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2005 General Election Results

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2005 General Election Results

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									2005 General Election Results




           Grayling Wales
           2 Caspian Point
            Caspian Way
               Cardiff
             CF10 4DQ

         Tel: 029 2046 2507
         Fax: 029 2046 2585
        Web: www.grayling.com




                  1
                         The 2005 General Election
UK Results

With 632 of the 646 seats now declared, Labour have won their third consecutive term in
government. Tony Blair is expected to go to Buckingham Palace today for the Queen to ask
him to form a government, and a reshuffle is expected imminently. Although Labour have
been returned with an expected 66 seat majority, the results provide a very mixed set of
messages for all three parties.

Results so far:
Labour                  355 seats                  - 47
Conservatives           197 seats                  + 33
Liberal Democrats       62 seats                   +11

Turnout and Share of vote

Overall turnout was up this election at 61.2% up 2% from 2001 with postal voting have a
significant impact on turnout, particularly in the North of England.

Labour                  37%                        - 6%
Conservatives           33%                        unchanged
Liberal Democrats       22%                        + 4%

What does the result mean for the Parties?

Labour
The Labour Party have won a workable majority; but the significant reduction of the
majority from 167 MPs to between 66-70 will have an impact on a range of issues including
the leadership and the composition of the Cabinet and Government to the manner in which
the Government works with the Parliamentary Labour Party.

The good news for Labour is that whilst their majority has been slashed this has been
achieved by tactical voting, rather than a uniform swing to either party indicating that the
population does not sees a real “Government in waiting” elsewhere, making 2009 already
look exciting.

Conservatives
A rise in seats for the Conservatives, but without a significant change in their vote from the
2001 General Election. This is a mixed message for Michael Howard and the Conservative
Party which is likely to result in continued internal debate about the direction of the Party.
Howard will certainly gain credit for the substantial conservative gains, particularly in
symbolic Tory seats like Newbury.

However, given his age it was always unlikely that he would lead the party into the next
General Election. Howard’s announcement to stand down as soon as a new leader is
announced has now set the scene for more internal turmoil within the Conservative Party in
their attempts to find a new electable leader.




                                               2
Liberal Democrats
A good night for the Liberal Democrats in terms of percentage share of the vote but this
hasn’t translated into a significant number of seats. They have benefited from a protest vote,
but their inability to make headway against the Conservatives in Tory-Lib Dem fights
underlines that in this competition they aren’t capturing the centre ground – as
demonstrated by the failure of the “decapitation strategy”.

In reality they have got some way to go before they can genuinely claim to be turning into
the real opposition. The worry for Liberal Democrats is that if voters think it is a closer Lab-
Tory fight at the next election it is likely that this Lib-Dem swing will move back to Labour
unless they reach out more in terms of leadership and policies.

Wales Results
Party                     Seats       Gain/Loss        Votes            %         +/- %

Labour                    29          -5               594,821          42.7      -5.9
Liberal Democrats         4           +2               256,223          18.4      +4.6
Conservatives             3           +3               297,830          21.4      +0.4
Plaid Cymru               3           -1               174,838          12.6      -1.7
Independent               1           +1               20,505

Election night provided a true rollercoaster ride for the parties in Wales. Several seats were
expected to change hands but there were some significant shocks and some deep
disappointments. It was a night of personalities – the profile of local candidates was key to
some of the big swings of the night in seats such as Preseli Pembrokeshire, Blaenau Gwent
and Cardiff North.

Labour went into the election expecting to lose seats and must be relieved that they held
onto Ynys Mon and Cardiff North. However, the loss of Blaenau Gwent to the ex-Labour
independent Peter Law and Preseli Pembrokeshire to the Conservatives are bitter blows.

Blaenau Gwent
The ex-Labour independent candidate and Assembly Member Peter Law was successful,
winning 20,505 votes to take Labour’s 5th safest seat in the UK, overturning a 19,000
majority. Peter Law said his result was "what you get when you don't listen to people” and
was a bitter blow for Labour early on in the night.

