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					            Proposition 8
Post-Election California Voter Survey

      Prepared by David Binder Research


         Conducted November 6th - 16th, 2008
Research
Methodology
                      Methodology

Respondents   800 voters living in California who voted in the November
              2008 election, plus an additional oversample of 266 Asian,
              Latino, and African American voters.




  Margin of   Margin of error: 3.0%
     Error


     Dates    Poll was conducted November 6th to 16th, 2008.




                                       3
Summary
Findings




           4
                Summary Findings: Overall

Overall   •   Proposition 8 was passed on November 4, 2008 by a margin of 52% to
Results       48% by a margin of about 600,000 votes out of 1.3 million votes cast.

          •   Two areas of the state stood out: The Central Valley counties
              overwhelmingly supported the measure by 71%-29%, while the more
              populous Bay Area was strongly opposed (39%-61%).

              However, the Southern California counties which comprise 55% of the
              total vote supported Prop 8 by 54% to 46%. In Los Angeles County,
              69% voted for Barack Obama for President, but slightly less than 50%
              voted no on Proposition 8 – a gap of 19 percentage points (compared
              to a 13 point differential statewide).




                                           5
         Summary Findings: Demographics
  Results •   Political ideology was the factor that corresponded most highly to the
      by      Proposition 8 vote, with 22% of liberals voting yes on 8, compared to
Subgroup      51% of moderates and 82% of conservatives.

          •   Election day exit polls that showed 70% of African American voters
              supporting Proposition 8 appear incorrect. Our survey shows 58% of
              Blacks voting for 8. Precincts in Southern California’s most
              concentrated areas of African American voters – Carson and Compton
              – show 65% support for Prop 8. Predominately African American
              precincts in other areas of LA County and in San Francisco showed
              support in the low-to-mid 50 percent range.

          •   The factor next most important in determining vote on Prop 8, after
              ideology, was religion, with voters who worship regularly being
              strongly more likely to support Prop 8, by a 70% to 30%, while those
              who worship less often voted 38% to 62% against Prop 8.

              Blacks and Latinos who worship less than once a week opposed Prop
              8.




                                            6
           Summary Findings: Reasons for Vote and Influencers

           •   Supporters of Prop 8 most frequently cited their view that marriage is
Reasons
               between a man and a woman.
     for
   Vote
           •   Secondarily, Prop 8 supporters disclosed religious reasons as motive
               for their support.

           •   Opponents of Prop 8 most frequently cited their view that same sex
               marriage was an issue of civil rights and equal rights, as well as their
               view that everyone should have the freedom to marry the person of
               their choosing.

   Influ- •    Most voters stated they were most influenced by discussions with
  encers       friends, family and coworkers. This pool of voters opposed
               Proposition 8.

           •   About one-quarter said they had a strong personal opinion on the issue
               that was not swayed by other communications. This pool voted yes.

           •   About 8% said they were swayed by the church. This pool voted yes by
               94% to 6%.



                                              7
                    Summary Findings: Communications
 TV ads
          •   Among the yes on 8 ads, the message that stood out was that Prop 8
              will cause the teaching of same sex marriage in schools.

          •   Among the no on 8 ads, most saw the ad featuring Senator Dianne
              Feinstein.

          •   The ads with Feinstein and Sam and Julia Thoron were statistically
              more likely to cause a no vote than were other ads. The History ad
              narrated by Samuel L. Jackson was also convincing.

          •   Vast majority of voters said mail and telephone calls were not
  Other       influential.
Commu-
nication •    Only 5% visited official campaign websites, but those who visited the
sources       no on 8 website rated it more influential than visitors to the yes site.

          •   About 10% said they received information from a church, and 49% felt
              this information was convincing – a much higher proportion than other
              sources, such as labor unions, newspaper editorials and television ads.




