US to Japan




Source: Drewry Shipping Consultants LRD, O’Neil Commodity Consulting, USDA

Exhibit 66
Ocean Freight Rates for Selected Shipments




Source: Maritime Research Inc., USDA




                                                                                                                 16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        MORGAN                               STANLEY                                RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        March 15, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Agricultural Chemicals




Foreign Exchange
Exhibit 67                                                                                                                                                                                                              Exhibit 69
USD/ Euro                                                                                                                                                                                                               USD / CAD
 $0.85                                                                                                                                                                                                                   $1.35

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         $1.30

 $0.80                                                                                                                                                                                                                   $1.25

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         $1.20
 $0.75
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         $1.15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         $1.10
 $0.70
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         $1.05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         $1.00
 $0.65

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         $0.95


 $0.60                                                                                                                                                                                                                   $0.90



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Nov-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Dec-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           May-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Dec-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Feb-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Mar-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Apr-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jun-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jul-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Aug-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sep-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Oct-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Feb-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar-10
         Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                                         Nov-09
                           Dec-08




                                                                                                   May-09




                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec-09
                                             Jan-09

                                                           Feb-09

                                                                         Mar-09

                                                                                      Apr-09




                                                                                                                Jun-09

                                                                                                                            Jul-09

                                                                                                                                        Aug-09

                                                                                                                                                   Sep-09

                                                                                                                                                              Oct-09




                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Feb-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                               Mar-10




Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                                                                                                                              Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 68                                                                                                                                                                                                              Exhibit 70
USD / BRL                                                                                                                                                                                                               Real-denominated soybeans
 R$ 2.70                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $18.00                                                                                                                                               BRL 30.00

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         $16.00
 R$ 2.50                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      BRL 25.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         $14.00

 R$ 2.30                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $12.00                                                                                                                                               BRL 20.00

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         $10.00
 R$ 2.10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      BRL 15.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          $8.00

 R$ 1.90                                                                                                                                                                                                                  $6.00                                                                                                                                               BRL 10.00

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          $4.00
 R$ 1.70                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      BRL 5.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          $2.00

 R$ 1.50                                                                                                                                                                                                                  $0.00                                                                                                                                           BRL 0.00
                  Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                                          Nov-09
                                                                                                       May-09
                                    Dec-08

                                                  Jan-09

                                                                Feb-09

                                                                             Mar-09

                                                                                          Apr-09




                                                                                                                   Jun-09

                                                                                                                               Jul-09

                                                                                                                                          Aug-09

                                                                                                                                                     Sep-09

                                                                                                                                                                Oct-09




                                                                                                                                                                                    Dec-09

                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Feb-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                               Mar-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jul-07               Nov-07              Apr-08              Aug-08            Jan-09              Jun-09            Oct-09            Mar-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Soybeans in Real                      Soybeans USD

Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research                                                                                                                                                                              Source: Bloomberg, CBOT, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         17
                                                                                MORGAN         STANLEY         RESEARCH

                                                                                March 15, 2010
                                                                                Agricultural Chemicals




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As of February 26, 2010, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in
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Industries, Corn Products International Inc., Monsanto Company, Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc.
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Daniels Midland, Bunge Ltd., CF Industries, Corn Products International Inc., Intrepid Potash, Monsanto Company, Mosaic Company, Potash Corp of
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                                                                                                                                                     18
                                                                                              MORGAN            STANLEY           RESEARCH

                                                                                              March 15, 2010
                                                                                              Agricultural Chemicals




                              Coverage Universe    Investment Banking Clients (IBC)
                                             % of                   % of % of Rating
Stock Rating Category            Count       Total     Count Total IBC Category
Overweight/Buy                   1035           41%            316         42%           31%
Equal-weight/Hold                1091           43%            341         45%           31%
Not-Rated/Hold                       22           1%              5          1%          23%
Underweight/Sell                   382          15%             89         12%           23%
Total                            2,530                         751

Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual
circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan
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                                                                                                                                                                              19
                                                                                             MORGAN           STANLEY            RESEARCH

                                                                                             March 15, 2010
                                                                                             Agricultural Chemicals




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Industry Coverage:Agricultural Chemicals

Company (Ticker)                              Rating (as of) Price* (03/12/2010)


Vincent Andrews
Agrium Inc. (AGU.N)                         NA (02/25/2009)                   $72.1
CF Industries (CF.N)                                     ++                  $96.73
Intrepid Potash (IPI.N)                      E (09/04/2008)                  $31.54
Monsanto Company (MON.N)                     O (05/14/2007)                  $72.35
Mosaic Company (MOS.N)                       O (09/04/2008)                   $63.8
Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc              O (09/04/2008)                 $125.27
(POT.N)

Stock Ratings are subject to change. Please see latest research for each company.
* Historical prices are not split adjusted.




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