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Quality – A look at all the LSC quality systems, how they relate

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Quality – A look at all the LSC quality systems, how they relate

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									The Way forward for Young People
  in Yorkshire and the Humber




  Andy Brown

  Regional Director of Young People’s Learning
  LSC
The Economic Context
  The region’s labour market
• Total employment is forecast to contract by 4.3% in
  2009, by 3.8% in 2010 and 0.4% in 2011 with no net
  growth until 2012. ILO unemployment rose to 8.8%
  (UK rate is 7.6%)

• Male unemployment is higher than female
  unemployment (10.6% and 6.7% respectively). Part-
  time male employment has risen to 10,000 since late
  2007.

• Employment rate for 16-17 year olds has fallen from
  50% (Q4 1997) to 29% (Q2 2009).

• Spatial impacts - the intensity and severity of the
  jobs market impact are not evenly spread and
  spatially concentrated.
             What many expected to be a recession of the Service
             Sector has instead hit the usual suspects hardest…
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                While there have been
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                significant job losses in the
                                               East Riding of Yorkshire



                                                                                                 North East Lincolnshire                                            Impact of the Recession on Local Employment 2007-2009                                                                                                                                       Financial and Business
                                                                           Kingston Upon Hull



                                                                                                                            North Lincolnshire
                           Yorks and Humber




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Services sectors, losses in




                                                                                                                                                                                      Richmondshire



                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Scarborough
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Retailing, Manufacturing and




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Rotherham
                                                                                                                                                            Hambleton




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Calderdale
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Doncaster
                                                                                                                                                                         Harrogate




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Wakefield
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Sheffield
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Barnsley




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Bradford



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Kirklees
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Ryedale
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Construction have hit the
                                                                                                                                                  Craven




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Leeds
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Selby

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          York
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                areas with traditional industry
                   UK




           0.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  mixes hardest.

           -1.0                                                                                                                                                                                       -0.65                                                                                                                                                     118,000 FTE jobs are expected
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                -1.36
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                to be shed in Y&H, 14% of the
           -2.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 UK total of 834,000.
                                                                                                                                                 -1.92
% Change




           -3.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                The largest absolute job
                                                                                                                                                           -2.99                     -2.99                                                                                                                                                                      losses are being seen in Leeds
                  -3.19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                (25,000), Sheffield (15,000), and
           -4.0                                                                                                                                                                                                  -3.68
                                                                                                                                                                        -4.02                                                                                                                                                                                   Bradford (10,000). Although
                                              -4.43
                                                                                                -4.27
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   -4.45        proportionately the hardest hit
           -5.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 areas include Calderdale,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          -5.11
                          -5.41
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         -5.22                                                                                -5.18                             Barnsley and Hull.
           -6.0                                                                                                            -5.69                                                                                                                                                                    -5.78
                                                                          -6.04                                                                                                                                                                              -6.09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       -6.27
           -7.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  -6.84                                                                                    -6.76
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                -6.93

           -8.0
  UK employment rates show the
impact of the recession on younger
           age groups…
  UK employment rates show the
impact of the recession on younger
           age groups…
The employment rate for 16-19 year olds
fell from 52% to 42% between 2004 and
2008
Consequent decline in Young People in
Jobs without training
10.4% in July 2008 to 7.4% in July 2009
Demographics
 Participation
   & NEET
               Demographics
Population of those aged 16-18 in Yorkshire and the Humber

 2009                         210,400

 2010                         205,200

 2011                         200,200

 2012                         197,800

 2013                         195,500
 Ethnic group of 16-18 population
         White   Mixed   Asian/    Black/    Non
                         British   British   white
N&NE     99.3                                0.7
Lincs
N&E      98.4            0.8                 1.6
Yorks
South    87.8    2.3     5.5       2.4       12.2
Yorks
West     81.4    3.7     11.6      2.4       18.6
Yorks
Region   88.5    2.2     6.5       1.7       11.5
                 NEET
• Stubbornly high
• 13,596 (Nov 08 - Jan 09 average)
• 11,531 not known
•   7.9% NEET Yorkshire and the Humber
•   6.7% NEET England
•   NEET down only 0.3% Nov - Jan average
•   NEET down only 0.4% July - Sept average
The Entitlement
   The Entitlement

