VIEWS: 23 PAGES: 3 CATEGORY: Other POSTED ON: 3/6/2010 Public Domain
Template: Bayes Theorem Payoff Table Initial Expectations Table Possible States (Consequences) Possible States (Consequences) Decision Decision 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0% 0% Expected Value Table Possible States (Consequences) Decision 0 0 0 Total 0 $ - $ - $ - $ - Suggested Choice: 0 0 $ - $ - $ - $ - Signals Table Probability of Signal Given the State Signals 0 0 0 Total Neg FS 0% Steady FS 0% Pos FS 0% Revised Expected Value Table Decision Neg FS Steady FS Pos FS 0 Possible Potential New New New New New New States Payoff Probability Value Probability Value Probability Value 0 $ - #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 $ - #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 $ - #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Total #DIV/0! Total #DIV/0! Total #DIV/0! Decision Neg FS Steady FS Pos FS 0 Possible Potential New New New New New New States Payoff Probability Value Probability Value Probability Value 0 $ - #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 $ - #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 $ - #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Total #DIV/0! Total #DIV/0! Total #DIV/0! Suggested Choice: #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Value of the Financial Statements: New Max Return: #DIV/0! Original Max Return: $ - Max Value of FSs: #DIV/0! Revised Probabilities Table Signals Neg FS Steady FS Pos FS Possible P(x) Prior Signal Probability Probability Probability States Expectations Neg FS Steady FS Pos FS P(x) of Signal|State P(x) of Signal|State P(x) of Signal|State 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Product 0.00% Product 0.00% Product 0.00% New Probability of 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! Signals 0 0 0 Possible P(x) Prior Signal Probability Probability Probability States Expectations Neg FS Steady FS Pos FS P(x) of Signal|State P(x) of Signal|State P(x) of Signal|State 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Product 0.00% Product 0.00% Product 0.00% New Probability of 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! Signals 0 Decision 0 Possible P(x) Prior Signal Probability Probability Probability States Expectations Neg FS Steady FS Pos FS P(x) of Signal|State P(x) of Signal|State P(x) of Signal|State 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Product 0.00% Product 0.00% Product 0.00% New Probability of 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! Sum of the Probability of Each Signal * The Probability of Each State 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%