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LBC 2007 Population Estimates

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					                                                                     LBC 2007 Population Estimates1
                                                                                                    Published October 2008



Luton Borough Council produced its first set of population estimates a year ago for mid-2006. We
have now completed the same exercise to derive estimates for mid-2007.           Based on the all
available evidence, we estimate the population of Luton in 2007 to be approximately 203,800,
based on the average of the alternatives listed below2:


Table 1: Luton Population Estimates

Data Source(s):                                                                              2006              2007               %
                                                                                           Estimate          Estimate           Change

ONS Mid Year Estimate                                                                       186,800           188,800             1.1%

GP Registration                                                                              203,500           204,500             0.5%
GP registrations for under 15’s and over 55’s, the ONS MYE for 16-54
year olds and an estimate of migrant workers based on WRS (including                         198,700           200,800             1.1%
dependents over 17).
              3
Child Benefit data for 0-15 year olds, ONS MYE for 16+ and an
estimate of migrant workers based on WRS (including dependents over                          196,700           198,500             0.9%
17).
GP Registrations plus an estimate of migrant workers based on WRS
(including dependents over 17) – assuming they are not already                               211,300           212,300             0.5%
registered with GP’s.
              3
Child Benefit data for 0-15 year olds, GP Registrations for 16+ (under
the assumption that migrant workers and already included i.e. they all                       202,200           202,900             0.4%
register with their GP).

LBC Population Estimate                                                                     202,500           203,800             0.7%


The level of annual population increase (+0.7%) is not as great as that estimated by the ONS (at
+1.1%), but fundamentally, we believe the population is larger by fifteen thousand people.

        1
          Provisional Estimates - subject to change when new data is released.
        2
          All figures rounded to nearest 100.
        3
          To derive the LBC 2007 Population Estimate, Child Benefit figures for 2006 have been re-used. This is because Child Benefit data for
        2007 is not yet available. HM Revenue & Customs anticipate this data may be available in early 2009, but cannot provide accurate
        timelines at present.


Research and Intelligence Team
Department of Environment and Regeneration
                                                                                    LBC 2007 Population Estimates
                                                                                                        Published October 2008



Table 2: Luton Population Estimates by Quinary Age Group
Further data manipulation and analysis reveals the age profile of both estimates for comparison,
for 2006 and 2007.

                                              2006                                                  2007
 Age Band                             ONS MYE     LBC Estimate                              ONS MYE    LBC Estimate4

 All Ages                                 186.8                      202.5                     188.8                      203.8

 0-4                                       14.5                       14.4                      15.1                       14.7
 5-9                                       12.1                       13.3                      12.0                       13.3
 10- 14                                    12.3                       13.3                      12.2                       13.3
 15 - 19                                   13.5                       14.6                      13.3                       14.6
 20 - 24                                   15.3                       18.2                      16.3                       18.7
 25 - 29                                   15.0                       17.7                      15.7                       18.1
 30 - 34                                   13.3                       16.1                      13.0                       15.9
 35 - 39                                   14.6                       15.8                      14.3                       15.4
 40 - 44                                   13.5                       14.9                      13.9                       15.0
 45 - 49                                   11.8                       12.6                      11.9                       12.8
 50 - 54                                    9.9                       10.6                      10.1                       10.8
 55 - 59                                    9.9                       10.0                       9.7                        9.7
 60 - 64                                    7.9                        8.1                       8.2                        8.4
 65 - 69                                    6.9                        7.0                       6.6                        6.8
 70 - 74                                    6.2                        6.0                       6.3                        6.2
 75 - 79                                    4.6                        4.5                       4.7                        4.6
 80 - 84                                    3.1                        3.0                       3.1                        3.0
 85 - 89                                    1.6                        1.6                       1.7                        1.7
 90+                                        0.8                        0.8                       0.8                        0.8


As in 2006, these latest figures also highlight that the largest age category for difference between
Luton Borough Council Population Estimates and the Office for National Statistics Mid Year
Estimates is 20-34 year olds. The influencing factor in this is migration which the Council believes
has been underestimated by the ONS. There are also differences in those aged 5-19 and,
although to a lesser extent, 35-54 year olds.




           4
             LBC Population Estimates for 2007 are provisional. They will be updated when 2007 Child Benefit data becomes available from HM
           Revenue & Customs.


Research and Intelligence Team
Department of Environment and Regeneration
                                                     LBC 2007 Population Estimates
                                                                 Published October 2008


CHART 1: Luton 2007 Population Estimates by Quinary Age Group and Gender


                         FEMALE                                MALE
                            ONS MYE                        ONS MYE
                            LBC Estimate                 LBC Estimate
        Age Group




                                    Population (thousands)




Research and Intelligence Team
Department of Environment and Regeneration

				
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