Report on 25-27 March Crystal City Workshop to Identify Grand by armedman1


									Report on 25-27 March Crystal City
      Workshop to Identify Grand
    Challenges in Climate Change

                    By its cochair- Robert Dickinson
               For the 5 Sept. 2008 BERAC Meeting:
 Process of report preparation
 Initial content agreed to by a drafting group meeting
  the afternoon following the workshop
 Written by the co-chairs and iterated many times with
  a subset of the workshop participants.
 Discussed at the May BERAC meeting.
 Further editing based on inputs from closed
  interactive website used to distribute (twice) to all the
  workshop participants for comment and comments on
 Submitted to BERAC after further editing by cochairs
  and technical editing by DOE staff.
     Background to the meeting
 Climate change from use of fossil fuel energy recognized by DOE
  as a major constraint on the Nations future development and
  use of energy.
 IPCC 2007 reported that this climate change already highly
  visible and expected to continue unabated for at least the next
  several decades.
 Since that report, a number of further studies showing some
  changes happening even faster than anticipated.
 A chorus of voices asking for more detailed local information on
  what has and will change for their planning horizons
 NOAA planning on providing a “Climate Services” to meet this
  need with there yet being little of the research being done that
  such a “Services” would have to be built upon.
Grand Challenges Identified by the Workshop

 Improve the characterization of Earth’s climate, and its
  evolution through the last century to its present state.

 Predict Regional Climate Change for the Next Several

 Simulate Earth System change over centuries
    Improve the characterization of Earth’s
  climate, and its evolution through the last
         century to its present state.

 Limited by both lack of understanding and data.

 Reanalyses to provide global system research
  data sets for many important system
  components. Test models and provide initial
  conditions for future projections.
 Regional scale observational field programs
 Predict Regional Climate Change for
      the Next Several Decades

 Much more climate detail can be provided by
   Use of latest high performance computational tools
   limiting time frame to decadal and processes to those that
     are important on that time frame.

 Additional information if initial state adequately
  constrained by observations – expected product from the
  first Challenge.

 Decision support for adaptation at state and local level
    Simulate Earth System change over

 On century time scales many feedbacks affect
  climate system that are not yet modeled or
  adequately so (e.g., involving biogeochemical
  cycling, dynamic vegetation, and atmospheric
  chemistry) .
 Carbon cycle feedbacks have large control on how
  much atmospheric CO2 over this time.
 Decision support for mitigation policies
     Research needed to address Grand

 Characterize impacts of radiatively active constituents,
  especially aerosols and clouds on climate and air quality
   Interactions with clouds
   Precipitation
   Moist convection
   Atmospheric chemical processes
 Interactions between ecosystem processes and
  changes and the climate system.
 Interactions between changing climate, hydrological
  systems – their management.
 Multiple generations of Earth System models
   Incorporate advances in process understanding to further
    model complexity and improve parameterizations
   Develop and improve initialization procedures validated
    through observational, experimental, and focused
    modeling activities.

 Climate change
   Implications for energy systems
  Support strategies for mitigation that affect climate change
    and influence adaptation choices
        Highlighted Directions

 Must include integration and communication

 Human dimension components

 Computational, observational, and experimental research

 Need enhanced computing capabilities

 Education of new scientists and public
                  Decision Support Examples

Grand Challenge      Present Climate    Next Several          Change Over
                                        Decades               Centuries
Decision issue       Needed Decisions   Needed Decisions      Needed Decisions
Options: green-      Technologies,      Mitigation            Optimum
house warming        incentives;        consequences          mitigation path;
mitigation           consumption        Corrections           Adaptation
Coastal              Insurance rates    Safety over design    Risk valuations
flooding/infrastruct                    lifetimes
Agricultural         Bio-fuel production Land and new
production           impact food supply crops more
Ecosystem            Habitat loss;      Biological reserves
management           thresholds
Protect lives                           Abrupt change
 Implications for DOE’s Research Program

 Build from current strengths, e.g. Earth System modeling;
  field observations, clouds and aerosols, terrestrial
  systems, ice.

 Lead integration of whole system – requires partnerships
  with other agencies, etc.

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