Course Registration Wire Transfer By wire, the information follows: I WOULD LIKE TO REGISTER FOR THE COURSE(S) BELOW Account Name: Decision Systems International Electric Power Bank Name: Wachovia Bank, N.A. AT THE INDICATED LOCATION: Account No.: 2000-15010-296-6 Market Program □ H a n ds - O n L M P -B a s e d M a r k e t O pe r a t i o n ABA Routing No.: 061-000-227 Swift Code: PNBPUS33 □ Hands-On Short-Term Load Forecasting and Applications to Price Forecasting Check Make check payable to: “Decision Systems International.” Please send by airmail, or courier to DSI. ○ Atlanta ○ San Francisco Course Fee Coverage ○ Mr. ○ Miss ○ Mrs. ○ Ms. ○ Dr. ○ Other (write in): Course fees cover: Family Name: ______________________________________ • One copy of course notebook in hard copy and CD • One hour of private consultation of groups of two or First/Middle Name(s): _______________________________ more (or one half hour for individuals) • Daily lunch, continental breakfast, & refreshment breaks Title: _____________________________________________ • DSI Certificate of Participation and NERC and/or IACET Certificates (when applicable) Organization: ______________________________________ • Computer hardware for training at 2 participants per PC Street Address: ____________________________________ Accommodations __________________________________________________ DSI courses are offered at hotels in locations with excellent Hands-on program for power evening dining, recreation and entertainment. In most cases marketers, traders, and State: ______________ Zip (Postal) Code: _____________ blocks of rooms are reserved offering special rates for a limited ISO/RTO market operators time. Also, we may offer several hotel choices to fit your Country : __________________________________________ based on leading simulators by budget. Check our website for reservation details. EPRI and DSI TEL: ____________________________________________ Cancellation Deadlines FAX: _____________________________________________ Deadlines for Participants: Full refund will be provided if cancellation by participant is received no later than four weeks Two Coordinated Courses E-mail: ___________________________________________ prior to course offering. No refund will be given otherwise, i.e. if cancellation is received within the four-week period before INDVIDUAL COURSE FEE course start date, there is no refund. However, a substitute par- • Hands-On LMP-Based Market □ Group Rate (1)/Early Bird (2) $900 (US) ticipant from same organization is allowed. Operation □ Individual Rate/Early Bird (2) $1,000 (US) □ Individual Rate $1,100 (US) □ 2-Courses Discount 10% Cancellation by DSI: Although every attempt is made to offer • Hands-On Short-Term Load a course, DSI reserves the right to cancel a course because of Forecasting and Applications to low registration. Decision to cancel is made four weeks before (1) Group: two or more from same organization Price Forecasting (2) Registration and payment must be received no Total Due: _________ the course offering. DSI’s liability is limited to full refund of later than 4 weeks prior to course starting date. paid registration fees. Decision Systems Inte rnat ional Earn Continuing Education PAYMENT METHODS Credits In-House and Customized Training Credit Card (US Dollars only) In-house training at utility facility: 30 60 P eacht re e Ro ad, NW Em ai l: info@ ds ip o wer .com □ AmEx □ MasterCard □ Visa □ EuroCard □ JCB W eb : w w w. ds ip o w er .c o m • Maximum number of participants: 16 DECISION SYSTEMS A tlan ta, G A 30 305 , U SA • Customer provides one PC for every two participants. DSI will load Ph one: 4 04 -5 04-3 65 2 Name Shown on Card: ______________________________ INTERNATIONAL and test software. Alternatively DSI provides the PCs for the duration F ax: 404 -50 4-36 51 Card No.: _________________________________________ of the training at nominal additional charge for shipping and handling. • Cost: $5,000 per day of training exclusive of travel costs of speakers. Expiration:_________________________________________ Sui te 14 62 Atlanta, Georgia, USA Customized training using utility’s power system network and system: www.dsipower.com Authorizing Signature: _______________________________ • Contact DSI OTS Service Center for details (firstname.lastname@example.org) Info@dsipower.com Hands-On LMP-Based Hands-On Short-Term Load Forecasting Program Goals Speaker and Program Developer Market Operation & Applications to Price Forecasting This 2-course program is intended to immerse the par- Dr. A. S. Debs: Power system control center and power ticipants in learning about power markets by playing Day 1 Day 1 systems expert, researcher; business leader market games themselves using two advanced simula- • Introduction to LMP-Based Markets: LMP • Introduction to Short-Term Load Forecast- Dr. Debs is President and founder of DSI, designer and de- tion packages. The full understanding of power mar- and its justification, application to congestion ing: Requirements for effective STLF, review veloper of DSI’s training, consulting and software programs kets requires that any stakeholder be proficient in three management and bidding strategies, PJM vs basic areas: of basic methods like similar-day and regression for the power industry, and has spent his 36 professional MISO LMP’s. [Presentation] models, discussion of strength and weaknesses years in industry, academia and research organizations. He 1. Physical risk management • STEMS Risk Scenario: