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Its a fait accompli As from 1 January the Institute has

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Its a fait accompli As from 1 January the Institute has Powered By Docstoc
                                                                       n° 1
                                                                                                                February 2002
      institute                                 European Union

                   for    security                                     Quarterly published by the EU Institute for Security Studies

                    studies                                            43 avenue du Président Wilson - 75775 Paris cedex 16 - France
                                                                       phone.: + 33 (0) 1 56 89 19 30 • fax: + 33 (0) 1 56 89 19 31

            institut é tudes     d’

                          de    s écurité       Union Européenne


The old and the new                                                                                     éditoNicole Gnesotto

      t’s a fait accompli. As from 1 January the Institute has      task of producing a ‘Book’ on European defence.
      become the European Union Institute for Security              And the launching of a European Convention will
      Studies. Having devoted the last quarter of 2001 to ne-       be the occasion for the Institute to make its own
gotiations on a whole corpus of legal, administrative, social and   contribution to the debate that will determine the
financial provisions, the Institute is once again operational as    future of the Union and its institutions by the year
an autonomous agency of the Union, financed by the fifteen          2004.
Member States but still completely independent in the choice of
issues it works on and its output.                                  s This reorganisation will of course not happen in
                                                                    a day. A large body of experience was amassed by the
s The Institute is being transformed: a new team of re-             Institute during its former existence. It is now a
searchers is in the process of being recruited. We are re-          matter of building on the most fruitful aspects of it
thinking all of our working methods, both at the                    and abandoning the less productive ones, and con-
Institute itself and where they concern our external                stantly enlarging the network of expertise to take in
partners – Javier Solana and the Political and Security             other European institutes. We shall devote whatever
Committee of course, the Union’s various institutions,              time is necessary to that.
and all the national security and defence institutes that
will continue to be the Institute’s chosen associates.              s In the coming weeks, however, the Institute will
These reforms concern in the first place most of the                resume its pattern of external activities. On the
things that underpin the Institute’s activities: the pub-           Balkans, the strategic dialogue with Russia, politi-
lications system, the computer network, our database,               cal and military developments in the United States,
a new website and a redefinition of the tasks of each               the development of the ESDP and so on, the post-
member of the Institute. They also include a new pro-               11 September world needs more than ever a calm
gramme of work that is being worked out, the empha-                 confrontation of ideas and the constant adaptation
sis being on the forming of European task forces whose              of the legacy of the former world. That goes for the
mission will be to prepare and publish collective re-               Institute too, but it is equally true for all aspects of
ports on specific aspects of the Union’s security and de-           the Union’s security and defence policy.
fence policy. The Institute has already been given the
          Institute Activities
                                                                                               Stagnation of th
                                                                                               “Revolutionary”, it was called, the de-
                                                                                               velopment of EU defence after the fa-
                                                                                               mous Franco-British summit in
Work for the Council                                                                           St-Malo, in early December 1998. In
                                                                                               the period from St-Malo to Nice in
s The Institute contributed to the                                                             December 2000, we witnessed the cre-
organisation (Julian Lindley-French)                                                           ation of an elaborate and well-func-
and funding of a seminar organised               Transatlantic programme                       tioning EU defence institutional
by the Belgian Presidency of the EU,                                                           framework, working out EU defence
under the auspices of the Minister               Conference                                    policy. Simultaneously Headline, ca-
of Defence, entitled ‘Towards a                  The Institute organised (Julian               pability and Police goals were set in or-
European White Book’ that was                    Lindley-French) a conference in               der to create a pool of forces and other
held in Brussels on 3 and 4 October.             Brussels on 29 and 30 November,               tools available to back up such policy.
                                                 2001 entitled ‘Transatlantic
s In the margins of the seminar, the             Relations and the New World                   Seen from this perspective, 2002
Institute held a brainstorming on the            Disorder’ that looked at the strategic        made a rather disappointing start.
consequences of the terrorist attacks            implications of the attacks on New            Admittedly, much time and effort are
of 11 September on CFSP/ESDP for                 York and Washington.                          needed to implement the multitude of
the Political and Security Committee                                                           proposals and initiatives that flowed
ambassadors and the Secretariat-                                                               from Cologne, Helsinki and Feira and
General of the Council.                                                                        which were formalised at Nice.
                                                                                               However, one cannot escape the im-
                                                                                               pression, and not for the first time in
                                                 External publications                         the EU’s history, that institutional
                                                                                               arrangements are tackled first and ex-
                                                 Nicole Gnesotto                               tensively, whilst more political will and
                                                 — ‘Quelle diplomatie et quelle défense
                                                                                               resources are needed in more crucial
                                                 pour l’Europe?’ in Assises sur l’avenir de
                                                                                               fields, in this case foremost assets and
                                                 l’Europe, Assemblée nationale,
Institute publications                           7-8 November 2001.
                                                                                               Insufficient additional financial re-
                                                 — ‘Quelle défense et quelle sécurité pour
                                                 demain ?’ (with Jean-Claude Mallet, Bruno
                                                                                               sources have been provided by member
                                                 Racine, Jean-François Bureau, François
                                                                                               states and therefore only about half of
Transatlantic Series                             Heisbourg and Jean-Pierre Kelche),
                                                                                               the agreed projects for strengthening
                                                 in Défense nationale, November 2001.
                                                                                               defence capacities were accomplished
