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					Education Technology Trends We Cannot
Avoid
                     “Could be fifty education trends
                     about to knock us over the head”

                     NAWEB
                     OCTOBER 2002
                     Charles Hamilton
                     Manager e-learning Strategy
                     IBM Canada Innovation Centre::VANCOUVER




                                                  Solutions for e-learning
Centre Profile
                        Revenue Sources




Announced in April 1998
Industry aligned
Inbound e-business “software factory”
225 staff at February 2002
29 patent registrations
Millionth hour of services delivered Jan 2002
Worked with more than 300 Customers




                                                Solutions for e-learning
                                        Business Partners


                                         Micro Electronics


                                                Hardware
                                                             Embassy for IBM




                                                 Research


                                           Global Services



                             Centre
                           Innovation            Software


                                                     .com


                                         Global Financing


                                           Legal Services
Solutions for e-learning
WARNING!
 Learning
Technology
 Zealot On
   Site!!!
             Solutions for e-learning
TWO Things !

          Solutions for e-learning
Top Trends for 2002-2004
1. Increased Demand battles Increased Access
2. One Learner- Multiple delivery channels “YOU”
3. Security, Authenticity and Value “YOUR Learning Resume”
4. Educational Technology Standards
5. M-Learning - The Wireless College
6. Education Exodus - What happens when 75% of educators leave?
7. The Semantic Web- Next Generation Web
8. Edge Distribution- NAPSTER meets education
9. Rich Media Collaboration
10. Learning Object Repositories - (Content by the bite or byte)
11. Autonomic Computing –
12. Educator Roles - From Centre to Side
13. Crossing lines of Business - Herding Cats
14. Evolutionary path clearly visible
                                                               Solutions for e-learning
                                                                                             1
Demand and Globalization - Sheer Growth!




    Just like manufacturing drove the
     world into the 20th century,
     education will be the largest
     industry in the world by 2010,”                                                  Rory
      McGreal, executive director of Fredericton based TeleEducation New Brunswick.




                                                                                             Solutions for e-learning
Demand - How Big?

   US Learning & Training Industry

                                      1
       Edunomics and Eduventures US




                                      Solutions for e-learning
Demand and Globalization- Ongoing Demand




 “By 2006 50% of all North American workers may
  be employed in IT positions or within industries that
  intensively utilize information technology, products
  and services.”
                                                                            1
   US Department of Commerce, The Emerging Digital Economy II, June 1999.

 The internet reached as many North Americans in
  its first six years as the telephone did in four
  decades.
   Wurman, R.S.-Understanding USA et al.




                                                                            Solutions for e-learning
Half-life of Skills

    Building skills to keep pace     1
     1975 -Your base skills survive 25
      years
     1990 - Survive 7 years
     1997 - Survive 4 years
     2000 - Survive 1.5 years


                                    Solutions for e-learning
Demand and Globalization - New Spaces

    15% of all post secondary students or 2.2 million people




                                                                   1
     will be enrolled in online courses by 2002 in the U.S. alone,
     compared with 5% in 1998.
    In the U.S., for-profit providers are the fastest growing
     segment of the higher-education industry and could be
     earning US$3 billion a year in revenue by 2003.
    In the last thirteen years the number of companies that
     have opened corporate universities grew from 400 to
     1,800. Today 40% of Fortune 500 companies have
     established corporate universities. At the current rate the
     number of corporate universities will exceed the number of
     traditional universities by the year 2010.




                                                                 Solutions for e-learning
One Learner- Multiple delivery channels



                                                       2
Personalized Everywhere, Any Time, Any Place, Any Pace,

Attain versus Retain
  Prepare Me
  Tell Me
  Show Me
  Let Me (use it again and again)
  Help Me

 Time is the New Distance!

                                                      Solutions for e-learning
It’s about the Blend – Find your Sweet Spot



                                                            2

              IBM Mindspan Solutions Achieves Worldwide
               Leadership in the e-Learning Market
              http://www.Lotus.com/lotus/products.nsf/fa_prohomepage
                                                           Solutions for e-learning
Security, Authenticity and Value “You”



                                                                3
      My On-line learning RESUME follows me?
      Learners search for authenticity and help to sort
       through the offerings
      Cross certification (Western Governors University,
       Canadian University Alliance

  You are almost everything and your
   resume might be everything else.
   Where are we logging what you
   know?



