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					    Networld+Interop 94 Tokyo 27-29 July 1994                                                                      1


                                                Keynote Address
                        The Present and the Future of the Internet:
                                       Five faces
                                         by Anthony-Michael Rutkowski
                                                  Executive Director
                                                   Internet Society

 Seven weeks ago on the way to the Internet Society's         economic growth and contours of the "New Econ-
annual international networking conference in                 omy." Much of the new growth is coming from many
Prague, I visited Geneva to meet with various inter-          thousands of small, fleet-footed new companies. At
national organization officials and give a seminar on         the same time, many of the old giants are being
Internet. It was envisioned as a small gathering for a        dramatically reshaped by young entrepreneurs who
few interested staff at one of my former employers,           are in the vanguard of a productivity revolution that
the telco world's International Telecommunication             is reshaping the economy. "With the aid of new
Union (ITU).                                                  technology and new forms of corporate organization,
                                                              they are finding ways to do things faster, better and
 As it turned out, news of the subject had migrated
                                                              cheaper, revitalizing entire industries and redefining
about Geneva and the event became three separate
                                                              the terms of economic competition at the same time."
sessions of nearly 300 people each in the largest con-
ference room at the ITU. It attracted people from               On this Monday, the 30th Meeting of the Society's
virtually every global organization in the city, includ-      internet standards body - the IETF - began in Toronto.
ing 30 different foreign missions and 6 ambassadors           This body conducts its work almost continually on
who came and participated actively. The Pakistani             the Internet and physically gathers three times a year
ambassador - who is also the chair of the UN                  - typically bringing together more than 500 people at
Humanitarian Affairs Committee and provides his               the meeting location and multicasting to more than
Internet address on his business card - addressed the         600 additional sites around the world. More than just
audience stating that this was one of the most impor-         developing standards, the IETF actually is a
tant things now occurring for developing countries.           sophisticated technology transfer engine in which
At the same time, the ITU itself announced that it had        creative developers in academic, research, and
become the largest Internet access provider in                business environments are joined in a kind of robust
Switzerland and its traffic was increasing at 20 per-         creative "soup" in which they imagine, write code,
cent per month.                                               criticize, test, and very rapidly scale new information
                                                              tools and services free from stifling formalities and
  The Society's own INET conference at Prague more
                                                              positions.
than doubled over the past year and attracted 1200
people from 105 different nations. Billionaire Wall             And now here at Interop - Tokyo, we witness the
Street investor George Soros in his keynote address to        event that more than any other has come to represent
the conference, called the Internet a critical com-           the rapidly growing one trillion Yen internetworking
ponent for the Open Society which was the basis for           marketplace and the enormous networked Informa-
political and economic stability as well as organiza-         tion Infrastructure that is now diffusing into busi-
tional and individual success and self-fulfillment in         nesses, governments, and homes around the world.
the 21st century.                                             Indeed, at Interop Las Vegas in May, Microsoft rep-
                                                              resentatives said that PC technology has diffused
 A few weeks ago, in reviewing the "metrics" of the
                                                              faster than any other form of electronic system, and at
Internet at the Society, we found that all measures of
                                                              about the same time they announced that the next
the network and its use continued to scale inexorably:
                                                              version of PC Windows would ship with the Internet
ever more connected countries, gateways, networks,
                                                              Protocol.
hosts, users, services and traffic. A network analyst
recently noted that if one of those services - the World
Wide Web - continues its traffic increase at present           Five Faces of Internet
rates, it will exceed the world's digitized voice traffic
                                                               These different experiences over the past few weeks
in three years. We are now watching a global
                                                              symbolize what I call "five faces of Internet" and
internetworking revolution scale in near real-time.
                                                              comprise the primary focus of my presentation today.
Every thirty minutes, another network connects.
