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					3. Development of Nanophotonics
           Markets


 Michael Heuken:        Aixtron
 T.P. Pearsall:         EPIC

                   MONA : The Nanophotonics Roadmap
                                Break-out Group 3


   Development of a Nanophotonics Market
        Leaders: Heuken and Pearsall

     Key Questions:

        A.    Development of a nanophotonics market in a major
        application?
                     What is the application?
                     What could be the trigger?
                     Role of politics

        B.    Market Volumes vs Time
                     When must technology breakthroughs occur?

   Gold Room after the Coffee Break

                                                                 2
                      Definitions are important


 What is nanophotonics
    Is stained glass nanophotonic?


 Markets exist for applications, not
   technologies.




                                             3
                               Specific Application: Optical Disk Drive




   Seagate Optical disk drive
      Hard magnetic materials allow to make small magnetic domains
      You need to heat up the area first , then flip the domain
      To focus the energy in a smaller than the diffraction limit
      Use a plasmonic lens structure to focus the energy

      Trigger
         • Can’t reach the higher density of storage using soft materials
         • Manufacturing investment felt to be moderate generational
           upgrade

      Political
        • On the Disk industry roadmap uncertain effect


                                                                            4
                           Specific Application: Backlighting




   LCD back-lighting by LEDs
      Advantage of LEDS
        • Better chromaticity
        • Makes LCD brighter better color rendering
        • High price is an obstacle to implementation
        • Patent blockage

      Trigger
        • Develop LED technology that gets around
          exisiting patents
        • Processes using other kinds of LEDs, like
          OLEDs                                                 5
                         Specific Application: Secure Communications




   Highly secure High Data rate Communication with quantum
    cryptography
       Free-space note different wavelengths and different sources
       Fibre guided

   Trigger for application
       Development of a single quantum dot emitter implement Q-bits
       Electrically driven, of course
       Lower cost device like LED or VCSEL

   Political input
      Value of 100% safe communication
      Importance for military and commercial applications
      How do you treat criminal communication?


                                                                       6
                      Preliminary Data from Yole Développement




 Question One
    Some analysis of high and low impact
     technologies


 Question two
    A projection on the time to market




                                                          7
                                                        Market growth and size for applications
                                                             targeted by nanophotonics


Relative market growth
                                                                                       Size of bubble corresponds
                                         Imaging                                       to Market size in 2009
                                        (IR & CMOS)            Photovoltaic

                  LED
                lighting
                           Optical
                        interconnect

                                                                                                       $10B
                                                            Flat panel displays
          Data telecom                                      (LCD, plasma, OLED, FED)
           (laser, switches,
             amplifier, filter)


                                   Data storage
                                         (laser,
                                  holographic memory)                                                  $1B


       Instrumentation
         (SNOM probes)                                                                                 0.1 $B

             Components                                                         Systems
                                                                                                              8
                                        Definitions of the different impact levels of
                                                       nanophotonic



Impact of nanophotonic on the application field:

•   Low impact:
    •   Devices with mainly incremental benefits (no real breakthroughs).
    •   No major new devices are emerging because of nanophotonics.
    •   Nanophotonic device sales are estimated to be less than 1 % for the considered application in
        2009.

•   Medium impact:
    •   Significant benefits compared to traditional technologies
    •   Some new devices are emerging because of nanophotonics, but with a limited impact on the
        application field.
    •   Nanophotonic device sales are estimated to be between 1 to 10 % for the considered application in
        2009.

•   Strong impact:
    •   Very important benefits compared to traditional technologies
    •   New devices are developed with an important impact on the application field : market structure
        reorganization, booster of the application field sales.
    •   Nanophotonic device sales are estimated to be higher than 10 % for the considered application in
        2009.


                                                                                                        9
                                                          Nanophotonic impact on global
                                                                market volumes

Relative market growth
                                                                                         Size of bubble corresponds
                                             Imaging                                     to Market size in 2009
                                            (IR & CMOS)          Photovoltaic

                  LED
                lighting
                           Optical                                                                         $10B
                        interconnect


                                                            Flat panel displays
                                                            (LCD, plasma, OLED, FED)
          Data telecom                                                                                     $1B
           (laser, switches,
             amplifier, filter)


                                   Data storage                                                          0.1 $B
                                         (laser,
                                  holographic memory)                                  Red = high impact
                                                                                       Orange = medium impact
       Instrumentation
         (SNOM probes)                                                                 Yellow = low impact

             Component                                                           System
                                                                                                              10
                                                          Time-to-market

Schedule when most of the nanophotonics devices will move to applied R&D and
first market applications.
                                                      Instrumentation/
                                                         metrology

    Calendar as
                                                      Sensors
    proposed by
    MONA project
                                      Photovoltaics



                                           Data storage


                                Datacoms/             Optical
                                telecoms           interconnects

                               Displays


                  Imaging


                    Lighting
                                                                                        Time to market

    2005   2006   2007      2008    2009      2010        2011   2012    2013   2014   2015       11
                                                                      Time-to-market

Compare with previous slide. Breakout group advanced the timing of first
commercial applications. Definitions are key to usefulness of such a calendar
                                                                 Instrumentation/
             OCT?                                                   metrology


 Agree            The Break-out                                Sensors
                  group disagreed                                                   Next generation nanostrucutres for photon

 or               with the timing.          Photovoltaics
                                                                                    harvesting nanosolar, konarka , go to the
                                                                                    web site. See Spie Digital library



 Disagree?                                       Data storage
                                                                                    Seagate has plasmonic tip for laser
                                                                                    assisted writing

                                                                                    Revenue estimate?
      Datacoms/                            Optical
      telecoms                          interconnects

                                                                                      In general we feel that nanophotonic
                                                Displays                              technology is already on the market in most
                                                                                      of these applications

  Quantum dots for Imaging      Do functionalized nanoparticles for
                                imaging count?


                                     Lighting
                                                                                                               Time to market

      2005    2006     2007   2008       2009         2010            2011   2012    2013       2014        2015             12

				
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