• A high quality training place for every young
person – international competitive skills
• Raising the participation age to 17 by 2013
                                     18 by 2015
• Means meeting the needs of all learners
e.g. those with learning difficulties and or
disabilities
• Applies throughout the year
• The key driving factor behind local planning
• The key driving factor behind curriculum
change
Success and Achievement
         Further Education
      Success Rates of Starters
            2005-6   2006-7   2007-8



Yorkshire   73.6%    75.4%    78.5%
and the
Humber
National    75.1%    77.4%    79.9%
         Apprenticeship
     Success Rates of Starters

            2006-7   2007-8   2008-9



Yorkshire   61.5%    67.9%    69.3%
and the
Humber
National    61.2%    65.3%    67.2%
  Schools and Colleges Average
  Level 3 Point Score per Entry
            2005-6   2006-7   2007-8



Yorkshire   200.4    199.8    202.0
and the
Humber
National    206.2    207.5    209.4
Key Priorities for the Region
To prepare to meet the entitlement
              for all
Supporting high achievers to progress
Changing the balance of level 3 provision
• Collaboration to provide strong choice and value
for money
• Expansion of diplomas
• One in five young people taking the
apprenticeship route by 2020
To prepare to meet the entitlement
              for all
A stronger portfolio of level 1 and level 2
provision
46.9% of young people in Y&H gained 5 A*-Cs at
GCSE including English and Maths in 2009
Providing the right curriculum mix for the 53.1%
• High quality relevant level 2 opportunities
• Foundation learning - nationally recognised
qualifications and clear progression routes
To prepare to meet the entitlement
              for all
NEET
• Directing funding away from areas of
demographic decline and towards areas with high
NEET
• Increasing the availability of mainstream
provision that starts throughout the year
• Converting Entry to Employment to Foundation
Learning – no separate programme or systems
• Aligning £34m of ESF NEET funding
To prepare to meet the entitlement
              for all
Learners with Learning Difficulties and or
Disabilities
• Directing funding to increasing the supply of high
quality local specialist provision
• Commissioning appropriate provision from the
network of Independent Specialist Providers

Vulnerable groups
• Directing resources to high quality provision
which meets their needs (e.g. looked after children, teenage
mothers, young offenders)
To prepare to meet the entitlement
              for all
 Allocating growth places in FE and schools
Commission additional provision from providers
responding to priorities set out in Local Area
Statement of Needs and the Regional
Commissioning Statement
To prepare to meet the entitlement
              for all
Information, Advice and Guidance
• High quality advice on the full range of options
available, within the context of the current and
future job markets.
• Direct the information, advice and guidance
services at reducing the number of young people
in the ‘not known’ category
National Priorities and key national
             changes
14-19 Qualification Strategy
      14-19 Strategy




NATIONAL ROUTES
                        14-19 Qualification
                       Hierarchy by 2011/12




• Should do a full national route (1 of 4)

• If not available, then component

• If component not available then Stand Alone

• Before funding anything else
The commissioning cycle
  October – December 2009

Local and regional
• Data analysis
• 14-19 plan refresh
• Local Area Statement of Need
• Regional Commissioning Statements
•
      October 09 –Jan 2010


National

• Funding envelope confirmed
• National Statement of Priorities published
    January – March 2010
• January - Consolidated / sustainable
baseline allocations (without negotiated growth)
communicated to providers: 16 – 18 Learner Responsive
(School Sixth Form and FE Youth);
       January – March 2010



• January/Feb – potential growth numbers discussed
with providers
• February – growth agreed with shadow RPG
• March – final schools and FE allocations issued to
providers
   The National Commissioning
Framework – the system post April
 The National Commissioning Framework
Issued 16th November

Details on how the system will work including:

Planning and allocations
Funding, payment and Assurance
Provider quality assurance system
Commissioning for LLDD
Academies
Apprenticeships
Learner eligibility
Youth custody
Data

