Networld+Interop 94 Tokyo 27-29 July 1994 1 Keynote Address The Present and the Future of the Internet: Five faces by Anthony-Michael Rutkowski Executive Director Internet Society Seven weeks ago on the way to the Internet Society's economic growth and contours of the "New Econ- annual international networking conference in omy." Much of the new growth is coming from many Prague, I visited Geneva to meet with various inter- thousands of small, fleet-footed new companies. At national organization officials and give a seminar on the same time, many of the old giants are being Internet. It was envisioned as a small gathering for a dramatically reshaped by young entrepreneurs who few interested staff at one of my former employers, are in the vanguard of a productivity revolution that the telco world's International Telecommunication is reshaping the economy. "With the aid of new Union (ITU). technology and new forms of corporate organization, they are finding ways to do things faster, better and As it turned out, news of the subject had migrated cheaper, revitalizing entire industries and redefining about Geneva and the event became three separate the terms of economic competition at the same time." sessions of nearly 300 people each in the largest con- ference room at the ITU. It attracted people from On this Monday, the 30th Meeting of the Society's virtually every global organization in the city, includ- internet standards body - the IETF - began in Toronto. ing 30 different foreign missions and 6 ambassadors This body conducts its work almost continually on who came and participated actively. The Pakistani the Internet and physically gathers three times a year ambassador - who is also the chair of the UN - typically bringing together more than 500 people at Humanitarian Affairs Committee and provides his the meeting location and multicasting to more than Internet address on his business card - addressed the 600 additional sites around the world. More than just audience stating that this was one of the most impor- developing standards, the IETF actually is a tant things now occurring for developing countries. sophisticated technology transfer engine in which At the same time, the ITU itself announced that it had creative developers in academic, research, and become the largest Internet access provider in business environments are joined in a kind of robust Switzerland and its traffic was increasing at 20 per- creative "soup" in which they imagine, write code, cent per month. criticize, test, and very rapidly scale new information tools and services free from stifling formalities and The Society's own INET conference at Prague more positions. than doubled over the past year and attracted 1200 people from 105 different nations. Billionaire Wall And now here at Interop - Tokyo, we witness the Street investor George Soros in his keynote address to event that more than any other has come to represent the conference, called the Internet a critical com- the rapidly growing one trillion Yen internetworking ponent for the Open Society which was the basis for marketplace and the enormous networked Informa- political and economic stability as well as organiza- tion Infrastructure that is now diffusing into busi- tional and individual success and self-fulfillment in nesses, governments, and homes around the world. the 21st century. Indeed, at Interop Las Vegas in May, Microsoft rep- resentatives said that PC technology has diffused A few weeks ago, in reviewing the "metrics" of the faster than any other form of electronic system, and at Internet at the Society, we found that all measures of about the same time they announced that the next the network and its use continued to scale inexorably: version of PC Windows would ship with the Internet ever more connected countries, gateways, networks, Protocol. hosts, users, services and traffic. A network analyst recently noted that if one of those services - the World Wide Web - continues its traffic increase at present Five Faces of Internet rates, it will exceed the world's digitized voice traffic These different experiences over the past few weeks in three years. We are now watching a global symbolize what I call "five faces of Internet" and internetworking revolution scale in near real-time. comprise the primary focus of my presentation today. Every thirty minutes, another network connects. Internet is much more than just a new kind of At the beginning of the month, the Washington Post network for transporting data. Rather it is a broad carried the latest in a series of articles dealing with 2 Networld+Interop 94 Tokyo 27-29 July 1994 "redefining paradigm" - in other words, a fundamen- networks, distributed network management and tal transformation that encompasses: applications, and the global Internet became univer- building information infrastructure from the bot- sally implemented. Massive bottom-up infrastructure tom-up; happened, proliferated, and a new paradigm prevails. a robust global mesh for directly linking billions of This has been a remarkable decade-long learning computers and thousands of computer processes experience about what information infrastructure is on whatever telecom and computer platforms that all about, and in nurturing its development. It's exist anywhere in the world; discovery time in cyberspace, and we are constantly learning about what works and what doesn't. This is a means for open collaboration in the hyper not to say that all top-down activities are frivolous - development and evolution of new technologies no more than asserting that all bottom up activity will and applications; produce meaningful infrastructure. Similarly there is transforming the structure, methods, and indi- a lot more to information infrastructure than just the vidual skills within enterprises, institutions, and Internet. professions of all kinds; This "face of the Internet" provides some invaluable a huge, rapidly growing market