Conservative Gains
The Welsh Conservatives won three of their key target seats, Monmouth, Clwyd West and
Preseli Pembrokeshire, and significantly reduced majorities in their other targets of Vale of
Glamorgan and Cardiff North. It was expected that Monmouth would fall to the
Conservatives but winning Clwyd West and particularly Preseli Pembrokeshire can be seen
as a good result for the Conservatives in Wales.

However, the Conservative share of the vote across Wales only increased by 0.4%, which is
not the move forward they were hoping for, and they failed to keep Brecon and Radnor a
marginal seat.




                                               3
Liberal Democrat Gains
It was widely expected that the Lib Dems would finally succeed in Cardiff Central but there
had been little expectation that they would capture Ceredigion from Plaid Cymru this time
round. The Liberal Democrat vote across Wales was up by 4.6% and they now have the
largest number of MPs in Wales after Labour.

Other positive results for the Liberal Democrats saw them increase their majority in Brecon
and Radnor from 751 to over 3,905 and to win 30 per cent of the vote in Swansea West.

Plaid Cymru disappointments
Plaid Cymru had a disappointing night – not only did they fail to recapture Ynys Mon, they
failed to hold onto Ceredigion, which was considered a safe seat with a majority of almost
4,000. There were some positive results with increased majorities in the seats that Plaid
Cymru held onto, in particular doubling their majority in Carmarthen East.

The Plaid Cymru vote across Wales dropped by 1.7 % and is a further drop back from their
electoral highpoint in 1999. Plaid Cymru are now clearly the fourth party in Parliamentary
elections, in a worse position than they were in at the 1997 General Election, and it is hard
to see them holding onto their position as the official opposition in the Assembly elections in
2007. An urgent review of their strategy is being held next week by senior figures, to try and
identify the causes of the result.

Turnout
Turnout in Wales was up on 2001 by 1.8% to 62.4%, following the UK trend. Turnout in
marginal seats was extremely high, reflecting the parties’ engagement with the electorate and
postal voting has been held up as a reason for the overall increased turnout.

Implications for the Assembly – short term
David Davies, the new Conservative MP and AM for Monmouth has said that he will hold his
dual mandate until the Assembly Elections in 2007. With both David and Peter Law
representing their constituencies in the Assembly and Westminster, it remains to be seen
where they spend most of their time. With no overall majority in the Assembly, the lack of
their votes may be crucial

Implications for the Assembly – longer term
With 2 years until the next Assembly elections, these results will provoke some uneasy
thoughts for party strategists. Labour will be desperate to win a majority (30 seats) but it is
seeming less likely as they now don’t even hold 30 seats in Westminster. Plaid Cymru are
currently the official opposition with 12 seats but the Conservatives will be looking to pick
up seats and overtake Plaid. A continuing minority Labour administration is much more likely
now the results are in.




                                              4
Welsh Results by Constituency
Aberavon                     Turnout 58.9 %

Candidate           Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Hywel Francis       Labour             18,077   60.1%        - 3.0%
Claire Waller       Liberal Democrat   4,114    13.7 %       + 4.0%
Philip Evans        Plaid Cymru        3,545    11.8 %       + 2.0%
Annunziata Rees-    Conservative       3,064    10.2 %       + 2.6 %
Mogg

Alyn and Deeside             Turnout 60.2 %

Candidate           Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Mark Tami           Labour             17,331   48.8 %       - 3.5 %
Lynne Hale          Conservative       8,953    25.2 %       - 1.1 %
Paul Brighton       Liberal Democrat   6,174    17.4 %       + 4.5 %
Richard Coombs      Plaid Cymru        1,320    3.7 %        + 0.4 %

Blaenau Gwent                Turnout 66.1 %

Candidate           Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Peter Law           Independent        20,505   58.2 %       + 58.2 %
Maggie Jones        Labour             11,384   32.3 %       - 39.7 %
Brian Thomas        Liberal Democrat   1,511    4.3 %        - 5.0 %
John Price          Plaid Cymru        843      2.4 %        - 8.8 %
Phillip Lee         Conservative       816      2.3 %        - 5.2 %

