Numerical analysis of the Metropolis algorithms

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							  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms

 Peter Mathé
                            Numerical analysis of the Metropolis
Introduction
                                        algorithms
Numerical
integration
Formal problem
formulation
Two approaches
                                                Peter Mathé
from ergodic theory
Negative results
                                           Weierstrass Institute, Berlin
Metropolis
method
Ball walk                E-mail: mathe@wias-berlin.de
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
                      Homepage: http://www.wias-berlin.de/people/mathe
Metropolis filter

Conclusions                             joint work with Erich Novak, Jena
References

                                         Fleurance, June 2007
                      Outline

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms          1   Introduction
 Peter Mathé

Introduction
                      2   Numerical integration
Numerical
                            Formal problem formulation
integration
Formal problem
                            Two approaches from ergodic theory
formulation
Two approaches
                            Negative results
from ergodic theory
Negative results

Metropolis            3   Metropolis method
method
Ball walk                   Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with              Uniform ergodicity
Metropolis filter

Conclusions
                            Ball walk with Metropolis filter
References
                      4   Conclusions
                      Situation

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms
                      We are given an integrable weight function : Ω → R+ on
 Peter Mathé
                      some (Ω, µ).

Introduction          Task
Numerical
integration
                        1   Sample according to
Formal problem
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory                          µ (dx) ∝ (x) µ(dx)!
Negative results

Metropolis
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
                        2   Compute   Ω   (x) µ(dx)!
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter

Conclusions
                      Remark
References
                      Typically the second problem is as hard as the fitrst one!
                      Statistical Physics

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms
                      Here
 Peter Mathé              Ω the collection of all states of a physical system.
Introduction              E(x) the energy assigned to x ∈ Ω,
Numerical
integration
                          the probab. µE of a state is proportional to e−θE(x) .
Formal problem
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results

Metropolis
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter

Conclusions

References
                      Statistical Physics

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms
                      Here
 Peter Mathé              Ω the collection of all states of a physical system.
Introduction              E(x) the energy assigned to x ∈ Ω,
Numerical
integration
                          the probab. µE of a state is proportional to e−θE(x) .
Formal problem
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
                      Task
Negative results
                          Determine states of minimal energy (ground states).
Metropolis
method
Ball walk
                          Let A be an observable (function of the states).
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
                          Determine
Metropolis filter
                                                             A(x)e−θE(x)
Conclusions                       A :=     A(x) µE (dx) =                  !
                                         Ω                      e−θE(x)
References
                      Statistics

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis              Let X1 , X2 , . . . be an i.i.d. sample according to some
  algorithms
                          model (Pθ ) , θ ∈ Θ.
 Peter Mathé
                          Let L(y |θ) be the likelihood function of the data, given
Introduction
                          the true parameter.
Numerical
integration
Formal problem
                          Bayes analysis provides us at any given prior p(θ)as
formulation
Two approaches
                          Posterior distribution
from ergodic theory
Negative results

Metropolis                                    π(θ) ∝ L(y |θ)p(θ)
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter

Conclusions

References
                      Statistics

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis              Let X1 , X2 , . . . be an i.i.d. sample according to some
  algorithms
                          model (Pθ ) , θ ∈ Θ.
 Peter Mathé
                          Let L(y |θ) be the likelihood function of the data, given
Introduction
                          the true parameter.
Numerical
integration
Formal problem
                          Bayes analysis provides us at any given prior p(θ)as
formulation
Two approaches
                          Posterior distribution
from ergodic theory
Negative results

Metropolis                                    π(θ) ∝ L(y |θ)p(θ)
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter

Conclusions           Task
References
                          Determine the posterior distribution!
                          Determine functionals     f dπ!
                      The problem

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms          Task
 Peter Mathé          Given any pair (f , ) of some integrand f and weight , find
Introduction
                                                           f (x) (x) µ(dx)
Numerical
integration
                             S(f , ) :=   f (x) µ (dx) =                   ,
Formal problem
                                                               (x) µ(dx)
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results
                       by using a finite number of (random) data
Metropolis            (f (xi ), (xi )), i = 1, . . . , n !
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter

