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Population trends and projections

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					Population trends and projections
       Over the last 20 years the population has been increasing
       This followed a historic decline from the 1930s through to the 1980s
       In the 2001-7 period there was an increase of 1.4% in the Borough
       This was a lower rate of increase than both Inner London (4.6%) and very
       similar to Outer London (1.6%).
       The population is projected to continue rising but at a slower rate
       The increase is projected as 3.0% in the period 2008-11
       The subsequent rise between 2011-21 will only be a further 5.6%
       In the 2011-21 period, the largest percentage increases are projected to be in
       the 40-54 group (17.6%), followed by the 55 to 64 group (14.8%) and then the
       5-19s (12.1%).




  Title: London population trends, 1971-2007
       Inner/Outer London Population,




                                        6000


                                        5000


                                        4000
                    000's




                                        3000


                                        2000


                                        1000


                                           0

                                               1971 1981 1991 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

                                                      Inner London             Outer London


  Title: LBHF population trends, 1971-2007

                                 200

                                 190
        LBHF Population, 000's




                                 180

                                 170

                                 160

                                 150
                                 140

                                 130

                                 120
                                 110

                                 100

                                          1971 1981 1991 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

                                                                       LBHF

  Source: Censuses and Mid Year Estimates (ONS)
  Note: data relates to persons present except 2001 which relates to usual residents
                             Components of population change

                                  •    In the 2002-7 period, the main component of population increase in the
                                       Borough has been natural change, the excess of births over deaths
                                  •    The number of births is at a higher level now than the average for the 1990s
                                  •    Recent increase in natural change is a London-wide phenomenon
                                  •    In the last 2 years for which there is data there have been net migration
                                       losses of around 1000 a year
                                  •    This is at a much lower level than the 1998-2001 period when population
                                       increase was led by migration gains
                                  •    In 2006-7 there was a migration loss of 1,580 to other parts of the country and
                                       this was not outweighed by international migration, asylum seekers and visitor
                                       switchers
                                  •    Of this, asylum seekers only form a relatively small number, estimated at
                                       around 120


Components of population change, 1991-2007




Source: ONS




Natural change, 1991-2007
                     3,000
                     2,500
  Population 000's




                     2,000                                                                                          Births
                     1,500
                     1,000                                                                                          Deaths
                      500
                        0
                             1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007   Net change

Source: ONS
                 Age Structure

                                  •    The Borough has a higher proportion of young adults aged 25-39 (37%) than
                                       London and the rest of the country
                                  •    Conversely, the proportion (28%) of children and young adults (0-24s) is
                                       lower than in London and the rest of the country
                                  •    Some 22% of the population is aged 50 or over, which is about the same as
                                       Inner London generally but lower than the average for Outer London.



Age structure, % total population, 2007




Data Source: Mid-Year Estimates, ONS




Age structure, % total population, 2007
                                  100%
                                             4.9        4.5          6.5          5.7       7.8
                                             5.2        6.9                                          75+
                                  90%                                             6.0
                                                                     9.5                    8.2
                                            12.1        11.8                                         65 to 74
                                  80%                                            14.1
                                                                     15.5
   percentage of the population




                                                                                           17.8
                                  70%       13.5        13.7                                         50 to 64
                                                                                 14.8
                                                                     14.9                            40 to 49
                                  60%                                                      14.7

                                  50%                                                                25 to 39
                                            36.5        34.4                     28.2
                                                                     24.8
                                  40%                                                      20.5
                                                                                                     17 to 24

                                  30%
                                                                                 10.8      10.7      11 to 16
                                                        13.4         12.7
                                            10.8
                                  20%
                                                                     6.1          6.6       7.5      5 to 10
                                             4.9        4.8
                                  10%        5.8        5.3          6.0          6.8       6.8
                                             6.3        7.0          6.8          7.0       5.9
                                                                                                     0 to 4
                                      0%
                                           LBHF     Inner London Outer London   Greater   England
                                                                                London

Data Source: Mid-Year Estimates, ONS
For the latest data on the following indicators, please check the Borough Profile 2006.
There are no new updates for 2008.


   Household composition

   Ethnicity – ethnic minorities

   Ethnicity – white Irish

   Religious groups

				
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Description: Population trends and projections