                                                              Internet is much more than just a new kind of
 At the beginning of the month, the Washington Post           network for transporting data. Rather it is a broad
carried the latest in a series of articles dealing with
 2 Networld+Interop 94 Tokyo 27-29 July 1994


"redefining paradigm" - in other words, a fundamen-       networks, distributed network management and
tal transformation that encompasses:                      applications, and the global Internet became univer-
 building information infrastructure from the bot-       sally implemented. Massive bottom-up infrastructure
   tom-up;                                                happened, proliferated, and a new paradigm prevails.
 a robust global mesh for directly linking billions of     This has been a remarkable decade-long learning
  computers and thousands of computer processes           experience about what information infrastructure is
  on whatever telecom and computer platforms that         all about, and in nurturing its development. It's
  exist anywhere in the world;                            discovery time in cyberspace, and we are constantly
                                                          learning about what works and what doesn't. This is
 a means for open collaboration in the hyper
                                                          not to say that all top-down activities are frivolous -
  development and evolution of new technologies
                                                          no more than asserting that all bottom up activity will
  and applications;
                                                          produce meaningful infrastructure. Similarly there is
 transforming the structure, methods, and indi-          a lot more to information infrastructure than just the
  vidual skills within enterprises, institutions, and     Internet.
  professions of all kinds;
                                                           This "face of the Internet" provides some invaluable
 a huge, rapidly growing market sector for inter-        models and lessons about key components of
  net-related products and services.                      national and global information infrastructure and
                                                          where we are heading in the future. The most
1. Bottom-up Information Infrastructure                   prominent of these lessons is that bottom-up infra-
  The last decade had profoundly transformed the          structure succeeds most efficiently and spectacularly!
way we conceptualize and create information infra-
structure. The "old world" was oriented around            2. The Internet Global Mesh
highly structured monoliths of the telco and early         Constant Evolution: Three Stages
computer worlds that were planned and operated by
                                                           The Internet and internet technology has been grow-
big government and corporations. The basic plans
                                                          ing and evolving constantly since its inception in Vint
flowed "top-down" from millions of hours of huge
                                                          Cerf's imagination and first articulation more than 20
formal meetings and literal mountains of paper which
                                                          years ago on the back of an envelope in San
purported to chart the future of information
                                                          Francisco. At the outset, it had multiple facets that
infrastructure for decades to come. They provided a
                                                          addressed real needs: a means to share information
plethora of abstractions that no one quite understood,
                                                          system resources across multiple diverse platforms, a
under the aegis of never quite defined nor accepted
                                                          highly robust self-healing network that could operate
concepts like ISDN, OSI, and next generation
                                                          across almost any medium to survive nuclear holo-
mainframes. Enormous directed monies were to flow
                                                          caust, and a way to bring together experts spread
into these projects pursued by national monoliths,
                                                          across the world in "collaboratories" to create, inno-
and trickle-down information infrastructure would
                                                          vate, improve and produce in many different research
eventually settle into place.
                                                          areas.
  There is no intent to denigrate these top-down
                                                            It is now into the third stage of that evolution. The
efforts or the many people who were involved.
                                                          first stage was the early years under the aegis of the
Indeed, several years of my own career and those of
                                                          US DOD ARPA and the province of a relatively small
many colleagues were invested in these efforts.
                                                          closed community. Those people not only developed
However, top-down just did not happen as planned.
                                                          the technology, but the cooperative mechanisms and
Instead, a combination of VLSI, PCs, workstations,
                                                          institutions that allowed it to scale and for further
Local Area Networks, routers, and elegant user
                                                          innovation to occur. The genius of it all can still be
friendly software found an enormous marketplace
                                                          appreciated at major Internet meetings which
that motivated individual initiative and investments.
                                                          typically bring together a significant cross-section of
At the same time, long haul transport technology
                                                          world's most highly motivated and innovative
offered increasingly cheap bandwidth, and national
                                                          computer networking communities in every country.