sector for inter- models and lessons about key components of net-related products and services. national and global information infrastructure and where we are heading in the future. The most 1. Bottom-up Information Infrastructure prominent of these lessons is that bottom-up infra- The last decade had profoundly transformed the structure succeeds most efficiently and spectacularly! way we conceptualize and create information infra- structure. The "old world" was oriented around 2. The Internet Global Mesh highly structured monoliths of the telco and early Constant Evolution: Three Stages computer worlds that were planned and operated by The Internet and internet technology has been grow- big government and corporations. The basic plans ing and evolving constantly since its inception in Vint flowed "top-down" from millions of hours of huge Cerf's imagination and first articulation more than 20 formal meetings and literal mountains of paper which years ago on the back of an envelope in San purported to chart the future of information Francisco. At the outset, it had multiple facets that infrastructure for decades to come. They provided a addressed real needs: a means to share information plethora of abstractions that no one quite understood, system resources across multiple diverse platforms, a under the aegis of never quite defined nor accepted highly robust self-healing network that could operate concepts like ISDN, OSI, and next generation across almost any medium to survive nuclear holo- mainframes. Enormous directed monies were to flow caust, and a way to bring together experts spread into these projects pursued by national monoliths, across the world in "collaboratories" to create, inno- and trickle-down information infrastructure would vate, improve and produce in many different research eventually settle into place. areas. There is no intent to denigrate these top-down It is now into the third stage of that evolution. The efforts or the many people who were involved. first stage was the early years under the aegis of the Indeed, several years of my own career and those of US DOD ARPA and the province of a relatively small many colleagues were invested in these efforts. closed community. Those people not only developed However, top-down just did not happen as planned. the technology, but the cooperative mechanisms and Instead, a combination of VLSI, PCs, workstations, institutions that allowed it to scale and for further Local Area Networks, routers, and elegant user innovation to occur. The genius of it all can still be friendly software found an enormous marketplace appreciated at major Internet meetings which that motivated individual initiative and investments. typically bring together a significant cross-section of At the same time, long haul transport technology world's most highly motivated and innovative offered increasingly cheap bandwidth, and national computer networking communities in every country. governments allowed facilities-based competition among telecoms and deregulated value-added serv- Following DARPA's divestiture of the network and ices. Under combined pressures from rapid techno- the technologies in the mid-80s, the second stage logical change, competition, and affordable new unfolded. It represented a period of major develop- systems, the world of information infrastructure ment by: 1) vendors for a growing enterprise internet began a speedy transformation. market, 2) the USA National Science Foundation, NASA, and Dept of Energy and their counterparts in At just the right time, robust TCP/IP technologies other countries who scaled the network to support were available to serve as the universal intelligent open global academic and research activities, and 3) interface among computers. As a result, enterprise early innovators in the business sector who began Networld+Interop 94 Tokyo 27-29 July 1994 3 providing public access services and using the capa- net, Mark Lottor has been executing an Internet Walk bilities. Interop itself was a key part of this second script over several weeks to produce an actual list of stage as it fostered massive investment in private every machine reachable. The results are generally open systems infrastructure. released every three months. As of the end of The third stage is now unfolding as almost every- December 1993, the number of hosts was 2.217 mil- one, everywhere who provides, uses, promotes, or lion. The count increased 69 percent over 1993. funds information systems and infrastructure Lottor's hosts reachable dimension of the Internet is becomes involved in the growth and use of the Inter- regarded as particularly significant because of the net, its technologies, and applications. If the first Internet's most basic function is providing connectiv- stage took us to 2000 hosts over the first ten years, ity among machines. It is also used in estimating the and the second state scaled the connectivity from number of Internet users based on a 10 to 1 ratio of 2000 to 1 million over eight years, the third state of users per host - realizing that this is an enormously Internet growth is now marked by host counts that variable ratio that encompasses everything from the will likely proceed from 1 million to 100 million over PC on someone's desk to a gateway host supporting the next five years. The growth of the attached net- millions of users on some other network or commer- works is now publicly announced every three days, cial service. and we are literally watching it grow before our eyes. Internet traffic is also highly important in under- Dimensioning Internet standing usage patterns among countries and among the hundreds of technologies employed as services on The Internet is generally dimensioned two different the Internet. Traffic on the largest backbones has ways. The core portion consists of the subset of been doubling every year and for 1994 seems likely to registered internetworks that are known