Kick-starting Kyoto Opportunities and barriers facing the

							       Kick-starting Kyoto
Opportunities and barriers facing the international
    agreement to combat climate change.




                 By Joshua Smith
                 SID: 11061140
Overview
   Climate change from science to politics
   Efforts towards a solution
   Obstacles facing implementation
   Political tension leads to heated debate
   Current positions of key players
   Can Kyoto exist without the US?
   Alternative mechanisms
   The importance of adaptation
   Focus on motivation
Climate change in global geopolitics
   “tragedy of the commons”
   Heavily contested issue.
   Man or Mother Nature?
   Setting new records.
   „low probability, high risk‟
   CO2‟s lingering effects. [Figure I]
   Only one option reversible.
Figure I – Aftermath of emissions
The search for a solution
   1992 Rio Earth Summit & the FCCC
   Kyoto Protocol as a remedy.
   Binding targets, exchange mechanisms.
   Goal: 5% below 1990 levels.
   Inclusion and exclusion: Incentives to join?
   Emissions trading
   Compromises at Bonn and Marrakech
Obstacles facing implementation
   55:55 rule
   Legitimate uncertainty in science and more
    pressing developmental needs?
   Scope of problem difficult to verify
   Long-term problem, immediate action.
   Creation of assets vs tax-based solution.
High politics take hold
   Imposition of trade restrictions?
   Corporations, NGOs and special interest groups.
   Commitment or „free riding‟.
   Global North vs Global South. [Figure II]
   Who is the biggest contributor?
   Who is the greatest victim?
   Catch-22 and tentative resolution.
Figure II – Emission volumes
Current positions of key players
   OZ: Heavily dependent on fossil fuels.
    Experience mirrors US. Good for economy?
   ISLANDS: South Pacific Forum and AOSIS
    encourage greater commitment.
   JAPAN: Diplomatic coup.
   RUSSIA: Carbon sink success. Much at stake. To
    ratify?
   EU: Differentiation. Ocean circulation danger.
   OPEC: Considers Rio FCCC sufficient.
United States as a strategic pivot
   4% pop; 20-25% global, 34% Annex I
    emissions.
   Gore and Clinton pave way. Senate blocks.
   Veto status interrupted.
   US risks political isolation on issue.
   Risks and benefits of ratification.
   Positive pragmatism?
Can Kyoto exist without US?
   Technical possibility
   International determination to forge ahead.
   US involvement not necessary, but should
    be encouraged.
Alternative avenues to compliance
   BUSH PLAN:                      States act alone
   Tech + free market              Subsidy reform
   Tax concessions for
    voluntary changes.
                                    Fuel for thought –
                                     Tech solutions.
   Non-binding.
   Economic growth key             Renewable energy
   Investment in                   Efficiency
    renewables, conservation,       Free trade
    fuel cells and forecasting
    technologies.                   Soft power
Importance of evolution
   Goal-setting post 2012.
   Maintaining malleability.
   Tougher penalties in future?
   Direct involvement of corporations?
   Encouraging participation from all major
    emitters, North and South.
   Kyoto not perfect, but effective first step.
THANK YOU!


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