Conclusions

References
                       The problem

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms            Task
 Peter Mathé            Given any pair (f , ) of some integrand f and weight , find
Introduction
                                                                f (x) (x) µ(dx)
Numerical
integration
                                S(f , ) :=    f (x) µ (dx) =                    ,
Formal problem
                                                                    (x) µ(dx)
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results
                         by using a finite number of (random) data
Metropolis              (f (xi ), (xi )), i = 1, . . . , n !
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with         Input Let (f , ) by any problem instance,
Metropolis filter

Conclusions          method Let ϑ(f , ) any (Monte Carlo ) method,
References                                                            1/2
                       error e(ϑ, (f , )) := E |S(f , ) − ϑ(f , )|2         (RMS).
                      Ergodic theorem

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms          Proposition (Simple Monte Carlo)
 Peter Mathé
                      Let X1 , X2 , . . . be a sample from an ergodic Markov chain
Introduction          with invariant distribution µ. For f , ∈ L1 (Ω, µ), > 0 we
Numerical
integration
                      have
Formal problem
                                       n
formulation
                                       i=1 f (Xi ) (Xi )      f (x) (x) µ(dx)
Two approaches
from ergodic theory   ϑsimp (f , ) =
                       n                  n              −→                   = S(f , ).
Negative results
                                          i=1 (Xi )               (x) µ(dx)
Metropolis
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
                      Remark
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter         Need sample according to µ!
Conclusions
                          Simple Monte Carlo is non-adaptive! It does not use
References
                          for obtaining the sample.
                      Ergodic theorem

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms
                      Proposition (General Monte Carlo)
 Peter Mathé
                      Let X1 , X2 , . . . be a sample from an ergodic Markov chain
Introduction
                      with invariant distribution µ . For f ∈ L1 (Ω, µ ) we have
Numerical
integration
Formal problem
                                           n
formulation
Two approaches               ϑn (f , ) =         f (Xi )−→   f (x) µ (dx) = S(f , ).
from ergodic theory
Negative results                           i=1
Metropolis
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
                      Remark
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter         Need sample according to µ (asymptotically)!
Conclusions
                          It is adaptive with respect to , since it uses        to obtain
References
                          the sample!
                      Basic questions

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms

 Peter Mathé

Introduction          Both methods are analyzed in literature! Recent
Numerical             study [Bassetti/Diaconis]!
integration
Formal problem
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results

Metropolis
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter

Conclusions

References
                      Basic questions

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms

 Peter Mathé

Introduction          Both methods are analyzed in literature! Recent
Numerical             study [Bassetti/Diaconis]!
integration
Formal problem        The principle questions we want to address are
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results
                      Problem
Metropolis                Which method to apply in specific application?
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter

Conclusions

References
                      Basic questions

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms

 Peter Mathé

Introduction          Both methods are analyzed in literature! Recent
Numerical             study [Bassetti/Diaconis]!
integration
Formal problem        The principle questions we want to address are
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results
                      Problem
Metropolis                Which method to apply in specific application?
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
                          Why and/or when to apply Metropolis algorithm?
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter

Conclusions

References
                      A large class (global assumptions on )

  Numerical
analysis of the
                      We let
  Metropolis
  algorithms                                                        sup
                           FC (Ω) = {(f , ) | f   ∞   ≤ 1,   > 0,          ≤ C}.
 Peter Mathé                                                         inf
Introduction

Numerical
integration
Formal problem
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results

Metropolis
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter

Conclusions

References
                      A large class (global assumptions on )

  Numerical
analysis of the
                      We let
  Metropolis
  algorithms                                                             sup
                            FC (Ω) = {(f , ) | f   ∞   ≤ 1,       > 0,          ≤ C}.
 Peter Mathé                                                              inf
Introduction

