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					                                              Cheshire East
                                      New population forecasts
Key Points
    •	 The first two decades of Cheshire East will be marked by a steady growth of
       population with an increasing proportion of older (and more dependant) people
    •	 Total population will rise from about 360 thousand in 2006 to nearly 380 thousand
       by 2026
    •	 This is an increase of 20 thousand or so, averaging one thousand growth each year
    •	 There will be around 5% fewer children living in Cheshire East by 2026 than there
       were in 2006
    •	 The number of people aged 65 to 84 will increase by about one half (from 56

       thousand to 81 thousand)

    •	 The number of people aged 85 or older will double between 2006 and 2026 (from 8
       thousand to 16 thousand)
    •	 Forecast population at start of the new authority in 2009:
                                  Age        0-15          16-64          65+     All ages
                                 2009      66,000        229,000       68,000     363,000

Background
In December 2007 the government announced its final decision on the creation of
Cheshire East Council. In the few months prior to the final announcement some of key
data sets were published relating to demographic changes. These included a completely
revised set of mid-year estimates for 2006 back to 2002. The Research and Intelligence
unit at Cheshire County Council has produced new population forecasts for Cheshire East
which incorporate the latest local information available. We are investigating the feasibility
of producing forecasts for small areas within Cheshire East, based on the electoral
divisions to be used for the election of the shadow authority in May 2008.

This note provides an outline of the size of population in various age groups for the short,
medium and long terms. It does not provide a detailed discussion of the impact the
changes will have for unitary services now and in the future. This is for appropriate officers
and members in the new authority to decide.

The populations and forecasts all refer to mid-year (June 30) for the specified year and
relate to people living permanently in Cheshire East., They do not include short-term
migrants or people who only work or attend school in the area but do not live there.

Being based on the completely revised mid-year estimate for 2006 these forecasts cannot
be compared with previous forecasts.

The forecasts have often been shown rounded to the nearest 100 people. This is not
intended to imply that they are accurate to this degree. All forecasts become increasingly
imprecise the further in the future you look.

Further information
Forecasts have been produced for each 5 year age group for each mid-year from 2006 to
2026. This includes information on numbers of males and females. There are also some
other age groups available for children and young people, and pensionable age. This
report summarises the findings. The more detailed forecast figures can be found on the
partnership information resource LiLAC (http://lilac.cheshire.gov.uk)
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                                                            Cheshire East




Total population

The number of people living in Cheshire East has, in general, increased steadily over the
last 25 years. Average annual growth has been about 1,200 a year giving a population, in
2006, of 358,900.

The mid-year population (June 2009) at the start of the new authority will be about
363,000. Table 1 shows that we expect this to rise to about 380,000 by 2026. Which is
slightly slower growth than seen in the past. Alternative forecasts produced by R&I indicate
it could rise to as high as 393,000 or low as 366,000 by 2026. Chart 1 shows these
possibilities.

Table 1: Total population (in thousands)

                 Year                    2006       2009   2011       2016     2021   2026
                 Total                   358.9     362.7   364.8      369.5   373.9   379.3


Chart 1:


                                      Total population - past, present and future (with possible
                                                            alternatives)

                                400
    Population (in thousands)




                                350
                                                                                                        Total
                                                                                                        High
                                                                                                        Low
                                300



                                250
                                  1981           1991       2001          2011        2021
                                                               Year




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                                                           Cheshire East



Children

Long term trends in Table 2 show that there will be about 5% fewer children living in
Cheshire East in 2026 than there were in 2006.

Despite this general downward trend the number of younger residents in each age group
fluctuates slightly throughout the forecasts showing small periodic changes due to historic
patterns of births.

Chart 2 illustrates the changes in actual numbers of children from 1991 to 2006 and
forecasts from 2007 to 2026.

Table 2: Number of residents, aged 0 to 4, 5 to 10 and 11 to 15 (in thousands)

        Year                           2006     2009      2011      2016         2021       2026

         0-4
                           19.0    19.9       19.9      18.9         18.5       18.4

        5-10
                           25.1    24.2       24.2      25.5         24.4       23.8

       11-15
                           23.0    22.3       21.8      20.7         22.0       21.1

        0-15
                           67.1    66.4       66.0      65.0         64.8       63.4

Chart 2:


                                           Children: past, current and future population

                               30

                               25
    Residents (in thousands)




                               20
                                                                                                       0-4
                               15                                                                      5-10
                                                                                                       11-15
                               10

                                5

                                0
                                1991   1996    2001     2006      2011      2016         2021   2026
                                                   Year (forecasts after 2006)




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                                                          Cheshire East



Working age residents and labour supply

Table 3 shows the number of residents aged 16 to 64 generally falling slightly throughout
the forecast period, being about 4% smaller in 2026 than 2006. Generally the number of
residents aged 16 to 44 decreases throughout the forecasts while the number of residents
aged 45 to 64 increases.