to have IP triple. Many smaller local backbones have experi- connectivity among themselves; while the larger enced regular traffic increases of 20 percent per Matrix Internet popularized by John Quarterman month. Outside the USA, many nations have experi- consists of the core Internet plus all the networks enced initial annual traffic increases measured in the known to be connected to it by some lowest common thousands of percent. denominator application like messaging. At the individual service level, it's worth noting that The Core Internet and its metrics files transfers account for largest amount of traffic As of the end of May, there were 435,760 allocated (around 37 percent currently), with messaging total- network addresses, 47,846 registered at the global ing only around 18 percent. The most interesting Network Information Center, and about 35,000 new services from a metrics standpoint are the known to have connectivity among themselves. For browsing variety like World Wide Web and Gopher. the last several years, the most widely used backbone WWW in particular has grown spectacularly to ac- network - the NSFNet - has provided a useful refer- count now for 6.1 percent of the entire NSFNet back- ence point for making consistent measurements. bone traffic and growing at the unprecedented rate of Total networks increased at the rate of 160 percent 341,000 percent in 1993. New Web servers have been last year; 183 percent outside the USA. As of 1 June, added at the rate of 12 per day over the past three IP traffic is being routed to networks in 81 different months, and each can support many imple- nations. It's known that the European CERN back- mentations. This currently amounts to almost a bone usually sees more reachable networks, and with terabyte a month of Web traffic. If this growth pat- the emergence of commercial public Internet back- tern persists, some have calculated that in three years bones as well as the termination of NSFNet next year, it will exceed the total world voice communication the total number is likely to increase even faster. traffic. Another major trend - in addition to globalization The Matrix Internet and the rapid increases - is revealed in analyzing the The core Internet's massive size, high performance, kinds of new networks attaching. Most are commer- and open connectivity has proved a magnet to nearly cial in nature. every other kind of computer network. As a result, Specific focus on both the Asia-Pacific and European many other large and extensive networks have regions shows that about a year ago, the number of attached themselves to the core Internet's periphery. networks in most countries with significant GNPs This includes networks based on specific platforms began to scale significantly with about 1500 like BITNET, FidoNet, AppleLink, Minitel, and UUCP connected networks in each country. The trend networks, as well as specific application networks for seems unabated. Email - for which there are numerous examples like In addition to dimensioning the Internet in terms of X.400, AT&T mail, MCIMail, SprintMail, networks, it is also possible to do so by computer CompuServe, etc. hosts reachable. Since the earliest days of the Inter- 4 Networld+Interop 94 Tokyo 27-29 July 1994 These peripheral networks create a larger Matrix process of developing running, standardized code Internet that currently reaches 154 countries, and through the Internet has been highly successful. provide many millions of people with lowest com- It is the more general user populations, however, mon denominator Email connectivity. In this capac- who are embracing the tools in vast numbers across ity, the Internet is truly the world's universal elec- the planet. The enormity of the implications are just tronic messaging backbone. beginning to be understood. For example, it's asserted that 80 percent of all the scientists who ever 3. Open Collaboration and Development lived are on the Internet today! And in each of these Just as the Internet is technologically a virtual matrix fields, the people "networked" constitute the majority among up to 4 billion computers and 64,000 process of early adopters and innovators. ports on each of those computers, so is it also a matrix among 20-30 million people who are directly or 4. Transforming Enterprises, Institutions, indirectly using those computers and processes. This and Professions is an enormously empowering capability that allows The effects of large-scale networking of enterprises, almost instant creation of workgroups, discussion institutions, and people are now being realized. groups, and audiences of all kinds. The capability Certainly traditional barriers whether they are transcends time zones, national and organizational reporting hierarchies, institutions, country or geog- boundaries, and in the near future even language. In raphy are being obliterated. There is also a certain its ultimate extrapolation, it is the ultimate open "compelling" effect that beyond a certain point pro- society where anyone, anywhere can provide or motes ever larger numbers of people to become receive any information to anyone within seconds. networked. Not having an Internet mail address From its inception, the Internet was intended as today has become a major liability in many busi- more than just a computer network, but as a means of nesses and professions. facilitating collaboration and development at great The result has been to transform old institutions, speed - sometimes described as technology transfer create new network based enterprises, and bring among disparate groups with different strengths like about programmes to implement these transforma- academics, industry researchers, and business entre- tions. The best known of the latter is the Clinton preneurs. This activity has taken two forms: 1) Administration's Reinventing Government initiative. research and development of new distributed net- However, on a smaller