                                             8
                     Summary Findings: Messaging
Messa- •   Only about 17% of yes on 8 voters could name something tangible that
  ging     could cause them to change their mind and support same sex
           marriage, including:

            •   Call marriage by another name
            •   Ensure that same sex marriage will not be taught in schools
            •   Ensure that churches will not be forced to perform same sex
                marriages
            •   Approval, or lack of formal opposition, from churches or religious
                leaders




                                          9
Election Results
                      California Election Results
                           November 4, 2008




         President                             Prop 8

Obama     8,274,473       61.1%         No      6,401,482   47.7%



McCain    5,011,781       37.0%         Yes     7,001,084   52.3%



                Gap between Obama vote and No on 8
                    vote was 1.8 million, or 14%
                                 Prop 8 vs Obama




Prop 8 Map – 52% Yes vs 48% No              Presidential Vote -- 61% Obama vs 37% McCain




                                       12
  LA County had 19% difference between vote for Obama and vote against
                                 Prop 8



                                 Region                    % Obama          % No on 8     % Obama – Prop 8

                 LA County                                    69                50               19

                 San Diego County                             54                46                8

                 Other Southern California                    51                40               11

                 Central Valley                               46                29               17

                 Sacramento / Tahoe Region                    55                43               12

                 Bay Area                                     74                61               13
                 Central Coast                                64                56                8
                 Inland / Mountains / Other                   46                40                6
                 Total                                        61                48               13

Other Southern California: Riverside, San Bernardino, Santa Barbara, Ventura
Central Valley: Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Stanislaus, Tulare
Sacramento / Tahoe: Amador, El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Yolo
Bay Area: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Mendocino, Napa, SF, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, Sonoma
Central Coast: Monterey, San Benito, San Luis Obispo, Santa Cruz
Inland / Mountains / Other: Alpine, Butte, Calaveras, Colusa, Del Norte, Glenn, Humboldt, Inyo, Lake, Lassen, Mariposa,
Modoc, Mono, Nevada, Plumas, Shasta, Sierra, Siskiyou, Sutter, Tehama, Trinity,. Tuolumne, Yuba
                                                              13
          Prop 8 generated far more interest than any other state proposition


                     Which one of the 12 state propositions on the November 4 th ballot were you most
                     interested in?


                  Prop 1A                     5
                   Prop 2                     5
                   Prop 3         2
                   Prop 4                     5
                   Prop 5     1
                   Prop 6
                   Prop 7         2
                   Prop 8                                                                               63
                   Prop 9 0
                  Prop 10     1
                  Prop 11             3
                  Prop 12     1
               All equally                4
            None of them                  4
               Don't know                 4




Source: PPIC Statewide Survey, Dec 2008
                                                             14
           The outcome of Prop 8 was more important to Yes voters than No
                                      voters

                As you may know, Proposition 8 passed. How important to you is the
                outcome of the vote on Proposition 8?
                                                       Yes Voters           No Voters

                                                                                                    74
                   Very Important
                                                                                         59

                                                           18                          % Very Important
            Somewhat Important
                                                                22
                                                                      • Evangelical Christians: 77% (vs all others: 61%)
                                              5                       • Women: 69% (vs Men: 60%)
                 Not too important                                    • Latinos: 67%
                                                      10
                                                                      • Overall: 65%
                                                                      • Whites: 64%
                                          3
               Not at all important
                                                  7

                                      0
                       Don't know
                                          2




Source: PPIC Statewide Survey, Dec 2008
                                                                     15
Vote by
Subgroups
            Prop 8 by gender
              % voting yes




Women                    49




  Men                         54




        0               50




                   17
                      Prop 8 by gender and family status
                                 % voting yes



   Women, parents                               47



Women, not parents                               50



      Men, parents                                        60



   Men, not parents                                  52


                      0                         50




                                      18
               Prop 8 by age
                % voting yes


Under 30                      45


    30s                  41


    40s                                 52


   50-64                       47


    65+                                      65


           0                       50




                    19
                      Prop 8 by ethnicity

                         % voting Yes


         White                      50


         Black                              58


Hispanic/Latino                             59


         Asian                     48


         Other                39


                  0                50




                              20
                   Prop 8 by party
                    % voting yes



  Democrats           30




Independents                            52




 Republicans                                 81



               0                   50




                           21
There is a direct correspondence between voters’ self-placement on
   an ideological scale and the percent supporting Proposition 8