governments allowed facilities-based competition
among telecoms and deregulated value-added serv-            Following DARPA's divestiture of the network and
ices. Under combined pressures from rapid techno-         the technologies in the mid-80s, the second stage
logical change, competition, and affordable new           unfolded. It represented a period of major develop-
systems, the world of information infrastructure          ment by: 1) vendors for a growing enterprise internet
began a speedy transformation.                            market, 2) the USA National Science Foundation,
                                                          NASA, and Dept of Energy and their counterparts in
 At just the right time, robust TCP/IP technologies
                                                          other countries who scaled the network to support
were available to serve as the universal intelligent
                                                          open global academic and research activities, and 3)
interface among computers. As a result, enterprise
                                                          early innovators in the business sector who began
    Networld+Interop 94 Tokyo 27-29 July 1994                                                                   3


providing public access services and using the capa-     net, Mark Lottor has been executing an Internet Walk
bilities. Interop itself was a key part of this second   script over several weeks to produce an actual list of
stage as it fostered massive investment in private       every machine reachable. The results are generally
open systems infrastructure.                             released every three months. As of the end of
 The third stage is now unfolding as almost every-       December 1993, the number of hosts was 2.217 mil-
one, everywhere who provides, uses, promotes, or         lion. The count increased 69 percent over 1993.
funds information systems and infrastructure             Lottor's hosts reachable dimension of the Internet is
becomes involved in the growth and use of the Inter-     regarded as particularly significant because of the
net, its technologies, and applications. If the first    Internet's most basic function is providing connectiv-
stage took us to 2000 hosts over the first ten years,    ity among machines. It is also used in estimating the
and the second state scaled the connectivity from        number of Internet users based on a 10 to 1 ratio of
2000 to 1 million over eight years, the third state of   users per host - realizing that this is an enormously
Internet growth is now marked by host counts that        variable ratio that encompasses everything from the
will likely proceed from 1 million to 100 million over   PC on someone's desk to a gateway host supporting
the next five years. The growth of the attached net-     millions of users on some other network or commer-
works is now publicly announced every three days,        cial service.
and we are literally watching it grow before our eyes.     Internet traffic is also highly important in under-
 Dimensioning Internet                                   standing usage patterns among countries and among
                                                         the hundreds of technologies employed as services on
 The Internet is generally dimensioned two different
                                                         the Internet. Traffic on the largest backbones has
ways. The core portion consists of the subset of
                                                         been doubling every year and for 1994 seems likely to
registered internetworks that are known to have IP
                                                         triple. Many smaller local backbones have experi-
connectivity among themselves; while the larger
                                                         enced regular traffic increases of 20 percent per
Matrix Internet popularized by John Quarterman
                                                         month. Outside the USA, many nations have experi-
consists of the core Internet plus all the networks
                                                         enced initial annual traffic increases measured in the
known to be connected to it by some lowest common
                                                         thousands of percent.
denominator application like messaging.
                                                           At the individual service level, it's worth noting that
 The Core Internet and its metrics
                                                         files transfers account for largest amount of traffic
 As of the end of May, there were 435,760 allocated      (around 37 percent currently), with messaging total-
network addresses, 47,846 registered at the global       ing only around 18 percent. The most interesting
Network Information Center, and about 35,000             new services from a metrics standpoint are the
known to have connectivity among themselves. For         browsing variety like World Wide Web and Gopher.
the last several years, the most widely used backbone    WWW in particular has grown spectacularly to ac-
network - the NSFNet - has provided a useful refer-      count now for 6.1 percent of the entire NSFNet back-
ence point for making consistent measurements.           bone traffic and growing at the unprecedented rate of
 Total networks increased at the rate of 160 percent     341,000 percent in 1993. New Web servers have been
last year; 183 percent outside the USA. As of 1 June,    added at the rate of 12 per day over the past three
IP traffic is being routed to networks in 81 different   months, and each can support many imple-
nations. It's known that the European CERN back-         mentations. This currently amounts to almost a
bone usually sees more reachable networks, and with      terabyte a month of Web traffic. If this growth pat-
the emergence of commercial public Internet back-        tern persists, some have calculated that in three years
bones as well as the termination of NSFNet next year,    it will exceed the total world voice communication
the total number is likely to increase even faster.      traffic.