Brecon and Radnor            Turnout 69.5 %

Candidate           Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Roger Williams      Liberal Democrat   17,182   44.8 %       + 8.0 %
Andrew Davies       Conservative       13,277   34.6 %       - 0.2 %
Leighton Veale      Labour             5,755    15.0 %       - 6.4 %
Mabon ap            Plaid Cymru        1,404    3.7 %        +0.2 %
Gwynfor

Bridgend                     Turnout 59.2 %

Candidate           Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Madeleine Moon      Labour             16,410   43.3 %       - 9.2 %
Helen Baker         Conservative       9,887    26.1 %       + 0.8 %
Paul Warren         Liberal Democrat   7,949    21.0 %       + 6.6 %
Gareth Clubb        Plaid Cymru        2,527    6.7 %




                                          5
Caernarfon                    Turnout 60.4 %

Candidate           Party              Vote      Percentage   +/- 2001
Hywel Williams      Plaid Cymru        12,747    45.5 %       +1.1 %
Martin Eaglestone   Labour             7,538     26.9 %       - 5.4 %
Mel ab Owain        Liberal Democrat   3,508     12.5 %       +6.2 %
Guy Opperman        Conservative       3,483     12.4 %       - 2.8 %

Caerphilly                    Turnout 58.6 %

Candidate           Party              Vote      Percentage   +/- 2001
Wayne David         Labour             22,190    56.6 %       - 1.6 %
Lindsay Whittle     Plaid Cymru        6,831     17.4 %       -3.6 %
Stephen Watson      Conservative       5,711     14.6 %       +3.2 %
Ashgar Ali          Liberal Democrat   3, 861    9.8 %        + 0.4 %

Cardiff Central               Turnout 59.2 %

Candidate           Party              Vote      Percentage   +/- 2001
Jenny Willott       Liberal Democrat   17,991    49.8 %       + 13.1 %
Jon Owen Jones      Labour             12, 398   34.3 %       - 4.3
Gotz Mohindra       Conservative       3,339     9.2 %        - 6.7 %
Richard Grigg       Plaid Cymru        1,271     3.5 %        - 1.3 %

Cardiff North                 Turnout 70.5 %

Candidate           Party              Vote      Percentage   +/- 2001
Julie Morgan        Labour             17,707    39.0 %       - 6.9 %
Jonathan Morgan     Conservative       16,561    36.5 %       + 4.9 %
John Dixon          Liberal Democrat   8,483     18.7 %       + 3.4 %
John Rowlands       Plaid Cymru        1,936     4.3 %        - 1.4%

Cardiff South and Penarth     Turnout 56.2 %

Candidate           Party            Vote        Percentage   +/- 2001
Alun Michael        Labour           17,447      47.3 %       - 8.9 %
Victoria Green      Conservative     8,210       22.2 %       + 0.4 %
Gavin Cox           Liberal Democrat 7,529       20.4 %       + 7.6 %
Jason Toby          Plaid Cymru      2,023       5.5 %        0

Cardiff West                  Turnout 57.7 %

Candidate           Party              Vote      Percentage   +/- 2001
Kevin Brennan       Labour             15,729    45.5 %       - 9.1 %
Simon Baker         Conservative       7,562     21.9 %       + 0.6 %
Alison              Liberal Democrat   6,060     17.5 %       + 4.4 %
Goldsworthy
Neil McEvoy         Plaid Cymru        4,316     12.5 %       +2.8 %




                                          6
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Turnout 71.6 %

Candidate         Party              Vote      Percentage      +/- 2001
Adam Price        Plaid Cymru        17,561    45.9 %          + 3.5%
Ross Hendry       Labour             10,843    28.3 %          - 7.3 %
Suzy Davies       Conservative       5,235     13.7 %          + 0.8 %
Julianna Hughes   Liberal Democrat   3,719     9.7 %           + 2.3 %