Numerical
                      Proposition
integration
Formal problem
formulation           For each Monte Carlo method ϑn , using n values of f and ,
Two approaches
from ergodic theory   we have the following bound:
Negative results

Metropolis
method                                             1        C
Ball walk                       e(ϑn , FC (Ω)) ≥        2     ,   2n ≥ C − 1.
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
                                                   6        n
Metropolis filter

Conclusions            “Simple Monte Carlo” is optimal.
References
                      A large class (global assumptions on )

  Numerical
analysis of the
                      We let
  Metropolis
  algorithms                                                             sup
                            FC (Ω) = {(f , ) | f   ∞   ≤ 1,       > 0,          ≤ C}.
 Peter Mathé                                                              inf
Introduction

Numerical
                      Proposition
integration
Formal problem
formulation           For each Monte Carlo method ϑn , using n values of f and ,
Two approaches
from ergodic theory   we have the following bound:
Negative results

Metropolis
method                                             1        C
Ball walk                       e(ϑn , FC (Ω)) ≥        2     ,   2n ≥ C − 1.
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
                                                   6        n
Metropolis filter

Conclusions            “Simple Monte Carlo” is optimal.
References

                      Remark
                      Need structure!
                      Class with local structure on d-dim. ball

  Numerical
analysis of the           Let f and be defined on the unit ball B d ⊂ Rd and µΩ
  Metropolis
  algorithms              the normalized Lebesgue measure.
 Peter Mathé              The weights > 0 on Rα (B d ) are log-concave, i.e.,
                                       (λx + (1 − λ)y ) ≥ (x)λ · (y )1−λ ,
Introduction

Numerical
integration
Formal problem
formulation
                          The logarithm of     is Lipschitz continuous, i.e.,
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results                      | log (x) − log (y )| ≤ α x − y       2.
Metropolis
method                The class of input is
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter              F α (B d ) = (f , ) |   ∈ Rα (B d ), f   2,   ≤1 .
Conclusions

References
                      Class with local structure on d-dim. ball

  Numerical
analysis of the           Let f and be defined on the unit ball B d ⊂ Rd and µΩ
  Metropolis
  algorithms              the normalized Lebesgue measure.
 Peter Mathé              The weights > 0 on are log-concave, i.e.,
                                       (λx + (1 − λ)y ) ≥ (x)λ · (y )1−λ ,
Introduction

Numerical
integration
Formal problem
formulation
                          The logarithm of     is Lipschitz continuous, i.e.,
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results                      | log (x) − log (y )| ≤ α x − y       2.
Metropolis
method                The class of input is
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter              F α (B d ) = (f , ) |   ∈ Rα (B d ), f   2,   ≤1 .
Conclusions

References

                      Problem
                      Can we exploit this structure?
                      Lower bounds for non-adaptive methods

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
                      Proposition
  algorithms
                      For each non-adaptive method ϑn we have
 Peter Mathé

                                                     1   α   d/2
Introduction
                                e(ϑn , F α (B d )) ≥ √             · n−1/2 ,
Numerical
integration
                                                    2 d! 2
Formal problem

                       if 2n ≥ nd and 2n ≥ (α/log 4)d und α ≥ 2.
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results

Metropolis
method                    This bound is bad wrt. α!
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity        Local structure cannot be exploited by non-adaptive
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter
                          methods! In particular this holds true for Simple Monte
Conclusions
                          Carlo.
References
                      Lower bounds for non-adaptive methods

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
                      Proposition
  algorithms
                      For each non-adaptive method ϑn we have
 Peter Mathé

                                                     1   α   d/2
Introduction
                                e(ϑn , F α (B d )) ≥ √             · n−1/2 ,
Numerical
integration
                                                    2 d! 2
Formal problem

                       if 2n ≥ nd and 2n ≥ (α/log 4)d und α ≥ 2.
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results

Metropolis
method                    This bound is bad wrt. α!
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity        Local structure cannot be exploited by non-adaptive
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter
                          methods! In particular this holds true for Simple Monte
Conclusions
                          Carlo.
References
                      Task
                      Design Metropolis algorithm!
                      The Metropolis step