                                        % voting yes
                                                                                          86
                                                                           79
                                                             70

                                                53


                                  32
     21            22




  Very liberal   Somewhat    Moderate, lean   Moderate   Moderate, lean Somewhat          Very
                   liberal      liberal                   conservative Conservative   conservative
                       Prop 8 by religion
                          % voting yes


   Catholic                                   55


 Protestant                                        66


   Jewish*        17


     Other                               49


No Religion               29


              0                          50




                               23
                       Prop 8 by frequency of worship
                                % voting yes



Once a week or more                                      70



  Few times a month                                 49



        Special
                                               44
   occasions/holiday



         Hardly ever                  30


                       0                            50




                                     24
                                   Prop 8 by education level

                                         % voting Yes



High school graduate                                          56



    Some college or
                                                              57
    associate degree



   College graduate                                      50



 Postgraduate study                                40


                               0                        50




     Source: media exit poll
                                              25
                   Prop 8 by presidential vote

                          % voting Yes




Barack Obama              30




 John McCain                                     86




               0                    50




                               26
                       Prop 8 by knowledge of LGBT people

                                  % voting Yes



       Are LGBT         5




     Know LGBT                               48




Do not know LGBT                                  60



                   0                         50




                                       27
Timing &
Influences
                                 Yes voters are driven by the belief that
                                marriage is between a man and a woman

                                         What are the reasons why you voted YES on Proposition 8?
                                                         BASE: Those voting YES


                Believe marriage is between a man and woman                                         40

                                              Religious reasons                           29

                            Don’t believe in same sex marriage                       15

                 Family reasons, should not be taught in school                  9

                                                   Moral issues              5

                             Thought it was the right way to vote            5

           Homosexuals can live in union; do not call it marriage            5

                     Already voted on, already have equal rights             5

                              No conviction; does not affect me          2




Q8 N=549                                                            29
                   No voters are driven by belief in equal rights and
                          freedom to choose whom to marry

                                          What are the reasons why you voted NO on Proposition 8?
                                                          BASE: Those voting NO



               Believe in: civil rights, equal rights, freedom to
                                                                                                    40
                            choose whom to marry


             Prop 8 discriminates, is unequal, wrong to deny
                                                                                      26
                            people their rights


           Should not be on ballot, govt shouldn’t be allowed
            to decide who marries whom / unconstitutional /                    18
                          takes away rights


                Not my right to tell someone who they can or
                                                                        11
                                 cannot marry


              Know or is homosexual and/or wants chance to
                                                                    6
                             marry partner




Q9 N=515                                                   30
         Majority of voters were most influenced by discussions with friends
        and family and their personal opinion, while 8% were most influenced
                                     by religion.
                              Which of the following was the most influential to you
                                 when deciding how to vote on Proposition 8?


           Discussion with friends,
                                                          29
           families and coworkers

                    Personal opinion                     26

               The information in the
                                                    12
                 ballot pamphlet

                      Religion/ Bible           8

                       Television
                                            6
                     advertisements

                 Newspaper articles     3


               Newspaper editorials     2




Q12 (N=1066)                                                  31
               Voters influenced by discussions more likely to vote no, voters
                      influenced by the religion more likely to vote yes

                              Which of the following was the most influential to you
                                 when deciding how to vote on Proposition 8?

                                                % voting Yes
           Discussion with friends,
                                                                45
           families and coworkers

                    Personal opinion                                     53

               The information in the
                                                               43
                 ballot pamphlet

                      Religion/ Bible                                                  94

                       Television
                                                                              58
                     advertisements

                 Newspaper articles                     31


               Newspaper editorials                                 47




Q12 (N=1066)                                           32
Communications
      Ads, mail & discussions with friends and family had the greatest reach.
        Phone calls and newspaper endorsements also had strong reach.