                                          www.elearning.hbsp.org/news/jun4.html
     www.merlot.org
                                                                    Solutions for e-learning
  The Value of Tacit Knowledge- KM?
….But only 20% of
                                                      As consolidation
learning in                                           may make for commodity
companies is                        Knowledge
                                                      and learning objects the
                                                      value will migrate towards
formal?                             Economy =
                                                      informal and Knowledge
                                  Tools + Agents
                                                      Economy.
                                   + Objects +
                                      People                        And then lead in
                                                                       emerging
243 companies                   Software,
                                 Services,                               areas
were largely in
this formal area              Infrastructure
                                                     Informal
                                                    Learning =
                    Formal




                                                                           3
                                                      People
                 Learning =                        Collaborating,
               Digital Learning                      Expertise
                   Objects                          Automation

                                        If 80% of learning in companies
                                        is informal?            Solutions for e-learning
Find a Standard - “Standards what standard?”



                                                                   4
    Dublin Core
         Defines a minimal set of meta-data

    IEEE LOM (Learning Object Model) Extends
       Dublin Core for Learning

    IMS Global Learning          Implementation of IEEE
       LOM
         http://www.imsproject.org/metadata/mdbindv1p1.h
          tml
    SCORM, Sharable Courseware Object Reference
     Model
            www.adlnet.org/Scorm/downloads.cfm
    XRML (rights management)
     http://www.contentguard.com/XrML.htm
                                                            Solutions for e-learning
The Lure of Standards - ‘Holy Grail’ of Learning


                      Content
                         Variety
                          Visual
                         Tailored
                                                                   4
        People                            Education
        Personalization
                      XML Filters, Tagging
        Learning Styles                   Standard
          Demand                        State, Provincial




                      Testing
                      Personalization
                      Learning Styles
                         Demand


                                                            Solutions for e-learning
M-Learning – Pick a device any device!



                                                 5
    Pick anything and you might be right!




                  •http://www.palm.com/

                                          Solutions for e-learning
M-Learning - The Wireless College


                                                                        5
 Wireless laptop interactive classroom through application of 802.11b

 Wireless Growth
  300 million wireless handsets worldwide; expected to reach 1 billion by 2005.
    More mobile phones were shipped in 1999 than the total number of cars and
    personal computers together. Wireless handsets will outnumber televisions
    and PCs combined by 2005.
  By 2004, at least 40 percent of business- to- consumer e- commerce
    transactions outside North America will be initiated from wireless devices.
    (Gartner; Dataquest)


                                                                      Solutions for e-learning
M-Learning
             • http://www.nokia.com/main.html
             Nokia reveals its latest range of digital cable products. Tailor-
             made for different European markets, all models are ECCA
             (European Cable Communications Association) Eurobox
             compliant and feature a Telco modem for return path
             communication.
                                                                                 5
                        • http://www.webtv.com/index.html




                                                                             Solutions for e-learning
Education Exodus
     • Educators are leaving the profession,
       through retirement, and through
       career choice… What is going to
       happen next ?
                                                                                                                                        6

2001 Pan-Canadian Education Research Agenda Symposium Laval University (http://www.cmec.ca/stats/pcera/symposium2001/gervais-thony.t.en.pdf)



                                                                                                                                 Solutions for e-learning
Elearning Timeline

                                                          6
                     • Standards Organizations Emerge and Disperse
                          • Web Services Models Come to Education
The Semantic Web- Next Generation
Web

               http://www.w3.org/2001/sw/
                                                   7

                                            Solutions for e-learning
Edge Distribution-
  •   Application Offload
  •
  •
  •
  •
      Capacity Planning, Security

      Napster meets education (Peer to Peer Learning)
      Video Streaming
                                                                            8
      Grid computing (http://w3.grid.ibm.com/ http://bluegrid.webahead.ibm.com/)




  http://www-3.ibm.com/software/webservers/edgeserver/

                                                                     Solutions for e-learning
Rich Media- Endless Combinations



                                          9

                                   Solutions for e-learning
Rich Media- Hyper Collaboration
  http://www.eyeball.com/
                                                                          9
    http://netconference.about.com/internet/netconference/cs/webcollaborati
    on/




                                                                   Solutions for e-learning
Rich Media -Bandwidth
  New Internet versus Old Internet - The Emergence
  of Broadband
       1200

       1000
                 •
                 •
                     CANARIE, CANET 3, INTERNET 2, BCNET
                     AT&T announces broadband access for any
                     ISP
                                                 Bandwidth Doubling
                                                                      9
                 •   Local wireless
                 •   Private networks            every 6 months
        800
                 •   Satellite
        600      •   Wireless
                       CPU Power Doubling
        400            every 18 months

        200

          0
          1995                 2000               2005                     2010