Rescheduling options of various forecasting models [Presentation] has focused a great deal of his attention on control centers, 2. Financial risk management for a meshed network. [Exercise] system planning, utility restructuring and system forecasting. • Use of Artificial Neural Networks in STLF: He obtained all of his degrees at MIT (BS, MS and Ph. D), 3. Forecasting future uncertainty • Contract vs Physical Paths: The Interchange Basic ANN Structure, back propagation was the key initial developer of the renowned Georgia Tech These areas of concern are like the three legs of a stool, Distribution Calculator (IDC), impacts of Point- method, reasons for effectiveness in forecasting electric power program, and is the author of the textbook, a stool that would fall down if one leg were missing! to-Point (PTP) Contracts on the physical paths, [Presentation] Modern Power Systems Control and Operation. However, knowledge of how the loop flow, Transmission Load Relief (TLR) • EPRI ANNSTLF: Development history, struc- power network and system works [Presentation] ture of the program, illustration of functions Program Dates and Locations is important to predict the uncer- • STEMS Risk Scenario: Value-at-risk calcula- [Demonstration] (For full details, visit www.dsipower.com) tainty in several critical parame- tions considering load forecast uncertainty • Updating Procedures on Hourly and Daily ters that include network conges- [Exercise] Basis: Basic updating procedures, manual op- Hands-On Short- Hands-On tion. This course uses forecasting • Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP): Market tions for load reshaping, sensitivity analysis, Courses LMP-Based Term Load Forecast- knowledge as a starter, but moves designs using LMP marginal units, sensitivity ing & Applications to forward to show how one can confidence intervals [Exercise] Market Opera- Price Forecasting factors, Optimal Power Flow (OPF) as the tool • Forecaster Performance Evaluation and Im- Venues tion translate this knowledge into spe- to determine LMP’s. [Presentation] Locations cific risk parameters for risk man- provement: Data analysis options, what consti- • STEMS Risk Scenario: The OPF as an operat- tutes good performance, determination of causes agement in the areas of conges- Atlanta, GA October October tion, competitive behavior, and ing tool, economic rescheduling using OPF, of error [Exercise] 23 & 24, 2006 25 & 26, 2006 bidding strategies Volt/VAR control using OPF [Exercise] Day 2 Day 2 • Short-Term Electricity Market Simulator The first course considers starts with a thorough discus- San Francisco November November • Risk Analysis for Congestion Management: (STEMS) Basics: Forward market administra- 7 & 8, 2006 9 & 10, 2006 sion of locational marginal prices (LMP’s), their justifi- Probabilistic factors, competition factors, bid- cation, use and flavors. Settlements, based on LMP’s tion system, security-constrained unit commit- ding strategies and their impacts on CM, overall ment, bidding and price prediction and FTR’s (Firm Transmission Rights) and other instru- ments are used as the starting tools in understanding CM risk characterization for short and long term [Presentation] network and system impacts. The second course tack- analysis [Presentation] • STEMS/ANNSTLF Scenario: Working with les the issue of forecasting in a market environment • STEMS Risk Scenario: Risk impact of demand STEMS, submission of bids, review of results, Intended Audience For Each Course whereby the goal is to predict and control uncertainty. forecast uncertainty; risk impact of competitive determination of LMP’s for day-ahead and real- It turns out that artificial neural networks can do a great bidding; overall risk characterization [Exercise] • Hands-On LMP-Based Market Operation: time markets. [Exercise] Traders, System Operators, Marketers and Ana- job in forecasting — if done correctly! • Mitigation Against Risk: Control of forecast • STEMS/ANNSTLF Scenario: Prediction of lysts The main tools for making this a success is reliance on errors; modeling of competition; Financial price spikes – scenario assumptions, bid curves Transmission Rights (FTR) [Presentation] • Hands-On STLF and Applications to Price Fore- proven simulation and analysis software by EPRI and in anticipation of shortages, illustration of com- casting: System Operators, Market Designers, DSI. Two packages to be used during the course are: • STEMS Risk Scenario: Identification of fore- petitive behavior to yield price spikes [Exercise] Traders and Analysts 1. ANNSTLF — Artificial Neural Networks Short- cast error sensitivities; identification of com- • STEMS/ANNSTLF Scenario: Advantages of Term Load Forecaster by EPRI petitor’s bidding strategy [Exercise] good forecasts – scenario setup whereby some 2. STEMS — Short-Term Electricity Market Simula- • STEMS Risk Scenario: Optimal valuation of traders have better forecasts than others, bid- DSI is a certified provider of continuing education FTR option considering both, physical and ding game, running of the market and prediction credits by the International Association of Continu- Participants will each earn 12 CEH Credits probabilities factors [Exercise] of prices [Exercise] ing Education & Training (IACET) and the North (when applicable) and/or 1.2 CEU Credits • Summation, Feedback and Discussion. • Review, Feedback and Discussion American Electric Reliability Council (NERC). DSI also is a value-added developer and implementer of EPRI’s STEMS, ANNSTLF and OTS.