 Another major trend - in addition to globalization       The Matrix Internet
and the rapid increases - is revealed in analyzing the     The core Internet's massive size, high performance,
kinds of new networks attaching. Most are commer-        and open connectivity has proved a magnet to nearly
cial in nature.                                          every other kind of computer network. As a result,
 Specific focus on both the Asia-Pacific and European    many other large and extensive networks have
regions shows that about a year ago, the number of       attached themselves to the core Internet's periphery.
networks in most countries with significant GNPs         This includes networks based on specific platforms
began to scale significantly with about 1500             like BITNET, FidoNet, AppleLink, Minitel, and UUCP
connected networks in each country. The trend            networks, as well as specific application networks for
seems unabated.                                          Email - for which there are numerous examples like
 In addition to dimensioning the Internet in terms of    X.400,    AT&T       mail,    MCIMail,     SprintMail,
networks, it is also possible to do so by computer       CompuServe, etc.
hosts reachable. Since the earliest days of the Inter-
 4 Networld+Interop 94 Tokyo 27-29 July 1994


  These peripheral networks create a larger Matrix           process of developing running, standardized code
Internet that currently reaches 154 countries, and           through the Internet has been highly successful.
provide many millions of people with lowest com-               It is the more general user populations, however,
mon denominator Email connectivity. In this capac-           who are embracing the tools in vast numbers across
ity, the Internet is truly the world's universal elec-       the planet. The enormity of the implications are just
tronic messaging backbone.                                   beginning to be understood.          For example, it's
                                                             asserted that 80 percent of all the scientists who ever
3. Open Collaboration and Development                        lived are on the Internet today! And in each of these
  Just as the Internet is technologically a virtual matrix   fields, the people "networked" constitute the majority
among up to 4 billion computers and 64,000 process           of early adopters and innovators.
ports on each of those computers, so is it also a matrix
among 20-30 million people who are directly or               4. Transforming Enterprises, Institutions,
indirectly using those computers and processes. This            and Professions
is an enormously empowering capability that allows            The effects of large-scale networking of enterprises,
almost instant creation of workgroups, discussion            institutions, and people are now being realized.
groups, and audiences of all kinds. The capability           Certainly traditional barriers whether they are
transcends time zones, national and organizational           reporting hierarchies, institutions, country or geog-
boundaries, and in the near future even language. In         raphy are being obliterated. There is also a certain
its ultimate extrapolation, it is the ultimate open          "compelling" effect that beyond a certain point pro-
society where anyone, anywhere can provide or                motes ever larger numbers of people to become
receive any information to anyone within seconds.            networked. Not having an Internet mail address
 From its inception, the Internet was intended as            today has become a major liability in many busi-
more than just a computer network, but as a means of         nesses and professions.
facilitating collaboration and development at great            The result has been to transform old institutions,
speed - sometimes described as technology transfer           create new network based enterprises, and bring
among disparate groups with different strengths like         about programmes to implement these transforma-
academics, industry researchers, and business entre-         tions. The best known of the latter is the Clinton
preneurs. This activity has taken two forms: 1)              Administration's Reinventing Government initiative.
research and development of new distributed net-             However, on a smaller scale, efforts are now under-
work techniques and applications, and 2) innumer-            way in Canada, Chile, Argentina, France, and Poland
able user populations employing the Internet and its         - as well as many international organizations.
technologies as tools to significantly enhance their
                                                               Some major older corporations like IBM and Chrys-
specific professional activity or pursuit.
                                                             ler have embarked on well-known efforts to get
 An entire new engineering and research discipline           Internet technologies introduced among their
has been cut out of whole cloth - distributed                employees to purposely break down both internal
autonomous networking - complete with its own                and external barriers. In an increasingly competitive
development dynamics and methods. Mosaic, httpd,             environment, lacking network connectivity and
Gopher, Archie, Veronica, Collage, Eudora, POP,              employees with skill sets to effective use the network
SMTP, Netfind, Knowbots, NFS, NNTP, VAT, and                 tools, is a major liability that's quickly reflected in
SNMP are examples of some of the more popular                either diminishing market share or lost opportunities.
client-server products to come out of the Internet
                                                               An entirely new and potentially massive new field is
innovation "soup."