scale, efforts are now under- work techniques and applications, and 2) innumer- way in Canada, Chile, Argentina, France, and Poland able user populations employing the Internet and its - as well as many international organizations. technologies as tools to significantly enhance their Some major older corporations like IBM and Chrys- specific professional activity or pursuit. ler have embarked on well-known efforts to get An entire new engineering and research discipline Internet technologies introduced among their has been cut out of whole cloth - distributed employees to purposely break down both internal autonomous networking - complete with its own and external barriers. In an increasingly competitive development dynamics and methods. Mosaic, httpd, environment, lacking network connectivity and Gopher, Archie, Veronica, Collage, Eudora, POP, employees with skill sets to effective use the network SMTP, Netfind, Knowbots, NFS, NNTP, VAT, and tools, is a major liability that's quickly reflected in SNMP are examples of some of the more popular either diminishing market share or lost opportunities. client-server products to come out of the Internet An entirely new and potentially massive new field is innovation "soup." now emerging around the Internet and distributed With amazing rapidity, ideas for a new application networking. Getting connectivity is only one com- or service get vetted on a discussion group or at IETF ponent. More significant (and perhaps more difficult) "BOFs" and proceed through a standards working is obtaining and retraining people to effectively use group. At the same time, the code is placed on a these tools in many different enterprises. This network server. In the process, innumerable users daunting task involves not only equipment, but cul- employ the code, grow the market, refine the code, tures and attitudes. And, it also pervades every office and a large commercial market emerges in a matter of in a corporation or institution, from the CEO to the months that is finely tailored to end user needs. Even average staff member in every department. commercial proprietary code is being distributed on Not suprisingly, there is a focus on developing these the network to test and grow the marketplace - as is skills now at the elementary and secondary school the case currently with 32-bit versions of Microsoft levels so that children at an early age are able to Windows operating system code being distributed comfortably use and create information on com- concurrently with new versions of Mosaic. This puters, to discover and make available networked information resources, and to collaborate seamlessly Networld+Interop 94 Tokyo 27-29 July 1994 5 across networks with their peers. These are the sur- activity on the Internet. However, this is not likely to vival skills of rapidly emerging global internetworked displace "free information" given the ever increasing environment. use of the Internet by public institutions, for com- mercial public relations, or just the propensity of 5. A Huge Market Sector human beings to share their own information. The estimated 20-30 million users on the Internet Ubiquity constitute an ideal market. The users are predomi- Other major indicators include both the ubiquity of nantly young, middle to upper class, well-educated, the access, as well as the ease of setup and use by and highly motivated. As the number of Internet ordinary people. Access involves the diversity of the users grows another two orders of magnitude, these media being employed (such as local dialup, characteristics are likely to remain, in addition to freephone dialup, CATV LANs, N-ISDN, and VSATs), becoming ever more global. and the ever-expanding number of service providers - The Internet provides an exceptionally low cost especially major carriers and local resellers. Resellers mechanism for interacting with this audience. This are especially important in this phase of internet interaction not only includes public relations and evolution because of the frequent significant level of advertising, but testing of target audiences, sales, and interaction with customers in using the technology. customer support. However, some of the newly emerging software for PC environments is so object oriented and self The principal major caveat concerns the strong tra- configuring that only minimal computer skills are ditions for propriety and privacy that rule out mass required. mailing or other intrusive techniques. Such miscon- duct or fraudulent behavior can also propagate very What Modulates Internet Development? quickly. In the face of all these positive indicators, however, it The Future is useful to consider what kinds of conditions result in the growth or stifling of internet developments. Over These different facets of Internet will assure an the past few years, some specific information on exciting and constantly evolving future. Internet diffusion has become evident. It seems meaningless to talk about "what's after the Plainly, many external conditions modulate imple- Internet" anymore than to talk about what's after the mentation and use. For example, available capital telephone. As long as we have computers speaking for investment is always a major factor with any new to other computers via distributed networks, we will technology. Even with basic telephone systems, the have internets. Indeed, a hundred years from now, correlation of telephone lines versus national GNP is history may well record the emergence and imple- almost a straight line. However, the diffusion of mentation of an Internet protocol as a profound internet technologies, networks, and use require turning point in the evolution of human communica- conditions that are really rather unique and go well tion - of much greater significance than the creation of beyond just capital investment to a host of factors that the printing press. collectively are sometimes called "culture." No other form of human