Strategy and Risk Management
TNO | Knowledge for business
Training courses on Decision and Risk Analysis
Over the last few years TNO has been providing various successful courses to industry and universities on decision and risk analysis (D&RA). In principle, courses are tailored to the wishes of the client and would include web-based pre-reading material, lectures, exercises, discussions, syndicate teamwork, business simulations, and computer training using TNO’s advanced E&P Decision Support System (DSS, see also www.nitg.tno.nl/dss).
25 students participating on each occasion. The pre-reading material was made available to the students via the internet and aimed to bring the students from all kinds of backgrounds on an equal footing In terms of matters pertaining to uncertainty in the E&P value loop. A shortened course for senior management lasting two and a half days is also available. Examples of other courses are available upon request. A much-appreciated "Integrated Asset Management Course" was given to Lukoil, with direct translation by a Russian interpreter. A targeted course on how to use DSS was given to Petrobras staff in Rio de Janeiro. TNO is also active in developing and implementing university curricula, both for BSc and MSc courses. A Petroleum Technology BSc course for the University of Paramaribo (Suriname) is one such example. The petroleum economics module uses the concepts of Decision & Risk Analysis and uncertainty quantification for decisionmaking. For Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, a post-graduate mid-career MSc course has been set up based on these
Forum for Forecasting and Uncertainty Evaluation
BenO uGE 010 05-2007
Prospective students cover the full range, from university students via experienced professionals to senior management. The sample programme (left) is the flagship course given to the Norwegian forum for Forecasting and Uncertainty evaluation (FUN, in which most E&P oil companies active on the Norwegian Continental Shelf and the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate participate; see www.fun-oil.org). The course consisted of a week’s training at a remote location in the Norwegian countryside, with
Strategy and Risk Management
Training courses on Decision and Risk Analysis
Geo energy and Geo information
principles. In Decision & Risk Analysis an impressive amount of conceptual and practical developments has taken place recently. Much more is to come in order to enable the true integration of technical and business issues in the decision-making process. With TNO you can be guaranteed that the latest concepts, tools and business applications will be discussed. How to implement such processes in the corporate culture is a separate issue where TNO can provide coaching. TNO is ready to discuss your course requirements with you.
TNO Built Environment and Geosciences Geological Survey of the Netherlands is the central geoscience centre in the Netherlands for information and research to promote the sustainable management and use of the subsurface and its natural resources. TNO Built Environment and Geosciences
Anton de Kom University, Paramaribo (Suriname), Petroleum Economics class (September 2002).
Ranking improves after introducing D&RA
Year (5 year period ending) 1990 0 2 4 Ranking 6 8 10 12 14 16 Introduction of D&RA Comp. C Comp. A 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Geological Survey of the Netherlands Princetonlaan 6 PO Box 80015 3508 TA Utrecht The Netherlands T +31 30 256 46 00 F +31 30 256 46 05 E info-BenO@tno.nl tno.nl
Combining discrete and continuous uncertainties in a scenario/decision tree, and propagating the full statistical information to the applicable decision level. KPI=Key Performance Indicator, pdf = probability density function, NPV=Net Present Value, P/I=Profit to Investment ratio, IRR=Internal Rate of Return.
Introduction of fully probabilistic D&RA process could help improve relative business performance of E&P companies.
How probabilistic forecasts are computed: processing of Monte Carlo realisations of production forecasts.
6 5 4 AP Oil Export Forecast The 50:50 forecast is calculated from the histograms of production at each time-step. The 50:50 forecast is not a deterministic case! 6 5 4 AP Oil Export Forecast
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4 AP Oil Export Forecast The mean forecast is calculated from the histograms of production at each time-step. The mean forecast is NOT a deterministic case 6 5 4
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AP Oil Export Forecast
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6 5 4 AP Oil Export Forecast 12
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AP Oil Export Forecast
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10:90 50:50 90:10
10 8 6 4 2 0
use stratified sampling when summing two sets of curves!
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