                                                                  Received information this way

                           Television ads                                    90
                                     Mail                                   86
       Discussions with friends and family                                  85
                              Phone calls                   36
               Newspaper endorsements                  27
       Discussions with clergy, members            24
                      Ads in ethnic media         19
                    Church or synagogue      10
                             Labor union     9
                        Ads on web sites     8
                        Official web sites   7




Q28-34 (N=1066)                                                  34
              While about one-third of voters report receiving a
             phone call about Prop 8, 95% say it wasn’t effective



                                                                                            95
    64
                  Number of phone                       Influence of
                  calls received                        phone calls




             12
                  9
                       6     6
                                      3             3                     2

  No calls   1    2    3   4 or 5    6 or   More likely to vote   More likely to vote   No influence
                                    more           yes                    no




Q63 (N=1066)
               Seeing gay couples being married on TV did not
                significantly affect the vote on Proposition 8

                                                   Have you ever seen same sex couples get married on the
                                                   news or on television? (IF YES:) Did that make you more
                                   55            likely to vote YES on 8, more likely to vote NO on 8, or did it
                                                                  make no difference to you?




                   20
                                                           14
                                                                                           11



               Did Not See   Saw, but made no      Saw, made more       Saw, made more
                                difference      likely to vote YES on likely to vote NO on
                                                           8                     8




Q63 (N=1066)
               About 69% saw a Yes on 8 ad, but only 18% found
                              them convincing



                                                                                               72
    31
                     Number of yes on                   Convincingness
                     8 ads seen                         of TV ads
               23

                                            17
                       14         15




                                                       9            9            9

  Did not   1 to 4    5 to 10   11 to 20   20 or
  see/not                                  more       Very      somewhat       not too    not convincing
   sure                                            convincing   convincing   convincing        at all




Q63 (N=1066)
                         The Yes on 8 ad most frequently recalled is about
                          the teaching of same sex marriage in schools.
                Can you describe for me one television ad for yes on 8 that you remember
                that was convincing?


               Teaching same sex marriage in schools                       18
               Child with book about a king marrying a
                                                                  5
                 king (prince marrying prince, etc.)
                    Traditional marriage (man marrying
                                                              3
                                 woman)
               Mayor talking about same sex marriage/
                                                          2
                             proposition 8
                  Children on field trip to gay wedding   2
              Parents talking about homosexual son or
                                                          2
                              daughter
                  Commercial about kids (not specific)    1
                Religious commercials about same sex
                                                          1
                             marriage
                            Discrimination commercial     1
              Spanish commercial talking about same
                                                          1
                         sex marriage
                                                 None                                      52




Q27 (N=549)                                                           38
                                No on 8 Ads Seen: Dianne seen by most

                                                                      Percent recall seeing ad

               Dianne: Feinstein saying vote no on 8 to say no to
                                 discrimination
                                                                                 67

           History: Narrated by Samuel L Jackson with Japanese
              Interment camps; saying vote No on 8 to oppose                43
                               discrimination
         Thoron: Sam & Julia Thoron wanting same civil rights for
             their lesbian daughter as for their straight sons
                                                                           38

            Endorsements: No on 8 has been endorsed by major
                    papers, unions, and corporations.
                                                                           35
        Wedding: Garden wedding, bride is blocked from getting
       married with tag line “What if you couldn't marry the person        34
                               you love?”
        Ellen: Ellen DeGeneres expressing support for the right to
                                                                       33
                      marry the person she chooses
       Families: non-gay family member talking about gay relative
       who had gotten married; "As CA's gay couples marry, their      24
                        families grow stronger"




Q28-34 (N=1066)                                              39
           No on 8 Ads Seen: Among viewers, Thoron ad is more convincing

                             Very convincing      Somewhat convincing




                   Dianne     17        15                32

            History (SLJ)          23        13           36


                   Thoron          23          20         43

           Endorsements      13         19                32

        Garden wedding        14        17                31

                     Ellen    16        17                33


                  Families     18        16               34




Q28-34 (N=1066)                                40
       Voters who saw Dianne and Thoron are more likely to have voted no on
                                    Prop 8.


