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					Population projections
The main purpose of producing population projections is to provide estimates
of the population in later years; the resulting information supports future
government or service planning which is affected by the numbers in the
population.

The 2003 - based mid year population estimates was projected forward to
give an estimate of future population changes over the next 25 years - 2005 to
2028. To give an indication of the expected yearly changes, the projected
population estimates were compared to the population count at census 2001
(figs 3 and 4). The uncertainty surrounding demographic behaviour suggests
they should (i.e. projections), however be cautiously interpreted as estimates
of future populations.

The findings generated from the projections are summarised in the following
key points:
   • In both Watford and Three Rivers, the highest increases are expected
       in the 75+ age groups. Over the next 25 years, the population of this
       age group in Watford is expected to have increased by 38.9%.
       Comparative figures for Three Rivers show expected increases of
       60.8%.
   • In Watford, the trends show expected increases in both 65-74 and 75+
       at similar rates; then from 2019, 65-74 increases at a slower rate in
       comparison to the 75+ age group. By the end of 2028 this population
       group is expected to have increased by 26.8%. In contrast, this
       population group consistently increased at a slower rate than the 75+
       age group, with an overall increase of 25.2% by 2028.
   • Steady increases in the working age group, 20-64 (expected to sustain
       the economy which supports all essential services), are, however, at
       significantly low rates in comparison to the older age groups. By 2028,
       this group will have risen by 7.1% and 11.6% in Watford and Three
       Rivers respectively.
   • The population of the 15-19 age group in Watford is expected to
       gradually increase. By 2010, this changes, with decreases of up to
       about 4% by 2028. This is a reverse of the trend in Three Rivers; here,
       this population group is projected to increase by 22.4% by the year
       2028.


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                                •         The population of children under five, and the 5-14 age groups are
                                          expected to decline in Watford. By the year 2028, these groups will
                                          have decreased by 2.5% and 13% respectively. In contrast, these age
                                          groups are expected to be on the increase in Three Rivers; with
                                          increases of 13.1% and 10.8% respectively by the year 2028.

Overall, these findings suggest that there will be relatively few births in
Watford, and any increases in the population is expected to be sustained by
immigration of working class, and the older population groups. In contrast,
Three Rivers is expected to have increases in all the population groups, with
relatively more births, fewer deaths, and migration.


                                                    Fig 3 2003- based projected population in Watford, 2005 - 2028: annual
                                                    age-specific percentage changes in comparison to census 2001 estimate

                                70.0
                                                                   census year                                         census year
                                60.0


                                50.0
 percentage changes from 2001




                                40.0


                                30.0


                                20.0


                                10.0


                                    0.0
                                          2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
                                -10.0


                                -20.0


                                -30.0

                                                                                 0-4   5-14    15-19     20-64     65-74      75+




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                                              Fig 4 2003- based projected population in Three Rivers, 2005 - 2028: annual
                                                age-specific percentage changes in comparison to census 2001 estimate

                               70.0

                                                                 census year                                      census year
                               60.0


                               50.0
percentage changes from 2001




                               40.0


                               30.0


                               20.0


                               10.0


                                0.0
                                       2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
                               -10.0


                               -20.0


                               -30.0

                                                                               0-4   5-14   15-19     20-64     65-74      75+




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Description: Population projections