The proceedings of the meeting held in           — ‘Face aux nouvelles menaces, quelle
                                                                                               in 2001, mostly the easier ones.
Paris on 21 and 22 June 2001 were                coalition antiterroriste ?’ (with Thérèse
                                                                                               Successful exceptions comprise the
published in December as ‘The 2001 Paris         Delpech and Pierre Hassner), in Esprit,
                                                                                               creation of an Airlift Coordination
Transatlantic Conference’, edited by             November 2001.
                                                                                               Cell, the European Amphibious
Julian Lindley-French.                                                                         Initiative, the A400M (hopefully), in-
                                                 Antonio Missiroli                             creased cooperation among France,
Occasional Papers                                — ‘Sicherheitspolitische Kooperation
                                                                                               Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and
                                                 zwischen Europäischer Union und Nato:
                                                                                               Finland inter alia, air-to-air refuelling
s N° 31 : Aspects juridiques de la politique     Der türkische Verdruss über die ESVP’,
                                                                                               and Search and Rescue (SAR) as well as
européenne de sécurité et de défense, by Lydia   in Integration, October 2001.
Pnevmaticou, a former visiting fellow            — ‘L’Europa – di nuovo occidentale ?’ (with
(November).                                      Marta Dassù), in Italianieuropei, 1/2002 .
s N°32 : Managing separatist states:             — ‘Defence Spending in Europe: How to
a Eurasian case study, by Dov Lynch,             Pay for Improved Capabilites?’,
a former visiting fellow (November).             in www.cicerofoundation@org/p4-html
                                                 (Lectures on-line), 2002.                     On-line/http
Forthcoming                                      — ‘EU-NATO Cooperation in Crisis
                                                 Management: No Turkish Delight for
s Chaillot Paper N°51:                           ESDP’, in Security Dialogue, Vol. 33(1)       The institute also has a new website. On
From Nice to Laeken : European Defence core      2002.                                         this site it is possible to access all the
documents (vol. 2),                                                                            Institute’s publications as well as com-
compiled by Maartje Rutten.                      Dimitrios Triantaphyllou                      ment on recent events and information on
s Occasional Papers N°33 :                       — ‘Beyond the Kosovo Elections – the EU       many of the Institute’s activities.
A new European Union policy for Kaliningrad      needs to act’ dans ELIAMEP Times, winter
by Sander Huisman                                2001.                               
                                                 — ‘Kosovo vor den Wahlen ?’,
                                                 in SOE-Monitor, October 2001.
   British, German, French and Italian          voke a comparable consensus among               The 11 September disaster has re-
   cooperation on Suppression of Enemy          the EU member states.                           vealed the disparity and broadness of
   Air Defence (SEAD) capabilities.                                                             threats. Far more instruments are
   Overall, however, interest but espe-         Indeed, the EU has been very active in          needed in effectively countering any of
   cially faith has been fading in some         promoting a judiciary and economic              these threats than have even been dis-
   countries regarding realisation of the       counter-terrorism policy. Important             cerned thus far. 11 September also
   goals. Clearly, the momentum of the          steps have been taken, such as more             showed the vulnerability not only of
   embarrassing European track record           anti-terrorist specialists under                the US but also of the rest of the world.
   in Kosovo seems to be disappearing.          Europol and more counter-terrorist              Security and defence have now become
                                                cooperation among member states                 global and thus the European focus on
   Then came the horrifying events of 11        through joint investigation teams,              its ‘near abroad’ looks increasingly
   September 2001. Not only does it             COTER, the Working Party on                     anachronistic. Counter-terrorism
   largely derail the ESDP plans (strategy,     Terrorism and the Working Party on              should become a legitimate part of the
   goals, geographic limits and character       NBC and EU-coordinated civil protec-            ESDP, with a global focus and in-
   of possible operations, military and         tion measures.                                  creased emphasis on crisis prevention.
   civil means, etc) but international anti-                                                    As is widely recognised, the EU has the
   terrorism coalition-building and the         However, a proposal to push for in-             potential to play a significant role here,
   military campaign in Afghanistan             creased national spending on the                especially as regards the broadness of
   have put ‘EU commonality’ under              ESDP in the wake of the terrorist at-           its gamut of instruments, not least
   significant strain, putting the              tacks was rejected on 12 October 2001,          economic, and fill a gap in this ‘rede-
   CFSP/ESDP acquis in danger.                  during an informal meeting of                   fined security’ in this ‘reconfigured
   Possible contributions by EU member          Defence Ministers in Brussels. Nor is           strategic environment’.
   states to the US campaign increased          any revision of the Headline Goal or
   the struggle within the EU, between          reconsideration of the Petersberg tasks         The Laeken Declaration on the Future
   the ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots’. This in     is planned, and no consensus has                of the European Union, annexed to the
   turn has negated the pragmatic leader-       been reached on a suggestion to                 Laeken Presidency Conclusions, talks
   ship that was very slowly developing         include the fight against terrorism as          of the essence of the EU acting as ‘a
   in Europe in the fields of security and      an ESDP mission. The Declarations               power resolutely doing battle against
   foreign affairs, with the trilateral tête-   of the Police Capabilities Conference           all violence, all terror and all fanati-
   à-tête in Ghent and the semi-War             and the Capabilities Improvement                cism’ and proposes updating the
   Council in Downing Street as the             Conference, issued on 19/20                     Petersberg tasks. Hopefully this will at
   worst examples. And finally, we are          November 2001, did not even contain             least comprise all aspects mentioned
   faced with EU political apathy.              one word on 11 September.                       earlier, strategy, goals, geographic lim-
                                                                                                its and character of operations, mili-
   The events of 11 September should            What does this mean? Do we really               tary and civil means. This means ac-
   have been exploited to the full at a mo-     need a direct terrorist attack on an EU         quiring the necessary military and
   ment when public opinion would have          member state before serious action is           civilian tools as well as more financial
   supported more expenditure for better        undertaken and resources provided?              input: in short, the EU still needs to de-
   defence. The terrorist attacks also pro-     Has experience thus far in equipping            cide if it wants to exist or not as an in-
   vided the best pretext (for once) for the    Europe not shown clearly enough that            ternational actor.
   EU to act at 15, as every EU member          progress is very slow and that waiting                                     Maartje Rutten
   state condemned the attacks. It is un-       for the ‘moment suprême’ is too dan-
   likely that any other future crisis, un-     gerous because it will be too late to de-
   less it is a similar one, is going to pro-   velop the necessary means?

