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					9th International Conference on                                                  Remarks of the
                                                                                 scientifc committee:
Harmonisation within Atmospheric                                                  accepted
                                                                                 1 2 3 4 5
Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes                                      good           poor 
Garmisch-Partenkirchen  Germany  June 1 – 4, 2004                               poster        lecture
                                                                                 Topic:
                                                                                 Abstract No:

Abstract Submission Form
Details of the submitting author / abstract presenter:
Surname:     Fay           First Name: Barbara        Title: Ms
Address:     German Weather Service, Research and Development, Air Pollution Modelling,
Frankfurter Str. 135, 63067 Offenbach, Germany

Telephone: ++49-69-8062 2748             Fax: ++49-69-8062 3759
e-mail:    barbara.fay@dwd.de

Details of the abstract:
Title of the abstract: EVALUATION AND COMPARISON OF OPERATIONAL NWP AND
MESOSCALE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS FOR FORECASTING URBAN AIR POLLUTION
EPISODES - HELSINKI CASE STUDY
      I prefer                an oral presentation       a poster presentation
Please indicate into which section of the conference your contribution may fit best:
   Validation and inter-comparison of models: Model evaluation methodology
   Regulatory models: country review
   Review of experiences using models when implementing the EU directives
   Short distance dispersion modelling
   Urban scale and street canyon modelling: Meteorology and air quality
   Mesoscale meteorology and air quality modelling
   Environmental impact assessment: Air pollution management and decision support systems

EVALUATION AND COMPARISON OF OPERATIONAL NWP AND MESOSCALE
METEOROLOGICAL MODELS FOR FORECASTING URBAN AIR POLLUTION EPISODES -
HELSINKI CASE STUDY

Fay B(1), Neunhäuserer L(1), Baklanov A(3), Bjergene N(5), Kukkonen J(4), Palau J L(2), Perez-
Landa G(2), Rantamaki M(4), Rasmussen A(3), Valkama I(4)


(1) German Weather Service, Offenbach, Germany
(2) CEAM, Valencia, Spain
(3) Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
(4) Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
(5) Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway


Predicting potentially harmful air pollution episodes is a major challenge in forecasting urban air
pollution. Urban air quality information and forecasting systems (UAQIFSs) were established by
city authorities especially after the implementation of the stricter European Air Quality Directives.
Nested numerical weather prediction models have recently approached city scale resolution, and
UAQIFSs may therefore be improved by using the output of operational weather prediction and
mesocale meteorological models.

This study is part of the European Union FP5 project FUMAPEX (Integrated Systems for
Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure) and the COST 715 action.
Simulations are performed with 4 numerical weather prediction (NWP) models of major European
weather services (the HIRLAM model versions of the Danish, Finnish, and Norwegian
meteorological services, the Lokalmodell of the German Weather Service/COSMO modelling
consortium) and the mesoscale meteorological models MM5 and RAMS. The models are run with
their specific operational data assimilation, numerics, and parameterisation and also as nested
versions with higher resolution down to 1km but without improved parameterisations. An intense
Helsinki wintertime inversion episode in Dec 1995 and springtime dust episodes in March 1998
and April 2002 are investigated.

Meteorological predicting variables with relevance to urban meteorology and air
quality modelling (such as temperature inversion, atmospheric stability, wind speed, surface heat
fluxes) are evaluated against measurements and inter-compared between the models using
various quantitative deterministic tests and statistical model performance measures. Some
improvements (e.g. in thermal inversions and wind speeds) are achieved with higher model
resolution. Remaining deficiencies in model results and the corresponding necessity of modified
parameterisations for application of these models in the urban environment are explained.
Recommendations for the improvement of boundary layer parameterisations and surface
characteristics in meteorological forecast models for UAQIFSs are formulated and set in relation to
the current improvement strategies in FUMAPEX.

				
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