Consultation responses by 5th Feb to
NCFConsultation@lsc.gov.uk
  National Commissioning Framework

• Timetable for delivery

  - Development, including testing in 2009
  - Consultation period: November 2009 – February 2010
  - Consultation report – February 2010
  - Revised version for approval - March 2010
  - Published by YPLA – April 2010
  - Guidance applies to planning process for provision to be
    delivered in 2011/12 Academic Year
  - Some aspects, including funding flows, apply from April 2010
National Budgets and funding
           policy
Local area indicators and progress
       towards entitlement


                            GCSEs inc English




                                                                                        in the achievement




                                                                                                             in the achievement
                                                                                         PP Inequality gap




                                                                                                              PP Inequality gap




                                                                                                                                  % Participation of
                            Achievement of 5




                                                                                                                                                        % 16-18 year old
                                                   % Level 2 @ 19




                                                                       % Level 3 @ 19
                             and maths (%)




                                                                                                                                   17 year olds in
                              or more A*-C




                                                                                                                                    education or
                                                                                             of L3 @ 19




                                                                                                                  of L2 @ 19




                                                                                                                                      training




                                                                                                                                                                           NEET
 North East Lincolnshire         45.4              65                  34                 20                      21                    72              6.4 (6.3)
 North Lincolnshire              45.0              73                  43                 31                      26                    76              6.2 (5.8)
 East Riding                     51.8              77               48 (52.4)             30                      28                    87              4.0 (4.0)
 Kingston upon Hull              36.5              65                  34                 21                      21                    75             10.6 (9.2)
 North Yorkshire                 58.1              80                  56               33 (28)                   25                    74              4.8 (3.3)
 York                            59.1              74                  51               25 (27)                   29                    77              4.2 (3.3)
 Barnsley                        39.1              63                  34                 27                      29                    69              7.9 (7.1)
 Doncaster                       42.4              64                  35                 23                      26                    72              7,7 (7.2)
 Rotherham                       46.5           68 (74.1)              39                 26                      29                    71              6.9 (7.1)
 Sheffield                       44.0           68 (74.2)              42                 22                      21                    75              8.5 (7.8)
 Bradford                        41.2           68 (73.5)              40                 21                      20                    78              8.8 (8.1)
 Calderdale                      50.5              74                  46                 26                      23                    76              8.3 (6.4)
 Kirklees                        47.0              69                  45                 25                      25                    77              9.7 (6.5)
 Leeds                           45.6           68 (75.2)           42 (49.0)             28                      30                    71              9.5 (6.8)
 Wakefield                       49.1              70                  43                 25                      26                    67             10.2 (6.9)
 Yorkshire and the Humber        46.9              73                  44                 28                      25                    74                 7.9
 England                         49.7              77                  50                 25                      24                    79                 6.7
              PSA Targets
• 82% of young people achieve Level 2 by the age
  of 19 in 2011
• 54% of young people achieve Level 3 by age 19
• Reduce the proportion of 16-18 year olds NEET
  to 7.7% by 2010
• Reduce gap in attainment of Level 3 at 19
  between those who were in receipt of free
  school meals and those who were not
• Address the disadvantage that individuals
  experience because of their
  gender, race, disability, age, sexual
  orientation, religion or belief
        Projected participation


• 97% of 16 year olds participating in
  education or training in 2010-11
• 92% of 17 year olds participating
Investment Strategy
16-18 budget is rising to match participation
• Increase of £450 million for learning places in
  2010-11 (6.2% increase in participation)
• Base rate for funding maintained for 2010-11
• Real terms increases of 0.9% in 2011-12 and
  2012-13
• Efficiency savings of 3% across 2011-13
• Increasing funding for Additional Learning
  Support
• Increasing funding for specialist LLDD 12.9% in
  2010-11
• Changes in EMAs
Implications for E&D

  Real opportunity for:

1. Local planning to mean stronger response to community needs

2. No more NEET
   100% participation 16-19 to be 100% purposeful participation

3. To focus decision makers on narrowing the gap

								
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