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis          Procedure Metropolis-step(x, )
  algorithms
                      Input      : current position x, function ;
 Peter Mathé
                      Output : next position;
Introduction          Propose: y := symmetric-proposal-step(x);
Numerical
integration
                      Accept:
Formal problem
formulation
                      if (y ) ≥ rand() · (x) then
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
                         return y
Negative results
                      else
Metropolis
method
                         return x
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
                      end
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter
                      Source [M(RT )2 ]: N. Metropolis, A. W. Rosenbluth, M. N.
Conclusions
                      Rosenbluth, A. H. Teller, and E. Teller. Equations of state
References
                      calculations by fast computing machines. J. Chem. Phys.,
                      21:1087–1092, 1953.
                      The Metropolis step

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis          Procedure Metropolis-step(x, )
  algorithms
                      Input      : current position x, function ;
 Peter Mathé
                      Output : next position;
Introduction          Propose: y := symmetric-proposal-step(x);
Numerical
integration
                      Accept:
Formal problem
formulation
                      if (y ) ≥ rand() · (x) then
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
                         return y
Negative results
                      else
Metropolis
method
                         return x
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
                      end
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter
                      Source [M(RT )2 ]: N. Metropolis, A. W. Rosenbluth, M. N.
Conclusions
                      Rosenbluth, A. H. Teller, and E. Teller. Equations of state
References
                      calculations by fast computing machines. J. Chem. Phys.,
                      21:1087–1092, 1953.
                      Ball walk

  Numerical
analysis of the       We consider the following symmetric proposal step:
  Metropolis
  algorithms          Procedure Ball-walk-step(x, δ)
 Peter Mathé          Input      : current position x; δ > 0;
Introduction          Output : next position;
Numerical             Propose: Choose y ∈ B(x, δ) uniformly ;
integration
Formal problem        Accept:
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
                      if y ∈ Ω then
Negative results          return y ;
Metropolis            else
method
Ball walk                 return x;
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with        end
Metropolis filter

Conclusions

References            Remark
                      The ball walk is often used. It is a major ingredient in volume
                      algorithms, see [Lovász/Simonovits].
                      Ball walk

  Numerical
analysis of the       We consider the following symmetric proposal step:
  Metropolis
  algorithms          Procedure Ball-walk-step(x, δ)
 Peter Mathé          Input      : current position x; δ > 0;
Introduction          Output : next position;
Numerical             Propose: Choose y ∈ B(x, δ) uniformly ;
integration
Formal problem        Accept:
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
                      if y ∈ Ω then
Negative results          return y ;
Metropolis            else
method
Ball walk                 return x;
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with        end
Metropolis filter

Conclusions

References            Remark
                      The ball walk is often used. It is a major ingredient in volume
                      algorithms, see [Lovász/Simonovits].
                      Uniform ergodicity

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis          Definition
  algorithms
                      A Markov chain K with invariant distribution π is said to be
 Peter Mathé
                      uniformly ergodic, if there are constants M < ∞ and
Introduction          0 < η < 1 such that
Numerical
integration                          sup K n (x, ·) − π(·)   tv   ≤ Mη n
Formal problem
formulation                           x∈Ω
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results

Metropolis
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter

Conclusions

References
                      Uniform ergodicity

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis          Definition
  algorithms
                      A Markov chain K with invariant distribution π is said to be
 Peter Mathé
                      uniformly ergodic, if there are constants M < ∞ and
Introduction          0 < η < 1 such that
Numerical
integration                          sup K n (x, ·) − π(·)   tv   ≤ Mη n
Formal problem
formulation                           x∈Ω
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results

Metropolis
                      Theorem
method                ([Mathé-Markov-chains],                              )
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
                      Let K be a reversible uniformly ergodic markov chain with
Metropolis filter
                      spectral gap 1 − β1 (K ) > 0. Then
Conclusions
                                                                       1 + β1 (K )
References             lim          sup e(ϑn , f )2 · n =        sup               .
                      n→∞          f∈ f 2                      f ∈ f 2 1 − β1 (K )
                      Uniform ergodicity