                                                                     % Yes on 8
                                                                                                  *Significant at the
               Dianne: Feinstein saying vote no on 8 to say no to                                .001 level in logistic
                                 discrimination
                                                                                   46            regression analysis
          History: Narrated by Samuel L Jackson with Japanese
             Interment camps; saying vote No on 8 to oppose                            47
                              discrimination
        Thoron: Sam & Julia Thoron wanting same civil rights for
                                                                                  42
            their lesbian daughter as for their straight sons

            Endorsements: No on 8 has been endorsed by major
                                                                                       48
                    papers, unions, and corporations.
       Wedding: Garden wedding, bride is blocked from getting
      married with tag line “What if you couldn't marry the person                      50
                              you love?”
       Ellen: Ellen DeGeneres expressing support for the right to
                     marry the person she chooses
                                                                                            52

       Families: non-gay family member talking about gay relative
       who had gotten married; "As CA's gay couples marry, their                   46
                        families grow stronger"




Q28-34 (N=1066)                                                 41
Takeaways
            Majority of voters believed that Prop 8 would preserve traditional
                                         marriage


        All Voters                                                     Agree            Don't Know            Disagree



                      Prop 8 would preserve traditional marriage                  58                 5         37



                      Prop 8 was backed by the Mormon Church                     49                      32         19


        Prop 8 would stop the teaching of same sex marriage to
                     children in elementary school
                                                                            37              17                46


       Prop 8 would serve to rein in the activist judges on the CA
                           Supreme Court
                                                                           29               29                41



         Prop 8 would protect the tax-exempt status of churches       19               36                     45




Q49-58 (N=1066)                                                  43
          Majority of voters agree that it is wrong to eliminate constitutional
        right of equal protection and that Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and
                                          wrong

        All Voters                                                   Agree         Don't Know             Disagree



        Regardless of how you feel about marriage, it's wrong to
          eliminate the constitutional right of 'equal protection'
                                                                              52               10             37



                     Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and wrong                 51           5             44


             Prop 8 meant that CA law would allow discrimination
                     against some groups & individuals
                                                                             50            6             45


       Prop 8 meant that CA laws would no longer treat everyone
                           equally & fairly
                                                                             46        6                 49


        Prop 8 was opposed by the League of Women Voters &
                             the CTA
                                                                             45                     36             18




Q49-58 (N=1066)                                                 44
         9% voted YES, but believe that Prop 8 is unfair, unnecessary, and wrong. Regression
           analysis indicates they were motivated by the belief that Prop 8 will preserve
              traditional marriage & stop the teaching of same sex marriage in school.

     Yes voters who believe Prop 8 is
       unfair, unnecessary, wrong
                     Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and wrong                                 100                        0

                   Prop 8 would preserve traditional marriage *                          78                         15
       Prop 8 would stop the teaching of same sex marriage to
                                                                                    62                     29
                    children in elementary school *
       Regardless of how you feel about marriage, it's wrong to
         eliminate the constitutional right of 'equal protection'
                                                                               47                         39
    Prop 8 meant that CA law would allow discrimination against
                     some groups & individuals
                                                                          36                         51

                     Prop 8 was backed by the Mormon Church               35                                   25
      Prop 8 would serve to rein in the activist judges on the CA
                          Supreme Court
                                                                         34                               34
     Prop 8 meant that CA laws would no longer treat everyone
                           equally & fairly
                                                                         33                         57
    Prop 8 was opposed by the League of Women Voters & the
                               CTA
                                                                         30                                    26

        Prop 8 would protect the tax-exempt status of churches           26                               34
        *Significant at the .0005 level in logistic regression analysis




Q49-58 (N=95)                                                       45
         73% of yes voters say there is nothing that could change their mind.
              7% want same sex marriage to be called something else.
                   Some people voted no on Proposition 8 because they believe it’s wrong to deny gay
                   people the ability to get married. Is there anything that could change your mind and
                       lead you to support the freedom to marry for everyone some day? What?)

  If same sex marriage is called something
                    else
                                                       7

               Probably would not change       3

 If church says same sex marriage is okay      3

      If same sex marriage is not taught in
                   schools
                                               2

         If no adverse affects on churches     1

   If family rights to teach in home are not
                     changed
                                               1

                            Miscellaneous          5

                               Don't Know          4

                              No / Nothing                                                73




Q64 N=549                                                      46

				
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