communication other than A threshold condition is the freedom introduce and actual meetings allow people to actually interact with operate Internets without significant governmental or each other in a collaborative fashion in short time- institutional impediments. The Internet consists scales. It is this capability of rapid, large scale, low- almost entirely of tens of thousands of private net- cost interaction of people and sharing of information works all constructed and operated by largely private that are unique Internet properties - which have initiative. The Internet functions very effectively on a profound implications across a broad spectrum of global scale through a number of multilateral and human activities. bilateral agreements among backbone service providers and end-user networks. Important Indicators The Internet is a creature of the unregulated, highly It's difficult to predict where all the different facets of dynamic computer networking field - not the tradi- the Internet are leading us. In the near-term, we can tional regulated monopoly telecom environment. The look at events currently underway to chart likely Internet does best where the environments are subject developments in the coming months. to little or no regulation of any kind. Business on the net Internet monopoly environments are invariably the Certainly the many initiatives using applied encryp- worse kind - being antithetical to the very concept of tion technologies and dove-tailing with pre-existing what the Internet is all about. Such environments are EDI work, points to all kinds of business-related also contrary to the Annex on Telecommunications in the new General Agreement on Trade in Services 6 Networld+Interop 94 Tokyo 27-29 July 1994 (GATS) and the appended schedules of specific The next few years will likely witness nearly every commitments by 96 signatory countries plus the computer in the world being potentially connected to European Union. These provisions elaborate on an internet. This seems well within the realm of some of the desirable conditions needed for Internet feasibility. However, what numbers are actually fertility, namely access to markets and cost-oriented connected to the Internet or accessible - through the underlying transport circuits. Internet and at what bandwidths or time periods - However, even in competitive environments, some depends largely on the available underlying infra- regulatory authorities have a penchant for becoming structure and cost of service. involved in the operations of Internet providers - Bandwidth seems destined in the long-term to ap- either reviewing business plans or operational proach zero within and among most metropolitan agreements. Given the incredibly fast changing areas of the world, but the increasing complexities of operational dynamics of the Internet scene, such managing ever larger numbers of Internet networks intrusive regulation is inevitably stifling, as backbone is going to drive operation and maintenance costs up. providers increase in number and move from bilat- The result for end users may mirror the computer eral to multilateral arrangements among themselves world where the performance just keeps on to lessen the complexities and enhance ubiquitous increasing at relatively constant cost. In fact, the connectivity. evolution of computers and computer networks is Other major diffusion factors include the cost of sure to proceed hand in hand. And collective inno- underlying transport bandwidth and the ability to vative Internet genius will doubtlessly produce an acquire current-technology computers and software endless stream of imaginative applications and tools. at low-cost. These factors go both to the national It is at the human and institutional levels that major competitive conditions for basic telecom services and unknowns arise - but also offer the greatest promise. oversight of the pricing practices of dominant carri- The autonomous, heterogeneous, flat model of the ers. Internet seems intrinsically a good one. It will be Dominant carriers in most countries often attempt to constant discovery time in Cyberspace, but a world of charge prices for underlying circuit capacity that are shared minds that transcends the accidental orders of magnitude greater than the actual costs - boundaries of history, the distance of geography, the principally in a misguided attempt to force customers machinations of institutions, and the mischief of to use the carrier's own value added networks and manipulation, is potentially one filled with discovery, technologies, and to prevent competition. The great fulfillment and fascination for all peoples - indi- circuit price disparities between Europe and the USA, vidually and collectively. for example, prompted the European Nuclear The Internet Society as the international Research Center (CERN) two years ago to publicly organization for the Internet is dedicated to help document these practices and plead for a change. make this happen. Because end user computers and peripheral hard- ware are such a fundamental component of Internet growth and development, national practices which heavily tax and restrict computer imports and use, also have a major adverse effect on Internet diffusion. Restrictions or taxes on the use of modems, for example, have widespread negative effects. The Challenges and Promises No electronic network mesh has consistently grown on the scale at the speed of the Internet. As a result, it has throughout its history been constantly challenged to develop new technologies, standards, and administrative techniques to provide greater band- width and additional services to more users through ever more complex architectures. However, each order of magnitude scaling becomes more difficult. Problems associated with addressing and security seem largely transitory - with a combination of tech- nology, new statndards, and administration provid- ing effective solutions.