Introduction to Amateur Investing
Ryan Prescott Adams
Department of Physics University of Cambridge http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/rpa23/
10 February 2006
Why Invest?
Buying a Home Children’s Education
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Copyright Adam Wierman
Retirement
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The Wonders of Compounding Interest
What Should I Invest In?
There are many options:
Savings/Chequing Accounts Money Market Accounts Stocks Bonds Futures Precious Metals Currencies Rare Goods
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Plus many others...
Consider Your Situation
Questions to Ask:
Liquidity
How soon do you need this money?
Consider Your Situation
Questions to Ask:
Liquidity
How soon do you need this money?
Risk
How badly do you need this money?
Consider Your Situation
Questions to Ask:
Liquidity
How soon do you need this money?
Risk
How badly do you need this money?
Quantity
How much do you have to invest?
Consider Your Situation
Questions to Ask:
Liquidity
How soon do you need this money?
Risk
How badly do you need this money?
Quantity
How much do you have to invest?
Effort
How much time do you have to deal with it?
Consider Your Situation
Questions to Ask:
Liquidity
How soon do you need this money?
Risk
How badly do you need this money?
Quantity
How much do you have to invest?
Effort
How much time do you have to deal with it?
Ethics
Is maximizing return your only concern?
Categorizing Investments
Savings and Chequing Accounts
Basic Interest-Bearing Account
Extremely liquid Governmentally insured
$100K in US £31K in Britain
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Low minimum investment Easy Low returns (1-2%)
5% in UK! Weird conditions
Money Market Deposit Accounts (MMDAs)
High-yield Savings with Minimums
Quite liquid
More transaction restrictions US government insured Higher minimum investment Not all banks offer them Not common in UK That’s okay because UK savings returns are higher Lowish returns (3-4%)
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Certificates of Deposit
High-yield Savings with Term Lengths
“Deposit Bonds” in the UK Specific Term Lengths
Three months to five years Penalty for early withdrawal US government insured (If bank-offered) Higher rates for larger deposits Can miss interest rate changes Lowish returns (3-4%)
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Money Market Fund
Collective Money Market Investment
Can be quite liquid
Cheque writing, etc. Low risk, but not FDIC insured Designed to be like a bank account Try to keep shares at $1 Investment in short-term debts Access to institutional-level money market returns Management overhead Returns paid through monthly dividend Some focus on market segments Municipal, corporate, offshore Better returns (3-5%)
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Treasury Securities
Lending Money to Dubya
Treasury Bills, Notes, and Bonds
lots of different term lengths treasurydirect.gov Extremely low-risk Easy to sell Nonliquid variant: Savings bonds not transferrable Return around 4% (depending on length)
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Inflation-Indexed Treasury Bonds
Protection Against Inflation
Coupon rate increases with inflation Must hold for at least 12 months Low risk treasurydirect.gov Taxes get you Can have nice returns: 5-6%
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Corporate Bonds
Lending Money to Companies
Varying risk levels
the company might go bankrupt Somewhat harder to buy and sell Potentially higher returns depends on the risk Currently 4-6% for A-rated and above, but historically have been much higher
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Stocks
Buying Bits of Companies
Relatively risky
varies a lot Lots of ways to buy and sell Transaction costs are significant Pricing is highly unpredictable Potentially the highest returns
Picking Stocks
Only One Tried and True Method
Picking Stocks, continued
Investing in Fundamentals
Choosing to invest in companies that you believe have long-term viability. You believe the company will grow and pay dividends.
Speculation
Choosing a company because you believe it’s stock price will go up and you can sell it in the short or medium term for a gain.
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Speculation
Leave it to the professionals (and gamblers)
You think you know something the market hasn’t already included in the price? Not likely. If you really do, then you might be insider trading. If I knew how to pick short-term stocks, I wouldn’t tell you my secrets anyway.
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Investor Tools
The Internet
Things to Notice
Market Capitalization Earnings Per Share Price to Earnings Ratio Dividend Yield
Investor Tools, continued
SEC Filings
The US Securities and Exchange Commission Annual Report to Shareholders 10-K Annual Report to the SEC Proposed Sales by Insiders
Laziness
Mutual Funds
Dedicated professionals Diverse portfolio Can still be niche-specific Management overhead You still have to pick a fund or manager
Index Funds
Track a particular index Diverse portfolio You still have to pick an index
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Brokerages
Getting in the Game
Full-Service Brokers
lots of advice, planning, taxes Morgan Stanley, Merrill-Lynch, UBS Discount Brokers no advice, just trades TD Waterhouse, Scottrade Online Brokers no advice, just trades Ameritrade, ETrade
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Advanced Speculation
Trading on margin
borrowing from the broker Short selling selling it before you own it Options purchasing the right to buy or sell at a price
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Advanced Speculation, continued
Common Personal Finance Pitfalls
Worthless Advice
Pay off consumer debt first!
Know your interest rates Buy stocks you know, but that aren’t tied to your industry Don’t lose both your job and your money Diversify Spread risk
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Questions?