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					Workshop on Forestry & Climate Change:

Sequestration Options in the Context of
          U.S. Climate Policy
                     Ken Andrasko
                Office of Atmospheric Programs
 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA
                              at
 Workshop on Forestry & Climate Change: Assessing Mitigation
  Potential--Lessons Learned, New Delhi, India, Sept. 23-24,
                             2002
  Bush Administration’s New Approach to
            Climate Change:
        Emissions Intensity Target

• President’s 6/14/02 plan commits U.S. to slow, stop,
  and then, as science justifies, reverse GHG emissions
  growth.
• Commits U.S. to cut GHG emissions per Gross
  Domestic Product (million $/year), a unit of economic
  activity: by 18%, by 2012.
• President’s goal would lower emissions 4.5% below
  business as usual projections.
• Review progress in 2012; take additional action if
  necessary.
    President Announced Global Climate
             Change Initiatives
• Business engagement: EPA Climate Leaders: ~ 20
  companies commit to corporate inventories &
  emission reduction targets.
• Revise U.S. GHG registry (1605b) to enhance
  accuracy, verifiability, & provide transferable credits
• $700 million increase in FY03 budget for climate
  change science and technology-- to $4.5 billion total.
• $4.6 billion proposed tax credits for renewable
  energy sources (5 yrs).
• Enhanced support for climate observation and
  mitigation in developing world.
• Incentives for sequestration.
   Enhanced Support in Developing
Countries & for International Cooperation


• $155 million for US AID climate programs
• ~$68 million for Global Environment Facility
  climate change work
• $50 million for tropical forest conservation
  (inc. $40 million for debt-for-nature swaps)
• $25 million for climate observation systems in
  developing countries
  Developing Countries & International
        Cooperation: Bilaterals

• Bilateral discussions underway, emphasizing
  cooperation on science & technology, with:

   –   India, China, Korea
   –   Brazil, Mexico
   –   CONCAUSA (7 Central American countries)
   –   South Africa
   –   Japan, Australia, Canada, Italy, New Zealand
   –   EU
   –   Russian Federation, Ukraine
 U.S. EPA Forest and Agriculture Climate
            Change Activities
• EPA compiles official U.S. GHG inventory for all
  sectors: agriculture and forest emissions (w/USDA)
• Mitigation analysis of agriculture and forests:
      • modeling project-level, U.S., and international options,
      • economics, and policy options.
• Improve sinks in major integrated assessment
  models for policy analysis
• EPA voluntary programs:
   – methane reduction (livestock)
   – Climate Leaders: private sector companies, launched in 2002
 Land Use is Major Source of Developing
 Country Emissions & Mitigation Potential
• Top 10 emitters          • Top 10 emitters with
  without LULUCF             LULUCF (MMTC/y)
  –   China          670     –   China       650
  –   India          240     –   Brazil      400
  –   S. Korea       110     –   India       240
  –   Brazil         100     –   Indonesia   210
  –   Mexico         100     –   Sudan       160
  –   S. Africa      100     –   Mexico      150
  –   Iran           80      –   S. Africa   100
  –   Saudi Arabia   70      –   Congo       80
  –   Indonesia      60      –   Iran        80
  –   Nigeria        20      –   Nigeria     70
                            Assessing Feasibility of Sinks Options:
                         Example:Conceptual impact of barriers on costs and
                                   carbon mitigation potential
Cost of carbon ($/t C)



                                                                                F7 Estimate –
                                                             Economic
                         Market or Achievable                                  Socioeconomic
                                                             Potential
                              Potential                                           Potential

                                                         ??
                                                                                 ??
                               Market Failures: Examples
                               Ill-defined property rights      Barriers: Examples
                               Lack of information              Carbon leakage
                               Absence of markets               Class structure
                               Poor capital markets             Gender Issues
                                                                Attitudes and habits