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis          Definition
  algorithms
                      A Markov chain K with invariant distribution π is said to be
 Peter Mathé
                      uniformly ergodic, if there are constants M < ∞ and
Introduction          0 < η < 1 such that
Numerical
integration                            sup K n (x, ·) − π(·)   tv   ≤ Mη n
Formal problem
formulation                            x∈Ω
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results

Metropolis
                      Theorem
method                (                         ,[Mathé/Novak-Metropolis])
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
                      Let K be a reversible uniformly ergodic markov chain with
Metropolis filter
                      spectral gap 1 − β1 (K ) > 0. Then
Conclusions
                                                                         1 + β1 (K ,δ )
References             lim sup sup e(ϑn , f )2 · n = sup sup                            .
                      n→∞ ∈R (Ω) f ∈ f
                               α       2                 ∈Rα (Ω) f ∈ f 2 1 − β1 (K ,δ )
                      Ergodicity of the ball walk

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms          Let Ω be a convex body in Rd .
 Peter Mathé
                      Proposition
Introduction

Numerical
                          The ball walk is uniformly ergodic.
integration
Formal problem            The uniform distribution µΩ on Ω is the invariant
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
                          distribution.
Negative results
                          The spectral gap depends on the geometry of Ω.
Metropolis
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter

Conclusions

References
                      Ergodicity of the ball walk

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms          Let Ω be a convex body in Rd .
 Peter Mathé
                      Proposition
Introduction

Numerical
                          The ball walk is uniformly ergodic.
integration
Formal problem            The uniform distribution µΩ on Ω is the invariant
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
                          distribution.
Negative results
                          The spectral gap depends on the geometry of Ω.
Metropolis
method
Ball walk
                          For Ω = B d we have for δ    δ −1/2 that
Uniform ergodicity


                                               1 − β1 ≥ c/d 2 .
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter

Conclusions

References
                      Ergodicity of the ball walk

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms          Let Ω be a convex body in Rd .
 Peter Mathé
                      Proposition
Introduction

Numerical
                          The ball walk is uniformly ergodic.
integration
Formal problem            The uniform distribution µΩ on Ω is the invariant
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
                          distribution.
Negative results
                          The spectral gap depends on the geometry of Ω.
Metropolis
method
Ball walk
                          For Ω = B d we have for δ    δ −1/2 that
Uniform ergodicity


                                               1 − β1 ≥ c/d 2 .
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter

Conclusions

References
                      The Metropolis filter

  Numerical
analysis of the       Procedure Metropolis-step K ,δ (x, , δ)
  Metropolis
  algorithms          Input     : current position x, δ > 0, function ;
 Peter Mathé          Output : next position;
Introduction          Propose: y := Ball-walk-step(x, δ);
Numerical             Accept:
integration
Formal problem        if (y ) ≥ (x) then
formulation
Two approaches
                         return y
from ergodic theory
Negative results      else if (y ) ≥ rand() · (x) then
Metropolis               return y
method
Ball walk             else
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
                         return x
Metropolis filter
                      end
Conclusions

References
                      The Metropolis filter

  Numerical
analysis of the       Procedure Metropolis-step K ,δ (x, , δ)
  Metropolis
  algorithms          Input     : current position x, δ > 0, function ;
 Peter Mathé          Output : next position;
Introduction          Propose: y := Ball-walk-step(x, δ);
Numerical             Accept:
integration
Formal problem        if (y ) ≥ (x) then
formulation
Two approaches
                         return y
from ergodic theory
Negative results      else if (y ) ≥ rand() · (x) then
Metropolis               return y
method
Ball walk             else
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
                         return x
Metropolis filter
                      end
Conclusions