                                                             now emerging around the Internet and distributed
 With amazing rapidity, ideas for a new application          networking. Getting connectivity is only one com-
or service get vetted on a discussion group or at IETF       ponent. More significant (and perhaps more difficult)
"BOFs" and proceed through a standards working               is obtaining and retraining people to effectively use
group. At the same time, the code is placed on a             these tools in many different enterprises. This
network server. In the process, innumerable users            daunting task involves not only equipment, but cul-
employ the code, grow the market, refine the code,           tures and attitudes. And, it also pervades every office
and a large commercial market emerges in a matter of         in a corporation or institution, from the CEO to the
months that is finely tailored to end user needs. Even       average staff member in every department.
commercial proprietary code is being distributed on
                                                               Not suprisingly, there is a focus on developing these
the network to test and grow the marketplace - as is
                                                             skills now at the elementary and secondary school
the case currently with 32-bit versions of Microsoft
                                                             levels so that children at an early age are able to
Windows operating system code being distributed
                                                             comfortably use and create information on com-
concurrently with new versions of Mosaic. This
                                                             puters, to discover and make available networked
                                                             information resources, and to collaborate seamlessly
     Networld+Interop 94 Tokyo 27-29 July 1994                                                                          5


across networks with their peers. These are the sur-           activity on the Internet. However, this is not likely to
vival skills of rapidly emerging global internetworked         displace "free information" given the ever increasing
environment.                                                   use of the Internet by public institutions, for com-
                                                               mercial public relations, or just the propensity of
5. A Huge Market Sector                                        human beings to share their own information.
 The estimated 20-30 million users on the Internet              Ubiquity
constitute an ideal market. The users are predomi-               Other major indicators include both the ubiquity of
nantly young, middle to upper class, well-educated,            the access, as well as the ease of setup and use by
and highly motivated. As the number of Internet                ordinary people. Access involves the diversity of the
users grows another two orders of magnitude, these             media being employed (such as local dialup,
characteristics are likely to remain, in addition to           freephone dialup, CATV LANs, N-ISDN, and VSATs),
becoming ever more global.                                     and the ever-expanding number of service providers -
 The Internet provides an exceptionally low cost               especially major carriers and local resellers. Resellers
mechanism for interacting with this audience. This             are especially important in this phase of internet
interaction not only includes public relations and             evolution because of the frequent significant level of
advertising, but testing of target audiences, sales, and       interaction with customers in using the technology.
customer support.                                              However, some of the newly emerging software for
                                                               PC environments is so object oriented and self
 The principal major caveat concerns the strong tra-
                                                               configuring that only minimal computer skills are
ditions for propriety and privacy that rule out mass
                                                               required.
mailing or other intrusive techniques. Such miscon-
duct or fraudulent behavior can also propagate very
                                                               What Modulates Internet Development?
quickly.
                                                                 In the face of all these positive indicators, however, it
 The Future                                                    is useful to consider what kinds of conditions result in
                                                               the growth or stifling of internet developments. Over
 These different facets of Internet will assure an             the past few years, some specific information on
exciting and constantly evolving future.                       Internet diffusion has become evident.
  It seems meaningless to talk about "what's after the          Plainly, many external conditions modulate imple-
Internet" anymore than to talk about what's after the          mentation and use.      For example, available capital
telephone. As long as we have computers speaking               for investment is always a major factor with any new
to other computers via distributed networks, we will           technology. Even with basic telephone systems, the
have internets. Indeed, a hundred years from now,              correlation of telephone lines versus national GNP is
history may well record the emergence and imple-               almost a straight line. However, the diffusion of
mentation of an Internet protocol as a profound                internet technologies, networks, and use require
turning point in the evolution of human communica-             conditions that are really rather unique and go well
tion - of much greater significance than the creation of       beyond just capital investment to a host of factors that
the printing press.                                            collectively are sometimes called "culture."
 No other form of human communication other than                A threshold condition is the freedom introduce and
actual meetings allow people to actually interact with         operate Internets without significant governmental or
each other in a collaborative fashion in short time-           institutional impediments.      The Internet consists
scales. It is this capability of rapid, large scale, low-      almost entirely of tens of thousands of private net-
cost interaction of people and sharing of information          works all constructed and operated by largely private
that are unique Internet properties - which have               initiative. The Internet functions very effectively on a
profound implications across a broad spectrum of               global scale through a number of multilateral and
human activities.                                              bilateral agreements among backbone service
                                                               providers and end-user networks.