Table 3: Resident population of working age (in thousands)

        Year                            2006      2009   2011       2016     2021   2026

       16-44
                           129.8    126.5   123.7      117.0   114.2   117.6

       45-64
                            98.2    102.1   104.1      105.8   106.0   100.7

       16-64
                           228.0    228.6   227.8      222.8   220.2   218.4

Chart 3:


                                                Resident population of working age

                               140

                               120
    Residents (in thousands)




                               100

                                80                                                                     16-44
                                60                                                                     45-64

                                40

                                20

                                 0
                                 2006           2011        2016            2021        2026
                                                             Year




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                                                             Cheshire East

Similar changes are seen in the labour supply with an increasing proportion of older
workers and a slight, long-term, decline in the overall supply of resident labour. Shown in
Table 4 and Chart 4.

Table 4: Resident labour supply (in thousands)

        Year                              2006     2009     2011      2016          2021    2026

       16-44
                             105.3   102.3      99.9      94.2          91.9    94.7

       45-64
                              70.1    73.3      75.7      80.0          80.4    74.5

       16-64
                             175.4   175.7     175.6     174.2        172.3    169.2

Chart 4:


                                                          Resident labour supply

                                    180

                                    160
    Labour supply (in thousands)





                                    140

                                    120

                                    100                                                                     45-64
                                    80                                                                      16-44

                                    60

                                    40

                                    20

                                     0
                                          2006    2009        2011          2016        2021         2026
                                                                     Year




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                                                           Cheshire East



Older people

This is the only age group to show significant changes in the size and proportion of the

population. The number of people aged 65 to 84 will increase by about 50% from 56

thousand, in 2006, to 81 thousand twenty years later.


The number of very elderly people (aged 85 and older) will double from about 8 thousand
in 2006 to 16 thousand in 2026.

Table 5 and Chart 5 illustrate these changes.

Table 5: Number of older people (in thousands)

        Year                           2006      2009      2011      2016    2021    2026

       65-84
                           55.5     58.7       61.6      70.7    75.7    81.4

         85+
                            8.2      9.0        9.4      11.0    13.1    16.1

         65+
                           63.7     67.7       71.0      81.6    88.8    97.5

Chart 5:


                                                        Number of older people

                               90
                               80
    Residents (in thousands)




                               70
                               60
                               50                                                                      65-84
                               40                                                                      85+
                               30
                               20
                               10
                                0
                                2006           2011           2016           2021        2026
                                                              Year




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                                                             Cheshire East



Overall

Cheshire East will show moderate growth in line with historical trends. However, the
population continues to age with older people making up an increasing proportion of the
population. The growth in older people will increase the demands for both formal and
informal support. While small decreases in the working age population mean there are
fewer people to provide and pay for this additional support. Labour supply also decreases
slightly, though the workforce will have a greater proportion of older workers. The number
of children falls slightly. Table 6 and Chart 6 summarises the overall changes forecast for
Cheshire East.

Table 6: Population summary (in thousands)

        Year                          2006        2011     2016     2021    2026
        0-15                           67.1        66.0     65.0     64.8    63.4
       16-44                         129.8       123.7     117.0   114.2    117.6
       45-64                           98.2      104.1     105.8   106.0    100.7
         65+                          63.7         71.0     81.6     88.8    97.5
        Total                        358.9       364.8     369.5   373.9    379.3

Chart 6:


                                              Population trends for various age groups

                               140

                               120
   Population (in thousands)




                               100                                                                   2006
                                80                                                                   2011
                                                                                                     2016
                                60                                                                   2021
                                40                                                                   2026

                                20

                                 0
                                       0-15               16-44        45-64         65+
                                                              Age groups




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                                                      Cheshire East
Chart 7 illustrates the ageing population. In 2006 there were about 20% more people aged
0 to 44 than aged 45 or older. By 2016 there will be roughly equal numbers. In 2026 there
will be 10% more older people than younger.

Chart 7:


                                                     Ageing population


                                 200
                                 180
     Population (in thousands)




                                 160
                                 140
                                 120
                                                                                                         0-44
                                 100
                                                                                                         45+
                                  80
                                  60
                                  40
                                  20
                                   0
                                       2006   2011         2016           2021         2026
                                                            Year

.





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                                              Cheshire East



How we calculated the forecasts

These forecasts attempt to produce a realistic impression of population in Cheshire East
over the next 20 years. They are moderate forecasts, being based on the idea of
restrained growth encapsulated in the Regional Spatial Strategy. The government has
already indicated that some of the controls may be lessened and R&I will produce revised
forecasts as new information (on births, deaths and migration as well as housing) comes
to light. The alternative low and high scenarios discussed at the beginning illustrate some
of the possible, though less likely, levels of population, though these do not differ
substantially from the principal forecast.

These forecasts were calculated from the most up to date, local information available. In
this respect they are more locally relevant than projections produced centrally by the Office
for National Statistics. The starting population was the 2006 mid-year estimate. These
people were aged on each year and births added based on the latest available fertility
rates, thus taking into account the recent, previously unforeseen, increases in fertility.
Deaths were calculated from the latest mortality rates and trends and the number of
resident migrants was based on the latest available information related to expected levels
of housing development.

A more detailed methodology is available on request from
Stuart.Holroyd@cheshire.gov.uk.

You can also obtain more detailed figures from LiLAC (www.LiLAC.cheshire.gov.uk) or by
contacting Stuart Holroyd.




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