References
                      The Metropolis filter

  Numerical
analysis of the       Procedure Metropolis-step K ,δ (x, , δ)
  Metropolis
  algorithms          Input     : current position x, δ > 0, function ;
 Peter Mathé          Output : next position;
Introduction          Propose: y := Ball-walk-step(x, δ);
Numerical             Accept:
integration
Formal problem        if (y ) ≥ (x) then
formulation
Two approaches
                         return y
from ergodic theory
Negative results      else if (y ) ≥ rand() · (x) then
Metropolis               return y
method
Ball walk             else
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
                         return x
Metropolis filter
                      end
Conclusions

References
                      The Metropolis filter

  Numerical
analysis of the       Procedure Metropolis-step K ,δ (x, , δ)
  Metropolis
  algorithms          Input     : current position x, δ > 0, function ;
 Peter Mathé          Output : next position;
Introduction          Propose: y := Ball-walk-step(x, δ);
Numerical             Accept:
integration
Formal problem        if (y ) ≥ (x) then
formulation
Two approaches
                         return y
from ergodic theory
Negative results      else if (y ) ≥ rand() · (x) then
Metropolis               return y
method
Ball walk             else
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
                         return x
Metropolis filter
                      end
Conclusions

References
                      Remark
                      The ball walk is a Metropolis chain with (x) = χΩ (x).
                      Ergodicity of the Metropolis chain

  Numerical
analysis of the
                      We shall study the Metropolis chain as a perturbation of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms
                      ball walk!
 Peter Mathé

Introduction

Numerical
integration
Formal problem
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results

Metropolis
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter

Conclusions

References
                      Ergodicity of the Metropolis chain

  Numerical
analysis of the
                      We shall study the Metropolis chain as a perturbation of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms
                      ball walk!
 Peter Mathé
                      Let Ω ⊂ Rd be a convex body.
Introduction          Proposition
Numerical
integration               For each ∈ Rα (Ω) the Metropolis chain K    ,δ   is
Formal problem
formulation               uniformly ergodic.
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results
                          The invariant distribution is µ .
Metropolis                Uniformly for ∈ Rα (Ω) there is a common factor η of
method
Ball walk                 uniform ergodicity.
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter

Conclusions

References
                      Ergodicity of the Metropolis chain

  Numerical
analysis of the
                      We shall study the Metropolis chain as a perturbation of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms
                      ball walk!
 Peter Mathé
                      Let Ω ⊂ Rd be a convex body.
Introduction          Proposition
Numerical
integration               For each ∈ Rα (Ω) the Metropolis chain K      ,δ   is
Formal problem
formulation               uniformly ergodic.
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results
                          The invariant distribution is µ .
Metropolis                Uniformly for ∈ Rα (Ω) there is a common factor η of
method
Ball walk                 uniform ergodicity.
Uniform ergodicity                                 √
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter          If Ω = B d and δ = min 1/ d + 1, 1/α , then
Conclusions

References                                           c        1 1
                                          1 − β1 ≥     min     ,    .
                                                     d        d α
                      Convergence result

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms
                      Theorem
 Peter Mathé
                      Let X1 , X2 , . . . be a trajectory of the ball walk with Metropolis
Introduction          filter and ϑn (f , ) = 1/n n f (Xi ). Let
                                                      i=1
Numerical             δ ∗ = min (d + 1)−1/2 , α−1 . Then
integration
Formal problem
formulation
                               ∗                 √          √               √
Two approaches
from ergodic theory       e(Sn , F α (B d )) ·
                             δ                         ˜
                                                     n≤C·       d + 1 max       d + 1, α .
Negative results

Metropolis
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter

Conclusions

References
                      Convergence result

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms
                      Theorem
 Peter Mathé
                      Let X1 , X2 , . . . be a trajectory of the ball walk with Metropolis
Introduction          filter and ϑn (f , ) = 1/n n f (Xi ). Let
                                                      i=1
Numerical             δ ∗ = min (d + 1)−1/2 , α−1 . Then
integration
Formal problem
formulation
                               ∗                 √          √               √
Two approaches
from ergodic theory       e(Sn , F α (B d )) ·
                             δ                         ˜
                                                     n≤C·       d + 1 max       d + 1, α .
Negative results

