PREPAREDNESS BULLENTIN #20 A weekly GEMA update during hurricane season.
Preparedness Bulletin #20
August 19, 2006
El Niño in This Winter's Forecast?
Weak El Niño conditions may appear by year's end, but if it does, it will happen too late to have an impact on the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season. According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the U.S. government agency tasked with monitoring, assessing and predicting the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), cycle (El Niño and La Niña), current global atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific. These patterns are expected to continue for the next one to three months. However, Vernon Kousky, NOAA's lead ENSO scientist for more than 20 years, says, "Based on recent trends there is a 50 percent chance that weak El Niño conditions will develop late this year and continue through early 2007." If weak El Niño conditions develop, the U.S. should expect wetter-than-average conditions over portions of the Gulf Coast and southeastern states, and warmer-than-average conditions over the West, northern Great Plains and upper Midwest during January-March 2007. "At the moment, it is too early to be certain as to whether or not El Niño will develop," Kousky adds. The El Niño forecast is based on the Climate Forecast System, or CFS, model and recent trends in the oceanatmosphere system. NOAA will continue to monitor the conditions in the tropical Pacific and issue the nation's official forecasts in weekly and monthly updates. El Niño and La Niña are climate features that have a direct effect on weather patterns over the U.S. and the world. American Red Cross Selects Daniell for National Staff Position Former Gwinnett County EMA Deputy Director Frank Daniell recently accepted one of 13 new posts established in the nation's most disaster-prone states (including the District of Columbia) by the American Red Cross (ARC). As the Red Cross Program Manager of State Emergency Management Relations in Georgia, Daniell's primary purpose is to develop and maintain the capacity of the Red Cross to meet the service delivery requirements of emergency management and voluntary agency partners at the state and local level. After 27 years in emergency management and fire services in Gwinnett and as a former president of the Emergency Management Association of Georgia (EMAG), he is well suited for this new job he's had since June 26. During yesterday's Contemporary Issues Conference sponsored by EMAG and held at the Georgia Public Safety Training Center in Forsyth by GEMA, Daniell outlined new ARC chapter performance standards that have been adopted since Hurricane Katrina hit Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama almost a year ago. These standards represent five priority objectives that chapters must be able to accomplish, at a minimum: initial sheltering initiate fixed and mobile feeding initiate damage assessment insure that the public knows what ARC is doing and ask for their support through donations 5. staff local government and state emergency operations centers for at least five days In order to accomplish Objective #5, he is training a cadre of individuals who will interface with emergency management agencies across the state. These Red Cross staffers will be required to complete not only ARC emergency operations center classes but state and federal National Incident Management System (NIMS) classes, as well. During his conference presentation, Daniell also discussed the National Shelter Program. It is a partnership between the ARC and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to 1. 2. 3. 4.
compile a real-time database of both ARC and non-ARC shelters throughout the country for use by all levels of government and emergency management. FEMA is currently inputing data into the system for use within the near future. "These are just some of many initiatives underway to increase the capacity of the Red Cross," he said. Tropical Outlook for the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico An area of low pressure remains near the southeastern coast of the U.S., centered about 90 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, but upper-level winds are not conducive for tropical cyclone development in this area. Satellite and radar data indicate that the system continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms with brief gusty winds. This activity could still affect coastal areas of Georgia and the northern Florida peninsula during the next day or two as the system moves slowly southwestward. Elsewhere, tropical formation is not expected through Sunday, August 20. ####