                                                      Research awards
   Briefings                                          Senior visiting fellows
                                                      - Veron Surroi, the editor of the Kosovo newspaper Koha Ditore, was at the
                                                      Institute in November and December, working on the Albanian question.
   The Director and research fellows gave
   a briefing on aspects of European secu-            Visiting fellows
   rity to a group of American institutional          During the period October to December the following studied at the Institute as visiting
   investors.                                         fellows:
                                                      - Sander Huisman (Dutch), whose research topic was an analysis of how the
                                                      EU, Russia, Kaliningrad and its neighbours should develop new policies to
                                                      avoid new divisions.
                                                      - Gloria Ogayar Suárez (Spanish), who worked on ‘The role of the EU in the
                                                      Middle East Peace Process’.

The future of Kaliningrad
                                                                                         s The EU must also do a lot to im-

       ue to its history, location, and     Unfortunately, the action the EU took
       its position as a backward           was ineffective both the Partnership         prove its own performance. First, the
       region in the midst of the Baltic    and Co-operation Agreement (PCA)             EU needs to find ways to make the
Sea region, the Russian autonomous          with Russia and its Common Strategy          overlapping areas of its internal and
province of Kaliningrad is arguably         on Russia (CSR) proving weak solu-           external policies more cohesive.
the most controversial entity in post-      tions.                                       Second, it has to coordinate its aid
Cold War Europe. It is an exclave                                                        programmes to increase the efficiency
cut off from mainland Russia by             s The weakness of the EU’s response          of financial support and enlarge the
Lithuania and Poland. Kaliningrad is        has been reinforced by the inherent          possibilities of cross-border projects.
notorious for the immense problems          conflicts between the internal and ex-       Third, Brussels has to bring consis-
it has to deal with, perhaps mirrored       ternal policies of the EU, which have        tency into the PCA, CSR and ND when