                                                               Solutions for e-learning
Rich Media – Aggregation Directions


                                                                    9
                Interactive Web Casting and
                Streamed Media Solutions
                Example with our Investor Relations Site or the
                Americas Leadership Symposium




                 Stored Rich Media Learning Resources
                 for Reuse and Distribution across an
                 Educational Community
                 Examples with POOL project, CANARIE, TeleLearning NCE,
                 VCCS and Alberta Learning




                        Aggregated Educational Community
                        Portal with Learning Resources and
                        Industry Support Tools
                        Example with POOL project, CANARIE, TeleLearning
                        NCE, VCCS, BBC, Ontario, Texas State and Alberta
                        Learning
Content and Service Aggregation – As a Portal




                                 •
                                            10
                                      Learning Object Model
                                      and its application within
                                      the Learning context is
                                      much like the model
                                      described by David A.
                                      Wiley “which defines a
                                      learning object as any
                                      digital resource that can
                                      be reused in the support
                                      of learning.”
                                     • See IDC's “The Learning
                                       Content Management
                                       System; A New eLearning
                                       Market Segment
                                       Emerges”
                                       http://www.kmgpinc.com/

                                                      Solutions for e-learning
Autonomic Computing –
 As we move from Technology Age, through



                                                        11
 Information Age and head on into the
 Knowledge Age, we have introduced an
 unprecedented level of system complexity
 and this complexity must be addressed if
 we are going to move forward.




  http://www.research.ibm.com/autonomic/overview/problem.html



                                                            Solutions for e-learning
Where is the educator role headed?

                                     12

 Framework for e-Learning Delivery
                                     Solutions for e-learning
Crossing Lines of business
   … Adoption of eLearning is following the same time
   line developed to show eBusiness adoption. We
   have customers at all ends of the spectrum
                                                          13
                                        Transform the way you
                                        conduct business

                       Integrate the Web with       V
                       business systems             A
  Get your information on
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                     Y L
                     DA




                                                                Solutions for e-learning
We are in the mist of a
revolution led by
educational technology and
                               14
learner demand.
We must change our
education delivery mindset
or risk being lost the wake!


                               Solutions for e-learning
  Some IBM Connections
Private Sector                               Public Sector Education Industry
Training Industry                      • IBM Research In Education -                      • Lotus Learning
                                         IBM Institute for Advanced                           http://www.lotus.com/home.nsf/welcome/educati
                                                                                              on
                                         Learning IBM Zurich
 • Training Services                   • http://w3.zurich.ibm.com/ial/                    • The IBM Web Lecture Service
 • Mindspan Solutions                  • IBM software University Portal
                                                                                              http://lt.lahulpe.ibm.com/info/wls.html
   evolution                            http://www-                                       • The IBM Video Jukebox
 • Knowledge Factory                    4.ibm.com/software/info/university/resources/         http://w3.ibm.com/jukebox/
   evolution                           • IBM Faculty Portal http://www-
 • Partnership and Brand                4.ibm.com/software/info/university/
                                                                                          • The Advanced Business Centre
   maintenance                                                                              Palisades
                                       • IBM Student Portal http://www-
 • elearning consulting                 4.ibm.com/software/info/students/                     http://www-1.ibm.com/ibm/palisades/abi/
   Services (selected)
                                       • K-12 Schools Home Page                           • Life Sciences
IBM Learning Services                   www.ibm.com/solutions/education/schools           •   http://www-3.ibm.com/solutions/lifesciences/
http://w3.ibm.com/services/learning/
lsintra.nsf                            • Higher Education Home Page                       • E-meetings Online
                                        www.ibm.com/solutions/education/highereducation
                                                                                          •   http://w3.ibm.com/team/e-meetings/
                                       • IBM Gives Community
                                         Relations http://www.ibm.com/ibm/ibmgives/ • Education Solutions
                                                                                      Competency Centre
                                       • IBM Global Services Institute                http://w3.pdc.ibm.com/
                                        http://w3.ibm.com/services/institute/index.html                  Vancouver
                                       • Institute For Electronic
                                         Government http://www.ieg.ibm.com/




                                                                                                                        Solutions for e-learning
Connections

                                                   Les Issaacson
     Chuck Hamilton

  chamilto@ca.ibm.com                LesIsaacson/CanWest/IBM@IBMCA



                  IBM Pacific Development Centre
                        www.can.ibm.com/pdc
                      w3.pdc.ibm.com/index.html
                                    Applied Research in Collaborative
                                    Setting. Members include:
                                    Electronic Arts, IBM, Nortel
                                    Networks, TELUS, Sierra Wireless,
                                    Nokia and Sony
                                    www.Newmic.com




                                                                   Solutions for e-learning

				
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