Metropolis
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter           The rate is linear in α, independent of the dimension,
Conclusions                as compared to non-adaptive methods.
References
                      Convergence result

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms
                      Theorem
 Peter Mathé
                      Let X1 , X2 , . . . be a trajectory of the ball walk with Metropolis
Introduction          filter and ϑn (f , ) = 1/n n f (Xi ). Let
                                                      i=1
Numerical             δ ∗ = min (d + 1)−1/2 , α−1 . Then
integration
Formal problem
formulation
                               ∗                 √          √               √
Two approaches
from ergodic theory       e(Sn , F α (B d )) ·
                             δ                         ˜
                                                     n≤C·       d + 1 max       d + 1, α .
Negative results

Metropolis
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter           The rate is linear in α, independent of the dimension,
Conclusions                as compared to non-adaptive methods.
References
                           The local Lipschitz continuity can be exploited, if we
                           adjust the step size δ to the problem!
                      Conclusions

  Numerical
analysis of the
  Metropolis
  algorithms

 Peter Mathé
                         We analyzed the use of Markov chains for weighted
Introduction             numerical integration.
Numerical
integration
                         Without structural assumptions no Monte Carlo method
Formal problem
formulation              can be efficient, even Metropolis does not help!
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results
                         Under certain structure Metropolis can be superior to
Metropolis               other methods.
method                                                   √
Ball walk                Convergence rate typically is 1/ n, and the constant
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter
                         depends on the spectral gap.
Conclusions              The geometry of the domain plays a crucial role.
References
  Numerical
analysis of the
                      F. Bassetti and P. Diaconis.
  Metropolis
  algorithms
                      Examples comparing importance sampling and the
 Peter Mathé
                      Metropolis algorithm.
                      Illinois J. of Math., 50(1):67–91, 2006.
Introduction

Numerical             Gregory F. Lawler and Alan D. Sokal.
integration
Formal problem        Bounds on the L2 spectrum for Markov chains and
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
                      Markov processes: a generalization of Cheeger’s
Negative results
                      inequality.
Metropolis
method
                      Trans. Amer. Math. Soc., 309(2):557–580, 1988.
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
                      L. Lovász and M. Simonovits.
Metropolis filter
                      Random walks in a convex body and an improved volume
Conclusions
                      algorithm.
References
                      Random Structures Algorithms, 4(4):359–412, 1993.
                      Peter Mathé.
  Numerical           Numerical integration using Markov chains.
analysis of the
  Metropolis          Monte Carlo Methods Appl., 5(4):325–343, 1999.
  algorithms

 Peter Mathé
                      Peter Mathé and E. Novak.
                      Simple Monte Carlo and the Metropolis algorithm.
Introduction
                      submitted, 2006.
Numerical
integration
Formal problem        N. Metropolis, A. W. Rosenbluth, M. N. Rosenbluth, A. H.
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
                      Teller, and E. Teller.
Negative results
                      Equations of state calculations by fast computing
Metropolis
method
                      machines.
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
                      J. Chem. Phys., 21:1087–1092, 1953.
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter
                      Gareth O. Roberts and Jeffrey S. Rosenthal.
Conclusions
                      General state space Markov chains and MCMC
References
                      algorithms.
                      Probab. Surv., 1:20–71 (electronic), 2004.
  Numerical
analysis of the
                      A. Sokal.
  Metropolis
  algorithms
                      Monte Carlo methods in statistical mechanics:
 Peter Mathé
                      foundations and new algorithms.
                      In Functional integration (Cargèse, 1996), pages
Introduction
                      131–192. Plenum, New York, 1997.
Numerical
integration
Formal problem
formulation
Two approaches
from ergodic theory
Negative results

Metropolis
method
Ball walk
Uniform ergodicity
Ball walk with
Metropolis filter

Conclusions

References

						
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