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire       Turnout 67.3 %

Candidate         Party              Vote      Percentage      +/- 2001
Nick Ainger       Labour             13,953    36.9 %          - 4.7 %
David Morris      Conservative       12,043    31.8 %          + 2.5 %
John Dixon        Plaid Cymru        5,582     14.7 %          - 4.0 %
John Allen        Liberal Democrat   5,399     14.3 %          +5.5 %

Ceredigion                  Turnout 67.2 %

Candidate         Party              Vote      Percentage      +/- 2001
Mark Williams     Liberal Democrat   13,130    36.5 %          +9.6 %
Simon Thomas      Plaid Cymru        12,911    35.9 %          -2.4 %
John Harrison     Conservative       4,455     12.4 %          -7.0 %
Alun Davies       Labour             4,337     12.1 %          -3.3 %

Clwyd South                 Turnout 62.9 %

Candidate         Party              Vote      Percentage      +/- 2001
Martyn Jones      Labour             14,808    45.0 %          - 6.4 %
Tom Biggins       Conservative       8,460     25.7 %          + 0.9%
Deric Burnham     Liberal Democrat   5,105     15.5 %          +5.3 %
Mark Strong       Plaid Cymru        3,111     9.4 %           - 2.5 %

Clwyd West                  Turnout 64.0 %

Candidate         Party              Vote      Percentage      +/- 2001
David Jones       Conservative       12,909    36.2 %          + 0.6 %
Gareth Thomas     Labour             12,776    35.9 %          - 2.9 %
Frank Taylor      Liberal Democrat   4,723     13.3 %          +1.9 %
Eilian Williams   Plaid Cymru        3,874     10.9 %          - 2.0 %

Conwy                       Turnout 62.3 %

Candidate         Party              Vote      Percentage      +/- 2001
Betty Williams    Labour             12,479    37.1 %          - 4.7 %
Guto Bebb         Conservative       9,398     27.9 %          +4.2 %
Gareth Roberts    Liberal Democrat   6,723     20.0 %          + 3.1 %
Paul Rowlinson    Plaid Cymru        3,730     11.1 %          - 5.4 %




                                          7
Cynon Valley                Turnout 58.7 %

Candidate         Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Ann Clwyd         Labour             17,074   64.1 %       - 1.5 %
Geraint Benney    Plaid Cymru        3,815    14.3 %       - 3.1 %
Margaret Phelps   Liberal Democrat   2,991    11.2 %       + 1.8 %
Antonia Dunn      Conservative       2,062    7.7 %        + 0.1 %

Delyn                       Turnout 64.4 %

Candidate         Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
David Hanson      Labour             15,540   45.7 %       - 5.8 %
John Bell         Conservative       8,896    26.2 %       - 0.4 %
Tudor Jones       Liberal Democrat   6,089    17.9 %       + 2.5 %
Phil Thomas       Plaid Cymru        2,524    7.4 %        + 0.9 %

Gower                       Turnout 64.9 %

Candidate         Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Martin Caton      Labour             16,786   42.5 %       - 4.8 %
Mike Murray       Conservative       10,083   25.5 %       - 2.0 %
Nick Tregonig     Liberal Democrat   7,291    18.4 %       + 6.3 %
Sian Caiaich      Plaid Cymru        3,089    7.8 %        - 2.5 %

Islwyn                      Turnout 61.0 %

Candidate         Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Don Touhig        Labour             19,687   63.8 %       +2.3 %
Jim Criddle       Plaid Cymru        3,947    12.8 %       +0.9 %
Lee Dillon        Liberal Democrat   3,873    12.5 %       - 0.7 %
Phillip Howells   Conservative       3,358    10.9 %       + 2.9 %

Llanelli                    Turnout 63.5 %

Candidate         Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Nia Griffith      Labour             16,592   46.9 %       - 1.7 %
Neil Baker        Plaid Cymru        9,358    26.5 %       - 4.4 %
Adrian Phillips   Conservative       4,844    13.7 %       + 4.2 %
Ken Rees          Liberal Democrat   4,550    12.9 %       + 4.4 %

