presentation_5 by shimeiyan

VIEWS: 1 PAGES: 20

									                                      TECHNOLOGY
                                     FORESIGHT
                                     PROGRAMME




 TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT
 PROGRAMME IN HUNGARY
Ferenc KOVÁTS
Chairman of the Steering Committee



Sofia, 3 October 2002
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR EU ENLARGEMENT
International Conference
Organised in frame of the ForeTech Programme
EU-15
PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES
              ENLARGEMENT
• With Enlargement Europe will be by far the
  largest common market in the world, in
  purchasing power terms, with a population of
  over 550 million1.




  1 IPTS Futures Reports
                   however,
• EU cohesion and the competiveness of our
  continent depends upon the stability of the new
  members, therefore Eastern Europe must
  become



  prosperous, stabile and safe
   TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT
      PROGRAMME (TFP)
WHAT IS TFP?


A programme that aims to create sustainable
competitive advantage and enhance the
quality of life by bringing together business,
the science base and Government to identify
and respond to emerging opportunities in
markets and technologies.
  HUNGARIAN FORESIGHT
    PROGRAMME (TEP)
• Main objective: to prepare recommendations for
  improving long term

• INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS
• of the country



• and the
• QUALITY OF LIFE of the people
    HUNGARIAN FORESIGHT
     PROGRAMME (TEP) (cont.)
• Hungary launched her first foresight programme in 1997.
• The main goals: to find the ways and means to improve quality of
  life and the long-term international competitiveness of the country.
• Organisation: the programme has been realised in seven panels
  supervised by a steering committee, managed by the TEP Office,
  sponsored by the Ministry of Education.
• Methods: panel meetings, background studies, scenarios, Delphi-
  questionnaires, workshops, and seminars.
• The final reports have been published and are available on the
  Internet
HUNGARIAN FORESIGHT PANELS

 Human resources (education, employment)
 Health (life sciences, pharmaceuticals,
  medical instruments, health care)
 IT, telecommunications, media
 Natural and built environment
 Manufacturing and business processes (new
  materials, supplier networks, globalisation
  ...)
 Agribusiness and food
 Transport
                METHODS
                                 Panels
  Delphi-survey
Holistic:        UK                 Holistic:
USA              Spain               Ireland
Japan            Macro scenarios,    Sweden
South Korea      too:
France            South Africa
Germany           Hungary           Sectoral:
    Sectoral:                        The Netherlands
     Austria                         Finland
                                     macro
global and regional                scenarios
     scenarios




               panels’ scenarios
     STRUCTURE OF MACRO
          SCENARIOS
Main dimensions:
           integration
           knowledge-intensity
           active strategy vs. drifting
Other factors:
           human
           societal
           environmental
           economic
                            THREE MACRO SCENARIOS


global structural changes
                            fundamental
                                                                     III




                                                     II                  I
                            no




                                          drifting (no strategy)   active
                                                    Hungary’s strategy
      RECOMMENDATIONS
      of the Environment Panel
• Regional environmental center
• Indicators for environmental health
  conditions
• Stimulation of clean/er?/ technologies
• Ecologically sensitive tax system
• Env. education and training
• Urban (settlement) development
• Concerted measures in catastrophes
• Regulatory framework for non „renewables”
• Environmental indicators in NIS
• R&D
                THE JANUS FACE OF
                 GLOBALISATION
                               THREATS TO HUMAN
      BENEFITS
                                  SECURITY
•   INCREASED TRADE
                           •   FINANCIAL VOLATILITY
•   NEW, GLOBAL                ECONOMIC INSECURITY
•   TECHNOLOGIES
•   FOREIGN                •   JOB & INCOME SECURITY
•   INVESTMENTS
                           •   HEALTH
•   EXPANDING
•   MEDIA and              •   POLITICAL, PERSONAL,
                               HEALTH INSECURITY
•   Internet CONNECTIONS
•   ECONOMIC GROWTH        •   ENVIRONMENTAL INSECURITY
             HOW TO HANDLE
             GLOBALISATION?
• Find the ways of utilising its advantages,
  reducing the damages.
• Globalisation offers great opportunities for
  human advance - but only with
• stronger governance
• GOVERNANCE IS NOT MERE GOVERNMENT
  is the framework of rules, insitutions, established practices
  that sets limits for the behaviour
GENERIC PRIORITIES
                    Compe-
(tentative)        titiveness
                            +
                      Quality of life

                  Healthy +                  Strong
                  educated                   economy
                   society




                                                        management of
                     Communications



                                       system of R&D
                                       Organisational

                                                         Funding and
                      infrastructure




                                                          innovation
                 Regulation & Policy
                INTERNATIONAL
                ORGANISATIONS
European Commission
DIRECTORATE K:
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC RESEARCH


FORESIGHT UNIT K1:
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT AND LINKS WITH IPTS
‘Eforesee’ (Estonia, Cyprus, Malta) FORETECH (Bulgaria, Rumania),


IPTS (Institute for Prospective Technological Sudies):
FUTURES PROJECT, ENLARGEMENT PROJECT,
ERA (European Research Area) project
             INTERNATIONAL
            ORGANISATIONS (cont.)
United Nations
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
“HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT series from 1990
stopping the mismeasure of human progress


Institute for New Technologies of the United Nations
University (UNU/INTECH)
research and policy-oriented analyses, capacity building in the arena of new
technologies;
economic and social impacts, especially in relation to the developing
countries.
                    UNIDO
   (United Nations Industrial Development Organisation)


  REGIONAL FORESIGHT INITIATIVES FOR
 BUILDING AWARENESS AND COMMITMENT


• Technology Foresight Summit 2003
    Budapest 27-29 March 2003
                   www.unido.org
• THANKS
• FOR YOUR ATTENTION !



• www.foresight.hu
• ferenc.kovats@om.hu

								
To top