Important Indicators                                             The Internet is a creature of the unregulated, highly
 It's difficult to predict where all the different facets of   dynamic computer networking field - not the tradi-
the Internet are leading us. In the near-term, we can          tional regulated monopoly telecom environment. The
look at events currently underway to chart likely              Internet does best where the environments are subject
developments in the coming months.                             to little or no regulation of any kind.
 Business on the net                                            Internet monopoly environments are invariably the
  Certainly the many initiatives using applied encryp-         worse kind - being antithetical to the very concept of
tion technologies and dove-tailing with pre-existing           what the Internet is all about. Such environments are
EDI work, points to all kinds of business-related              also contrary to the Annex on Telecommunications in
                                                               the new General Agreement on Trade in Services
 6 Networld+Interop 94 Tokyo 27-29 July 1994


(GATS) and the appended schedules of specific                 The next few years will likely witness nearly every
commitments by 96 signatory countries plus the               computer in the world being potentially connected to
European Union. These provisions elaborate on                an internet. This seems well within the realm of
some of the desirable conditions needed for Internet         feasibility. However, what numbers are actually
fertility, namely access to markets and cost-oriented        connected to the Internet or accessible - through the
underlying transport circuits.                               Internet and at what bandwidths or time periods -
 However, even in competitive environments, some             depends largely on the available underlying infra-
regulatory authorities have a penchant for becoming          structure and cost of service.
involved in the operations of Internet providers -             Bandwidth seems destined in the long-term to ap-
either reviewing business plans or operational               proach zero within and among most metropolitan
agreements. Given the incredibly fast changing               areas of the world, but the increasing complexities of
operational dynamics of the Internet scene, such             managing ever larger numbers of Internet networks
intrusive regulation is inevitably stifling, as backbone     is going to drive operation and maintenance costs up.
providers increase in number and move from bilat-            The result for end users may mirror the computer
eral to multilateral arrangements among themselves           world where the performance just keeps on
to lessen the complexities and enhance ubiquitous            increasing at relatively constant cost. In fact, the
connectivity.                                                evolution of computers and computer networks is
 Other major diffusion factors include the cost of           sure to proceed hand in hand. And collective inno-
underlying transport bandwidth and the ability to            vative Internet genius will doubtlessly produce an
acquire current-technology computers and software            endless stream of imaginative applications and tools.
at low-cost. These factors go both to the national            It is at the human and institutional levels that major
competitive conditions for basic telecom services and        unknowns arise - but also offer the greatest promise.
oversight of the pricing practices of dominant carri-        The autonomous, heterogeneous, flat model of the
ers.                                                         Internet seems intrinsically a good one. It will be
 Dominant carriers in most countries often attempt to        constant discovery time in Cyberspace, but a world of
charge prices for underlying circuit capacity that are       shared minds that transcends the accidental
orders of magnitude greater than the actual costs -          boundaries of history, the distance of geography, the
principally in a misguided attempt to force customers        machinations of institutions, and the mischief of
to use the carrier's own value added networks and            manipulation, is potentially one filled with discovery,
technologies, and to prevent competition. The great          fulfillment and fascination for all peoples - indi-
circuit price disparities between Europe and the USA,        vidually and collectively.
for example, prompted the European Nuclear                    The Internet Society as the international
Research Center (CERN) two years ago to publicly             organization for the Internet is dedicated to help
document these practices and plead for a change.             make this happen.
 Because end user computers and peripheral hard-                                  
ware are such a fundamental component of Internet
growth and development, national practices which
heavily tax and restrict computer imports and use,
also have a major adverse effect on Internet diffusion.
Restrictions or taxes on the use of modems, for
example, have widespread negative effects.


 The Challenges and Promises
 No electronic network mesh has consistently grown
on the scale at the speed of the Internet. As a result, it
has throughout its history been constantly challenged
to develop new technologies, standards, and
administrative techniques to provide greater band-
width and additional services to more users through
ever more complex architectures. However, each
order of magnitude scaling becomes more difficult.
 Problems associated with addressing and security
seem largely transitory - with a combination of tech-
nology, new statndards, and administration provid-
ing effective solutions.

				
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