                                                                                                                                              Institute director: Nicole Gnesotto, Editor: Anthony Hervey, Graphic-design: Claire Mabille-Paris, Printed in Levallois-France at the Imprimerie Aramis, February 2002, ISSN 1017-7949.
by the inconclusive ways the EU and         prevented a constructive approach            it is dealing with Kaliningrad. The cur-
the Kremlin are figuring out how to         towards Kaliningrad. Whilst the              rent frameworks are too loose to be ef-
assist it. Any government would be          Schengen area is reliant upon strong         fective. Fourth, the EU has to increase
daunted facing a task of the magni-         and well guarded external borders, ex-       the involvement of Lithuania, Poland
tude that Kaliningrad’s governor            ternal policy is committed to engaging       and the Council of the Baltic Sea
Yegorov and his administration con-         ‘outsiders’ through cross-border             States to increase the regional expert-
front.                                      cooperative projects. Only after the de-     ise in the making and find solutions
                                            velopment of the Northern Dimension          for Kaliningrad after EU enlargement,
s Kaliningrad’s officials have to deal      (ND) in 1999 was the EU willing to ap-       as well as enhancing the participation
with the highest percentage of HIV-         proach Kaliningrad with a new and            of local officials in these discussions.
AIDS infections in Europe and with an       more flexible policy, incorporating
intimidating scale of organised crime.      Russian government involvement.              s Finally, and perhaps most impor-
Large outdated industries face struc-       Brussels took a proactive approach to-       tantly, Brussels should seriously con-
tural collapse, resulting in high un-       wards Kaliningrad during the Swedish         sider creating a Common Strategy for
employment rates. One third of              EU presidency in the first half of 2001,     Kaliningrad that is markedly different
Kaliningrad’s one million inhabitants       presenting its communication on              from the old and ineffective CSR. It
live below the poverty line, and the        Kaliningrad to the Council, which            would be easier to accomplish than the
average wage is 6 to 8 times lower          highlighted the areas where both the         CSR, as Kaliningrad is small and man-
than that of Lithuania or Poland.           EU and Russia needed to take action.         ageable, and currently none of the EU
Kaliningrad’s environmental legacy                                                       member states has a specific policy. It
also poses threats to the whole Baltic      s At the same time things were look-         would also be sensible because after
Sea region. The fundamental concern         ing brighter in Kaliningrad itself. The      2004 Kaliningrad will represent a bloc
is that Kaliningrad will play less and      new governor Yegorov is widely re-           surrounded by EU territory. Most im-
less of a role in the region. Trade flows   garded as a pro-European and reform-         portantly, it would allow a coherent
are being diverted and the main trans-      minded pragmatist. He also has a good        cross-pillar and targeted approach, in
port routes are increasingly bypassing      relationship with Putin, who wants to        keeping with Javier Solana’s objectives.
the exclave. Neighbouring countries         make Kaliningrad a pilot-region in the
have developed far more competitive         framework of the EU-Russia relation-         s 2001 witnessed several new initia-
economies.                                  ship. In addition a new federal pro-         tives to assist Kaliningrad, both from
                                            gramme on Kaliningrad was adopted.           the EU and Russian sides. Even though
s For a long time Russia’s leadership       However, both the new federal pro-           the commitment of Brussels will be pe-
did not know how to manage the crisis       gramme and Putin’s own pronounce-            riodic (due to the rotating presidency),
and adopted instead some ‘creative’         ments conceal or neglect more funda-         the action undertaken gives cause for
initiatives such as the Special             mental issues. The programme seems           moderate optimism. And whereas the
Economic Zone which gave the im-            to be based on an erroneous analysis of      new federal programme is based on an
pression of action but little else.         Kaliningrad’s needs and problems.            erroneous analysis of the real obstacles
However, nothing worked and                 Putin has been successful in putting         to growth, the Kremlin is at least will-
Kaliningrad drifted further into decay.     his appointees and favourites into the       ing to adopt new initiatives. So finally
The EU also had apparently no idea          right places but has failed to tackle dif-   there seems to be light at the end of the
what to do, choosing benign neglect in      ficult reforms and to make systematic        tunnel for Kaliningrad. However,
place of policy. Prompted by the ac-        changes (such as providing sufficient        whether that light flickers like candle-
cession negotiations of Lithuania and       leverage to Kaliningrad to increase its      light or shines like neon will depends
Poland, Brussels recognised that some       administrative capacity and imple-           on crucial improvements that sooner
action was imperative given that            menting clear legislation that takes the     or later will have to be confronted.
Kaliningrad would one day be a              interests of foreign investors into ac-
Russian enclave within EU territory.        count).                                                                 Sander Huisman
                                                                                                    Former visiting fellow at the Institute

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