                               Carbon sequestered or emissions avoided (t C)
                                                                      Source: Sathaye et al, 2001
                 F7 and FORCLIMIT
      Participating Research Groups (F7 since 1990)
• ASIA:
   CHINA -- Xu, Deying (IPCC Lead Author, LULUCF Report),
    Forest Ecology and Environment Institute, Beijing
   INDIA -- Dr. N.H. Ravindranath (IPCC Coordinator, LULUCF
    Report, CLA for Tech Transfer, and LA for WGIII Report,
    Consultant to UNFCCC), Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore
   INDONESIA -- Prof. Rizaldi Boer (UNFCCC Consultant),
    Bogor Agriculture University, Bogor (co-funding with EAP)
   MALAYSIA -- Dr. Roslan Ismail (ITTO Board, IPCC LA),
    SustechAsia.com Sdn Bhd., and Prof. Azman Abidin, UPM,
    Malaysia (via EAP funding)
   PHILIPPINES -- Prof. Rodel Lasco (IPCC Lead Author,
    LULUCF Report), University of the Philippines, Los Banos (via
    EAP funding)
• AFRICA:
  Technical Cooperation with Experts and
    Via Bilateral Relationships is Critical
• FORCLIMIT: Forestry and Climate Change Mitigation
  Network, EPA & LBNL (with State Dept. support) with
  in-country institutes & government
• 2000-02: Indonesia, Philippines, and Malaysia:
   – Tech transfer & training in LBNL sinks models: COMAP.
   – Mitigation cost curves, by in-country experts
   – 2-3 stakeholder workshops in each country: Dialog on
     policy & project issues w/ government, private industry,
     NGOs, academics. Foreign experts brought in.
   – Publication of results.
• 2002-03: Proposal: work with India?, and Mexico?
   – Same activities as above, or as agreed with country.
       FORCLIMIT Network: 2
• FORCLIMIT partners: Indonesia: IBP Bogor (Bogor
  Agric. Univ,). Malaysia: Regional Centre for Forest
  Management. Philippines: Univ. of Philippines, Los
  Banos
• Activities 2000-02: Performed national and case study
  analyses of forest mitigation. Held 3 workshops each
  country. Publications in major journals.
• Dialog with private sector, NGOs, academics led to new
  cooperation, informed government policy positions.
  FORCLIMIT: Lessons Learned
• Exchange methods, tools: US, plus experts from peer
  countries: in region; India, Brazil, etc.
• Analysis by in-country institutions, to build capacity
• Cooperation w/ government, but technical process: freer
  participation by private, NGOs. 2-year process.
• Include all stakeholders: regional, private, NGO, academic
• Share how US, other countries addressing same issues
• Explain IPCC, UNFCCC technical issues, results.
• Assess projects as tangible examples to avoid endless
  debate, and force real study of technical issues.
                Workshop Goals

• Identify potential forestry mitigation options for India
• Discuss methods for sequestration accounting, and
  project technical issues
• Share analyses from other countries
• Identify research needs and discuss potential areas
  of research cooperation
• Listen to perspectives of stakeholders: priority areas
  for work, issues to address
• Identify next steps for cooperation and schedule
    Incentives for Carbon Sequestration
           in the President’s Plan
• Farm Bill of 2002 passed Congress, and includes:
      • Conservation Reserve Program set-aside acreage expands from
        34 to 40 million acres (16 million ha): cropland into grass or
        trees.
      • Enhanced Environmental Quality Incentives Program (e.g.,
        fertilizer and waste management plans).
      • Wetlands Reserve Program: doubled.
      • Potential pilot sequestration projects and methods
        development.
• President directed Departments of Energy,
  Commerce, Agriculture, and EPA, to propose
  improvements to current voluntary emissions
  reduction registry program (1605b).
                  Summary:
   Areas of Potential Cooperation to Realize
                Sinks Potential
• Perform pilot project analyses: issues.
• Stimulate development of standard methods & guidance
  for US and developing country offsets.
• Improve models to handle socioeconomic and technical
  issues.
• Dialog on potential activities & issues with stakeholders.
• Assess rural livelihood, biodiversity effects.
• Assist key countries in assessing international offsets
  opportunities, barriers, institutional arrangements.
     EPA-LBNL FORCLIMIT
    Network: Capacity Building
• FORCLIMIT = Forestry and Climate Change
  Mitigation Network: Indonesia, Malaysia,
  Philippines. Objectives:
  – Assist LUCF inventory improvement: data, methods
  – Assess options for forest maintenance, expansion, &
    improved management, & GHG benefits.
  – Dialog among government, private, NGO, experts.
  – Assess 1-3 case studies: technical, financial, rural
    livelihood, sustainable development aspects.
The FORCLIMIT Network Experience:
   Potential Cooperation in India?
• Identify priority areas for research cooperation
• Establish working groups or relationships
• Schedule set of activities over 1-2 years: say,
  workshops in May or June, and in December, 2003??
• Seek stakeholder input, especially from private sector
  in India and U.S.: identify their needs, questions,
  polaicy concerns, technical issues
• Select 1-2 case studies for intensive analysis of
  technical issues?
• Schedule for outreach and publishing results

				
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