Meirionnydd Nant Conwy      Turnout 61.7 %

Candidate         Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Elfyn Llwyd       Plaid Cymru        10,597   51.3 %       + 1.7 %
Rhodri Jones      Labour             3,983    19.3 %       - 3.4 %
Dan Munford       Conservative       3,402    16.5 %       - 2.3 %
Adrian Fawcett    Liberal Democrat   2,192    10.6 %       + 1.7 %




                                        8
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney   Turnout 54.9 %

Candidate          Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Dai Havard         Labour             18,129   60.5 %       - 1.3 %
Ceirion Rees       Liberal Democrat   4,195    14.0 %       + 6.5 %
Noel Turner        Plaid Cymru        2,972    9.9 %        - 4.8 %
Roger Berry        Conservative       2,680    8.9 %        + 1.7 %

Monmouth                     Turnout 72.4 %

Candidate          Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
David Davies       Conservative       21,396   46.9 %       + 5.0 %
Huw Edwards        Labour             16,869   37.0 %       - 5.8 %
Phil Hobson        Liberal Democrat   5,852    12.8 %       + 1.4 %
Jonathan Clark     Plaid Cymru        993      2.2 %        - 0.2 %

Montgomeryshire              Turnout 64.4 %

Candidate          Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Lembit Opik        Liberal Democrat   15,419   51.2 %       + 1.8 %
Simon Baynes       Conservative       8,246    27.4 %       - 0.5 %
David Tinline      Labour             3,454    11.5 %       - 0.4 %
Ellen ap Gwynn     Plaid Cymru        2,078    6.9 %        + 0.1 %

Neath                        Turnout 62.2 %

Candidate          Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Peter Hain         Labour             18,835   52.6 %       - 8.1 %
Geraint Owen       Plaid Cymru        6,125    17.1 %       - 1.3 %
Sheila Waye        Liberal Democrat   5,112    14.3 %       + 4.8 %
Harri Davies       Conservative       4,136    11.5 %       + 2.0 %

Newport East                 Turnout 57.9 %

Candidate          Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Jessica Morden     Labour             14,389   45.2 %       - 9.5 %
Ed Townsend        Liberal Democrat   7,551    23.7 %       + 9.7 %
Matthew Collings   Conservative       7,459    23.4 %       + 0.2 %
Mohammad           Plaid Cymru        1,221    3.8 %        - 1.1 %
Asghar

Newport West                 Turnout 59.3 %

Candidate          Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Paul Flynn         Labour             16,021   44.8 %       - 7.9 %
William Morgan     Conservative       10,563   29.6 %       + 3.4 %
Nigel Flanagan     Liberal Democrat   6,398    17.9 %       + 6.2 %
Anthony Salkend    Plaid Cymru        1,278    3.6 %        - 3.6 %




                                         9
Ogmore                        Turnout 57.8

Candidate           Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Huw Irranca-        Labour             18,295   60.4 %       - 1.6 %
Davies
Jackie Radford      Liberal Democrat   4,592    15.2 %       + 2.4 %
Norma Lloyd-        Conservative       4,243    14.0 5       + 2.9 %
Nesling
John Williams       Plaid Cymru        3,148    10.4 %       - 3.6 %

Pontypridd                    Turnout 60.9 %

Candidate           Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Kim Howells         Labour             20,919   52.8 %       - 7.1 %
Mike Powell         Liberal Democrat   7,728    19.5 %       + 8.7 %
Quentin Edwards     Conservative       5,321    13.4 %       + 0.1 %
Julie Richards      Plaid Cymru        4,420    11.2 %       - 2.6 %

Preseli Pembrokeshire         Turnout 69.5 %

Candidate           Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Stephen Crabb       Conservative       14,106   36.6 %       + 3.3
Sue Hayman          Labour             13,499   35.0 %       - 6.3 %
Dewi Smith          Liberal Democrat   4,963    12.9 %       + 2.3 %
Matt Mathias        Plaid Cymru        4,752    12.3 %       - 0.4 5

