Bayes Theorem Template by blc15726

VIEWS: 23 PAGES: 3

									                                     Template: Bayes Theorem
Payoff Table                                                       Initial Expectations Table
               Possible States (Consequences)                                       Possible States (Consequences)
 Decision                                                            Decision         0            0           0
                                                                              0
                                                                              0           0%           0%          0%

Expected Value Table
             Possible States (Consequences)
 Decision      0            0          0              Total
         0 $     -     $      -    $      -         $     -                           Suggested Choice:            0
         0 $     -     $      -    $      -         $     -

Signals Table
            Probability of Signal Given the State
  Signals       0             0            0          Total
Neg FS                                                        0%
Steady FS                                                     0%
Pos FS                                                        0%
Revised Expected Value Table

Decision                                        Neg FS                 Steady FS                Pos FS
           0   Possible     Potential      New         New          New        New         New         New
                States        Payoff    Probability    Value     Probability   Value    Probability    Value
                          0 $     -      #DIV/0!      #DIV/0!     #DIV/0!     #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!      #DIV/0!
                          0 $     -      #DIV/0!      #DIV/0!     #DIV/0!     #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!      #DIV/0!
                          0 $     -      #DIV/0!      #DIV/0!     #DIV/0!     #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!      #DIV/0!
                                              Total   #DIV/0!         Total #DIV/0!          Total    #DIV/0!


Decision                                         Neg FS                Steady FS                 Pos FS
           0   Possible     Potential      New          New         New        New         New          New
                States        Payoff    Probability     Value    Probability   Value    Probability     Value
                          0 $     -      #DIV/0!       #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!     #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!      #DIV/0!
                          0 $     -      #DIV/0!       #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!     #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!      #DIV/0!
                          0 $     -      #DIV/0!       #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!     #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!      #DIV/0!
                                              Total #DIV/0!           Total #DIV/0!          Total #DIV/0!

                  Suggested Choice:                   #DIV/0!                 #DIV/0!                 #DIV/0!


Value of the Financial Statements:
                  New Max Return: #DIV/0!
               Original Max Return: $    -
                  Max Value of FSs: #DIV/0!
Revised Probabilities Table
                                                                                                    Signals
                                                                         Neg FS                    Steady FS                            Pos FS
 Possible      P(x) Prior          Signal                                   Probability                 Probability                        Probability
  States     Expectations Neg FS Steady FS      Pos FS         P(x)       of Signal|State     P(x)    of Signal|State         P(x)       of Signal|State

         0            0%       0%          0%       0%              0%                0%           0%                0%            0%                0%
                                                             Product               0.00%    Product               0.00%     Product               0.00%
                                    New Probability of               0        #DIV/0!               0        #DIV/0!                0        #DIV/0!

                                                                                                        Signals
                                                                           0                               0                              0
 Possible      P(x) Prior          Signal                                   Probability                     Probability                    Probability
  States     Expectations Neg FS Steady FS      Pos FS         P(x)       of Signal|State     P(x)        of Signal|State     P(x)       of Signal|State

         0            0%       0%          0%       0%           0%                   0%           0%                0%            0%                0%
                                                          Product                  0.00%    Product               0.00%     Product               0.00%
                                       New Probability of         0           #DIV/0!               0        #DIV/0!                0        #DIV/0!

                                                                                                      Signals
                                                                           0                         Decision                             0
 Possible      P(x) Prior          Signal                                   Probability                   Probability                      Probability
  States     Expectations Neg FS Steady FS      Pos FS         P(x)       of Signal|State     P(x)      of Signal|State       P(x)       of Signal|State

         0            0%       0%          0%       0%           0%                   0%           0%                0%            0%                0%
                                                          Product                  0.00%    Product               0.00%     Product               0.00%
                                       New Probability of         0           #DIV/0!               0        #DIV/0!                0        #DIV/0!

               Sum of the Probability of Each Signal * The
                                Probability of Each State                           0.00%                          0.00%                           0.00%

								
To top