Rhondda                       Turnout 61.0 %

Candidate           Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Chris Bryant        Labour             21,198   68.1 %       - 0.2 %
Percy Jones         Plaid Cymru        4,956    15.9 %       - 5.2 %
Karen Roberts       Liberal Democrat   3,264    10.5 %       + 6.0 %
Paul Stuart-Smith   Conservative       1,730    5.6 %        + 1.0 %

Swansea East                  Turnout 52.4 %

Candidate           Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Sian James          Labour             17,457   56.6         - 8.6 %
Robert Speht        Liberal Democrat   6,208    20.1 %       + 9.9 %
Ellie Bland         Conservative       3,103    10.1 %       0
Carolyn Shan        Plaid Cymru        2,129    6.9 %        - 4.6 %
Couch

Swansea West                  Turnout 57.1

Candidate           Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Alan Williams       Labour             13,833   41.8 %       - 6.9 %
Rene Kinzett        Liberal Democrat   9,564    28.9 %       + 12.3 %
Mohammed            conservative       5,285    16.0 %       - 3.0 %
Abdel-Haq
Harri Roberts       Plaid Cymru        2,150    6.5 %        - 4.1 %


                                         10
Torfaen                       Turnout 59.3 %

Candidate           Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Paul Murphy         Labour             20,472   56.9 %       - 5.2 %
Nick Ramsey         Conservative       5,681    15.8 5       - 0.1 %
Veronica Watkins    Liberal Democrat   5,678    15.8 %       + 4.6 %
Aneurin Preece      Plaid Cymru        2,242    6.2 %        - 1.5 %

Vale of Clwyd                 Turnout 62.2 %

Candidate           Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Chris Ruane         Labour             14,875   46.0 %       - 4.0 %
Felicity Elphick    conservative       10,206   31.6 %       - 0.6 %
Elizabeth Jewkes    Liberal Democrat   3,820    11.8 %       + 2.3 %
Mark Jones          Plaid Cymru        2,309    7.1 %        0

Vale of Glamorgan             Turnout 68.9 %

Candidate           Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
John Smith          Labour             19,481   41.2 %       - 4.2 %
Alun Cairns         Conservative       17,673   37.3 %       + 2.3 %
Mark Hooper         Liberal Democrat   6,140    13.0 %       + 0.8 %
Barry Shaw          Plaid Cymru        2,423    5.1 %        - 1.2 %

Wrexham                       Turnout 63.3 %

Candidate           Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Ian Lucas           Labour             13,993   46.1 %       - 6.9 %
Tom Rippeth         Liberal Democrat   7,174    23.6 %       + 6.5 %
Therese Coffey      Conservative       6,079    20.0         - 2.5 %
Sion Owen           Plaid Cymru        1,744    5.7 %        - 0.2 %

Ynys Mon                      Turnout 67.5 %

Candidate           Party              Vote     Percentage   +/- 2001
Albert Owen         Labour             12,278   34.6 %       - 0.4 %
Eurig Wyn           Plaid Cymru        11,036   31.1 %       - 1.5 %
Peter Rogers        Independent        5,216    14.7 %       + 14.7 %
James Roach         Conservative       3,915    11.0 %       - 11.5 %
Sarah Green         Liberal Democrat   2,418    6.8 %        - 1.3 %




                                         11
Summary of Results
Key battlegrounds in bold

Seat                    Incumbent   Prediction   Result
Aberavon

Alyn & Deeside

Blaenau Gwent
                                                  IND
Brecon & Radnor

Bridgend

Caernarfon

Caerphilly

Cardiff Central

Cardiff North
                                         or
Cardiff South &
Penarth
Cardiff West

Carmarthen East &
Dinefwr
Carmarthen West &
S Pembs
Ceredigion

Clwyd South

Clwyd West
                                         or
Conwy

Cynon Valley

Delyn

Gower

Islwyn




                                    12
Llanelli

Meirionnydd Nant
Conwy
Merthyr Tydfil

Monmouth

Montgomery

Neath

Newport East

Newport West

Ogmore

Pontypridd

Preseli
Pembrokeshire            or
Rhondda

Swansea East

Swansea West

Torfaen

Vale of Clwyd

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham

Ynys Mon
                         or




                    13

								
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